Severe Thunderstorm Warning 243, NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
257 PM EDT THU JUN 18 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILDS OVER THE AREA FROM THE SOUTH ON
FRIDAY...THEN A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS OUR AREA ON
SATURDAY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
LINE OF SVR STORMS JUST ACROSS THE TN BORDER WILL MOVE INTO THE MTNS
SHORTLY. THIS LINE SHOULD HOLD TOGETHER AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE MTNS
GIVEN THE ORGANIZATION AND MODERATE SHEAR OVER THE AREA. EVEN IF THE
LINE BRIEFLY DIMINISHES IN INTENSITY...IT SHOULD QUICKLY RE-INTENSIFY
AS IF MOVES INTO THE FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT GIVEN THE MODERATE TO
VERY UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE. DCAPE IS VERY HIGH AS WELL...OVER 1000
J/KG FOR MOST OF THE CWFA. FREEZING LEVELS ARE HIGH...BUT WET BULB
ZERO IS SIGNIFICANTLY LOWER GIVEN THE MID LEVEL DRY AIR.
THEREFORE...THE CHANCE OF SEVERE STORMS IS QUITE HIGH WITH DAMAGING
WINDS THE MAIN THREAT. SOME LARGE HAIL IS ALSO POSSIBLE. THE WATCH
MAY NEED TO BE EXPANDED OR LENGTHENED TO COVER THIS LINE AS IT MOVES
THRU. PRECIP CHANCES SHOULD DIMINISH RAPIDLY BEHIND THE LINE. NO POP
IS EXPECTED AFTER MIDNIGHT.

STRONG UPPER RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE AREA FRIDAY. THIS PUSHES THE
STORM TRACK TO OUR NORTH. THE MODELS STILL SHOW QUITE A BIT OF CAPE
OVER THE AREA WITH VERY WARM TEMPS AND ONLY SLIGHTLY LOWER DEW
POINTS. ONE WOULD THINK THAT INSTABILITY SHOULD BE MUCH LOWER DUE TO
THE BUILDING RIDGE. HOWEVER...MDL SOUNDINGS DO NOT SHOW AN EXPECTED
MID LEVEL SUBSIDENCE INVERSION. THAT SAID...DO NOT THINK THERE WILL
BE MUCH OF A TRIGGER WITH THE STORM TRACK MOVING NORTH. WILL LIMIT
POP TO SLIGHT CHC FOR THE NRN MTNS AND I-40 CORRIDOR. GUIDANCE HIGHS
ARE VERY WARM AS EXPECTED WITH THE INCREASING HEIGHTS AND
THICKNESSES. HOWEVER...MDLS HAVE BEEN TOO WARM RECENTLY.
ALSO...GROUND IS QUITE MOIST WITH THE RECENT RAINFALL. WITH SOME OF
THE HEATING GOING TO EVAPORATING THE MOISTURE...WILL UNDERCUT MOS
SLIGHTLY AND KEEP TEMPS IN THE LOW TO MID 90S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 205 PM EDT THU...THE MAIN SHORT TERM CONCERN WILL BE THE
HEAT...AS THE UPPER RIDGE MAINTAINS CONTROL OVER THE SOUTHEAST.
BROAD-SCALE SUBSIDENCE COMBINED WITH DOWNSLOPE FLOW WILL ALLOW TEMPS
TO SOAR TO NEAR THE CENTURY MARK ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE PIEDMONT SAT
AFTERNOON. DESPITE THE WARMING MID-LEVEL TEMPS...CONVECTION CANNOT
BE RULED OUT...PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN ZONES LATE SAT
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. THIS AREA WILL REMAIN CLOSE TO THE BAND
OF STRONGER WESTERLIES...AND NEAR THE TRACK OF ANY MCS ORIGINATING
FROM THE OHIO VALLEY. CHANCE POPS WILL BE CARRIED TO ACCOUNT FOR
THIS.

