River Flood Warning 50, NWS Springfield, MO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
643 PM CDT WED APR 9 2008

.DISCUSSION...

STRONG STORM SYSTEM TAKING SHAPE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND WILL
AFFECT THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY EVENING.
THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLASH FLOODING...ALL
MODES OF SEVERE WEATHER INCLUDING LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND
TORNADOES TO THE AREA.

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT AND THURSDAY)...

CURRENTLY THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT PASSED THROUGH THE REGION
YESTERDAY IS LOCATED ROUGHLY FROM MEMPHIS TO DALLAS THIS
AFTERNOON. A THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX THAT DEVELOPED OVER THE TEXAS
PANHANDLE THIS MORNING...HAS NOW MOVED TO THE NORTHEAST INTO
NORTHERN OKLAHOMA AND SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. A UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
IS MOVING EAST ACROSS THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN REGION.

THE THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH TO THE NORTHEAST
THIS EVENING....ENTERING THE WESTERN CWA LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THE
MAIN THREATS WITH THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE HEAVY RAINFALL AS IT
REMAINS WELL NORTH OF THE SURFACE FRONT. CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW
STORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SMALL HAIL. RAINFALL RATES ACROSS
NORTHERN OKLAHOMA HAVE BEEN AROUND A HALF AN INCH PER HOUR IN THE
HEAVIER SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. WITH THE COMPLEX EXTENDING
THROUGH MUCH OF OKLAHOMA FROM NORTH TO SOUTH...THIS MAY LEAD TO
TRAINING OF STORMS THAT COULD RESULT IN FLASH FLOODING. BY
EXTRAPOLATING THE CURRENT MOVEMENT AND DIRECTION THIS COMPLEX IS
TAKING...THE MOST LIKELY AREAS TO RECEIVE THE GREATEST AMOUNT OF
RAINFALL WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE OVER THE WESTERN AND
NORTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. WE CONTINUE THE FLASH FLOOD
WATCH FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH TOMORROW EVENING TO ACCOUNT FOR
THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL.

THIS EVENING...SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL STRENGTHEN OVER WESTERN
TEXAS AND MOVE TO THE NORTHEAST AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES
INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS WILL PUSH THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY NORTHWARD INTO THE AREA. ABUNDANT MOISTURE WILL BE
AVAILABLE...SURGING INTO THE AREA AS THE GULF REMAINS WIDE UP. AS
A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET SETS UP OVERNIGHT...WITH 850MB WINDS OF
50KTS. COULD DEFINITELY SEE SCATTERED ACTIVITY DEVELOP ALONG THE
FRONT AS IT PUSHES BACK TO THE NORTH OVERNIGHT. THIS ACTIVITY WILL
REMAIN ELEVATED AND THE SEVERE THREAT WILL BE MINIMAL...BUT SOME
OF THE STRONGER STORMS COULD POSSIBLE PRODUCE MARGINALLY SEVERE
HAIL. THE MAIN HAZARDS WILL BE WITH HEAVY RAINFALL...ESPECIALLY
IN AREAS THAT RECEIVE TRAINING OF STORMS.

