Flash Flood Warning 79, NWS Springfield, MO

000 
WGUS73 KSGF 061039
FFSSGF

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
539 AM CDT FRI JUN 6 2008

MOC009-109-119-145-061400-
/O.CON.KSGF.FF.W.0079.000000T0000Z-080606T1400Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
LAWRENCE MO-NEWTON MO-BARRY MO-MCDONALD MO-
539 AM CDT FRI JUN 6 2008

...A FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 900 AM CDT FOR
BARRY...MCDONALD...NEWTON AND SOUTHERN LAWRENCE COUNTIES...

AT 530 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED THAT
WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINFALL HAD ENDED.  HOWEVER SCATTERED SHOWERS 
CONTINUED ACROSS THE WARNED AREA. RAINFALL AMOUNTS SINCE LATE 
THURSDAY EVENING HAVE GENERALLY RANGED FROM ONE TO TWO INCHES. 

RUNOFF FROM THIS EXCESSIVE RAINFALL IS LIKELY CAUSING FLASH FLOODING 
OF SMALL STREAMS AND LOW WATER CROSSINGS.  THOSE HEADED OUT ON THEIR 
MORNING COMMUTE SHOULD BE ALERT FOR WATER COVERED ROADS. 


LAT...LON 3705 9461 3706 9362 3700 9362 3650 9385
      3649 9460
TIME...MOT...LOC 1039Z 180DEG 0KT 3682 9406

$$

FOSTER

000 
WGUS73 KSGF 061320
FFSSGF

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
819 AM CDT FRI JUN 6 2008

MOC009-109-119-145-061329-
/O.CAN.KSGF.FF.W.0079.000000T0000Z-080606T1400Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
LAWRENCE MO-NEWTON MO-BARRY MO-MCDONALD MO-
819 AM CDT FRI JUN 6 2008

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING HAS BEEN CANCELLED FOR BARRY...MCDONALD...
NEWTON AND SOUTHERN LAWRENCE COUNTIES...

EXCESS RUNOFF FROM HEAVY RAIN HAS ENDED OVER THE WARNED AREA. STREAMS
AND CREEKS IN THE WARNED AREA HAVE RECEDED OR WERE BEGINNING TO
RECEDE...ENDING THE FLOOD THREAT. IF FLOODING HAS BEEN OBSERVED...
PLEASE REPORT IT TO YOUR LOCAL LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY.

LAT...LON 3705 9461 3706 9362 3700 9362 3650 9385
      3649 9460
TIME...MOT...LOC 1319Z 180DEG 0KT 3682 9406

$$

TERRY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1246 AM CDT FRI JUN 6 2008

...UPDATE TO AVIATION...

.DISCUSSION...

A DANGEROUS WEATHER EPISODE FOR THE CENTRAL PLAINS IS IN PROGRESS
THIS AFTERNOON.  SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE DEVELOPING ALONG A DRYLINE
OVER CENTRAL KANSAS IN RESPONSE TO COOLING TEMPERATURES ALOFT
SPREADING OVER A HIGHLY SHEARED AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS.  THE EVOLUTION
AND EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THESE STORMS WILL COMPLETELY DICTATE HOW
FRIDAYS SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL WILL UNFOLD FOR EXTREME SOUTHEAST
KANSAS AND THE MISSOURI OZARKS.  DISCERNING
TIMING...POSITIONING...AND INTENSITY OF THUNDERSTORMS EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING INTO FRIDAY NIGHT WERE THE PRIMARY FOCUSES FOR TODAYS
FORECAST ANALYSIS.

THE LATEST FORECAST MODEL CONSENSUS SUGGESTS THAT TONIGHTS CENTRAL
PLAINS CONVECTION WILL CONGEAL INTO A SQUALL LINE...EVENTUALLY
IMPACTING WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE COUNTY WARNING AREA SOMETIME AFTER
2AM.  DUE TO LOW LEVEL JET INFLUENCES...THESE STORMS WILL LIKELY
MAINTAIN SEVERE INTENSITY AS THEY TRANSLATE EAST INTO THE SGF CWA.
DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 70 MPH...LARGE HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF
HALF DOLLARS...AND AN ISOLATED TORNADO CAN NOT BE RULED OUT FOR
AREAS ALONG AND WEST OF A LINE FROM JOPLIN TO SCHELL CITY.

FRIDAYS FORECAST REMAINS UNCERTAIN...AND THERE ARE A FEW DIFFERENT
SCENARIOS THAT COULD PLAY OUT.  AGAIN...FRIDAYS STORM POTENTIAL IS
DEPENDENT UPON TONIGHTS CONVECTION...THEREFORE FRIDAYS FORECAST WILL
BECOME BETTER UNDERSTOOD WITH TIME.  ULTIMATELY IF THE MORNING
CONVECTION EITHER SHIFTS EAST OF THE REGION OR DISSIPATES WHILE
CLOUD COVER ERODES...THEN THE AIRMASS COULD DESTABILIZE AND BECOME
VOLATILE.  WHO KNOWS IF RESIDUAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES WILL TRIGGER
FRIDAY AFTERNOON CONVECTION.  THE DRYLINE BECOMES STATIONARY OVER
SOUTHEAST KANSAS...WHICH COULD ALSO BECOME A TRIGGER.

IF CLOUD COVER PERSISTS AND THE AIRMASS REMAINS RAIN
CONTAMINATED...THEN THE SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL DECREASES.  AS OF
NOW THERE IS NO SIGNALS WITHIN QPF OUTPUT FROM THE GFS OR THE WRF
THAT SUGGESTS ADDITIONAL SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY AFTERNOON.  BUT
I DO NOT SOLELY BUY INTO THIS ANALYSIS EITHER.  A LOT OF DRY DESERT
AIR ADVECTS IN ALOFT AND SPREADS OVER THE WARM SECTOR FRIDAY
AFTERNOON.  THIS COULD ERODE CLOUDS AND ALLOW THE AIRMASS TO
CHARGE.  IT WILL BE INTERESTING TO SEE HOW FRIDAY MATERIALIZES.  AT
ANY RATE...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SPRINGFIELD WILL BE
CLOSELY MONITORING ALL DATA SOURCES IN DETERMINING THE POTENTIAL FOR
HAZARDOUS WEATHER ON FRIDAY.

MOSTLY DRY AND HOT CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE SATURDAY -
MONDAY TIME FRAME.  AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL CONSISTENTLY RANGE
FROM THE MID 80S TO LOWER 90S.  A MOIST AIRMASS WILL REMAIN IN
PLACE...AND I CAN NOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT ISOLATED PULSE
THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING PERIODS.
AGAIN MOST LOCATIONS WILL REMAIN DRY.

THE LATEST MEDIUM RANGE MODELS INDICATE THAT THE NEXT ORGANIZED
EPISODE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COULD IMPACT THE REGION NEXT
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.  A COLD FRONT MOVES IN FROM THE
NORTH...BECOMING STATIONARY SOMEWHERE WITHIN OR NEAR THE CWA.  THIS
FEATURE COULD BECOME A FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR A FEW
PERIODS...IF IT REMAINS STATIONARY FOR A LENGTH OF TIME.

CRAMER

&&

.AVIATION...

FOR THE 06Z TAF PACKAGE....A SQUALL LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
AFFECTING KJLN AND KSGF DURING THE EARLY PERIODS OF THE FORECAST.
AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO PROPEGATE AHEAD OF THE SQUALL
LINE WITH A WIND SHIFT FROM 180 DEGREES TO 310 DEGREES ASSOCIATED
WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY AT KJLN. THE SQUALL LINE
WILL EFFECT KSGF AROUND 08Z. VISIBILITES AND CEILINGS WILL BE
REDUCED TO MVFR AT TIMES AS TSRA MOVES IN.

ANGLE

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM CDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR MOZ055-056-
     066>069-077>081-088>091-093>095-101>104.

     FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR MOZ066-067-
     077-078-088-089.

KS...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM CDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR KSZ073-097-
     101.

     FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR KSZ073-097-
     101.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
241 AM CDT FRI JUN 6 2008

KSZ073-097-101-MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106-070745-
BOURBON-CRAWFORD-CHEROKEE-BENTON-MORGAN-MILLER-MARIES-VERNON-
ST. CLAIR-HICKORY-CAMDEN-PULASKI-PHELPS-BARTON-CEDAR-POLK-DALLAS-
LACLEDE-TEXAS-DENT-JASPER-DADE-GREENE-WEBSTER-WRIGHT-NEWTON-
LAWRENCE-CHRISTIAN-DOUGLAS-HOWELL-SHANNON-MCDONALD-BARRY-STONE-
TANEY-OZARK-OREGON-
241 AM CDT FRI JUN 6 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF THE MISSOURI
OZARKS AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

SOUTH WINDS OF 20 TO 30 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED TONIGHT ACROSS
SOUTHEAST KANSAS AND WESTERN MISSOURI IN ADVANCE OF A STRONG AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE.

A LINE OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT
EASTWARD OVERNIGHT. THE MAIN SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WITH THESE
STORMS WILL BE DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE WINDS UP TO 70 MPH.
HOWEVER...QUARTER SIZE HAIL AND ISOLATED TORNADOES CAN NOT BE
RULED OUT DUE TO SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF WIND SHEAR IN THE LOWER
ATMOSPHERE. THE THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL EXIST WEST OF A
LINE FROM NEAR VIENNA TO GAINESVILLE THROUGH 6 AM.

HEAVY RAIN AND FLASH FLOODING ARE ALSO POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT ACROSS
SOUTHWEST MISSOURI AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST KANSAS AS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING HEAVY RAINFALL TRAVEL OVER SIMILAR PATHS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

ONGOING STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY MORNING WILL SHIFT
EAST INTO THE MISSOURI OZARKS. DAYTIME HEATING FRIDAY AFTERNOON
WILL LIKELY RESULT IN EITHER INTENSIFYING EXISTING STORMS...OR
REDEVELOPING ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS. IF RAIN AND CLOUD COVER
CONTAMINATE THE OSAGE PLAINS AND OZARKS AIRMASS THROUGHOUT MOST
OF FRIDAY...THEN THE RISK FOR ADDITIONAL SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
WOULD DECREASE.

HOWEVER...IF THE OSAGE PLAINS AND OZARKS AIRMASS REMAINS SUNNY
AND THE ATMOSPHERE DESTABILIZES AS A RESULT OF DAYTIME HEATING
...EXPECTED WIND SHEAR MAGNITUDES WOULD CREATE AN ENVIRONMENT FOR
ALL MODES OF SEVERE WEATHER INCLUDING DAMAGING WINDS...LARGE
HAIL...AND TORNADOES. THE POTENTIAL SLOW MOVEMENT OF THIS
ACTIVITY WILL RESULT IN HEAVY RAINFALL AND A LOCALIZED RISK OF
FLASH FLOODING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

  SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED THROUGH TONIGHT.

&&

THIS PRODUCT IS NOW AVAILABLE IN GRAPHICAL FORMAT...ALONG WITH
OTHER WEATHER...HYDROLOGICAL AND CLIMATE INFORMATION...AT
HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/SGF(ALL LOWERCASE)

ANGLE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1126 PM CDT THU JUN 05 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1122 PM     TSTM WND GST     2 N FRONTENAC           37.48N 94.69W
06/05/2008  E60 MPH          CRAWFORD           KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

BARJENBRUCH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
148 AM CDT FRI JUN 06 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0135 AM     TSTM WND DMG     NEVADA                  37.84N 94.35W
06/06/2008                   VERNON             MO   EMERGENCY MNGR

            SEVERAL TREES AND POWER LINES DOWN IN NEVADA

&&

BARJENBRUCH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
223 AM CDT FRI JUN 06 2008

..TIME..    ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION.. ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0218 AM     TSTM WND GST     4 NW PIERCE CITY        36.99N  94.05W
06/06/2008  E70 MPH          LAWRENCE           MO   AMATEUR RADIO

            LARGE LIMBS BLOWING ACROSS HIGHWAY.

&&

HATCH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
224 AM CDT FRI JUN 06 2008

..TIME..    ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION.. ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0221 AM     TSTM WND DMG     3 N PIERCE CITY         36.99N  94.00W
06/06/2008                   LAWRENCE           MO   AMATEUR RADIO

            LARGE TREE DOWN ACROSS ROAD.

&&

HATCH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
230 AM CDT FRI JUN 06 2008

..TIME..    ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION.. ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0229 AM     TSTM WND GST     EL DORADO SPRINGS       37.88N  94.02W
06/06/2008  E65 MPH          CEDAR              MO   PUBLIC

&&

HATCH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
242 AM CDT FRI JUN 06 2008

..TIME..    ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION.. ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0241 AM     TSTM WND GST     MILLER                  37.21N  93.84W
06/06/2008  E70 MPH          LAWRENCE           MO   PUBLIC

            WINDS ESTIMATED AT 60 TO 70 MPH.

&&

HATCH