Flash Flood Warning 41, NWS Springfield, MO

000 
WGUS73 KSGF 100254
FFSSGF

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
949 PM CDT WED APR 9 2008

KSC011-021-037-MOC009-011-043-057-077-097-109-119-145-209-213-217-
101100-
/O.CON.KSGF.FF.W.0041.000000T0000Z-080410T1100Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
BOURBON KS-CRAWFORD KS-CHEROKEE KS-LAWRENCE MO-JASPER MO-GREENE MO-
DADE MO-BARTON MO-STONE MO-VERNON MO-CHRISTIAN MO-NEWTON MO-BARRY MO-
TANEY MO-MCDONALD MO-
949 PM CDT WED APR 9 2008

...A FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 600 AM CDT THURSDAY
FOR BARRY...BARTON...BOURBON...CHEROKEE...CHRISTIAN...CRAWFORD...
DADE...GREENE...JASPER...LAWRENCE...MCDONALD...NEWTON...STONE...TANEY
AND VERNON COUNTIES...

AT 947 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS
THE WARNED AREA. RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT WITH AREAS OF
FLASH FLOODING DEVELOPING. RAINFALL RATES OF A QUARTER TO THREE
QUARTERS OF AN INCH PER HOUR WILL BE POSSIBLE. BY THURSDAY
MORNING...RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF ONE TO TWO INCHES WITH LOCALLY
HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED.

RUNOFF FROM THIS EXCESSIVE RAINFALL WILL CAUSE FLASH FLOODING TO
OCCUR. SOME LOCATIONS THAT MAY EXPERIENCE FLASH FLOODING INCLUDE...
ARMA...AURORA...BATTLEFIELD...BAXTER SPRINGS...BRANSON...CARONA...
CARTHAGE...CASSVILLE...CHEROKEE...COLUMBUS...ENGLEVALE...FORSYTH...
FORT SCOTT...FRONTENAC...GALENA AND SPRINGFIELD.

A FLASH FLOOD WARNING MEANS THAT FLOODING IS IMMINENT OR OCCURRING.
RESIDENTS LIVING ALONG STREAMS AND CREEKS SHOULD TAKE IMMEDIATE
PRECAUTIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY. DO NOT ATTEMPT TO CROSS
SWIFTLY FLOWING WATERS OR WATERS OF UNKNOWN DEPTH BY FOOT OR BY
AUTOMOBILE.

LAT...LON 3649 9461 3698 9463 3700 9508 3803 9508
      3804 9408 3757 9408 3757 9363 3742 9363
      3741 9307 3707 9307 3708 9291 3682 9292
      3680 9277 3650 9278
TIME...MOT...LOC 0249Z 180DEG 0KT 3720 9374

$$

ANGLE

000 
WGUS73 KSGF 100655
FFSSGF

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
149 AM CDT THU APR 10 2008

KSC011-021-037-MOC009-011-043-057-077-097-109-119-145-209-213-217-
101100-
/O.CON.KSGF.FF.W.0041.000000T0000Z-080410T1100Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
BOURBON KS-CRAWFORD KS-CHEROKEE KS-LAWRENCE MO-JASPER MO-GREENE MO-
DADE MO-BARTON MO-STONE MO-VERNON MO-CHRISTIAN MO-NEWTON MO-BARRY MO-
TANEY MO-MCDONALD MO-
149 AM CDT THU APR 10 2008

...A FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 600 AM CDT FOR
BARRY...BARTON...BOURBON...CHEROKEE...CHRISTIAN...CRAWFORD...DADE...
GREENE...JASPER...LAWRENCE...MCDONALD...NEWTON...STONE...TANEY AND
VERNON COUNTIES...

AT 146 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING MODERATE TO HEAVY
RAINFALL ACROSS THE WARNED AREA. ONE TO THREE INCHES OF RAIN HAS
FALLEN WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS.

ADDITIONAL RAINFALL OF ONE TO TWO INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH
6 AM. SOME OF THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL WILL OCCUR NEAR BAXTER SPRINGS
TO NEAR CARTHAGE TO NEAR EVERTON.

RUNOFF FROM THIS EXCESSIVE RAINFALL WILL CAUSE FLASH FLOODING TO
OCCUR. SOME LOCATIONS THAT MAY EXPERIENCE FLASH FLOODING INCLUDE...
ARMA...AURORA...BATTLEFIELD...BAXTER SPRINGS...BRANSON...CARONA...
CARTHAGE...CASSVILLE...CHEROKEE...COLUMBUS...ENGLEVALE...FORSYTH...
FORT SCOTT...FRONTENAC AND GALENA.

