Severe Thunderstorm Warning 125, NWS Springfield, MO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
544 AM CDT THU APR 10 2008

...UPDATE TO AVIATION...

.DISCUSSION...

MAIN FOCUS THIS PERIOD WILL CONTINUE TO BE WITH STRONG LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM AS IT LIFTS INTO THE REGION TODAY AND THE
RESULTANT HEAVY RAIN/FLASH FLOODING/SEVERE WEATHER THREATS.

MAIN SURFACE LOW WAS BEGINNING TO SHIFT NORTHEAST INTO NORTHEAST
TEXAS THIS MORNING. WARM FRONT EXTENDED EAST ACROSS CENTRAL
ARKANSAS. MID TO UPPER 60S DEW POINTS WERE LOCATED SOUTH OF THE
FRONT WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S...WHILE
TEMPERATURES/DEWPOINTS WERE IN THE LOW TO MID 50S NORTH OF THE
FRONT OVER SOUTHERN MISSOURI AS OF 06Z. LOW LEVEL JET CRANKING UP
WITH PROFILERS/VWP SHOWING 40 TO 50 KTS AT 850MB. THIS WAS
ALLOWING TREMENDOUS AMOUNTS OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO ADVECT
NORTHWARD INTO THE AREA WITH MODERATE TO HEAVY PRECIPITATION
CONTINUING ACROSS THE CWA NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT TONIGHT. WE
CURRENTLY HAVE FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS COVERING THE ENTIRE AREA AS
GROUND REMAINS TOTALLY SATURATED FROM RECENT RECORD RAINFALL THE
PAST COUPLE OF MONTHS. HEAVY PRECIPITATION EXTENDS WELL BACK INTO
CENTRAL TEXAS AND THE HEAVY RAIN WILL LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING.

AS LOW LIFTS NORTHEAST THE REST OF THE OVERNIGHT AND INTO EASTERN
KANSAS EARLY THURSDAY MORNING IT WILL OCCLUDE WITH WARM FRONT
LIFTING NORTH INTO SOUTHERN MISSOURI. COULD SEE SOME THUNDERSTORMS
BECOME SEVERE ALONG THE WARM FRONT AS IT LIFTS NORTH INTO THE
AREA. GIVEN THE AMOUNTS OF LOW LEVEL SHEAR...SOME ISOLATED
TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS MORNING ACROSS SOUTHERN MISSOURI.

DRIER AIR SHOULD BEGIN TO PUSH INTO WESTERN MISSOURI LATE THIS
MORNING AND WILL LIKELY SEE HEAVIEST RAIN SHIFTING EAST
ACROSS THE CWA FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. AHEAD OF
THE DRY SURGE OVER THE EASTERN MISSOURI OZARKS...THE CHANCE FOR
TORNADOES WILL INCREASE SHOULD DISCRETE SUPERCELLS DEVELOP. THIS
WILL LIKELY DEPEND ON HOW MUCH CLEARING FROM MORNING HEAVY RAIN
CAN TAKE PLACE WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR.

LINE OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ALONG AND AHEAD OF COLD FRONT WILL
ALSO HAVE THE POSSIBILITY OF EMBEDDED TORNADOES GIVEN THE LOW
LEVEL SHEAR PROFILES...HOWEVER MAIN THREAT WILL BE WITH DAMAGING
STRAIGHT LINE WINDS...LARGE HAIL AND CONTINUED FLOODING.

STRONG SYNOPTIC SCALE WINDS ARE EXPECTED OVER WESTERN MISSOURI AND
SOUTHEAST KANSAS TODAY EAST OF THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER. IF SOME
CLEARING CAN TAKE PLACE WITH THE DRY SLOT MOVING IN...COULD SEE
SOME WIND GUSTS APPROACH WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA.

CYCLONIC FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVER THE AREA FROM FRIDAY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND WITH MUCH COOLER AIR MOVING INTO THE AREA. SEVERAL
SHORTWAVES WILL PUSH THROUGH THE AREA AND WILL BRING SCATTERED
AREAS OF PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA...ESPECIALLY OVER CENTRAL AND
EASTERN MISSOURI. FORECAST THERMAL PROFILES ARE INDICATING THAT
THERE COULD BE SNOW SHOWERS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY
MORNING...HOWEVER NOT EXPECTING ANY ACCUMULATIONS.

COULD SEE FROST/FREEZE BY SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING AS
SURFACE RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD INTO THE AREA AND WINDS DIMINISH
WITH CLEARING SKY.

WARMING TREND SHOULD BEGIN BY TUESDAY AS RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS TO THE
EAST AND UPPER RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD INTO THE AREA.

LINDENBERG

&&

.AVIATION...

