Alert archive / Arkansas / Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in 2008

Severe Thunderstorm Warning 428, NWS Tulsa, OK

June 15, 2008Carroll County, Madison County, Arkansas

NWS Tulsa, OK issued this severe thunderstorm warning at Jun 15, 2008, 8:04 PM CDT for Carroll County, Madison County, Arkansas. It was in force for 41 min. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued: Jun 15, 2008, 8:04 PM CDT (01:04 UTC)
Expired: Jun 15, 2008, 8:45 PM CDT
In force: 41 min
Issued by: NWS Tulsa, OK
Area: Storm-based polygon

Counties Carroll County, AR, Madison County, AR

Did it verify

Not verified. The Iowa Environmental Mesonet's Cow found no qualifying storm report inside this severe thunderstorm warning while it was in force. That is not proof nothing happened: reports are thin where few people live.

Cow counts a report within 15 km of the polygon while the warning was in force: a tornado for a tornado warning; hail of 1 inch or more, a gust of 58 mph or more or wind damage for a severe thunderstorm warning; a flash flood report for a flash flood warning.

The watch it was issued in

The SPC watch in force over the same counties when this warning went out.

Issued	Product	Office	Lasted
Jun 15, 6:38 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Watch	SPC	5 hr

The nearest sounding before it

Springfield, MO (KSGF), launched 00:00Z, 1.1 hours before the alert went out and 81 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 426 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: -284 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL: 1124 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 37 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: 28 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 321 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.0
Supercell composite: -0.1

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

000 
WUUS54 KTSA 160104
SVRTSA
ARC015-087-160145-
/O.NEW.KTSA.SV.W.0428.080616T0104Z-080616T0145Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
804 PM CDT SUN JUN 15 2008

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
  CARROLL COUNTY IN NORTHWEST ARKANSAS
  NORTHEASTERN MADISON COUNTY IN NORTHWEST ARKANSAS

* UNTIL 845 PM CDT

* AT 800 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
  LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE HAIL
  AND DAMAGING WINDS TO 70 MPH. THESE STORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A
  LINE EXTENDING FROM OAK GROVE TO GREEN FOREST TO 8 MILES SOUTHWEST
  OF BERRYVILLE...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 20 MPH.

* SOME LOCATIONS NEAR THE PATH OF THESE STORMS INCLUDE...GREEN
  FOREST...RULE...RUDD...ALPENA...CARROLLTON...OSAGE AND MARBLE.

PEOPLE OUTSIDE SHOULD MOVE TO A SAFE SHELTER...PREFERABLY INSIDE A
STRONG BUILDING. STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS UNTIL THE STORM HAS PASSED.

LAT...LON 3614 9333 3612 9344 3613 9346 3612 9346
      3609 9358 3633 9373 3641 9352 3650 9340
      3637 9329 3618 9329
TIME...MOT...LOC 0104Z 330DEG 17KT 3643 9336 3633 9346
          3629 9367

$$

3 follow-up statements

000 
WWUS54 KTSA 160119
SVSTSA

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
819 PM CDT SUN JUN 15 2008

ARC007-OKC041-160200-
/O.CON.KTSA.SV.W.0427.000000T0000Z-080616T0200Z/
BENTON AR-DELAWARE OK-
819 PM CDT SUN JUN 15 2008

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 900 PM CDT
FOR SOUTHEASTERN DELAWARE AND WESTERN BENTON COUNTIES...

AT 817 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING GOLF
BALL SIZE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS TO 70 MPH. THESE STORMS WERE
LOCATED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM SULPHUR SPRINGS TO MAYSVILLE...
MOVING SOUTH AT 25 MPH.

SOME LOCATIONS NEAR THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE...DECATUR...
CHEROKEE CITY...COLCORD...GENTRY AND FAIRMOUNT.

THIS STORM IS LIKELY PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. SEEK
SHELTER IMMEDIATELY INSIDE A STURDY STRUCTURE AND STAY AWAY FROM
WINDOWS.

