Severe Thunderstorm Warning 344, NWS Springfield, MO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
859 AM CDT FRI JUN 6 2008

.UPDATE...

LIGHT SHOWERS WILL LIKELY DIMINISH BY LATE MORNING AS LOW LEVEL
JET DECREASES AND CLOUD TOPS CONTINUE TO WARM. DRYLINE OVER EASTERN
KANSAS WILL MIX EASTWARD WITH LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON HEATING.

12Z KSGF SOUNDING SHOWED CAPE VALUES APPROACHING 3000 J/KG ONCE
CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 80S ARE REACHED. WIND SHEAR
PROFILE WAS VERY STRONG WITH HELICITIES OVER 700 M2/S2...BUT
EXPECT THIS VALUE TO DECREASE THROUGH THE MORNING WITH LOSS OF THE
LOW LEVEL JET. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUE OF 1.72 INCHES ON THE
SOUNDING INDICATE POTENTIAL FOR VERY EFFICIENT RAINFALL PRODUCTION TODAY.

THERE IS AN UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK OVER EASTERN COLORADO THIS
MORNING WHICH WILL ROUND THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS OVER
CENTRAL KANSAS AND SHOOT NORTHEAST ACROSS NORTHWEST MO THIS
AFTERNOON. RIGHT NOW IT LOOKS LIKE THE GREATEST IMPACT FROM THE JET
STREAK WILL BE TO OUR NORTH...BUT WILL MONITOR ITS MOVEMENT
CLOSELY...AS IT COULD GIVE OUR AREA SOME ENHANCED LIFT DURING MAX
DAYTIME HEATING.

TERRY

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 12Z TAFS...WILL CONTINUE VICINITY THUNDER THROUGH 14-15Z
BASED ON RECENT RADAR TRENDS. THEREAFTER WE SHOULD SEE A LITTLE
BREAK IN CONVECTION UNTIL MID AFTERNOON.

WILL BRING WIND SHEAR BACK INTO JOPLIN LATE THIS EVENING AS
ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS OVER NORTHEAST COLORADO.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 651 AM CDT FRI JUN 6 2008/

A BROKEN LINE OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES TO
TRACK FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS SOUTHWEST MISSOURI THIS MORNING.
THE STRONGEST STORMS HAVE PRODUCED WINDS OF 60 TO 70 MPH. THE
CONVECTION WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO FESTER THROUGH THE MORNING
AIDED BY 0-6KM WIND SHEAR NEAR 50 KNOTS. HOWEVER THE FURTHER EAST
THAT STORMS PROPAGATE...FAVORABLE WIND SHEAR AND CAPE DECREASE
AND CIN INCREASES. THUS...A GRADUAL WEAKENING OF THE STORMS IS
EXPECTED. REDEVELOPMENT OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE
THROUGH THE DAY...AS DAYTIME HEATING AND MESOSCALE OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES WILL AID IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH WHERE RAINFALL HAS ENDED
THIS MORNING WILL BE DROPPED WITH THE MORNING PACKAGE ISSUANCE.
WE WILL CONTINUE TO SHAVE WESTERN COUNTIES FROM THE TORNADO WATCH
AS THE CONVECTION PROGRESSES EASTWARD.

WARM AND MUGGY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS
SOUTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES ALOFT WITH A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IN
THE WESTERN CONUS AND RIDGING IN THE SOUTHEAST CONUS. WILL BEGIN TO
INCREASE POPS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS ANOTHER SURFACE
LOW DEVELOPS IN SOUTHWEST KANSAS...AN UPPER TROUGH MOVES INTO THE
PLAINS AND A BAROCLINIC ZONE SHARPENS FROM NORTHERN MISSOURI TO
SOUTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA BRINGING A FOCUSING MECHANISM FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS INTO THE OZARKS DURING THE MIDDLE OF
THE WEEK AHEAD OF ANOTHER DEEPENING TROUGH IN THE WESTERN CONUS
WHICH WILL BRING ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
LATE IN THE WEEK.

ANGLE

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1037 AM CDT FRI JUN 6 2008

KSZ073-097-101-MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106-071545-
BOURBON-CRAWFORD-CHEROKEE-BENTON-MORGAN-MILLER-MARIES-VERNON-
ST. CLAIR-HICKORY-CAMDEN-PULASKI-PHELPS-BARTON-CEDAR-POLK-DALLAS-
LACLEDE-TEXAS-DENT-JASPER-DADE-GREENE-WEBSTER-WRIGHT-NEWTON-
LAWRENCE-CHRISTIAN-DOUGLAS-HOWELL-SHANNON-MCDONALD-BARRY-STONE-
TANEY-OZARK-OREGON-
1037 AM CDT FRI JUN 6 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF THE MISSOURI
OZARKS AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

SCATTERED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE EARLY
AFTERNOON...WITH GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH POSSIBLE.

