Tornado Warning 106, NWS Tulsa, OK

000 
WWUS54 KTSA 160104
SVSTSA

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
802 PM CDT SUN JUN 15 2008

OKC041-115-160115-
/O.CON.KTSA.TO.W.0106.000000T0000Z-080616T0115Z/
DELAWARE OK-OTTAWA OK-
802 PM CDT SUN JUN 15 2008

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 815 PM CDT FOR
SOUTHEASTERN OTTAWA AND NORTHEASTERN DELAWARE COUNTIES...

AT 800 PM CDT...WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO INDICATE A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING GOLF BALL SIZE HAIL.  THE 
STRONG ROTATION EARLIER WITH THIS STORM HAS NOW WEAKENED. THIS STORM 
WAS LOCATED 8 MILES SOUTHEAST OF GROVE...MOVING SOUTH AT 27 MPH.

THE WILL OTHERWISE REMAIN OVER MAINLY RURAL AREAS OF THE INDICATED
COUNTY.

THIS STORM IS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING GOLF BALL SIZE HAIL AND 
DESTRUCTIVE STRAIGHT LINE WINDS. IF NO UNDERGROUND SHELTER IS 
AVAILABLE TAKE COVER ON THE LOWEST FLOOR IN AN INTERIOR ROOM AWAY 
FROM WINDOWS.

LAT...LON 3669 9466 3669 9461 3653 9462 3652 9461
      3649 9461 3649 9478 3669 9484 3670 9484
TIME...MOT...LOC 0102Z 350DEG 24KT 3651 9465

$$

000 
WWUS54 KTSA 160115
SVSTSA

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
815 PM CDT SUN JUN 15 2008

OKC041-115-160125-
/O.EXP.KTSA.TO.W.0106.000000T0000Z-080616T0115Z/
DELAWARE OK-OTTAWA OK-
815 PM CDT SUN JUN 15 2008

...THE TORNADO WARNING FOR SOUTHEASTERN OTTAWA AND NORTHEASTERN
DELAWARE COUNTIES EXPIRES AT 815 PM CDT...

THE THUNDERSTORM HAS MOVED OUT OF THE WARNED AREA...THEREFORE THE
TORNADO WARNING WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT.

LAT...LON 3669 9466 3669 9461 3653 9462 3652 9461
      3649 9461 3649 9478 3669 9484 3670 9484
TIME...MOT...LOC 0104Z 350DEG 24KT 3650 9465

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
347 PM CDT SUN JUN 15 2008

.DISCUSSION...
MISSOURI PORTION OF THE MCS CONTINUES TO PLOW SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON
BUT ACTIVITY HAS BEEN SLOW TO DEVELOP ON THE WESTERN FLANK OF THE
SYSTEM BACK INTO KANSAS. NEVERTHELESS...THERE IS STILL A STRONG
SIGNAL IN THE MODELS FOR VIGOROUS CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ACROSS
EAST CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS WHICH
WILL THEN ADVANCE SOUTH INTO NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST
ARKANSAS. THE INSTABILITY AXIS RUNS ROUGHLY ALONG U.S. HIGHWAY 75
WITH CAPE VALUES OF 4000-5000 J/KG. LARGE HAIL WILL BE A CONCERN
INITIALLY EARLY THIS EVENING WITH A QUICK TRANSITION TO A DAMAGING
WIND EVENT AS COLD POOL DEVELOPMENT OCCURS. MAY SEE MCS PLOW
THROUGH THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT BUT UNCERTAINTY
INCREASES TO THE SOUTH SO WILL TAPER POPS OFF TO THE SOUTH FOR
NOW. CURRENT FLASH FLOOD WATCH LOOKS GOOD.

BEYOND TONIGHT...DID NOT DEVIATE TOO FAR FROM GUIDANCE. GENERALLY
BLENDED GUIDANCE POPS THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS AS GREAT UNCERTAINTY
EXISTS ON LOCATION OF FUTURE MCS DEVELOPMENT. IF A POWERFUL MCS
PLOWS THROUGH OUR ENTIRE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT...THIS MAY WELL
PRECLUDE DEVELOPMENT IN OUR AREA OVER THE FOLLOWING 24 HOURS OR
SO. LIKEWISE DID NOT STRAY MUCH FROM THE GFS MOS GUIDANCE IN THE
EXTENDED. DID RAISE POPS A BIT IN THE THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY
TIMEFRAME AS BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF SUGGEST THIS MAY BE THE BEST
SHOT AT AN MCS AFFECTING A LARGE PORTION OF OUR FORECAST AREA IN
THE EXTENDED PERIODS. UPPER RIDGE BUILDS A BIT MORE STRONGLY OVER
THE AREA BY NEXT WEEKEND WHICH MAY FINALLY CUT OFF RAIN CHANCES
AND ALLOW THE HEAT TO BUILD BACK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   67  86  66  83 /  80  50  30  50
FSM   68  88  66  85 /  70  40  40  50
MLC   69  89  68  84 /  40  30  40  40
BVO   66  84  63  83 /  90  50  30  50
FYV   64  82  60  80 /  80  50  40  40
BYV   63  80  60  79 /  80  50  40  20
MKO   68  87  66  82 /  70  40  30  50
MIO   64  82  61  81 /  90  50  20  30
F10   68  88  67  82 /  60  40  40  50
HHW   71  91  69  86 /  30  30  30  40

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 7 PM SUNDAY TO 7 AM MONDAY FOR OKZ054-
     OKZ055-OKZ056-OKZ057-OKZ058-OKZ059-OKZ060-OKZ061-OKZ062-
     OKZ063-OKZ064-OKZ066-OKZ067-OKZ068-OKZ069-OKZ070-OKZ072.

AR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 7 PM SUNDAY TO 7 AM MONDAY FOR ARZ001-
     ARZ002-ARZ010-ARZ011-ARZ019-ARZ020-ARZ029.

&&

SHORT TERM...17
LONG TERM....05

PLATE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
637 PM CDT SUN JUN 15 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0633 PM     HAIL             2 SW PEORIA             36.89N 94.70W
06/15/2008  E0.88 INCH       OTTAWA             OK   EMERGENCY MNGR

&&

PBS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
709 PM CDT SUN JUN 15 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0708 PM     HAIL             4 NW WYANDOTTE          36.83N 94.78W
06/15/2008  E1.00 INCH       OTTAWA             OK   EMERGENCY MNGR

&&

PBS