Flash Flood Warning 86, NWS Springfield, MO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
607 PM CDT FRI JUN 6 2008

.DISCUSSION...

FORECAST CHALLENGES CONCERN SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL THIS
AFTERNOON...THEN PRECIP CHANCES ONCE AGAIN SUNDAY NIGHT INTO THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

CURRENTLY...RADAR LIGHTING UP ON SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN MISSOURI. STRONGEST THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING OVER EAST
CENTRAL MISSOURI AND HAVE SEEN SOME ROTATION IN THESE STORMS.
0-1KM STORM HELICITIES OF 300-400 M2/S2 FROM SPC SREF PRODUCTS
AND EHI VALUES OF 4-5 IN THIS AREA CAPABLE OF SUPPORTING TORNADIC
THUNDERSTORMS. SREF FORECAST MODELS FOR THIS AFTERNOON SHOWING
THUNDERSTORM AND SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL SHOULD CONTINUE ACROSS
EAST CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN MISSOURI THIS AFTERNOON WITH MUCAPES
1500/2000 J/KG. AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 44 LOOK TO BE
UNDER THE GUN THIS AFTERNOON FOR FURTHER SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT. AREA PROFILERS SHOWING A VERY STRONG LOW LEVEL JET
EVIDENT ACROSS THIS AREA WITH A 50KT 850MB JET AND GOOD DIFLUENT
FLOW AT 300/250MBS AS A 60-70KT JET FINGER IS CROSSING THROUGH
THIS AREA. FURTHER WEST ACROSS EASTERN KANSAS...PROFILER WINDS
CONTINUE TO SHOW A WESTERLY TO NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WHICH IS
ADVECTING MID 50 DEWPOINTS INTO EASTERLY KANSAS. SO...THREAT AREA
TODAY SHOULD BE FOR OUR MISSOURI COUNTIES SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 44
THIS AFTERNOON.

WRF MODEL CONTINUES TO SHOW FAIRLY GOOD ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE ACROSS
OUR EASTERN ZONES THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING TONIGHT AND HAVE
BUMPED UP POPS FOR THIS AREA THIS EVENING AS STORMS CONTINUE TO
DEVELOP AS A 40-45KT LOW LEVEL JET CUTS THROUGH THE AREA. PROBABLY
WILL SEE CONVECTION CONTINUING ACROSS OUR EASTERN ZONES AT LEAST
THROUGH MIDNIGHT. WRF SOUNDINGS ALSO SHOWING PWATS OF 1.75 INCHES
ACROSS OUR EASTERN ZONES...SO FLASH FLOODING WILL CONTINUE TO BE A
THREAT.

BY SATURDAY..UPPER HEIGHTS BUILD ROUGHLY 30-50 DMS ACROSS SOUTHERN
MISSOURI EFFECTIVELY PUSHING CONVECTION NORTH OF THE CWA. FOR THE
MOST PART...CWA SHOULD BE DRY WITH HOT TEMPERATURES AND MUGGY
CONDITIONS. SHOULD STAY DRY THROUGH THE DAY AND INTO SUNDAY AS
HOT/HUMID CONDITIONS CONTINUE.

BY SUNDAY NIGHT...NEXT UPPER LOW SITUATED ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA WITH A
TRAILING COLD FRONT ACROSS EASTERN MINNESOTA...IOWA...BACK INTO
NORTHERN MISSOURI. MODELS INDICATING A CONVECTIVE COMPLEX
DEVELOPING ACROSS EASTERN KANSAS. CORFIDI VECTORS FROM THE GFS/WRF
SHOWS THAT THIS COMPLEX SHOULD TRACK INTO EXTREME SOUTHEAST KANSAS
AND WESTERN MISSOURI LATE IN THE EVENING SUNDAY INTO MONDAY
MORNING. HAVE THEREFORE INCREASED POPS EVEN MORE FROM THIS MORNINGS
FORECAST FOR OUR WESTERN ZONES.

THE WEEK IS GOING TO BE CHARACTERIZED BY UNSETTLED CONDITIONS
THROUGHOUT THE WEEK AS WESTERLY FLOW CONTINUES AND WE SEE SOME
DISTURBANCES MOVING THROUGH THE WESTERLY FLOW. THURSDAY LOOKS TO
BE OUR NEXT SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL PRODUCER AS ECMWF SHOWS ANOTHER
UPPER LOW MOVING ACROSS THE UPPER PLAINS...DRAGGING A COLD FRONT
INTO NORTHERN KANSAS.

GCC

&&

.AVIATION...

FOR THE 00Z TAFS...SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE THIS EVENING
AND HAVE VCTS WORDING FOR FIRST COUPLE OF HOURS IN JLN/SGF TAFS.
ALSO INCLUDED A TEMPO GROUP IN JLN FOR FIRST HOUR AS SOME TSRA
SOUTHWEST OF THE JLN TERMINAL AS OF 23Z. MAIN HAZARD LATER TONIGHT
WILL BE WITH NON-CONVECTIVE LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR. LOW LEVEL JET
WILL INCREASE TO THE WEST TONIGHT WITH WINDS AROUND 2000 FEET
ABOUT 45 KTS.