LAT...LON 3649 9446 3620 9444 3619 9470 3650 9478
TIME...MOT...LOC 0119Z 341DEG 22KT 3641 9449 3640 9470

$$

000 
WWUS54 KTSA 160136
SVSTSA

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
835 PM CDT SUN JUN 15 2008

ARC015-087-160145-
/O.CON.KTSA.SV.W.0428.000000T0000Z-080616T0145Z/
CARROLL AR-MADISON AR-
835 PM CDT SUN JUN 15 2008

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 845 PM CDT
FOR NORTHEASTERN MADISON AND SOUTHEASTERN CARROLL COUNTIES...

AT 834 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING PENNY
SIZE HAIL AND WINDS TO 60 MPH. THESE STORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE
EXTENDING FROM CARROLLTON TO OSAGE TO MARBLE...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 20
MPH.  THE STRONGEST CELL IN THIS LINE WAS BETWEEN CARROLLTON AND 
RULE.  OVERALL THE STORMS HAVE WEAKENED BUT REMAIN CAPABABLE OF
PRODUCING SEVERE WEATHER.

SOME LOCATIONS NEAR THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE...OSAGE...
MARBLE...DRYFORK AND DELMAR.

STAY INDOORS AND AWAY FROM WINDOWS UNTIL THE STORM HAS PASSED.

LAT...LON 3614 9333 3612 9342 3613 9346 3612 9346
      3609 9358 3626 9369 3635 9335 3631 9329
      3618 9329
TIME...MOT...LOC 0135Z 330DEG 17KT 3626 9331 3620 9337
          3617 9359

$$

000 
WWUS54 KTSA 160146
SVSTSA

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
844 PM CDT SUN JUN 15 2008

ARC015-087-160154-
/O.EXP.KTSA.SV.W.0428.000000T0000Z-080616T0145Z/
CARROLL AR-MADISON AR-
844 PM CDT SUN JUN 15 2008

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR NORTHEASTERN MADISON AND
SOUTHEASTERN CARROLL COUNTIES EXPIRES AT 845 PM CDT...

THE THUNDERSTORMS MOVING ACROSS SOUTHERN CARROLL AND EXTREME 
NORTHEAST MADISON COUNTY HAVE WEAKENED TO JUST BELOW SEVERE 
LIMITS...THEREFORE THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING WILL BE ALLOWED 
TO EXPIRE AT THIS TIME.

GUSTY WINDS...SMALL HAIL AND HEAVY RAIN WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE WITH 
THESE STORMS AS THEY TRACK ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN CARROLL COUNTY.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THESE AREAS UNTIL 
MIDNIGHT.

LAT...LON 3614 9333 3612 9342 3613 9346 3612 9346
      3609 9358 3626 9369 3635 9335 3631 9329
      3618 9329
TIME...MOT...LOC 0144Z 330DEG 17KT 3622 9328 3616 9334
          3613 9356

$$

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this severe thunderstorm warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Tulsa, OK wrote its last area forecast discussion before this severe thunderstorm warning went out at Jun 15, 3:47 PM CDT, 4 hours 17 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Jun 15, 3:47 PM CDT, 4 hours 17 minutes before

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
347 PM CDT SUN JUN 15 2008

.DISCUSSION...
MISSOURI PORTION OF THE MCS CONTINUES TO PLOW SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON
BUT ACTIVITY HAS BEEN SLOW TO DEVELOP ON THE WESTERN FLANK OF THE
SYSTEM BACK INTO KANSAS. NEVERTHELESS...THERE IS STILL A STRONG
SIGNAL IN THE MODELS FOR VIGOROUS CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ACROSS
EAST CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS WHICH
WILL THEN ADVANCE SOUTH INTO NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST
ARKANSAS. THE INSTABILITY AXIS RUNS ROUGHLY ALONG U.S. HIGHWAY 75
WITH CAPE VALUES OF 4000-5000 J/KG. LARGE HAIL WILL BE A CONCERN
INITIALLY EARLY THIS EVENING WITH A QUICK TRANSITION TO A DAMAGING
WIND EVENT AS COLD POOL DEVELOPMENT OCCURS. MAY SEE MCS PLOW
THROUGH THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT BUT UNCERTAINTY
INCREASES TO THE SOUTH SO WILL TAPER POPS OFF TO THE SOUTH FOR
NOW. CURRENT FLASH FLOOD WATCH LOOKS GOOD.

