Gale Warning 76, NWS Anchorage, AK

000 
FZAK51 PAFC 161255
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 AM AKST FRI JAN 16 2009

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND AND COOK INLET.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-170300-
400 AM AKST FRI JAN 16 2009
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...
A 960 MB LOW 225 NM SOUTH CHIGNIK WILL MOVE INLAND NEAR CAPE NEWENHAM
AT 950 MB FRI AFTERNOON. A WEATHER FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
NORTHERN GULF DURING THE DAY ON FRI. A DEVELOPING LOW 400 NM SOUTH OF
KODIAK WILL MOVE TO 125 NM SOUTHEAST OF KODIAK AT 985 MB SAT NIGHT. 
$$

PKZ120-170300-
CAPE SUCKLING TO GORE POINT
400 AM AKST FRI JAN 16 2009

...STORM WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...E WIND INCREASING TO 55 KT IN THE MORNING. SEAS BUILDING TO
22 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...S WIND 30 KT. NEAR THE COAST E OF MONTAGUE ISLAND...SE
WIND 40 KT. SEAS 21 FT. RAIN.
.SAT...SE WIND 20 KT. NEAR THE COAST E OF MONTAGUE ISLAND...SE WIND
25 KT BECOMING E 35 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 16 FT. RAIN.
.SAT NIGHT...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.SUN...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.MON...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.TUE...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  
$$

PKZ121-170300-
RESURRECTION BAY
400 AM AKST FRI JAN 16 2009

.TODAY...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS S OF CAINES
HEAD. RAIN. 
.TONIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN. 
.SAT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN. 
.SAT NIGHT AND SUN...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.MON AND TUE...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  
$$

PKZ125-170300-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND
400 AM AKST FRI JAN 16 2009

...STORM WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...E WIND 35 KT INCREASING TO SE 50 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 9
FT BUILDING TO 12 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 45 KT DIMINISHING TO 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 11
FT SUBSIDING TO 6 FT. RAIN.
.SAT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN.
.SAT NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SUN...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.MON...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.TUE...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  
$$

PKZ129-170300-
PASSAGE CANAL
400 AM AKST FRI JAN 16 2009

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...E WIND 35 KT INCREASING TO 45 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
7 FT. RAIN. 
.TONIGHT...E WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT BY MIDNIGHT. SEAS 6 FT
SUBSIDING TO 4 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.SAT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.SAT NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SUN AND MON...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TUE...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  
$$

PKZ130-170300-
BARREN ISLANDS AND KAMISHAK BAY WATERS
400 AM AKST FRI JAN 16 2009

...STORM WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...E WIND 55 KT BECOMING S 40 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 22 FT.
RAIN.
.TONIGHT...S WIND 40 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
20 FT. 
.SAT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.SUN...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.MON...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.TUE...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 8 FT.  
$$

PKZ132-170300-
SHUYAK ISLAND TO SITKINAK
400 AM AKST FRI JAN 16 2009

...STORM WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND 55 KT BECOMING S 45 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
27 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...S WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 22
FT. 
.SAT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.SUN...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.MON...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.TUE...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT.  
$$

PKZ138-170300-
SHELIKOF STRAIT
400 AM AKST FRI JAN 16 2009

...STORM WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 50 KT BECOMING SE IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 13 FT
SUBSIDING TO 10 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...S WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
10 FT SUBSIDING TO 7 FT. 
.SAT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT AND SUN...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.MON...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TUE...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT.  
$$

PKZ140-170300-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KAMISHAK BAY AND ENGLISH BAY
400 AM AKST FRI JAN 16 2009

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NE WIND 40 KT BECOMING SE IN THE AFTERNOON. GUSTS TO 75 KT
OUT OF TURNAGAIN ARM. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 10S FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 40 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS IN
ICE FREE WATERS 8 FT. 
.SAT...E WIND 20 KT EXCEPT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 5 FT. 
.SUN AND MON...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT. 
.TUE...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 6 FT.  
$$

