Storm Warning 3, NWS Anchorage, AK

000 
FZAK61 PAFC 161248
OFFAER

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
400 AM AKST FRI JAN 16 2009

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE GULF OF ALASKA WEST OF 144W

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ399-170300-
400 AM AKST FRI JAN 16 2009
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA...
A 960 MB LOW NEAR 52N 157W WILL MOVE INLAND NEAR 59N 162W AT 950 MB
FRI AFTERNOON A WEATHER FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHERN GULF
FRI. A DEVELOPING LOW NEAR 51N 151W WILL MOVE TO NEAR 56N 151W AT 985
MB SAT NIGHT.
$$

PKZ351-170300-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE NORTH OF 57N AND WEST OF 144W
400 AM AKST FRI JAN 16 2009

...STORM WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND 50 KT BECOMING S 35 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
23 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...S WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
21 FT. 
.SAT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.SUN...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.MON...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.TUE...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT.  
$$

PKZ352-170300-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE SOUTH OF 57N NORTH OF 55N AND WEST OF
144W
400 AM AKST FRI JAN 16 2009

...STORM WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND 55 KT BECOMING S 40 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
26 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...S WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
21 FT. 
.SAT...E WIND 20 KT INCREASING TO 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
16 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.SUN...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.MON...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.TUE...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT.  
$$

000 
FZAK61 PAFC 170017
OFFAER

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
400 PM AKST FRI JAN 16 2009

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE GULF OF ALASKA WEST OF 144W

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ399-171500-
400 PM AKST FRI JAN 16 2009
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA...
A WEATHER FRONT OVER THE CENTRAL GULF WILL WEAKEN OVER THE EASTERN
GULF SAT MORNING. A DEVELOPING LOW OVER THE CENTRAL PACIFIC WILL MOVE
TO NEAR 59N 153W ISLAND AND STRENGTHEN TO 993 MB SUN AFTERNOON.
$$

PKZ351-171500-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE NORTH OF 57N AND WEST OF 144W
400 PM AKST FRI JAN 16 2009

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT DININISHING TO S 20 KT BY MIDNIGHT. SEAS 20
FT SUBSIDING. 
.SAT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. RAIN.
.SUN...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.MON...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.TUE...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS 15 FT.  

$$

PKZ352-171500-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE SOUTH OF 57N NORTH OF 55N AND WEST OF
144W
400 PM AKST FRI JAN 16 2009

.TONIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 22 FT. 
.SAT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.SUN...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.MON...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.TUE...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.WED...SE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 17 FT.  

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
450 AM AKST THU JAN 15 2009

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED ALONG 170W WITH
MULTIPLE LOWS CIRCULATING AROUND IT. ONE SUCH LOW IS CURRENTLY NEAR
BETHEL MOVING NORTH WITH A FRONT STRETCHING ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF.
A SECONDARY LOW FURTHER SOUTH NEAR 52N 153W WILL BE THE NEXT PLAYER
LATER TODAY.

.MODEL DISCUSSION...ALL MODELS HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THE BIG
PICTURE...WITH THE GFS PREFERRED IN THE SHORT TERM DUE TO
CONSISTENCY. BY LATE IN THE WEEKEND...THE ECMWF MODEL HAS BEEN MORE
CONSISTENT AND THUS WE HAVE TRENDED TOWARD ITS SOLUTION OUT THROUGH
MID-WEEK.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVING THROUGH SOUTHCENTRAL
WILL CONTINUE ITS NORTHWARD TRACK WITH SLIGHTLY DECREASING WINDS IN
ITS WAKE. THE NEXT LOW CURRENTLY A COUPLE HUNDRED MILES SOUTH OF COLD
BAY WILL MOVE NORTH AROUND THE MAIN ANCHOR LOW AND GET ABSORBED INTO
A TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING FROM THAT ANCHOR LOW TOWARD THE BERING
STRAIT. A WEAK FRONT STRETCHING EAST FROM THIS LOW WILL MOVE THROUGH
THE GULF TIGHTENING THE GRADIENT ONCE MORE. WINDS WILL NOT BE AS
STRONG AS THIS MORNING...BUT STILL VERY GUSTY. BEHIND THIS TROUGH IN
THE EASTERN BERING...STRONG WINDS OFF THE ICE PACK IS HELPING TO FUEL
CONTINUED BLIZZARD CONDITIONS IN THE PRIBILOFS.

AS THE MAIN ANCHOR LOW SOUTH OF THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS BEGINS TO SHIFT
NORTH AND EAST...ONE FINAL...AND STRONG SFC LOW WILL DEVELOP LATE
TONIGHT. THIS LOW (BOMBING OUT AROUND 955 MB)...ACCOMPANIED BY A 140
KT JET WILL TAKE A PATH REMINISCENT OF ITS PREDECESSORS. THIS SPELLS
MORE OF THE SAME...NAMELY ANOTHER HIGH WIND EVENT ALONG TURNAGAIN ARM
AND HIGHER ELEVATIONS (POSSIBLY EXCEEDING 100 MPH...AGAIN) FRI
AFTERNOON WITH HEAVY RAINS FOR COASTAL LOCATIONS. FLOOD ADVISORIES
HAVE BEEN ISSUED CONCERNING BOTH RAIN AND MELTING SNOW FOR THE KENAI
PENINSULA.

ONCE THIS LOW LIFTS INTO NORTHERN ALASKA...COOLER AIR FILTERS INTO SW
ALASKA TURING ANY LEFT OVER RAIN BACK TO SNOW. A TROUGH
RE-ESTABLISHES ITSELF IN THE BERING KEEPING SW ALASKA COOL WHILE
MAINTAINING SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER SOUTHCENTRAL.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...THE BERING SEA TROUGH MOVES LITTLE THROUGH AT
LEAST MID-WEEK AS A RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE YUKON. STORM SYSTEMS LOOK
TO STAY OUT WEST WITH RELATIVELY QUIET WEATHER AND SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES ACROSS SOUTHCENTRAL.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...BLIZZARD WARNING 195.
         BLIZZARD WATCH 155.
         HIGH WIND WARNING 101.
MARINE...STORM WARNING 120 125 130 132 138 150 351.
         GALE WARNING 129 140 141 155 160 165 170 171 172 175 179 180
                      352 412 413 414.
         HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING 179 412 414.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

JCA