BEYOND TONIGHT...DID NOT DEVIATE TOO FAR FROM GUIDANCE. GENERALLY
BLENDED GUIDANCE POPS THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS AS GREAT UNCERTAINTY
EXISTS ON LOCATION OF FUTURE MCS DEVELOPMENT. IF A POWERFUL MCS
PLOWS THROUGH OUR ENTIRE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT...THIS MAY WELL
PRECLUDE DEVELOPMENT IN OUR AREA OVER THE FOLLOWING 24 HOURS OR
SO. LIKEWISE DID NOT STRAY MUCH FROM THE GFS MOS GUIDANCE IN THE
EXTENDED. DID RAISE POPS A BIT IN THE THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY
TIMEFRAME AS BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF SUGGEST THIS MAY BE THE BEST
SHOT AT AN MCS AFFECTING A LARGE PORTION OF OUR FORECAST AREA IN
THE EXTENDED PERIODS. UPPER RIDGE BUILDS A BIT MORE STRONGLY OVER
THE AREA BY NEXT WEEKEND WHICH MAY FINALLY CUT OFF RAIN CHANCES
AND ALLOW THE HEAT TO BUILD BACK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   67  86  66  83 /  80  50  30  50
FSM   68  88  66  85 /  70  40  40  50
MLC   69  89  68  84 /  40  30  40  40
BVO   66  84  63  83 /  90  50  30  50
FYV   64  82  60  80 /  80  50  40  40
BYV   63  80  60  79 /  80  50  40  20
MKO   68  87  66  82 /  70  40  30  50
MIO   64  82  61  81 /  90  50  20  30
F10   68  88  67  82 /  60  40  40  50
HHW   71  91  69  86 /  30  30  30  40

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 7 PM SUNDAY TO 7 AM MONDAY FOR OKZ054-
     OKZ055-OKZ056-OKZ057-OKZ058-OKZ059-OKZ060-OKZ061-OKZ062-
     OKZ063-OKZ064-OKZ066-OKZ067-OKZ068-OKZ069-OKZ070-OKZ072.

AR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 7 PM SUNDAY TO 7 AM MONDAY FOR ARZ001-
     ARZ002-ARZ010-ARZ011-ARZ019-ARZ020-ARZ029.

&&

SHORT TERM...17
LONG TERM....05

PLATE

In the hours before

Local storm report, Jun 15, 6:37 PM CDT, 1 hour 27 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
637 PM CDT SUN JUN 15 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0633 PM     HAIL             2 SW PEORIA             36.89N 94.70W
06/15/2008  E0.88 INCH       OTTAWA             OK   EMERGENCY MNGR

&&

PBS

Local storm report, Jun 15, 7:09 PM CDT, 55 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
709 PM CDT SUN JUN 15 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0708 PM     HAIL             4 NW WYANDOTTE          36.83N 94.78W
06/15/2008  E1.00 INCH       OTTAWA             OK   EMERGENCY MNGR

&&

PBS

Special weather statement, Jun 15, 7:27 PM CDT, 37 minutes before

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
727 PM CDT SUN JUN 15 2008

ARZ001-002-160100-
BENTON AR-CARROLL AR-
727 PM CDT SUN JUN 15 2008

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA HAS ISSUED A
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT EFFECTIVE UNTIL 800 PM CDT
FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES...