PKZ141-170300-
KACHEMAK BAY
400 AM AKST FRI JAN 16 2009

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...E WIND 45 KT BECOMING SE 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 7 FT.
RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN.
.SAT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN.
.SAT NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SUN AND MON...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TUE...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  
$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
450 AM AKST THU JAN 15 2009

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED ALONG 170W WITH
MULTIPLE LOWS CIRCULATING AROUND IT. ONE SUCH LOW IS CURRENTLY NEAR
BETHEL MOVING NORTH WITH A FRONT STRETCHING ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF.
A SECONDARY LOW FURTHER SOUTH NEAR 52N 153W WILL BE THE NEXT PLAYER
LATER TODAY.

.MODEL DISCUSSION...ALL MODELS HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THE BIG
PICTURE...WITH THE GFS PREFERRED IN THE SHORT TERM DUE TO
CONSISTENCY. BY LATE IN THE WEEKEND...THE ECMWF MODEL HAS BEEN MORE
CONSISTENT AND THUS WE HAVE TRENDED TOWARD ITS SOLUTION OUT THROUGH
MID-WEEK.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVING THROUGH SOUTHCENTRAL
WILL CONTINUE ITS NORTHWARD TRACK WITH SLIGHTLY DECREASING WINDS IN
ITS WAKE. THE NEXT LOW CURRENTLY A COUPLE HUNDRED MILES SOUTH OF COLD
BAY WILL MOVE NORTH AROUND THE MAIN ANCHOR LOW AND GET ABSORBED INTO
A TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING FROM THAT ANCHOR LOW TOWARD THE BERING
STRAIT. A WEAK FRONT STRETCHING EAST FROM THIS LOW WILL MOVE THROUGH
THE GULF TIGHTENING THE GRADIENT ONCE MORE. WINDS WILL NOT BE AS
STRONG AS THIS MORNING...BUT STILL VERY GUSTY. BEHIND THIS TROUGH IN
THE EASTERN BERING...STRONG WINDS OFF THE ICE PACK IS HELPING TO FUEL
CONTINUED BLIZZARD CONDITIONS IN THE PRIBILOFS.

AS THE MAIN ANCHOR LOW SOUTH OF THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS BEGINS TO SHIFT
NORTH AND EAST...ONE FINAL...AND STRONG SFC LOW WILL DEVELOP LATE
TONIGHT. THIS LOW (BOMBING OUT AROUND 955 MB)...ACCOMPANIED BY A 140
KT JET WILL TAKE A PATH REMINISCENT OF ITS PREDECESSORS. THIS SPELLS
MORE OF THE SAME...NAMELY ANOTHER HIGH WIND EVENT ALONG TURNAGAIN ARM
AND HIGHER ELEVATIONS (POSSIBLY EXCEEDING 100 MPH...AGAIN) FRI
AFTERNOON WITH HEAVY RAINS FOR COASTAL LOCATIONS. FLOOD ADVISORIES
HAVE BEEN ISSUED CONCERNING BOTH RAIN AND MELTING SNOW FOR THE KENAI
PENINSULA.

ONCE THIS LOW LIFTS INTO NORTHERN ALASKA...COOLER AIR FILTERS INTO SW
ALASKA TURING ANY LEFT OVER RAIN BACK TO SNOW. A TROUGH
RE-ESTABLISHES ITSELF IN THE BERING KEEPING SW ALASKA COOL WHILE
MAINTAINING SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER SOUTHCENTRAL.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...THE BERING SEA TROUGH MOVES LITTLE THROUGH AT
LEAST MID-WEEK AS A RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE YUKON. STORM SYSTEMS LOOK
TO STAY OUT WEST WITH RELATIVELY QUIET WEATHER AND SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES ACROSS SOUTHCENTRAL.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...BLIZZARD WARNING 195.
         BLIZZARD WATCH 155.
         HIGH WIND WARNING 101.
MARINE...STORM WARNING 120 125 130 132 138 150 351.
         GALE WARNING 129 140 141 155 160 165 170 171 172 175 179 180
                      352 412 413 414.
         HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING 179 412 414.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

JCA