LINDENBERG

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
616 PM CDT FRI JUN 6 2008

KSZ073-097-101-MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106-072330-
BOURBON-CRAWFORD-CHEROKEE-BENTON-MORGAN-MILLER-MARIES-VERNON-
ST. CLAIR-HICKORY-CAMDEN-PULASKI-PHELPS-BARTON-CEDAR-POLK-DALLAS-
LACLEDE-TEXAS-DENT-JASPER-DADE-GREENE-WEBSTER-WRIGHT-NEWTON-
LAWRENCE-CHRISTIAN-DOUGLAS-HOWELL-SHANNON-MCDONALD-BARRY-STONE-
TANEY-OZARK-OREGON-
616 PM CDT FRI JUN 6 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF THE MISSOURI
OZARKS AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

 SCATTERED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP
 AND MOVE TO THE NORTHEAST OVER PORTIONS OF EXTREME SOUTHEAST
 KANSAS AND SOUTHWEST MISSOURI THIS EVENING. THE STRONGER
 THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS UP TO
 60 MPH...TORRENTIAL RAINFALL...AND ISOLATED TORNADOES. THE SEVERE
 WEATHER THREAT WILL GRADUALLY BEGIN TO DECREASE AFTER SUNSET.

 FLASH FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
 AS THE INDIVIDUAL CELLS HAVE SHOWN A TREND OF REPEATEDLY MOVING
 OVER THE SAME AREAS. RAINFALL RATES OF ONE TO TWO INCHES PER HOUR
 WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE HEAVIEST ACTIVITY...WHICH MAY RAPIDLY
 FLOOD SMALL CREEKS AND STREAMS...URBAN AREAS...AND LOW WATER
 CROSSINGS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

 THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN LATE SUNDAY NIGHT ALONG AND
 NORTH OF A LINE FROM FORT SCOTT KANSAS TO OSAGE BEACH MISSOURI.
 THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE ENTIRE OUTLOOK AREA IS
 POSSIBLE MONDAY AS ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM DEVELOPS IN THE CENTRAL
 PLAINS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

 SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS MAINLY
 NORTHWEST OF A LINE FROM CASSVILLE...TO SPRINGFIELD...TO SALEM.

&&

THIS PRODUCT IS NOW AVAILABLE IN GRAPHICAL FORMAT...ALONG WITH
OTHER WEATHER...HYDROLOGICAL AND CLIMATE INFORMATION...AT
HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/SGF(ALL LOWERCASE)

BARJENBRUCH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
453 PM CDT FRI JUN 06 2008

..TIME..    ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION.. ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0328 PM     FLASH FLOOD      EDGAR SPRINGS           37.70N  91.87W
06/06/2008                   PHELPS             MO   EMERGENCY MNGR

            NUMEROUS CREEKS OUT OF BANKS AROUND EDGAR SPRINGS

&&

GC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
509 PM CDT FRI JUN 06 2008

..TIME..    ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION.. ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0300 PM     FLASH FLOOD      3 E LEBANON             37.68N  92.61W
06/06/2008                   LACLEDE            MO   EMERGENCY MNGR

            WATER OVER HIGHWAY 32 3 MILES E OF LEBANON

&&

GC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
531 PM CDT FRI JUN 06 2008

..TIME..    ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION.. ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0200 PM     FLASH FLOOD      5 N MARSHFIELD          37.41N  92.91W
06/06/2008                   WEBSTER            MO   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            NEMEROUS ROADS CLOSED IN THE NORTHERN PART OF THE
            COUNTY DUE TO FLASH FLOODING. W HIGHWAY NEAR GREER
            CREEK...HH HIGHWAY TO EAST CC...BOWEN CREEK ROAD AND
            TIMBER RIDGE ROADS ALL CLOSED DUE TO FLOODING.

&&

GC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
552 PM CDT FRI JUN 06 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0200 PM     FLASH FLOOD      BOLIVAR                 37.61N 93.41W
06/06/2008                   POLK               MO   EMERGENCY MNGR

            NUMEROUS LOW WATER CROSSINGS FLOODED ACROSS COUNTY

&&

LDOOLEY

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
608 PM CDT FRI JUN 6 2008

MOZ078-089-062345-
DADE MO-CEDAR MO-
608 PM CDT FRI JUN 6 2008

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT FOR NORTHEASTERN DADE AND SOUTHEASTERN
CEDAR COUNTIES UNTIL 645 PM CDT...

AT 607 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 5 MILES NORTH OF GREENFIELD...MOVING NORTHEAST AT
28 MPH.

THIS STORM WILL REMAIN OVER MAINLY RURAL AREAS OF NORTHEASTERN DADE
AND SOUTHEASTERN CEDAR COUNTIES...INCLUDING THE TOWNS OF CANE HILL...
BONA...MASTERS AND BEARCREEK.

WINDS AROUND 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

GAEDE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
644 PM CDT FRI JUN 06 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0638 PM     FUNNEL CLOUD     2 E CANE HILL           37.58N 93.69W
06/06/2008                   CEDAR              MO   PUBLIC

            CITIZEN REPORT OF A FUNNEL CLOUD EAST OF CANE HILL. TIME
            ESTIMATED.

&&

BARJENBRUCH