Small Craft Advisory 60, NWS Anchorage, AK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
450 AM AKST THU JAN 15 2009

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED ALONG 170W WITH
MULTIPLE LOWS CIRCULATING AROUND IT. ONE SUCH LOW IS CURRENTLY NEAR
BETHEL MOVING NORTH WITH A FRONT STRETCHING ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF.
A SECONDARY LOW FURTHER SOUTH NEAR 52N 153W WILL BE THE NEXT PLAYER
LATER TODAY.

.MODEL DISCUSSION...ALL MODELS HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THE BIG
PICTURE...WITH THE GFS PREFERRED IN THE SHORT TERM DUE TO
CONSISTENCY. BY LATE IN THE WEEKEND...THE ECMWF MODEL HAS BEEN MORE
CONSISTENT AND THUS WE HAVE TRENDED TOWARD ITS SOLUTION OUT THROUGH
MID-WEEK.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVING THROUGH SOUTHCENTRAL
WILL CONTINUE ITS NORTHWARD TRACK WITH SLIGHTLY DECREASING WINDS IN
ITS WAKE. THE NEXT LOW CURRENTLY A COUPLE HUNDRED MILES SOUTH OF COLD
BAY WILL MOVE NORTH AROUND THE MAIN ANCHOR LOW AND GET ABSORBED INTO
A TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING FROM THAT ANCHOR LOW TOWARD THE BERING
STRAIT. A WEAK FRONT STRETCHING EAST FROM THIS LOW WILL MOVE THROUGH
THE GULF TIGHTENING THE GRADIENT ONCE MORE. WINDS WILL NOT BE AS
STRONG AS THIS MORNING...BUT STILL VERY GUSTY. BEHIND THIS TROUGH IN
THE EASTERN BERING...STRONG WINDS OFF THE ICE PACK IS HELPING TO FUEL
CONTINUED BLIZZARD CONDITIONS IN THE PRIBILOFS.

AS THE MAIN ANCHOR LOW SOUTH OF THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS BEGINS TO SHIFT
NORTH AND EAST...ONE FINAL...AND STRONG SFC LOW WILL DEVELOP LATE
TONIGHT. THIS LOW (BOMBING OUT AROUND 955 MB)...ACCOMPANIED BY A 140
KT JET WILL TAKE A PATH REMINISCENT OF ITS PREDECESSORS. THIS SPELLS
MORE OF THE SAME...NAMELY ANOTHER HIGH WIND EVENT ALONG TURNAGAIN ARM
AND HIGHER ELEVATIONS (POSSIBLY EXCEEDING 100 MPH...AGAIN) FRI
AFTERNOON WITH HEAVY RAINS FOR COASTAL LOCATIONS. FLOOD ADVISORIES
HAVE BEEN ISSUED CONCERNING BOTH RAIN AND MELTING SNOW FOR THE KENAI
PENINSULA.

ONCE THIS LOW LIFTS INTO NORTHERN ALASKA...COOLER AIR FILTERS INTO SW
ALASKA TURING ANY LEFT OVER RAIN BACK TO SNOW. A TROUGH
RE-ESTABLISHES ITSELF IN THE BERING KEEPING SW ALASKA COOL WHILE
MAINTAINING SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER SOUTHCENTRAL.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...THE BERING SEA TROUGH MOVES LITTLE THROUGH AT
LEAST MID-WEEK AS A RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE YUKON. STORM SYSTEMS LOOK
TO STAY OUT WEST WITH RELATIVELY QUIET WEATHER AND SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES ACROSS SOUTHCENTRAL.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...BLIZZARD WARNING 195.
         BLIZZARD WATCH 155.
         HIGH WIND WARNING 101.
MARINE...STORM WARNING 120 125 130 132 138 150 351.
         GALE WARNING 129 140 141 155 160 165 170 171 172 175 179 180
                      352 412 413 414.
         HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING 179 412 414.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

JCA