Severe Thunderstorm Warning 553, NWS Springfield, MO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1116 AM CST SAT DEC 27 2008

...UPDATE TO AVIATION...

.DISCUSSION...

UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS CURRENTLY BEGINNING TO PUSH INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS...WHICH IS A LITTLE SLOWER THAN PREVIOUS THOUGHT. AS A
RESULT HEIGHT FALLS HAVE NOT MOVED INTO SOUTHWESTERN MISSOURI
WHICH HAS LEFT THE AREA CAPPED. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW ELEVATED
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS NORTHERN ARKANSAS INTO CENTRAL
MISSOURI EAST OF HIGHWAY 65. THIS ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO BE
POSSIBLE EAST OF HIGHWAY 65 AND SHOULD REMAIN ELEVATED AND SEVERE
WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED WITH THIS ACTIVITY AT THIS TIME.

FARTHER NORTH ACROSS NORTHERN MISSOURI INTO ILLINOIS WHERE THE CAP
WEAKENED...THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPED WITH SEVERAL BECOMING SEVERE.
BACK TO THE WEST ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS INTO SOUTHERN IOWA
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG THE COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM
SOUTHERN IOWA INTO NORTHERN TEXAS...WITH THE MAJORITY OF THIS AREA
UNDER TORNADO WARNINGS. THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY PUSH
EAST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT...WITH SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUING TO DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT AS IT MARCHES
EAST.

THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH TO THE
EAST TODAY...WITH THE COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO BE ON THE DOOR STEP
OF THE WESTERN CWA AROUND SUNRISE. AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
APPROACHES THE AREA...HEIGHT FALLS SHOULD WEAKEN THE CAP...ALLOWING
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH STORMS ALSO
EXPECTED ALONG THE FRONT. THE FRONT WILL PUSH EAST THROUGH THE
AREA...AND SHOULD EXIT THE EASTERN CWA BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
THE AIRMASS AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL REMAIN QUITE WARM AND MOIST
WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S AND TEMPERATURES WELL IN THE 60S
EXPECTED. ENOUGH INSTABILITY SHOULD RETURN TO THE AREA TO MAKE ALL
MODES OF SEVERE WEATHER POSSIBLE WITH THE ACTIVITY THE DEVELOPS
AHEAD OF THE FRONT. VERY STRONG LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR WILL
ACCOMPANY THIS STORM SYSTEM...SO TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS
THE ENTIRE AREA...HOWEVER THE BETTER INSTABILITY WILL BE ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN CWA SOUTHWARD WHERE THE BETTER TORNADO POTENTIAL WILL
RESIDE. THE AIRMASS OVER THE REGION IS VERY MOIST FOR THIS TIME
OF YEAR...SO VERY HEAVY RAINFALL CAN BE EXPECTED TODAY WITH ONE TO
THREE INCHES STILL EXPECTED THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...WHICH WILL
LIKELY LEAD TO FLASH FLOODING.

COLDER AIR WILL QUICKLY FILTER INTO THE AREA BEHIND THE
FRONT...AND CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE
NORTHWESTERN CWA TOMORROW EVENING...HOWEVER AT THIS TIME IT
APPEARS THE FRONT WILL BE PROGRESSIVE ENOUGH THAT ALL THE
PRECIPITATION SHOULD HAVE PUSHED OFF TO THE EAST BEFORE THE
TEMPERATURES COOL ENOUGH TO SUPPORT THE FRONT.

A COOLER AIRMASS WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION BEHIND THIS
SYSTEM...WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO START THE WORK
WEEK AS A ZONAL PATTERN WILL SET UP OVER THE REGION. AN UPPER
LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL SWING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS
DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE WORK WEEK. THE ENERGY AND ASSOCIATED
PRECIPITATION SHOULD REMAIN WELL NORTH OF THE AREA...HOWEVER THIS
TROUGH SHOULD BRING SLIGHTLY COOLER CONDITIONS TO THE REGION.

WISE

&&

.AVIATION...

FOR THE 18Z TAFS...COLD FRONT STILL LAGGING BEHIND MAIN BAND OF
RAIN SOME WITH 850MB TROUGH STILL BACK OVER EASTERN KANSAS. WINDS
HAVE SHIFTED TO THE NORTHWEST IN EXTREME EASTERN KANSAS AND
WESTERN MISSOURI. WITH THIS WIND SHIFT...IFR CEILINGS HAVE
DEVELOPED WITH THE UPSLOPE FLOW. DOES NOT LOOK LIKE THE 850MB
THERMAL TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE JOPLIN AREA UNTIL 00Z AND SHORTLY
THERAFTER FOR THE SPRINGFIELD AERODROME. THEREFORE...WILL KEEP IFR
CEILINGS GOING FOR BOTH TAFS UNTIL THAT THERMAL TROUGH MOVES
IN...AT LEAST THROUGH THE 00Z TIMEFRAME.