FLOODING IS OCCURRING OR IS IMMINENT. MOST FLOOD RELATED DEATHS OCCUR
IN AUTOMOBILES. DO NOT ATTEMPT TO CROSS WATER COVERED BRIDGES...
DIPS...OR LOW WATER CROSSINGS. NEVER TRY TO CROSS A FLOWING STREAM...
EVEN A SMALL ONE...ON FOOT OR IN A VEHICLE.

LAT...LON 3649 9461 3698 9463 3700 9508 3803 9508
      3804 9408 3757 9408 3757 9363 3742 9363
      3741 9307 3707 9307 3708 9291 3682 9292
      3680 9277 3650 9278
TIME...MOT...LOC 0649Z 180DEG 0KT 3720 9374

$$

ANGLE

000 
WGUS73 KSGF 101018
FFSSGF

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
511 AM CDT THU APR 10 2008

KSC011-021-037-MOC009-011-043-057-077-097-109-119-145-209-213-217-
101100-
/O.CON.KSGF.FF.W.0041.000000T0000Z-080410T1100Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
BOURBON KS-CRAWFORD KS-CHEROKEE KS-LAWRENCE MO-JASPER MO-GREENE MO-
DADE MO-BARTON MO-STONE MO-VERNON MO-CHRISTIAN MO-NEWTON MO-BARRY MO-
TANEY MO-MCDONALD MO-
511 AM CDT THU APR 10 2008

...A FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 600 AM CDT FOR
BARRY...BARTON...BOURBON...CHEROKEE...CHRISTIAN...CRAWFORD...DADE...
GREENE...JASPER...LAWRENCE...MCDONALD...NEWTON...STONE...TANEY AND
VERNON COUNTIES...

AT 506 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED THAT
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL WAS PRODUCING FLASH FLOODING ACROSS THE WARNED 
AREA. A LARGE AREA OF ONE TO TWO INCHES OF RAIN FELL OVERNIGHT WITH 
LOCALIZED AREAS OF THREE INCHES NEAR JOPLIN AND MOUNT VERNON. 

RAINFALL RATES HAVE BEEN AVERAGING BETWEEN ONE AND THREE TENTHS PER 
HOUR SINCE MIDNIGHT...WITH LOCALLY ONE HALF INCH AMOUNTS. A LARGE 
AREA OF INCREASING RAINFALL RATES ACROSS NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND 
NORTHWEST ARKANSAS WILL MOVE INTO FAR SOUTHEAST KANSAS AND SOUTHWEST 
MISSOURI DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. THIS AMOUNT OF ADDITIONAL 
RAINFALL AND HIGHER RAINFALL RATES WILL LEAD TO MORE RAPID RUNOFF. 
DUE TO THE OVERALL INCREASE IN RAINFALL RATES THIS MORNING...THE 
FLASH FLOOD WARNING WILL BE EXTENDED AT 6 AM. 

BE ESPECIALLY CAUTIOUS AT NIGHT WHEN IT IS HARDER TO RECOGNIZE THE 
DANGERS OF FLOODING. IF FLASH FLOODING IS OBSERVED ACT QUICKLY. DO 
NOT ENTER THE WATER. TURN AROUND AND MOVE UP TO HIGHER GROUND TO 
ESCAPE FLOOD WATERS. DO NOT STAY IN AREAS SUBJECT TO FLOODING WHEN 
WATER BEGINS RISING.

LAT...LON 3649 9461 3698 9463 3700 9508 3803 9508
      3804 9408 3757 9408 3757 9363 3742 9363
      3741 9307 3707 9307 3708 9291 3682 9292
      3680 9277 3650 9278
TIME...MOT...LOC 1011Z 180DEG 0KT 3720 9374

$$

JLT

000 
WGUS53 KSGF 101046
FFWSGF
KSC011-021-037-MOC009-011-043-057-077-097-109-119-145-209-213-217-
101700-
/O.EXT.KSGF.FF.W.0041.000000T0000Z-080410T1700Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
FLASH FLOOD WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
542 AM CDT THU APR 10 2008

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SPRINGFIELD HAS EXTENDED THE

* FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR...
  BARRY COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST MISSOURI...
  BARTON COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST MISSOURI...
  BOURBON COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST KANSAS...
  CHEROKEE COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST KANSAS...
  CHRISTIAN COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST MISSOURI...
  CRAWFORD COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST KANSAS...
  DADE COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST MISSOURI...
  GREENE COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST MISSOURI...
  JASPER COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST MISSOURI...
  LAWRENCE COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST MISSOURI...
  MCDONALD COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST MISSOURI...
  NEWTON COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST MISSOURI...
  STONE COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST MISSOURI...
  TANEY COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST MISSOURI...
  VERNON COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL MISSOURI...