FOR THE 12Z TAFS...CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE AT BOTH JLN/SGF
THROUGH THE MID MORNING HOURS IN ADVANCE OF THE WARM FRONT. WINDS
WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE AT 15 TO 25 KTS FROM THE SOUTH AS THE WARM
FRONT MOVES THROUGH. A DRY PUNCH OF AIR WILL BEGIN TO NOSE INTO
SOUTHWEST MISSOURI AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS BY LATE MORNING AND SHOULD
BEGIN TO CLEAR OUT THE PRECIPITATION AND SKY COVER AT BOTH
JLN/SGF. WINDS WILL LIKELY INCREASE INTO THE 20 TO 35 KT RANGE
WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS POSSIBLE. THUNDERSTORMS WILL POSSIBLY
DEVELOP ALONG THE COLD FRONT LATER IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
BUT FOR NOW HAVE LEFT OUT OF TERMINAL FORECASTS.

LINDENBERG

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR MOZ055>058-066>071-
     077>083-088>098-101>106.

     WIND ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING
     FOR MOZ066-067-077-078-088-089-093-094-101-102.

KS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR KSZ073-097-101.

     WIND ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING
     FOR KSZ073-097-101.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
449 AM CDT THU APR 10 2008

KSZ073-097-101-MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106-111000-
BOURBON-CRAWFORD-CHEROKEE-BENTON-MORGAN-MILLER-MARIES-VERNON-
ST. CLAIR-HICKORY-CAMDEN-PULASKI-PHELPS-BARTON-CEDAR-POLK-DALLAS-
LACLEDE-TEXAS-DENT-JASPER-DADE-GREENE-WEBSTER-WRIGHT-NEWTON-
LAWRENCE-CHRISTIAN-DOUGLAS-HOWELL-SHANNON-MCDONALD-BARRY-STONE-
TANEY-OZARK-OREGON-
449 AM CDT THU APR 10 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF THE MISSOURI
OZARKS AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

  WEATHER HAZARDS EXPECTED:

SIGNIFICANT FLASH FLOODING EXPECTED.

SEVERE STORMS PRODUCING...
  ISOLATED TORNADOES...
  LARGE HAIL TO THE SIZE OF QUARTERS...
  DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH.

DISCUSSION:

SIGNIFICANT FLASH FLOODING IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGHOUT MOST
OF THE MISSOURI OZARKS AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS TODAY. NEARLY
CONTINUOUS HEAVY RAINFALL OCCURRED OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE AREA
ALREADY BRINGING 2 TO 4 INCHES OF RAINFALL TO SOME OF THE AREA.
MORE HEAVY RAINFALL WILL PUSH ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING WITH
ANOTHER 1 TO 3 INCHES OF RAIN POSSIBLE. SIGNIFICANT FLASH FLOODING
WILL LIKELY CONTINUE MUCH OF THE DAY DUE TO THE HEAVY RAIN.

AS THE WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH INTO SOUTH AND CENTRAL MISSOURI THIS
MORNING...STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AS THE
ATMOSPHERE BECOMES MORE UNSTABLE. ALONG THE FRONT...ISOLATED
TORNADOES...DAMAGING WIND AND LARGE HAIL WILL ALL BE POSSIBLE.

ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT OF STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AS A DRY LINE
AND COLD FRONT MOVE INTO THE AREA LATER IN THE DAY. DUE TO THE
AMOUNT OF WIND SHEAR IN THE AREA...MORE SEVERE STORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE INCLUDING TORNADOES...LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND DURING
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THIS SECOND ROUND OF POSSIBLE SEVERE
WEATHER WILL MAIN AFFECT AREAS OF THE EASTERN OZARKS LATER IN THE DAY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

FLOODING WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING ACROSS THE AREA INTO
FRIDAY...ESPECIALLY ALONG RIVERS AND STREAMS.

SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH SATURDAY WITH
SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING AS
TEMPERATURES DROP BACK INTO THE MIDDLE 30S. NO SNOW ACCUMULATION
IS EXPECTED.

THE BEST CHANCE AT A FROST OR FREEZE WILL BE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY MORNING AS AN AREA OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO PUSH
INTO THE REGION.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

 SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THROUGHOUT THE DAY ACROSS THE
MISSOURI OZARKS AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS. IN ADDITION...RAINFALL AND
FLOODING REPORTS CAN BE RELAYED TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
THROUGH THE EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT OFFICE OR LOCAL LAW ENFORCEMENT.

&&

THIS PRODUCT IS NOW AVAILABLE IN GRAPHICAL FORMAT...ALONG WITH
OTHER WEATHER...HYDROLOGICAL AND CLIMATE INFORMATION...AT
HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/SGF(ALL LOWERCASE)

LINDENBERG

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