Storm Warning 16, NWS Anchorage, AK

000 
FZAK51 PAFC 161307 CCA
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA...CORRECTED
410 AM AKST FRI JAN 16 2009

CORRECTED ZONE 140

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND AND COOK INLET.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-170300-
400 AM AKST FRI JAN 16 2009
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...
A 960 MB LOW 225 NM SOUTH CHIGNIK WILL MOVE INLAND NEAR CAPE NEWENHAM
AT 950 MB FRI AFTERNOON. A WEATHER FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
NORTHERN GULF DURING THE DAY ON FRI. A DEVELOPING LOW 400 NM SOUTH OF
KODIAK WILL MOVE TO 125 NM SOUTHEAST OF KODIAK AT 985 MB SAT NIGHT. 
$$

PKZ120-170300-
CAPE SUCKLING TO GORE POINT
400 AM AKST FRI JAN 16 2009

...STORM WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...E WIND INCREASING TO 55 KT IN THE MORNING. SEAS BUILDING TO
22 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...S WIND 30 KT. NEAR THE COAST E OF MONTAGUE ISLAND...SE
WIND 40 KT. SEAS 21 FT. RAIN.
.SAT...SE WIND 20 KT. NEAR THE COAST E OF MONTAGUE ISLAND...SE WIND
25 KT BECOMING E 35 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 16 FT. RAIN.
.SAT NIGHT...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.SUN...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.MON...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.TUE...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  
$$

PKZ121-170300-
RESURRECTION BAY
400 AM AKST FRI JAN 16 2009

.TODAY...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS S OF CAINES
HEAD. RAIN. 
.TONIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN. 
.SAT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN. 
.SAT NIGHT AND SUN...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.MON AND TUE...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  
$$

PKZ125-170300-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND
400 AM AKST FRI JAN 16 2009

...STORM WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...E WIND 35 KT INCREASING TO SE 50 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 9
FT BUILDING TO 12 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 45 KT DIMINISHING TO 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 11
FT SUBSIDING TO 6 FT. RAIN.
.SAT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN.
.SAT NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SUN...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.MON...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.TUE...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  
$$

PKZ129-170300-
PASSAGE CANAL
400 AM AKST FRI JAN 16 2009

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...E WIND 35 KT INCREASING TO 45 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
7 FT. RAIN. 
.TONIGHT...E WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT BY MIDNIGHT. SEAS 6 FT
SUBSIDING TO 4 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.SAT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.SAT NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SUN AND MON...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TUE...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  
$$

PKZ130-170300-
BARREN ISLANDS AND KAMISHAK BAY WATERS
400 AM AKST FRI JAN 16 2009

...STORM WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...E WIND 55 KT BECOMING S 40 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 22 FT.
RAIN.
.TONIGHT...S WIND 40 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
20 FT. 
.SAT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.SUN...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.MON...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.TUE...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 8 FT.  
$$

PKZ132-170300-
SHUYAK ISLAND TO SITKINAK
400 AM AKST FRI JAN 16 2009

...STORM WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND 55 KT BECOMING S 45 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
27 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...S WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 22
FT. 
.SAT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.SUN...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.MON...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.TUE...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT.  
$$

PKZ138-170300-
SHELIKOF STRAIT
400 AM AKST FRI JAN 16 2009

...STORM WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 50 KT BECOMING SE IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 13 FT
SUBSIDING TO 10 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...S WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
10 FT SUBSIDING TO 7 FT. 
.SAT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT AND SUN...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.MON...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TUE...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT.  
$$

PKZ140-170300-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KAMISHAK BAY AND ENGLISH BAY
400 AM AKST FRI JAN 16 2009

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NE WIND 40 KT BECOMING SE IN THE AFTERNOON. GUSTS TO 75 KT
OUT OF TURNAGAIN ARM. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 10 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 40 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS IN
ICE FREE WATERS 8 FT. 
.SAT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 5 FT. 
.SUN AND MON...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT. 
.TUE...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 6 FT.  
$$

PKZ141-170300-
KACHEMAK BAY
400 AM AKST FRI JAN 16 2009

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...E WIND 45 KT BECOMING SE 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 7 FT.
RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN.
.SAT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN.
.SAT NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SUN AND MON...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TUE...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  
$$

000 
FZAK51 PAFC 170016
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 PM AKST FRI JAN 16 2009

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND AND COOK INLET.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-171500-
400 PM AKST FRI JAN 16 2009
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...
A WEATHER FRONT OVER THE CENTRAL GULF WILL WEAKEN OVER THE EASTERN
GULF SAT MORNING. A DEVELOPING LOW OVER THE CENTRAL PACIFIC WILL MOVE
TO NEAR KODIAK ISLAND AND STRENGTHEN TO 993 MB SUN AFTERNOON.
$$

PKZ120-171500-
CAPE SUCKLING TO GORE POINT
400 PM AKST FRI JAN 16 2009

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 45 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 18
FT SUBSIDING. 
.SAT...SE WIND 15 KT EXCEPT E 25 KT NEAR THE COAST E OF MONTAGUE
ISLAND. SEAS 12 FT SUBSIDING. RAIN.
.SAT NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. NEAR THE COAST E OF MONTAGUE ISLAND...SE
WIND 20 KT BECOMING E 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 14 FT. RAIN.
.SUN...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.MON...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.TUE...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 9 FT.  

$$

PKZ121-171500-
RESURRECTION BAY
400 PM AKST FRI JAN 16 2009

..GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NEAR SEWARD...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
NEAR PILOT ROCK...EAST WIND 40 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT TOWARD
MORNING. SEAS 10 FT SUBSIDING. RAIN.
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.SAT NIGHT...NORTH WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. SNOW.
.SUN...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.MON...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TUE...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.WED...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ125-171500-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND
400 PM AKST FRI JAN 16 2009

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KTS OUT OF EASTERN BAYS AND
PASSES. WINDS DIMINISHING TO E 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 6 FT
SUBSIDING. RAIN.
.SAT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.SAT NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN.
.SUN...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TUE...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.WED...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ129-171500-
PASSAGE CANAL
400 PM AKST FRI JAN 16 2009

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT TOWARD MORNING. SEAS 3
FT SUBSIDING. RAIN.
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.SAT NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.SUN...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.MON...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TUE...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.WED...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ130-171500-
BARREN ISLANDS AND KAMISHAK BAY WATERS
400 PM AKST FRI JAN 16 2009

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 40 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
18 FT SUBSIDING. 
.SAT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
10 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SUN...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.MON...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.TUE...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS 14 FT.  

$$

PKZ132-171500-
SHUYAK ISLAND TO SITKINAK
400 PM AKST FRI JAN 16 2009

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
20 FT SUBSIDING. 
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
10 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. 
.SUN...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.MON...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.TUE...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 45 KT. SEAS 14 FT.  

$$

PKZ138-171500-
SHELIKOF STRAIT
400 PM AKST FRI JAN 16 2009

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
11 FT. 
.SAT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT BECOMING NE 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 5 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SUN...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.MON...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TUE...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  

$$

PKZ140-171500-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KAMISHAK BAY AND ENGLISH BAY
400 PM AKST FRI JAN 16 2009

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 35 KT BECOMING S 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. N OF
KALGIN ISLAND...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 7 FT. RAIN.
.SAT...S WIND 20 KT IN THE MORNING BECOMING VARIABLE 10 KT. SEAS IN
ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.SAT NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT BECOMING NE 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT. SNOW. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SUN...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 5 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 3 FT.
.MON...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 3 FT. 
.TUE...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 3 FT. 
.WED...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ141-171500-
KACHEMAK BAY
400 PM AKST FRI JAN 16 2009

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN.
.SAT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN.
.SAT NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT BECOMING NE 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 3 FT. SNOW AND RAIN.
.SUN...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TUE...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
500 PM AKST THU JAN 15 2009

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
THE GFS AND NAM MODEL ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT AND CONSISTENT WITH THE
PREVIOUS RUN. THE NEW EUROPEAN MODEL HAS DIVERGED FROM THE PREVIOUS
SOLUTION BY MOVING THE NEXT LOW A LITTLE SLOWER AND A LITTLE FURTHER
WEST. WE STILL PREFER THE GFS SOLUTION.