* UNTIL NOON CDT.

* AT 540 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED 
  THAT EXCESSIVE RAINFALL WAS PRODUCING FLASH FLOODING ACROSS THE 
  WARNED AREA. A LARGE AREA OF ONE TO TWO INCHES OF RAIN FELL 
  OVERNIGHT WITH LOCALIZED AREAS OF THREE INCHES NEAR JOPLIN...
  MOUNT VERNON AND BAXTER SPRINGS. RAINFALL RATES HAVE BEEN 
  AVERAGING BETWEEN ONE AND THREE TENTHS OF AN INCH PER HOUR SINCE
  MIDNIGHT...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS. A LARGE AREA OF INCREASING
  RAINFALL RATES ACROSS NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS 
  WILL MOVE INTO FAR SOUTHEAST KANSAS AND SOUTHWEST MISSOURI DURING 
  THE MORNING HOURS. THIS AMOUNT OF ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AND HIGHER
  RAINFALL RATES WILL LEAD TO MORE RAPID RUNOFF AND FLASH FLOODING. 

* RUNOFF FROM THIS EXCESSIVE RAINFALL IS CAUSING FLASH FLOODING.
  SEVERAL LOW WATER CROSSINGS WERE REPORTED FLOODED AND IMPASSABLE 
  THIS MORNING. 

DO NOT UNDERESTIMATE THE POWER OF FLOOD WATERS. ONLY A FEW INCHES OF
RAPIDLY FLOWING WATER CAN QUICKLY CARRY AWAY YOUR VEHICLE. TURN
AROUND...DONT DROWN.

LAT...LON 3649 9461 3698 9463 3700 9508 3803 9508
      3804 9408 3757 9408 3757 9363 3742 9363
      3741 9307 3707 9307 3708 9291 3682 9292
      3680 9277 3650 9278

$$

JLT

000 
WGUS73 KSGF 101222
FFSSGF

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
716 AM CDT THU APR 10 2008

KSC011-021-037-MOC009-011-043-057-077-097-109-119-145-209-213-217-
101700-
/O.CON.KSGF.FF.W.0041.000000T0000Z-080410T1700Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
BOURBON KS-CRAWFORD KS-CHEROKEE KS-LAWRENCE MO-JASPER MO-GREENE MO-
DADE MO-BARTON MO-STONE MO-VERNON MO-CHRISTIAN MO-NEWTON MO-BARRY MO-
TANEY MO-MCDONALD MO-
716 AM CDT THU APR 10 2008

...A FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON CDT FOR
BARRY...BARTON...BOURBON...CHEROKEE...CHRISTIAN...CRAWFORD...DADE...
GREENE...JASPER...LAWRENCE...MCDONALD...NEWTON...STONE...TANEY AND
VERNON COUNTIES...

AT 713 AM CDT...LOCAL LAW ENFORCEMENT OFFICIALS AND THE MISSOURI 
DEPARTMENT OF TRANSPORTATION REPORTED THAT THE EXCESSIVE RAINFALL 
OVERNIGHT HAS CAUSED NUMEROUS FLOODED ROADWAYS ACROSS THE WARNED 
AREA. SINCE WEDNESDAY EVENING...THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL HAS BEEN 
CONCENTRATED OVER THE SHOAL CREEK AND SPRING RIVER BASINS WITH AN 
AVERAGE OF THREE INCHES BASIN WIDE. ELSEWHERE...RAINFALL AMOUNTS 
HAVE RANGED FROM ONE TO 2.5 INCHES WHICH INCLUDES THE 
SAC...MARMATON...LITTLE OSAGE...OSAGE AND ELK RIVER BASINS. 