ALTHOUGH THE RIDGE BEGINS A RETREAT ON SUNDAY...MODEL GUIDANCE
MAINTAINS ANY SIGNIFICANT MID-LEVEL SW TROUGH ACTIVITY WELL TO THE
NORTH OF THE AREA. MEANWHILE...FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE RATHER
UNIMPRESSIVE. THEREFORE...OTHER THAN A SLIVER OF SLIGHT/LOW CHANCE
POPS ALONG THE TENN BORDER (ACCOUNTING FOR LOW LEVEL NORTHWEST
FLOW)...SUNDAY IS EXPECTED TO BE DRY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 220 PM EDT THU...THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS AGREE THAT AN UPPER
LOW WILL FORM EAST OF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH
THE RIDGE RETROGRADING TO THE LOWER MISS VALLEY. THIS LEAVES THE
CAROLINAS AND NORTH GEORGIA IN RELATIVELY DEEP/DRY NORTHERLY FLOW.
ALTHOUGH ISOLATED/WIDELY SCT DIURNAL CONVECTION CANNOT BE COMPLETELY
RULED OUT...ESP OVER THE MTNS...IT APPEARS THAT THIS WILL RESULT IN
A DRIER AND SLIGHTLY COOLER PATTERN.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MCS DROPPING TOWARD THE AREA SHOULD REMAIN IN TACT AND BRING A LINE
OF TSRA...SOME SEVERE...ACROSS THE CWFA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. MADE SOME MINOR CHANGES TO VCTS WORDING TO TAKE INTO
ACCOUNT CURRENT EXPECTED TIMING. WEST TO SOUTHWEST...NNW AT KAVL...
WINDS WILL CONTINUE AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM. WILL LIKELY BE AN INCREASE
IN WINDS AND WIND SHIFT WITH THE CONVECTION...BUT WILL HAVE TO AMD
AS IT MOVES IN TO MAKE SURE TIMING IS ACCURATE.

EXPECT RAPIDLY IMPROVING CONDITIONS BEHIND THE SYSTEM THIS EVENING.
WINDS SHOULD BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE. GUIDANCE ALL SHOWS VFR CIGS
WITH ONLY POSSIBLE MVFR FOG OVERNIGHT. THEREFORE...HAVE KEPT ALL
AREAS VFR FOR NOW...BUT LOWER CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE.

UPPER RIDGE BUILDS IN FRIDAY...MOVING STORM TRACK TO OUR NORTH. KHKY
HAS THE BEST CHC OF SEEING ANY CONVECTION...BUT CHC LOW FOR NOW. ANY
CU DEVELOPMENT WILL ALSO BE LATE IN THE DAY. LIGHT WEST TO NORTHWEST
WINDS DEVELOP WITH MIXING.

OUTLOOK...DRIER HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION THU NIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL BRING A CHANCE OF TSTMS SATURDAY
WITH DRY CONDITIONS TO FOLLOW AGAIN SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD HIGHS FOR FRIDAY JUNE 19TH:

ASHEVILLE (KAVL): 92 SET IN 1933
GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG AREA (KGSP): 98 SET IN 1944
CHARLOTTE METRO AREA (KCLT): 102 SET IN 1944

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...JDL
NEAR TERM...RWH
SHORT TERM...JDL
LONG TERM...JDL
AVIATION...RWH
CLIMATE...ARK

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1002 AM EDT THU JUN 18 2009

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0935 PM     TSTM WND DMG     FONTANA VILLAGE         35.44N 83.82W
06/17/2009                   GRAHAM             NC   DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

            NUMEROUS TREES DOWN THROUGHOUT THE AREA

&&

LG

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1011 AM EDT THU JUN 18 2009

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1027 PM     TSTM WND DMG     1 SW IVA                34.30N 82.68W
06/17/2009                   ANDERSON           SC   COUNTY OFFICIAL

            SEVERAL TREES DOWN ON PROJECT RD NEAR IVA

&&

PTANNER

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1014 AM EDT THU JUN 18 2009

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1015 PM     HAIL             6 W PICKENS             34.88N 82.81W
06/17/2009  E0.75 INCH       PICKENS            SC   CO-OP OBSERVER

            COCRAHS OBSERVER REPORTED 0.75 INCH HAIL

&&

PTANNER

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1044 AM EDT THU JUN 18 2009

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0643 PM     TSTM WND DMG     CLEMSON                 34.68N 82.81W
06/17/2009                   PICKENS            SC   DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

            NUMEROUS TREES DOWN

&&

LG

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
102 PM EDT THU JUN 18 2009

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1213 AM     TSTM WND DMG     4 ESE CORNELIA          34.49N 83.46W
06/18/2009                   HABERSHAM          GA   DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

            COUPLE TREES BLOWN DOWN

&&

LG

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
117 PM EDT THU JUN 18 2009

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1051 PM     TSTM WND DMG     5 N CLAYTON             34.95N 83.40W
06/17/2009                   RABUN              GA   DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

            FEW TREES DOWN

&&

LG