BY TOMORROW MORNING THE WARM FRONT SHOULD MOVE TO THE NORTH INTO
CENTRAL MISSOURI...LEAVING THE MUCH OF THE OUTLOOK AREA IN THE
WARM SECTOR. WITH THE WARM FRONT MOVING TO OUR NORTH...MOST OF
THE TSRA ACTIVITY SHOULD PUSH OUT OF THE NORTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF
THE CWA BY MORNING. THIS WILL BE JUST IN TIME FOR THE NEXT ROUND
OF STORMS...WITH BETTER CHANCES FOR SEVERE WEATHER. LATE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING...WHEN THE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
DEVELOPS OVER TEXAS...IT WILL PUSH A DRY LINE ACROSS CENTRAL
TEXAS. STORMS WILL DEVELOP ALONG THIS LINE AND THEN PUSH TO THE
NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT. THESE STORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP AS SUPERCELLS
ACROSS TEXAS AND EVOLVE INTO A STRONG LINE OF STORMS AS IT MOVES TO
THE NORTHEAST. AROUND DAYBREAK THIS LINE OF STORMS IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE INTO THE AREA. THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BE UNSTABLE AND WIND SHEAR
WILL BE SIGNIFICANT...PRODUCING A SQUALL LINE WITH STRONG WINDS
AND LARGE HAIL POSSIBLE. WITH THE MOISTURE GETTING PULLED INTO
THE AREA...THESE STORMS WILL LIKELY BE ABLE TO BECOME SURFACE
BASED. GIVEN THE WIND SHEAR THAT WILL BE IN PLACE...EMBEDDED
TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE WITHIN THIS LINE EARLY IN THE DAY
ACROSS THE WESTERN CWA. THIS LINE WILL CONTINUE TO MARCH EAST AND
ALL MODES OF SEVERE WEATHER WILL SPREAD EAST ACROSS THE REST OF
THE CWA.

THERE IS STILL SOME QUESTION HOW THIS LINE OF STORMS WILL AFFECT
THE AREA ACROSS THE EASTERN CWA. IF THE LINE MOVES THROUGH QUICKLY
AND THE AREA CLEARS OUT WE IT WILL BE POSSIBLE TO SEE A THIRD ROUND
OF STORMS. THIS WOULD BE ALONG THE DRY LINE AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE
AREA...MAINLY EAST OF 65. WITH WIND SHEAR STILL IN PLACE...AND IF
INSTABILITY REDEVELOPS...SUPERCELL STORMS MAY ONCE AGAIN DEVELOP
ALONG THIS LINE. LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WIND AND TORNADOES WOULD BE
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE EASTERN CWA DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING.

WISE

THURSDAY NIGHT...ONGOING CONVECTION WILL LIKELY BE OVER THE FAR
EASTERN CWA AT THE START OF THE PERIOD...WITH A BRIEF WINDOW OF
OPPORTUNITY FOR DEVELOPMENT NEAR THE TRIPLE POINT IN CENTRAL
MISSOURI. ALL SEVERE WEATHER SHOULD EXIT STAGE EAST BY MID EVENING
WITH COOL AND DRY AIR ADVECTION BEGINNING TO TAKE HOLD OVERNIGHT.

FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...THE UPPER LOW RESPONSIBLE FOR OUR
ACTIVE WEATHER WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY WILL FILL AND MOVE VERY
LITTLE ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS
WILL LEAVE THE REGION IN NORTHERLY FLOW AND PRONE TO AN OCCASIONAL
LOBE OR TWO OF VORTICITY TO ROTATE THROUGH THE AREA. ISOLATED TO LOW
END SCATTERED DAYTIME SHOWERS CAN BE EXPECTED FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...
UNDER A MAINLY CLOUDY SKY. CLOUDS WILL ACT TO PREVENT RADIATIONAL
COOLING FRIDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHTS...KEEPING LOWS ABOVE FREEZING FOR
THE MOST PART. UNFORTUNATELY...THESE SAME CLOUDS...WITH CONTINUED
COOLING ALOFT...WILL RESULT IN UNSEASONABLY COOL DAYS. HIGHS WILL BE
IN THE 50S FRIDAY WITH AT LEAST SOME MIXING EXPECTED...HOWEVER IT
WILL BE TOUGH TO WARM MUCH THROUGH THE 40S ON SATURDAY WITH A FEW
SNOWFLAKES MIXING IN WITH THE ISO/SCT SHRA ACTIVITY GIVEN THE COLUMN
BEING ALMOST ENTIRELY BELOW FREEZING.

IF CLEARING OCCURS QUICKER THAN FORECAST LATE SATURDAY AND SATURDAY
NIGHT...THERE WILL BE AN ELEVATED RISK FOR A FROST AND POSSIBLY A
FREEZE SATURDAY NIGHT.

SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...IN GENERAL...THE GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE
TO AGREE WITH THE OVERALL UPPER LEVEL PATTERN EVOLUTION AND A DRY
STRETCH OF WEATHER. THERE REMAINS SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES DURING THE
FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK...MAINLY AFFECTING THE TIMING OF OUR WARMING
TREND. THE GFS IS A BIT MORE BULLISH IN WARMING VERSUS THE ECMWF...
AND AT THIS JUNCTURE THERE IS NO REASON TO SIDE WITH ONE MODEL OVER
ANOTHER. AS A RESULT..GENERALLY FOLLOWED THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN WHICH
IS A FAIR BLEND BETWEEN TO THE TWO OPERATIONAL SOLUTIONS.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW AVERAGE SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT.
THERE REMAINS A RISK FOR A FROST/FREEZE SUNDAY NIGHT AS A SFC HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE IS PARKED OVER THE AREA. AFTER THIS...TEMPS SHOULD
QUICKLY RETURN TO AT OR ABOVE AVERAGE BY FOR THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT
WEEK. THERE WILL LIKELY BE A FAST MOVING FRONT OR TWO TO RIDE THE
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...BUT MOISTURE LOOKS TO REMAIN MEAGER AND HAVE
MAINTAINED A DRY FORECAST.

GAGAN

GAGAN

&&

.AVIATION...

FOR THE 00Z TAFS...WILL CARRY VICINITY THUNDER WITH MVFR CEILINGS
GRADUALLY FALLING TO IFR BY LATE EVENING AS STRONG VERTICAL MOTION
ASSOCIATED WITH MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVES NORTHEAST FROM SOUTH
CENTRAL OKLAHOMA TO SOUTHEAST KANSAS. WILL GO WITH PREDOMINANT
THUNDERSTORMS FOR BOTH JOPLIN AND SPRINGFIELD DURING MUCH OF THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS AS LOW LEVEL JET INCREASE TO 40-50 KNOTS.

WILL BACK DOWN TO VICINITY THUNDER BY MID MORNING AS FIRST MID
LEVEL DISTURBANCE EXITS THE AREA...BUT SHOULD SEE STORMS REDEVELOP
DURING THE AFTERNOON AS MAIN TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE REGION.

HAVE INCREASED WINDS TO OVER 20 KNOTS SUSTAINED BY MID MORNING
THURSDAY...WITH GUSTS OVER 30 MPH ESPECIALLY LATE IN THE AFTERNOON
WHEN THE DRYLINE PUSHED ACROSS THE AIRPORTS.

TERRY

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE THURSDAY NIGHT FOR MOZ055>058-
     066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106.

KS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE THURSDAY NIGHT FOR KSZ073-097-101.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
123 PM CDT WED APR 9 2008

KSZ073-097-101-MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106-101830-
BOURBON-CRAWFORD-CHEROKEE-BENTON-MORGAN-MILLER-MARIES-VERNON-
ST. CLAIR-HICKORY-CAMDEN-PULASKI-PHELPS-BARTON-CEDAR-POLK-DALLAS-
LACLEDE-TEXAS-DENT-JASPER-DADE-GREENE-WEBSTER-WRIGHT-NEWTON-
LAWRENCE-CHRISTIAN-DOUGLAS-HOWELL-SHANNON-MCDONALD-BARRY-STONE-
TANEY-OZARK-OREGON-
123 PM CDT WED APR 9 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF THE MISSOURI
OZARKS AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

  WEATHER HAZARDS EXPECTED:

 HAIL TO THE SIZE OF QUARTERS ACROSS THE ENTIRE OUTLOOK AREA.
 DAMAGING WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH ACROSS PORTIONS OF
 EXTREME SOUTHEAST KANSAS AND PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST MISSOURI.

  AREAS AFFECTED AND TIMING:

 THUNDERSTORMS WILL EXPAND IN COVERAGE ACROSS THE REGION LATE THIS
 AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING...WITH AN ADDITIONAL COMPLEX OF
 THUNDERSTORMS APPROACHING EXTREME SOUTHEAST KANSAS AND SOUTHWEST
 MISSOURI BY DAYBREAK THURSDAY.