LATEST RADAR AS OF 715 AM INDICATED A BREAK IN THE HEAVY RAINFALL 
MOVING INTO FAR SOUTHWEST MISSOURI AND FAR SOUTHEAST KANSAS...WHICH 
WILL MOVE ACROSS SOUTHWEST MISSOURI THIS MORNING. AN ADDITIONAL ONE 
HALF INCH OF RAINFALL IS LIKELY BEFORE IT TAPERS OFF LATER THIS 
MORNING. 

DO NOT UNDERESTIMATE THE POWER OF FLOOD WATERS. ONLY A FEW INCHES OF 
RAPIDLY FLOWING WATER CAN QUICKLY CARRY AWAY YOUR VEHICLE. TURN 
AROUND...DONT DROWN.

LAT...LON 3649 9461 3698 9463 3700 9508 3803 9508
      3804 9408 3757 9408 3757 9363 3742 9363
      3741 9307 3707 9307 3708 9291 3682 9292
      3680 9277 3650 9278
TIME...MOT...LOC 1216Z 180DEG 0KT 3720 9374

$$

JLT

000 
WGUS73 KSGF 101357
FFSSGF

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
853 AM CDT THU APR 10 2008

KSC011-021-037-MOC009-011-043-057-077-097-109-119-145-209-213-217-
101700-
/O.CON.KSGF.FF.W.0041.000000T0000Z-080410T1700Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
BOURBON KS-CRAWFORD KS-CHEROKEE KS-LAWRENCE MO-JASPER MO-GREENE MO-
DADE MO-BARTON MO-STONE MO-VERNON MO-CHRISTIAN MO-NEWTON MO-BARRY MO-
TANEY MO-MCDONALD MO-
853 AM CDT THU APR 10 2008

...A FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON CDT FOR
BARRY...BARTON...BOURBON...CHEROKEE...CHRISTIAN...CRAWFORD...DADE...
GREENE...JASPER...LAWRENCE...MCDONALD...NEWTON...STONE...TANEY AND
VERNON COUNTIES...

AT 850 AM CDT...LOCAL LAW ENFORCEMENT OFFICIALS AND THE MISSOURI 
DEPARTMENT OF TRANSPORTATION REPORTED THAT NUMEROUS ROADS AND LOW 
WATER CROSSINGS ARE FLOODED AND IMPASSABLE DUE TO EXCESSIVE RAINFALL 
OVERNIGHT. FOR THE LATEST ROAD CLOSURES...PLEASE GO TO THE MISSOURI 
DEPARTMENT OF TRANSPORTATION WEB PAGE. 

ALTHOUGH THE MORNING HEAVY RAINFALL HAS ENDED...RUNOFF WAS NOT 
COMPLETE AND THIS RUNOFF WILL CONTINUE TO CAUSE RAPID RISES IN AREA 
STREAMS AND CREEKS. 

DO NOT UNDERESTIMATE THE POWER OF FLOOD WATERS. ONLY A FEW INCHES OF 
RAPIDLY FLOWING WATER CAN QUICKLY CARRY AWAY YOUR VEHICLE. TURN 
AROUND...DONT DROWN.

LAT...LON 3649 9461 3698 9463 3700 9508 3803 9508
      3804 9408 3757 9408 3757 9363 3742 9363
      3741 9307 3707 9307 3708 9291 3682 9292
      3680 9277 3650 9278
TIME...MOT...LOC 1353Z 180DEG 0KT 3720 9374

$$

JLT

000 
WGUS73 KSGF 101606
FFSSGF

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1104 AM CDT THU APR 10 2008

KSC011-021-037-MOC009-011-043-057-077-097-109-119-145-209-213-217-
101700-
/O.CON.KSGF.FF.W.0041.000000T0000Z-080410T1700Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
BOURBON KS-CRAWFORD KS-CHEROKEE KS-LAWRENCE MO-JASPER MO-GREENE MO-
DADE MO-BARTON MO-STONE MO-VERNON MO-CHRISTIAN MO-NEWTON MO-BARRY MO-
TANEY MO-MCDONALD MO-
1104 AM CDT THU APR 10 2008

...A FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON CDT FOR
BARRY...BARTON...BOURBON...CHEROKEE...CHRISTIAN...CRAWFORD...DADE...
GREENE...JASPER...LAWRENCE...MCDONALD...NEWTON...STONE...TANEY AND
VERNON COUNTIES...