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON EAST OF A LINE FROM VICHY TO BRANSON. THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT WILL BE AIDED BY INSTABILITY...CREATED BY DAYTIME
HEATING...ALONG WITH MODERATE TO STRONG WIND SHEAR AND OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES FROM PREVIOUS CONVECTION.

THE PRIMARY THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS UP TO 60 MPH ALONG WITH HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF QUARTERS.
HOWEVER...AN ISOLATED TORNADO CAN NOT BE RULED OUT DUE TO STRONG
WIND SHEAR AND THE PRESENCE OF OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES ACROSS THE
AREA.

LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN FROM ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY COULD
PRODUCE ISOLATED AREAS OF FLASH FLOODING TODAY....ESPECIALLY ON LOW
WATER CROSSINGS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN LATE SUNDAY NIGHT ALONG AND
NORTH OF A LINE FROM FORT SCOTT KANSAS TO OSAGE BEACH MISSOURI.
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE ENTIRE OUTLOOK AREA IS
POSSIBLE MONDAY AS ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM DEVELOPS IN THE CENTRAL
PLAINS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

 SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON EAST OF A LINE
 FROM VICHY TO BRANSON AFTER 2 PM.

&&

THIS PRODUCT IS NOW AVAILABLE IN GRAPHICAL FORMAT...ALONG WITH
OTHER WEATHER...HYDROLOGICAL AND CLIMATE INFORMATION...AT
HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/SGF(ALL LOWERCASE)

TERRY

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
618 AM CDT FRI JUN 06 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1049 PM     TSTM WND DMG     REDFIELD                37.84N 94.88W
06/05/2008                   BOURBON            KS   AMATEUR RADIO

            2 FOOT DIAMETER TREE DOWN OVER POWER LINES. CITIES OF
            DEVON AND REDFIELD HAVE POWER OUTAGES.

1122 PM     TSTM WND GST     2 N FRONTENAC           37.48N 94.69W
06/05/2008  E60.00 MPH       CRAWFORD           KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

0135 AM     TSTM WND DMG     NEVADA                  37.84N 94.35W
06/06/2008                   VERNON             MO   EMERGENCY MNGR

            SEVERAL TREES AND POWER LINES DOWN IN NEVADA

0218 AM     TSTM WND GST     4 NW PIERCE CITY        36.99N 94.05W
06/06/2008  E70.00 MPH       LAWRENCE           MO   AMATEUR RADIO

            LARGE LIMBS BLOWING ACROSS HIGHWAY.

0221 AM     TSTM WND DMG     3 N PIERCE CITY         36.99N 94.00W
06/06/2008                   LAWRENCE           MO   AMATEUR RADIO

            LARGE TREE DOWN ACROSS ROAD.

0229 AM     TSTM WND GST     EL DORADO SPRINGS       37.88N 94.02W
06/06/2008  E65.00 MPH       CEDAR              MO   PUBLIC

0241 AM     TSTM WND GST     MILLER                  37.21N 93.84W
06/06/2008  E70.00 MPH       LAWRENCE           MO   PUBLIC

            WINDS ESTIMATED AT 60 TO 70 MPH.

0250 AM     TSTM WND GST     MOUNT VERNON            37.10N 93.82W
06/06/2008  E60.00 MPH       LAWRENCE           MO   PUBLIC

0255 AM     TSTM WND GST     MONETT                  36.92N 93.93W
06/06/2008  E70.00 MPH       BARRY              MO   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            OFFICER INDICATED WINDS OF 60 TO 70 MPH.

0406 AM     HAIL             4 NE SPRINGFIELD        37.24N 93.23W
06/06/2008  E0.50 INCH       GREENE             MO   EMERGENCY MNGR

&&

MTERRY

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
750 AM CDT FRI JUN 06 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1055 PM     TSTM WND DMG     FULTON                  38.01N 94.72W
06/05/2008                   BOURBON            KS   EMERGENCY MNGR

            BARN BLOWN DOWN...TREES BLOWN DOWN AND DAMAGE TO AT LEAST
            ONE HOUSE ON HIGHWAY 31.

&&

MTERRY

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1007 AM CDT FRI JUN 06 2008

..TIME..    ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION.. ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0300 PM     NON-TSTM WND DMG CARTHAGE                37.18N  94.31W
06/05/2008                   JASPER             MO   NEWSPAPER

            TREE FELL CAUSING SLIGHT DAMAGE TO A HOME

&&

KARDELL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1051 AM CDT FRI JUN 06 2008

..TIME..    ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION.. ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0420 AM     TSTM WND DMG     6 W LEBANON             37.68N  92.77W
06/06/2008                   LACLEDE            MO   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            TELEPHONE POLE BLOWN OVER. TIME OF REPORT ESTIMATED.

&&

KARDELL