  DISCUSSION:

 A THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX OVER TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA WILL TRACK TO THE
 NORTHEAST AND INTO THE AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING.
 THIS ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN NORTH OF A NEARLY STATIONARY WARM FRONT
 THAT EXTENDS FROM CENTRAL ARKANSAS SOUTHWESTWARD INTO TEXAS.
 ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HAIL TO THE SIZE OF
 QUARTERS CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THIS ACTIVITY. AND DAMAGING WINDS
 THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT MAINLY ACROSS SOUTHEAST KANSAS AND
 EXTREME SOUTHWEST MISSOURI.

 THE WARM FRONT WILL LIFT TO THE NORTH INTO SOUTHERN MISSOURI
 TONIGHT AND INTO CENTRAL MISSOURI BY DAYBREAK THURSDAY.
 THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER SOUTHERN MISSOURI AND
 SOUTHEAST KANSAS LATE TONIGHT. THESE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
 CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HAIL TO THE SIZE OF QUARTERS AND WIND GUSTS
 IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH.

 HEAVY RAIN IS EXPECTED WITH THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TONIGHT...WITH
 THE HEAVIEST RAIN EXPECTED TO SET UP OVER THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS
 OF THE OUTLOOK AREA. WIDESPREAD RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES
 WILL BE POSSIBLE...WITH LOCALLY HEAVIER AMOUNTS IN AREAS THAT
 RECEIVE TRAINING OF STORMS.

 AS A STRONG AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LIFTS INTO SOUTHEAST KANSAS
 TONIGHT...SURFACE WINDS OF 20 TO 30 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS WILL BE
 POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTHEAST KANSAS AND SOUTHWEST MISSOURI.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

 STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BE ONGOING
 THURSDAY MORNING AS ANOTHER COMPLEX OF STORMS APPROACHES FROM THE
 SOUTHWEST. THE ATMOSPHERE ACROSS THE OUTLOOK AREA WILL BECOME
 INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE WITH SIGNIFICANT WIND SHEAR IN PLACE. AS
 THIS COMPLEX OF STORMS MOVES INTO THE AREA...SEVERE WEATHER IS
 EXPECTED. ALL MODES OF SEVERE WEATHER ARE EXPECTED...INCLUDING
 DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL...WITH ISOLATED TORNADOES
 POSSIBLE GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF WIND SHEAR AND INSTABILITY EXPECTED.
 THE LINE WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH EAST ACROSS THE OUTLOOK AREA
 DURING INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS...WHERE CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN
 FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE STORMS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EARLY
 EVENING...LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND TORNADOES ARE ALL
 POSSIBLE.

 LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL ALSO ACCOMPANY THE THUNDERSTORMS ON
 THURSDAY AND WILL ADD TO THE FLOOD THREAT THROUGHOUT THE AREA. A
 FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH
 THURSDAY EVENING.

 UNSEASONABLY COOL TEMPERATURES WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA THIS
 WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL FLIRT WITH THE FREEZING MARK BOTH
 SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY NIGHT. THE PRESENCE OF NORTHERLY WINDS
 AND CLOUD COVER WILL LIKELY PREVENT FROST DEVELOPMENT SATURDAY
 NIGHT. SUNDAY NIGHT WILL PROVIDE THE BEST CHANCE FOR FROST
 DEVELOPMENT...AND POSSIBLY A FREEZE...AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
 OVERHEAD AND WINDS BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE UNDER A CLEAR SKY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

 SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED LATE TONIGHT AND THURSDAY.

&&

THIS PRODUCT IS NOW AVAILABLE IN GRAPHICAL FORMAT...ALONG WITH
OTHER WEATHER...HYDROLOGICAL AND CLIMATE INFORMATION...AT
HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/SGF(ALL LOWERCASE)

WISE/GAGAN