IN NORTHWEST ARKANSAS
     NORTHWESTERN CARROLL AND NORTHEASTERN BENTON

AT 727 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A
LINE EXTENDING FROM 13 MILES NORTH OF GATEWAY TO BLAND...MOVING EAST
AT 23 MPH. SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL BE AFFECTED BY THESE STORMS
INCLUDE...BLAND...GATEWAY...EUREKA SPRINGS...BEAVER LAKE...BUSCH AND
BEAVER.

THESE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SMALL HAIL AND WIND GUSTS
TO 50 MPH. RESIDENTS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD REMAIN ALERT IN CASE THE
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT IS UPGRADED TO A WARNING.

LAT...LON 3630 9393 3649 9398 3650 9397 3650 9395
      3650 9394 3650 9378 3631 9366
TIME...MOT...LOC 0027Z 250DEG 20KT 3668 9397 3635 9387

Special weather statement, Jun 15, 7:32 PM CDT, 32 minutes before

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
732 PM CDT SUN JUN 15 2008

ARZ001-160100-
BENTON AR-
732 PM CDT SUN JUN 15 2008

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA HAS ISSUED A
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT EFFECTIVE UNTIL 800 PM CDT
FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTY...

IN NORTHWEST ARKANSAS
     NORTHEASTERN BENTON

AT 732 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A
LINE EXTENDING FROM 13 MILES NORTH OF GATEWAY TO BEAVER LAKE...MOVING
EAST AT 23 MPH. SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL BE AFFECTED BY THESE STORMS
INCLUDE...BLAND...GATEWAY AND BEAVER LAKE.

THESE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SMALL HAIL AND WIND GUSTS
TO 50 MPH. RESIDENTS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD REMAIN ALERT IN CASE THE
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT IS UPGRADED TO A WARNING.

LAT...LON 3630 9394 3650 9398 3650 9395 3650 9394
      3650 9388 3642 9386 3641 9386 3630 9387
TIME...MOT...LOC 0032Z 250DEG 20KT 3668 9394 3636 9384

Local storm report, Jun 15, 7:55 PM CDT, 9 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
755 PM CDT SUN JUN 15 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0710 PM     TSTM WND DMG     2 S WYANDOTTE           36.76N 94.72W
06/15/2008                   OTTAWA             OK   EMERGENCY MNGR

            NUMEROUS TREES DOWN, SOME AS LARGE AS 2 FEET IN DIAMETER
            NEAR HWY 60 AND BURLINGTON RAILROAD.

&&

PBS

The office that day

Everything else NWS Tulsa, OK issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
Jun 15, 7:10 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	TSA	Carroll	65 min
Jun 15, 7:27 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	TSA	Carroll	33 min
Jun 15, 7:32 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	TSA	Benton	28 min
Jun 15, 7:40 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	TSA	Benton	80 min
Jun 15, 8:14 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	TSA	Carroll	31 min
Jun 15, 8:49 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	TSA	Benton, Madison	56 min
Jun 15, 8:52 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	TSA	Benton, Washington	53 min
Jun 15, 8:59 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	TSA	Madison	38 min
Jun 15, 9:07 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	TSA	Madison, Washington	38 min
Jun 15, 9:34 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	TSA	Washington	41 min
Jun 15, 9:51 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	TSA	Crawford, Washington	54 min
Jun 15, 10:08 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	TSA	Washington	37 min
Jun 15, 10:29 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	TSA	Crawford, Franklin, Sebastian	46 min
Jun 15, 10:54 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	TSA	Franklin, Sebastian	66 min
Jun 15, 11:11 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	TSA	Crawford, Franklin, Sebastian	34 min
Jun 15, 11:54 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	TSA	Franklin, Sebastian	66 min
Jun 16, 12:20 AM CDT	Flash Flood Warning	TSA	Crawford, Franklin, Sebastian	3 hr
Jun 16, 12:58 AM CDT	Special Weather Statement	TSA	Polk	47 min
Jun 16, 8:55 AM CDT	River Flood Warning	TSA	Crawford, Sebastian	48 hr

Nearby

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in Arkansas, 2008 Every severe thunderstorm warning in 2008

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive.