Severe Thunderstorm Warning 343, NWS Springfield, MO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
342 AM CDT FRI JUN 6 2008

.DISCUSSION...

A BROKEN LINE OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES TO
TRACK FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS SOUTHWEST MISSOURI THIS MORNING.
THE STRONGEST STORMS HAVE PRODUCED WINDS OF 60 TO 70 MPH. THE
CONVECTION WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO FESTER THROUGH THE MORNING
AIDED BY 0-6KM WIND SHEAR NEAR 50 KNOTS. HOWEVER THE FURTHER EAST
THAT STORMS PROPAGATE...FAVORABLE WIND SHEAR AND CAPE DECREASE
AND CIN INCREASES. THUS...A GRADUAL WEAKENING OF THE STORMS IS
EXPECTED. REDEVELOPMENT OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE
THROUGH THE DAY...AS DAYTIME HEATING AND MESOSCALE OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES WILL AID IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH WHERE RAINFALL HAS ENDED
THIS MORNING WILL BE DROPPED WITH THE MORNING PACKAGE ISSUANCE.
WE WILL CONTINUE TO SHAVE WESTERN COUNTIES FROM THE TORNADO WATCH
AS THE CONVECTION PROGRESSES EASTWARD.

WARM AND MUGGY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS
SOUTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES ALOFT WITH A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IN
THE WESTERN CONUS AND RIDGING IN THE SOUTHEAST CONUS. WILL BEGIN TO
INCREASE POPS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS ANOTHER SURFACE
LOW DEVELOPS IN SOUTHWEST KANSAS...AN UPPER TROUGH MOVES INTO THE
PLAINS AND A BAROCLINIC ZONE SHARPENS FROM NORTHERN MISSOURI TO
SOUTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA BRINGING A FOCUSING MECHANISM FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS INTO THE OZARKS DURING THE MIDDLE OF
THE WEEK AHEAD OF ANOTHER DEEPENING TROUGH IN THE WESTERN CONUS
WHICH WILL BRING ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
LATE IN THE WEEK.

ANGLE

&&

.AVIATION...

FOR THE 06Z TAF PACKAGE....A SQUALL LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
AFFECTING KJLN AND KSGF DURING THE EARLY PERIODS OF THE FORECAST.
AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO PROPEGATE AHEAD OF THE SQUALL
LINE WITH A WIND SHIFT FROM 180 DEGREES TO 310 DEGREES ASSOCIATED
WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY AT KJLN. THE SQUALL LINE
WILL EFFECT KSGF AROUND 08Z. VISIBILITES AND CEILINGS WILL BE
REDUCED TO MVFR AT TIMES AS TSRA MOVES IN.

ANGLE

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR MOZ066-067-
     077-078-088-089.

KS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR KSZ073-097-
     101.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
241 AM CDT FRI JUN 6 2008

KSZ073-097-101-MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106-070745-
BOURBON-CRAWFORD-CHEROKEE-BENTON-MORGAN-MILLER-MARIES-VERNON-
ST. CLAIR-HICKORY-CAMDEN-PULASKI-PHELPS-BARTON-CEDAR-POLK-DALLAS-
LACLEDE-TEXAS-DENT-JASPER-DADE-GREENE-WEBSTER-WRIGHT-NEWTON-
LAWRENCE-CHRISTIAN-DOUGLAS-HOWELL-SHANNON-MCDONALD-BARRY-STONE-
TANEY-OZARK-OREGON-
241 AM CDT FRI JUN 6 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF THE MISSOURI
OZARKS AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

SOUTH WINDS OF 20 TO 30 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED TONIGHT ACROSS
SOUTHEAST KANSAS AND WESTERN MISSOURI IN ADVANCE OF A STRONG AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE.

A LINE OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT
EASTWARD OVERNIGHT. THE MAIN SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WITH THESE
STORMS WILL BE DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE WINDS UP TO 70 MPH.
HOWEVER...QUARTER SIZE HAIL AND ISOLATED TORNADOES CAN NOT BE
RULED OUT DUE TO SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF WIND SHEAR IN THE LOWER
ATMOSPHERE. THE THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL EXIST WEST OF A
LINE FROM NEAR VIENNA TO GAINESVILLE THROUGH 6 AM.

HEAVY RAIN AND FLASH FLOODING ARE ALSO POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT ACROSS
SOUTHWEST MISSOURI AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST KANSAS AS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING HEAVY RAINFALL TRAVEL OVER SIMILAR PATHS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

ONGOING STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY MORNING WILL SHIFT
EAST INTO THE MISSOURI OZARKS. DAYTIME HEATING FRIDAY AFTERNOON
WILL LIKELY RESULT IN EITHER INTENSIFYING EXISTING STORMS...OR
REDEVELOPING ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS. IF RAIN AND CLOUD COVER
CONTAMINATE THE OSAGE PLAINS AND OZARKS AIRMASS THROUGHOUT MOST
OF FRIDAY...THEN THE RISK FOR ADDITIONAL SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
WOULD DECREASE.

HOWEVER...IF THE OSAGE PLAINS AND OZARKS AIRMASS REMAINS SUNNY
AND THE ATMOSPHERE DESTABILIZES AS A RESULT OF DAYTIME HEATING
...EXPECTED WIND SHEAR MAGNITUDES WOULD CREATE AN ENVIRONMENT FOR
ALL MODES OF SEVERE WEATHER INCLUDING DAMAGING WINDS...LARGE
HAIL...AND TORNADOES. THE POTENTIAL SLOW MOVEMENT OF THIS
ACTIVITY WILL RESULT IN HEAVY RAINFALL AND A LOCALIZED RISK OF
FLASH FLOODING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

  SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED THROUGH TONIGHT.

&&

THIS PRODUCT IS NOW AVAILABLE IN GRAPHICAL FORMAT...ALONG WITH
OTHER WEATHER...HYDROLOGICAL AND CLIMATE INFORMATION...AT
HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/SGF(ALL LOWERCASE)

ANGLE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
224 AM CDT FRI JUN 06 2008

..TIME..    ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION.. ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0221 AM     TSTM WND DMG     3 N PIERCE CITY         36.99N  94.00W
06/06/2008                   LAWRENCE           MO   AMATEUR RADIO

            LARGE TREE DOWN ACROSS ROAD.

&&

HATCH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
230 AM CDT FRI JUN 06 2008

..TIME..    ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION.. ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0229 AM     TSTM WND GST     EL DORADO SPRINGS       37.88N  94.02W
06/06/2008  E65 MPH          CEDAR              MO   PUBLIC

&&

HATCH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
242 AM CDT FRI JUN 06 2008

..TIME..    ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION.. ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0241 AM     TSTM WND GST     MILLER                  37.21N  93.84W
06/06/2008  E70 MPH          LAWRENCE           MO   PUBLIC

            WINDS ESTIMATED AT 60 TO 70 MPH.

&&

HATCH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
254 AM CDT FRI JUN 06 2008

..TIME..    ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION.. ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0250 AM     TSTM WND GST     MOUNT VERNON            37.10N  93.82W
06/06/2008  E60 MPH          LAWRENCE           MO   PUBLIC

&&

HATCH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
318 AM CDT FRI JUN 06 2008

..TIME..    ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION.. ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0255 AM     TSTM WND GST     MONETT                  36.92N  93.93W
06/06/2008  E70 MPH          BARRY              MO   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            OFFICER INDICATED WINDS OF 60 TO 70 MPH.

&&

HATCH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
407 AM CDT FRI JUN 06 2008

..TIME..    ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION.. ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0406 AM     HAIL             4 NE SPRINGFIELD        37.24N  93.23W
06/06/2008  E0.50 INCH       GREENE             MO   EMERGENCY MNGR

&&

HATCH