AT 1102 AM CDT...LOCAL LAW ENFORCEMENT OFFICIALS AND THE MISSOURI 
DEPARTMENT OF TRANSPORTATION CONTINUED TO REPORT NUMEROUS FLOODED 
ROADWAYS ACROSS THE OZARKS AND FAR SOUTHEAST KANSAS DUE TO EXCESSIVE 
RAINFALL OVERNIGHT AND THIS MORNING. ALTHOUGH THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL 
HAS ENDED THIS MORNING....SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL 
ONCE AGAIN DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE WARNED AREA...AND 
PRODUCE ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINFALL. 

THIS FLASH FLOOD WARNING WILL LIKELY BE DROPPED WITH AN ISSUANCE OF 
AN AREAL FLOOD WARNING AT NOON. IF RAINFALL RATES ONCE AGAIN 
INCREASE SUBSTANTIALLY THIS AFTERNOON...A FLASH FLOOD WARNING WILL 
BE REISSUED FOR A PORTION OF THE WARNED AREA. PLEASE REFER TO THE 
MISSOURI DEPARTMENT OF TRANSPORTATION WEB PAGE OR THE KANSAS 
DEPARTMENT OF TRANSPORTATION FOR ALL MAJOR ROAD CLOSURES DUE TO 
FLOODING. 

DO NOT UNDERESTIMATE THE POWER OF FLOOD WATERS. ONLY A FEW INCHES OF
RAPIDLY FLOWING WATER CAN QUICKLY CARRY AWAY YOUR VEHICLE. TURN
AROUND...DONT DROWN.

LAT...LON 3649 9461 3698 9463 3700 9508 3803 9508
      3804 9408 3757 9408 3757 9363 3742 9363
      3741 9307 3707 9307 3708 9291 3682 9292
      3680 9277 3650 9278
TIME...MOT...LOC 1604Z 180DEG 0KT 3720 9374

$$

JLT

000 
WGUS73 KSGF 101653
FFSSGF

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1151 AM CDT THU APR 10 2008

KSC011-021-037-MOC009-011-043-057-077-097-109-119-145-209-213-217-
101701-
/O.EXP.KSGF.FF.W.0041.000000T0000Z-080410T1700Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
BOURBON KS-CRAWFORD KS-CHEROKEE KS-LAWRENCE MO-JASPER MO-GREENE MO-
DADE MO-BARTON MO-STONE MO-VERNON MO-CHRISTIAN MO-NEWTON MO-BARRY MO-
TANEY MO-MCDONALD MO-
1151 AM CDT THU APR 10 2008

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING WILL EXPIRE AT NOON CDT FOR BARRY...
BARTON...BOURBON...CHEROKEE...CHRISTIAN...CRAWFORD...DADE...GREENE...
JASPER...LAWRENCE...MCDONALD...NEWTON...STONE...TANEY AND VERNON
COUNTIES...

ALTHOUGH THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE...AN 
AREAL FLOOD WARNING WILL BE ISSUED SHORTLY DUE TO THE CONTINUED 
THREAT OF FLOODING OF ACROSS THE OZARKS. IF RAINFALL RATES BEGIN TO 
INCREASE ONCE AGAIN...A FLASH FLOOD WARNING WILL BE REISSUED FOR A 
PART OF THE AREA. 

IF FLOODING HAS BEEN OBSERVED...PLEASE REPORT IT TO YOUR LOCAL LAW 
ENFORCEMENT AGENCY.

LAT...LON 3649 9461 3698 9463 3700 9508 3803 9508
      3804 9408 3757 9408 3757 9363 3742 9363
      3741 9307 3707 9307 3708 9291 3682 9292
      3680 9277 3650 9278
TIME...MOT...LOC 1651Z 180DEG 0KT 3720 9374

$$

JLT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
643 PM CDT WED APR 9 2008

.DISCUSSION...

STRONG STORM SYSTEM TAKING SHAPE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND WILL
AFFECT THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY EVENING.
THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLASH FLOODING...ALL
MODES OF SEVERE WEATHER INCLUDING LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND
TORNADOES TO THE AREA.

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT AND THURSDAY)...

CURRENTLY THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT PASSED THROUGH THE REGION
YESTERDAY IS LOCATED ROUGHLY FROM MEMPHIS TO DALLAS THIS
AFTERNOON. A THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX THAT DEVELOPED OVER THE TEXAS
PANHANDLE THIS MORNING...HAS NOW MOVED TO THE NORTHEAST INTO
NORTHERN OKLAHOMA AND SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. A UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
IS MOVING EAST ACROSS THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN REGION.

THE THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH TO THE NORTHEAST
THIS EVENING....ENTERING THE WESTERN CWA LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THE
MAIN THREATS WITH THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE HEAVY RAINFALL AS IT
REMAINS WELL NORTH OF THE SURFACE FRONT. CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW
STORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SMALL HAIL. RAINFALL RATES ACROSS
NORTHERN OKLAHOMA HAVE BEEN AROUND A HALF AN INCH PER HOUR IN THE
HEAVIER SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. WITH THE COMPLEX EXTENDING
THROUGH MUCH OF OKLAHOMA FROM NORTH TO SOUTH...THIS MAY LEAD TO
TRAINING OF STORMS THAT COULD RESULT IN FLASH FLOODING. BY
EXTRAPOLATING THE CURRENT MOVEMENT AND DIRECTION THIS COMPLEX IS
TAKING...THE MOST LIKELY AREAS TO RECEIVE THE GREATEST AMOUNT OF
RAINFALL WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE OVER THE WESTERN AND
NORTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. WE CONTINUE THE FLASH FLOOD
WATCH FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH TOMORROW EVENING TO ACCOUNT FOR
THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL.

THIS EVENING...SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL STRENGTHEN OVER WESTERN
TEXAS AND MOVE TO THE NORTHEAST AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES
INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS WILL PUSH THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY NORTHWARD INTO THE AREA. ABUNDANT MOISTURE WILL BE
AVAILABLE...SURGING INTO THE AREA AS THE GULF REMAINS WIDE UP. AS
A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET SETS UP OVERNIGHT...WITH 850MB WINDS OF
50KTS. COULD DEFINITELY SEE SCATTERED ACTIVITY DEVELOP ALONG THE
FRONT AS IT PUSHES BACK TO THE NORTH OVERNIGHT. THIS ACTIVITY WILL
REMAIN ELEVATED AND THE SEVERE THREAT WILL BE MINIMAL...BUT SOME
OF THE STRONGER STORMS COULD POSSIBLE PRODUCE MARGINALLY SEVERE
HAIL. THE MAIN HAZARDS WILL BE WITH HEAVY RAINFALL...ESPECIALLY
IN AREAS THAT RECEIVE TRAINING OF STORMS.

BY TOMORROW MORNING THE WARM FRONT SHOULD MOVE TO THE NORTH INTO
CENTRAL MISSOURI...LEAVING THE MUCH OF THE OUTLOOK AREA IN THE
WARM SECTOR. WITH THE WARM FRONT MOVING TO OUR NORTH...MOST OF
THE TSRA ACTIVITY SHOULD PUSH OUT OF THE NORTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF
THE CWA BY MORNING. THIS WILL BE JUST IN TIME FOR THE NEXT ROUND
OF STORMS...WITH BETTER CHANCES FOR SEVERE WEATHER. LATE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING...WHEN THE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
DEVELOPS OVER TEXAS...IT WILL PUSH A DRY LINE ACROSS CENTRAL
TEXAS. STORMS WILL DEVELOP ALONG THIS LINE AND THEN PUSH TO THE
NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT. THESE STORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP AS SUPERCELLS
ACROSS TEXAS AND EVOLVE INTO A STRONG LINE OF STORMS AS IT MOVES TO
THE NORTHEAST. AROUND DAYBREAK THIS LINE OF STORMS IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE INTO THE AREA. THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BE UNSTABLE AND WIND SHEAR
WILL BE SIGNIFICANT...PRODUCING A SQUALL LINE WITH STRONG WINDS
AND LARGE HAIL POSSIBLE. WITH THE MOISTURE GETTING PULLED INTO
THE AREA...THESE STORMS WILL LIKELY BE ABLE TO BECOME SURFACE
BASED. GIVEN THE WIND SHEAR THAT WILL BE IN PLACE...EMBEDDED
TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE WITHIN THIS LINE EARLY IN THE DAY
ACROSS THE WESTERN CWA. THIS LINE WILL CONTINUE TO MARCH EAST AND
ALL MODES OF SEVERE WEATHER WILL SPREAD EAST ACROSS THE REST OF
THE CWA.

THERE IS STILL SOME QUESTION HOW THIS LINE OF STORMS WILL AFFECT
THE AREA ACROSS THE EASTERN CWA. IF THE LINE MOVES THROUGH QUICKLY
AND THE AREA CLEARS OUT WE IT WILL BE POSSIBLE TO SEE A THIRD ROUND
OF STORMS. THIS WOULD BE ALONG THE DRY LINE AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE
AREA...MAINLY EAST OF 65. WITH WIND SHEAR STILL IN PLACE...AND IF
INSTABILITY REDEVELOPS...SUPERCELL STORMS MAY ONCE AGAIN DEVELOP
ALONG THIS LINE. LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WIND AND TORNADOES WOULD BE
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE EASTERN CWA DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING.

WISE

THURSDAY NIGHT...ONGOING CONVECTION WILL LIKELY BE OVER THE FAR
EASTERN CWA AT THE START OF THE PERIOD...WITH A BRIEF WINDOW OF
OPPORTUNITY FOR DEVELOPMENT NEAR THE TRIPLE POINT IN CENTRAL
MISSOURI. ALL SEVERE WEATHER SHOULD EXIT STAGE EAST BY MID EVENING
WITH COOL AND DRY AIR ADVECTION BEGINNING TO TAKE HOLD OVERNIGHT.

FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...THE UPPER LOW RESPONSIBLE FOR OUR
ACTIVE WEATHER WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY WILL FILL AND MOVE VERY
LITTLE ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS
WILL LEAVE THE REGION IN NORTHERLY FLOW AND PRONE TO AN OCCASIONAL
LOBE OR TWO OF VORTICITY TO ROTATE THROUGH THE AREA. ISOLATED TO LOW
END SCATTERED DAYTIME SHOWERS CAN BE EXPECTED FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...
UNDER A MAINLY CLOUDY SKY. CLOUDS WILL ACT TO PREVENT RADIATIONAL
COOLING FRIDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHTS...KEEPING LOWS ABOVE FREEZING FOR
THE MOST PART. UNFORTUNATELY...THESE SAME CLOUDS...WITH CONTINUED
COOLING ALOFT...WILL RESULT IN UNSEASONABLY COOL DAYS. HIGHS WILL BE
IN THE 50S FRIDAY WITH AT LEAST SOME MIXING EXPECTED...HOWEVER IT
WILL BE TOUGH TO WARM MUCH THROUGH THE 40S ON SATURDAY WITH A FEW
SNOWFLAKES MIXING IN WITH THE ISO/SCT SHRA ACTIVITY GIVEN THE COLUMN
BEING ALMOST ENTIRELY BELOW FREEZING.

IF CLEARING OCCURS QUICKER THAN FORECAST LATE SATURDAY AND SATURDAY
NIGHT...THERE WILL BE AN ELEVATED RISK FOR A FROST AND POSSIBLY A
FREEZE SATURDAY NIGHT.

SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...IN GENERAL...THE GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE
TO AGREE WITH THE OVERALL UPPER LEVEL PATTERN EVOLUTION AND A DRY
STRETCH OF WEATHER. THERE REMAINS SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES DURING THE
FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK...MAINLY AFFECTING THE TIMING OF OUR WARMING
TREND. THE GFS IS A BIT MORE BULLISH IN WARMING VERSUS THE ECMWF...
AND AT THIS JUNCTURE THERE IS NO REASON TO SIDE WITH ONE MODEL OVER
ANOTHER. AS A RESULT..GENERALLY FOLLOWED THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN WHICH
IS A FAIR BLEND BETWEEN TO THE TWO OPERATIONAL SOLUTIONS.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW AVERAGE SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT.
THERE REMAINS A RISK FOR A FROST/FREEZE SUNDAY NIGHT AS A SFC HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE IS PARKED OVER THE AREA. AFTER THIS...TEMPS SHOULD
QUICKLY RETURN TO AT OR ABOVE AVERAGE BY FOR THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT
WEEK. THERE WILL LIKELY BE A FAST MOVING FRONT OR TWO TO RIDE THE
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...BUT MOISTURE LOOKS TO REMAIN MEAGER AND HAVE
MAINTAINED A DRY FORECAST.

GAGAN

GAGAN

&&

.AVIATION...

FOR THE 00Z TAFS...WILL CARRY VICINITY THUNDER WITH MVFR CEILINGS
GRADUALLY FALLING TO IFR BY LATE EVENING AS STRONG VERTICAL MOTION
ASSOCIATED WITH MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVES NORTHEAST FROM SOUTH
CENTRAL OKLAHOMA TO SOUTHEAST KANSAS. WILL GO WITH PREDOMINANT
THUNDERSTORMS FOR BOTH JOPLIN AND SPRINGFIELD DURING MUCH OF THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS AS LOW LEVEL JET INCREASE TO 40-50 KNOTS.

WILL BACK DOWN TO VICINITY THUNDER BY MID MORNING AS FIRST MID
LEVEL DISTURBANCE EXITS THE AREA...BUT SHOULD SEE STORMS REDEVELOP
DURING THE AFTERNOON AS MAIN TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE REGION.

HAVE INCREASED WINDS TO OVER 20 KNOTS SUSTAINED BY MID MORNING
THURSDAY...WITH GUSTS OVER 30 MPH ESPECIALLY LATE IN THE AFTERNOON
WHEN THE DRYLINE PUSHED ACROSS THE AIRPORTS.

TERRY

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE THURSDAY NIGHT FOR MOZ055>058-
     066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106.

KS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE THURSDAY NIGHT FOR KSZ073-097-101.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
800 PM CDT WED APR 9 2008

KSZ073-097-101-MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106-110100-
BOURBON-CRAWFORD-CHEROKEE-BENTON-MORGAN-MILLER-MARIES-VERNON-
ST. CLAIR-HICKORY-CAMDEN-PULASKI-PHELPS-BARTON-CEDAR-POLK-DALLAS-
LACLEDE-TEXAS-DENT-JASPER-DADE-GREENE-WEBSTER-WRIGHT-NEWTON-
LAWRENCE-CHRISTIAN-DOUGLAS-HOWELL-SHANNON-MCDONALD-BARRY-STONE-
TANEY-OZARK-OREGON-
800 PM CDT WED APR 9 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF THE MISSOURI
OZARKS AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

  WEATHER HAZARDS EXPECTED:

 HAIL TO THE SIZE OF QUARTERS AND LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING.

  AREAS AFFECTED AND TIMING:

 MAINLY ALONG AND WEST OF HIGHWAY 65.

 DISCUSSION:

 A THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX...DEVELOPING ALONG AND NORTH OF A WARM
 FRONT...WILL SPREAD NORTHWARD INTO EASTERN KANSAS AND WESTERN
 MISSOURI TONIGHT. THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HAIL TO THE
 SIZE OF QUARTERS CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THIS ACTIVITY...ALONG WITH
 LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS THAT EXPERIENCE
 SEVERAL ROUNDS OF THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT.

 AS A STRONG AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LIFTS INTO SOUTHEAST KANSAS
 TONIGHT...SURFACE WINDS OF 20 TO 30 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS WILL BE
 POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTHEAST KANSAS AND SOUTHWEST MISSOURI AFTER MIDNIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

 STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE ONGOING EARLY THURSDAY
 MORNING. BY LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON...A BRIEF BREAK IN
 THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED. THIS MAY ALLOW THE ATMOSPHERE
 ACROSS THE OUTLOOK AREA WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE AHEAD
 OF AN ADVANCING DRYLINE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS.
 WITH STRONG VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IN PLACE...ALL MODES OF SEVERE
 WEATHER ARE EXPECTED ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE DRYLINE...INCLUDING
 DAMAGING WIND GUSTS OVER 60 MPH...HAIL LARGER THAN QUARTER SIZE...AND
 TORNADOES.

 LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL ALSO ACCOMPANY THE THUNDERSTORMS ON
 THURSDAY AND WILL ADD TO THE FLOOD THREAT THROUGHOUT THE AREA. A
 FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM TONIGHT THROUGH
 THURSDAY EVENING.

 UNSEASONABLY COOL TEMPERATURES WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA THIS
 WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL FLIRT WITH THE FREEZING MARK BOTH
 SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY NIGHT. THE PRESENCE OF NORTHERLY WINDS
 AND CLOUD COVER WILL LIKELY PREVENT FROST DEVELOPMENT SATURDAY
 NIGHT. SUNDAY NIGHT WILL PROVIDE THE BEST CHANCE FOR FROST
 DEVELOPMENT...AND POSSIBLY A FREEZE...AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
 OVERHEAD AND WINDS BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE UNDER A CLEAR SKY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

 SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY
 MORNING WEST OF HIGHWAY 65.

&&

THIS PRODUCT IS NOW AVAILABLE IN GRAPHICAL FORMAT...ALONG WITH
OTHER WEATHER...HYDROLOGICAL AND CLIMATE INFORMATION...AT
HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/SGF(ALL LOWERCASE)

TERRY