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
A STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW EXTENDS FROM THE CENTRAL PACIFIC NORTHWARD
THROUGH MAINLAND ALASKA AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT. A SEMI-STATIONARY
WEATHER FRONT WITH MULTIPLE SHORTWAVE WILL REMAIN OVER THE GULF OF
ALASKA THROUGH SATURDAY. THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA HAS EASED A BIT SINCE WEDNESDAY NIGHT, THOUGH
THERE STILL AREAS OF GUSTY WINDS FUNNELING THROUGH CHANNELED TERRAIN.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...
UPPER AIR...AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL BERING SEA WILL MOVE
INTO THE EASTERN BERING AND THE UPPER RIDGE OVER SOUTHEAST ALASKA
WILL MOVE INTO WESTERN CANADA SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL SHIFT THE
MAIN CORE OF THE SOUTHERLY FLOW FROM THE WESTERN GULF INTO THE
EASTERN GULF. A SHORTWAVE SOUTH OF THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS WILL MOVE
INTO BRISTOL BAY FRIDAY THEN INTO KOTZEBUE SOUND FRIDAY NIGHT.

AT THE SURFACE...
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA AND THE GULF...SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER THE GULF AND
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH A STEADY STREAM OF RAIN
ONTO THE CENTRAL GULF COAST AND PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND AND RAIN SHOWERS
ELSEWHERE THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. A STRONG LOW MOVING INTO SOUTHWEST
ALASKA FRIDAY WILL INTENSIFY THE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND INCREASE WINDS
AGAIN THROUGH CHANNELED TERRAIN AND ALONG THE CENTRAL GULF COAST.
ANOTHER MODERATE WILL MOVE INTO THE GULF OF ALASKA SATURDAY AND WILL
BRING MORE WIND AND RAIN TO THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN GULF COAST.

SOUTHWEST ALASKA...A DEVELOPING LOW OVER THE NORTH PACIFIC WILL
DEEPEN RAPIDLY AND MOVE NORTH INTO THE AREA FRIDAY EVENING AND MOVE
INTO THE BEAUFORT SEA SATURDAY. RAIN AND STRONG WINDS WILL MOVE INTO
THE BRISTOL BAY ZONE, KUSKOKWIM VALLEY AND EASTERN KUSKOKWIM DELTA
FRIDAY. BLIZZARD CONDITIONS MAY REDEVELOP ALONG THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA
COAST FRIDAY. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS INTO WESTERN BRISTOL BAY AND THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA SATURDAY.

THE BERING SEA AND ALEUTIANS...THE STRONG NORTHERLY FLOW WILL
DIMINISH FRIDAY NIGHT AS A SHORTWAVE OVER SIBERIA MOVES SOUTH AND
FORM A WEAK LOW OVER THE CENTRAL BERING SATURDAY. WINDS OVER THE
EASTERN BERING WILL INTENSIFY FRIDAY WITH THE LOW MOVING THROUGH
WESTERN ALASKA AND BLOWING SNOW WILL TO AFFECT THE PRIBILOFS THROUGH
FRIDAY EVENING.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...
THE MAIN CORE OF SOUTH WINDS ALOFT AND AT THE SURFACE WILL CONTINUE
TO MOVE EAST INTO SOUTHEAST ALASKA AND WESTERN CANADA BY MONDAY.
COLDER AIR OFF THE BERING WILL GRADUALLY SPREAD TO THE REST OF
SOUTHERN ALASKA BY MONDAY.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...BLIZZARD WARNING FOR THE PRIBILOFS.
         HIGH WIND WARNING FOR TURNAGAIN ARM.
MARINE...STORM 120, 125, 130, 132, 138, 150
         GALE 129, 140, 141, 155, 160, 165, 170, 171, 172, 179, 180
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

NM JAN 09