Severe Thunderstorm Warning 426, NWS Tulsa, OK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
347 PM CDT SUN JUN 15 2008

.DISCUSSION...
MISSOURI PORTION OF THE MCS CONTINUES TO PLOW SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON
BUT ACTIVITY HAS BEEN SLOW TO DEVELOP ON THE WESTERN FLANK OF THE
SYSTEM BACK INTO KANSAS. NEVERTHELESS...THERE IS STILL A STRONG
SIGNAL IN THE MODELS FOR VIGOROUS CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ACROSS
EAST CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS WHICH
WILL THEN ADVANCE SOUTH INTO NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST
ARKANSAS. THE INSTABILITY AXIS RUNS ROUGHLY ALONG U.S. HIGHWAY 75
WITH CAPE VALUES OF 4000-5000 J/KG. LARGE HAIL WILL BE A CONCERN
INITIALLY EARLY THIS EVENING WITH A QUICK TRANSITION TO A DAMAGING
WIND EVENT AS COLD POOL DEVELOPMENT OCCURS. MAY SEE MCS PLOW
THROUGH THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT BUT UNCERTAINTY
INCREASES TO THE SOUTH SO WILL TAPER POPS OFF TO THE SOUTH FOR
NOW. CURRENT FLASH FLOOD WATCH LOOKS GOOD.

BEYOND TONIGHT...DID NOT DEVIATE TOO FAR FROM GUIDANCE. GENERALLY
BLENDED GUIDANCE POPS THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS AS GREAT UNCERTAINTY
EXISTS ON LOCATION OF FUTURE MCS DEVELOPMENT. IF A POWERFUL MCS
PLOWS THROUGH OUR ENTIRE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT...THIS MAY WELL
PRECLUDE DEVELOPMENT IN OUR AREA OVER THE FOLLOWING 24 HOURS OR
SO. LIKEWISE DID NOT STRAY MUCH FROM THE GFS MOS GUIDANCE IN THE
EXTENDED. DID RAISE POPS A BIT IN THE THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY
TIMEFRAME AS BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF SUGGEST THIS MAY BE THE BEST
SHOT AT AN MCS AFFECTING A LARGE PORTION OF OUR FORECAST AREA IN
THE EXTENDED PERIODS. UPPER RIDGE BUILDS A BIT MORE STRONGLY OVER
THE AREA BY NEXT WEEKEND WHICH MAY FINALLY CUT OFF RAIN CHANCES
AND ALLOW THE HEAT TO BUILD BACK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   67  86  66  83 /  80  50  30  50
FSM   68  88  66  85 /  70  40  40  50
MLC   69  89  68  84 /  40  30  40  40
BVO   66  84  63  83 /  90  50  30  50
FYV   64  82  60  80 /  80  50  40  40
BYV   63  80  60  79 /  80  50  40  20
MKO   68  87  66  82 /  70  40  30  50
MIO   64  82  61  81 /  90  50  20  30
F10   68  88  67  82 /  60  40  40  50
HHW   71  91  69  86 /  30  30  30  40

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 7 PM SUNDAY TO 7 AM MONDAY FOR OKZ054-
     OKZ055-OKZ056-OKZ057-OKZ058-OKZ059-OKZ060-OKZ061-OKZ062-
     OKZ063-OKZ064-OKZ066-OKZ067-OKZ068-OKZ069-OKZ070-OKZ072.

AR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 7 PM SUNDAY TO 7 AM MONDAY FOR ARZ001-
     ARZ002-ARZ010-ARZ011-ARZ019-ARZ020-ARZ029.

&&

SHORT TERM...17
LONG TERM....05

PLATE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
637 PM CDT SUN JUN 15 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0633 PM     HAIL             2 SW PEORIA             36.89N 94.70W
06/15/2008  E0.88 INCH       OTTAWA             OK   EMERGENCY MNGR

&&

PBS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
709 PM CDT SUN JUN 15 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0708 PM     HAIL             4 NW WYANDOTTE          36.83N 94.78W
06/15/2008  E1.00 INCH       OTTAWA             OK   EMERGENCY MNGR

&&

PBS

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
727 PM CDT SUN JUN 15 2008

ARZ001-002-160100-
BENTON AR-CARROLL AR-
727 PM CDT SUN JUN 15 2008

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA HAS ISSUED A
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT EFFECTIVE UNTIL 800 PM CDT
FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES...

IN NORTHWEST ARKANSAS
     NORTHWESTERN CARROLL AND NORTHEASTERN BENTON

AT 727 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A
LINE EXTENDING FROM 13 MILES NORTH OF GATEWAY TO BLAND...MOVING EAST
AT 23 MPH. SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL BE AFFECTED BY THESE STORMS
INCLUDE...BLAND...GATEWAY...EUREKA SPRINGS...BEAVER LAKE...BUSCH AND
BEAVER.

THESE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SMALL HAIL AND WIND GUSTS
TO 50 MPH. RESIDENTS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD REMAIN ALERT IN CASE THE
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT IS UPGRADED TO A WARNING.

LAT...LON 3630 9393 3649 9398 3650 9397 3650 9395
      3650 9394 3650 9378 3631 9366
TIME...MOT...LOC 0027Z 250DEG 20KT 3668 9397 3635 9387