CLAYCOMB

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR MOZ055>058-
     066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106.

KS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR KSZ073-097-
     101.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1258 PM CST SAT DEC 27 2008

KSZ073-097-101-MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106-281900-
BOURBON-CRAWFORD-CHEROKEE-BENTON-MORGAN-MILLER-MARIES-VERNON-
ST. CLAIR-HICKORY-CAMDEN-PULASKI-PHELPS-BARTON-CEDAR-POLK-DALLAS-
LACLEDE-TEXAS-DENT-JASPER-DADE-GREENE-WEBSTER-WRIGHT-NEWTON-
LAWRENCE-CHRISTIAN-DOUGLAS-HOWELL-SHANNON-MCDONALD-BARRY-STONE-
TANEY-OZARK-OREGON-
1258 PM CST SAT DEC 27 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF THE MISSOURI
OZARKS AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

  WEATHER HAZARDS EXPECTED:

  FLOODING...TORNADOES...DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE WINDS AND HAIL.

  AREAS AFFECTED AND TIMING:

  SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER EAST
  CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST MISSOURI THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

  DISCUSSION:

  A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS CURRENTLY EXTENDING FROM SALEM TO
  MOUNTAIN GROVE TO GAINESVILLE AND HAS SLOWED ITS MOVEMENT TO THE
  EAST TO 10 TO 15 MPH. AHEAD OF THIS LINE...INSTABILITY REMAINS
  HIGH WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 60S AND DEW POINTS IN THE LOW
  60S.

  THE LINE WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY PUSH EAST THIS AFTERNOON WITH
  DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE WINDS THE PRIMARY HAZARD WITH THIS LINE.
  SOME ROTATIONS ARE STILL POSSIBLE WITHIN THE LINE...SO AN
  ISOLATED TORNADO CAN NOT BE RULED OUT FOR COMMUNITIES EAST OF
  THIS LINE.

  OF CONCERN IS THE POTENTIAL FOR REDEVELOPMENT AND TRAINING OF
  STORMS...LEADING TO HEAVY RAINFALL. WITH SUB SURFACE SOILS
  REMAINING FROZEN...RAPID RUNOFF MAKES FLOODING A CONCERN.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

  NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

 SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED EAST OF THIS SALEM TO
 MOUNTAIN GROVE TO GAINESVILLE LINE THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON. AS
 THE LINE MOVES THROUGH YOUR AREA...SEVERE CONVECTION IS EXPECTED
 TO DECREASE RAPIDLY IN THE COLDER NORTHWEST FLOW.

&&

THIS PRODUCT IS NOW AVAILABLE IN GRAPHICAL FORMAT...ALONG WITH
OTHER WEATHER...HYDROLOGICAL AND CLIMATE INFORMATION...AT
HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/SGF(ALL LOWERCASE)

CLAYCOMB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1243 PM CST SAT DEC 27 2008

..TIME..    ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION.. ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1120 AM     TSTM WND GST     WALNUT SHADE            36.73N  93.19W
12/27/2008  E60 MPH          TANEY              MO   BROADCAST MEDIA

            TREE DAMAGE IN WALNUT SHADE ALONG 160. LARGE OAK TREE
            BLOWN DOWN AND NUMEROUS SMALL TREES DAMAGED.

&&

LD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1256 PM CST SAT DEC 27 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1256 PM     HEAVY RAIN       AVA                     36.95N 92.66W
12/27/2008  M1.28 INCH       DOUGLAS            MO   EMERGENCY MNGR

            PAST HOUR

&&

WD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
108 PM CST SAT DEC 27 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1259 PM     TSTM WND DMG     WASOLA                  36.79N 92.58W
12/27/2008                   OZARK              MO   AMATEUR RADIO

            TREE AND POWER POLE DOWN AND TIN BLOWN IN FIELD NEAR
            WASOLA

&&

WD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
116 PM CST SAT DEC 27 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1230 PM     TSTM WND DMG     WASOLA                  36.79N 92.58W
12/27/2008                   OZARK              MO   AMATEUR RADIO

            SHINGLE DAMAGE TO CHURCH JUST SOUTH OF WASOLA ON HWY 5

&&

WD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
117 PM CST SAT DEC 27 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1254 PM     TSTM WND GST     HOUSTON                 37.33N 91.96W
12/27/2008  M54 MPH          TEXAS              MO   AMATEUR RADIO

            NO DAMAGE REPORTED

&&

WD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
127 PM CST SAT DEC 27 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0110 PM     TSTM WND GST     7 S LICKING             37.40N 91.86W
12/27/2008  M67 MPH          TEXAS              MO   AMATEUR RADIO

            NO DAMAGE

&&

WD