Severe Thunderstorm Warning 237, NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1006 PM EDT WED JUN 17 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
A STATIONARY FRONT WILL REMAIN ACROSS OUR AREA THROUGH
TONIGHT...BEFORE LIFTING NORTH AS A WARM FRONT THURSDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA FROM THE SOUTH FRIDAY...THEN A COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS OUR AREA SATURDAY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD OVER THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A POTENT UPPER VORT LOBE IS MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE SW
PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING. MTN CONVECTION JUST AHEAD
OF THIS FEATURE WILL SOON REACH THE NC/GA/SC BORDER...SO WW 439 IS
BEING ALLOWED TO EXPIRE ON SCHEDULE. A STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
THREAT WILL EXIST IN THE SW MTNS UNTIL AROUND 1030 PM...BUT THIS
WILL BE HANDLED WITH LOCAL STATEMENTS OR WARNINGS IF NEEDED.

LAPS SFC CAPE VALUES OF 3000 OR BETTER ARE STILL INDICATED IN THE WW
441 AREA ACROSS NE GA AND THE WRN UPSTATE. THIS WATCH WILL NEED TO
RUN AT LEAST UNTIL 11 PM...AND POSSIBLY LONGER UNTIL THE UPPER VORT
LOBE PASSES AROUND MIDNIGHT.

ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPS AND POP TRENDS HAVE BEEN MADE
OTHERWISE FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

ON THURSDAY...A SURFACE BOUNDARY SHOULD PUSH EAST ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA EARLY IN THE DAY. THIS SHOULD TAKE CARE OF ANY
LINGERING CLOUDINESS ACROSS THE FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT. NW FLOW AND
PLENTY OF SUN WILL ALSO ALLOW TEMPS TO REBOUND BY AFTERNOON WITH
HIGHS MUCH WARMER THAN LAST SEVERAL DAYS. HAVE STAYED ON THE LOWER
END OF THE GUIDANCE FOR NOW...FIGURING THAT SOME OF THE HEAT WILL GO
TOWARD EVAPORATION. THE MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS AN OTHERWISE
SHOWER-FREE DAY...BUT I AM NOT CONVINCED. ANOTHER SHORT WAVE WILL
MOVE IN FROM THE NW IN THE AFTERNOON AND DIFFERENTIAL HEATING ACROSS
THE HIGHER TERRAIN IS NOT TO BE UNDERESTIMATED. STILL FEEL LIKE WE
SHOULD BE ABLE TO GENERATE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE MTNS IN
THE AFTERNOON...WITH SOME OF THEM MOVING OUT OVER THE FOOTHILLS AND
PIEDMONT LATE IN THE DAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...UPPER RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS EWD OVER THE
CWFA ON FRIDAY. GUIDANCE IS STILL BULLISH ON THE HEAT (ESPECIALLY
THE MAV)...WITH RECORD OR NEAR RECORD HIGHS ON FRIDAY AFTN (SEE
CLIMATE SECTION BELOW). HOWEVER...THE 12Z MET HAS COME IN A TAD
COOLER. IN ANY CASE...MODEL THICKNESSES SUPPORT MAX TEMPS IN THE
UPPER 90S (UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S MTNS). WITH SUCH A QUICK UPSWING
IN TEMPS FROM THURSDAY/S FCST HIGHS...AND THE WET SOIL MOISTURES...I
STILL THINK THE GOING FCST (WHICH IS A CATEGORY OR TWO COOLER THAN
THE LATEST MAV) LOOKS REASONABLE. ALSO...I BLENDED THE MOS FOR
DEWPTS...AS SOME DOWNSLOPE DRYING AND MIXING OF DRYING AIR ARND 800
MB SHOULD DROP DEWPTS INTO THE LOWER TO MID 60S. THE COMBINATION
STILL MANAGES TO PRODUCE HEAT INDEX VALUES AROUND 100 F. THE
GUIDANCE SHOWS NO QPF OVER THE AREA FRIDAY AFTN...AND I HAVE REMOVED
MENTION OF CONVECTION (EVEN THOUGH CAPES WILL BE HIGH). THERE WILL
BE AN NVA REGIME IN PLACE...AND A STRONG ENUF CAP TO PRECLUDE
CONVECTION.

SATURDAY IS A DIFFERENT STORY. A SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED LOW PRES
WAVE WILL DIVE SEWD INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION...FLATTENING THE
SOUTHEAST CONUS RIDGE. THE FCST SNDGS SHOW INCREASING SHEAR WITH A
BNDRY SAGGING SOUTH ACRS THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS AND MID ATLANTIC
STATES. THE NAM ACTUALLY HAS A CLUSTER OF ACTIVITY DIVE SOUTH THRU
OUR NC ZONES SATURDAY AFTN. THE GFS KEEPS ALL MCS ACTIVITY TO THE
NORTH. CONFIDENCE IS LOW DUE TO THE DISAGREEMENT...BUT I SIDED MORE
WITH THE NAM SINCE IT HAS BEEN GENERALLY BETTER WITH MCS ACTIVITY IN
THIS PATTERN. THIS WILL AFFECT CLOUD COVER AND MAX TEMPS (AGAIN I
WEIGHTED MORE NAM FOR THESE GRIDS). TEMPS SHOULD BE A CATEGORY OR
TWO COOLER THAN FRIDAY (EXCEPT IN THE UPPER SAVANNAH VALLEY AND
SOUTHERN UPSTATE SC.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 245 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...THE PATTERN EVOLUTION IN THE EXTENDED
PERIOD IS JUST PLAIN STRANGE (ESPECIALLY FOR LATE JUNE)...AS ALL THE
GUIDANCE IS IN DECENT AGREEMENT ON A DEVELOPING UPPER HIGH/UPPER LOW
COUPLET OVER THE CONUS. THE HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS STATES...AND THE LOW INVOF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. THERE IS
DISAGREEMENT ON HOW AMPLIFIED THIS PATTERN WILL GET. THE 00Z ECMWF
WAS VERY DEEP WITH THE LOW...RETROGRADING IT INTO CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS. THE 12Z GFS SHOWS A CLOSED LOW AS WELL...BUT KEEPS IT
OFFSHORE AND SHALLOWER. OVERALL...WITH WOULD KEEP OUR AREA IN A
CYCLONIC UPPER FLOW REGIME WITH NLY/NWLY FLOW THRU THE COLUMN. HPC
GENERALLY HAS GENERALLY CLIMO POPS/TEMPS FOR OUR AREA. GIVEN THE
UNCERTAINTY...I INITIALIZED WITH THE 12Z HPC GRIDS AND DID NOT MAKE
MAJOR CHANGES.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
CONVECTION WILL AFFECT MAINLY LOCATIONS FROM KAND TO KGSP OVER THE
NEXT FEW HOURS. A MORE SOLID RAIN/SHOWER SHIELD WILL EXTEND FROM
KAVL TO KHKY...WHERE ASSOCIATED CIGS AND VSBY WILL LIKELY BE LOWER.
IFR CONDITIONS APPEAR MOST LIKELY OVERNIGHT FROM KAVL TO KHKY TO
KCLT...WITH GENERALLY MVFR CONDITIONS DEVELOPING AT THE UPSTATE TAF
SITES. CONDITIONS WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE TO VFR THROUGH THE MORNING
HOURS THURSDAY...WITH SCATTERED CB CLOUDS ANTICIPATED DURING THE
AFTN. FLOW WILL BE GENERALLY WESTERLY...WITH SW WINDS AT KCLT NEAR A
LEE TROUGH.

OUTLOOK...DRIER HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION THU NIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL BRING A CHANCE OF TSTMS SATURDAY.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD HIGHS FOR FRIDAY JUNE 19TH:

ASHEVILLE (KAVL): 92 SET IN 1933
GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG AREA (KGSP): 98 SET IN 1944
CHARLOTTE METRO AREA (KCLT): 102 SET IN 1944

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...ARK
NEAR TERM...HG/PM
SHORT TERM...ARK
LONG TERM...ARK
AVIATION...HG/PM
CLIMATE...ARK

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
911 PM EDT WED JUN 17 2009

NCZ059-063-180200-
NORTHERN JACKSON-SOUTHERN JACKSON-
911 PM EDT WED JUN 17 2009

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT JACKSON COUNTY THROUGH 1000 PM
EDT...

AT 911 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR CULLOWHEE...OR 5 MILES SOUTHEAST OF SYLVA...
MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 30 MPH.

* OTHER LOCATIONS AFFECTED INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO LAKE
  THORPE...WOLF MOUNTAIN...WEBSTER...TUCKASEGEE...GAY...CULLOWHEE...
  CASHIERS AND BALSAM.

SMALL HAIL...AND WIND GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS
STORM.

HEAVY RAINS MAY FLOOD LOW LYING AREAS SUCH AS DITCHES AND
UNDERPASSES. AVOID THESE AREAS AND DO NOT CROSS FLOODED ROADS. WATER
LEVELS OF SMALL STREAMS AND RIVERS MAY ALSO RISE...THEREFORE SEEK
HIGHER GROUND IF THREATENED BY FLOOD WATERS.

INTENSE LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM. IF OUTDOORS...STAY
AWAY FROM ISOLATED HIGH OBJECTS SUCH AS TREES. MOVE INDOORS IF
POSSIBLE. WHEN INDOORS...STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS AND DOORS AND AVOID
USING TELEPHONES UNLESS IT IS AN EMERGENCY. TRY TO UNPLUG UNNECESSARY
ELECTRICAL APPLIANCES BEFORE THE THUNDERSTORM APPROACHES.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
947 PM EDT WED JUN 17 2009

NCZ064-180245-
TRANSYLVANIA-
947 PM EDT WED JUN 17 2009

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT TRANSYLVANIA COUNTY THROUGH 1045
PM EDT...

AT 946 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 7 MILES NORTH OF LAKE TOXAWAY...OR 10 MILES WEST
OF BREVARD...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 25 MPH.

* OTHER LOCATIONS AFFECTED INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO SAPPHIRE...
  ROSMAN...LAKE TOXAWAY...CEDAR MOUNTAIN AND BALSAM GROVE.

SMALL HAIL...AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS
STORM.

HEAVY RAINS MAY FLOOD LOW LYING AREAS SUCH AS DITCHES AND
UNDERPASSES. AVOID THESE AREAS AND DO NOT CROSS FLOODED ROADS. WATER
LEVELS OF SMALL STREAMS AND RIVERS MAY ALSO RISE...THEREFORE SEEK
HIGHER GROUND IF THREATENED BY FLOOD WATERS.

INTENSE LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM. IF OUTDOORS...STAY
AWAY FROM ISOLATED HIGH OBJECTS SUCH AS TREES. MOVE INDOORS IF
POSSIBLE. WHEN INDOORS...STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS AND DOORS AND AVOID
USING TELEPHONES UNLESS IT IS AN EMERGENCY. TRY TO UNPLUG UNNECESSARY
ELECTRICAL APPLIANCES BEFORE THE THUNDERSTORM APPROACHES.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1009 PM EDT WED JUN 17 2009

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0924 PM     HAIL             SENECA                  34.69N 82.96W
06/17/2009  E0.75 INCH       OCONEE             SC   BROADCAST MEDIA

            PENNY HAIL REPORTED IN SENECA.

&&

JPT

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