River Flood Warning 56, NWS Springfield, MO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
223 AM CDT THU APR 10 2008

.DISCUSSION...

MAIN FOCUS THIS PERIOD WILL CONTINUE TO BE WITH STRONG LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM AS IT LIFTS INTO THE REGION TODAY AND THE
RESULTANT HEAVY RAIN/FLASH FLOODING/SEVERE WEATHER THREATS.

MAIN SURFACE LOW WAS BEGINNING TO SHIFT NORTHEAST INTO NORTHEAST
TEXAS THIS MORNING. WARM FRONT EXTENDED EAST ACROSS CENTRAL
ARKANSAS. MID TO UPPER 60S DEW POINTS WERE LOCATED SOUTH OF THE
FRONT WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S...WHILE
TEMPERATURES/DEWPOINTS WERE IN THE LOW TO MID 50S NORTH OF THE
FRONT OVER SOUTHERN MISSOURI AS OF 06Z. LOW LEVEL JET CRANKING UP
WITH PROFILERS/VWP SHOWING 40 TO 50 KTS AT 850MB. THIS WAS
ALLOWING TREMENDOUS AMOUNTS OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO ADVECT
NORTHWARD INTO THE AREA WITH MODERATE TO HEAVY PRECIPITATION
CONTINUING ACROSS THE CWA NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT TONIGHT. WE
CURRENTLY HAVE FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS COVERING THE ENTIRE AREA AS
GROUND REMAINS TOTALLY SATURATED FROM RECENT RECORD RAINFALL THE
PAST COUPLE OF MONTHS. HEAVY PRECIPITATION EXTENDS WELL BACK INTO
CENTRAL TEXAS AND THE HEAVY RAIN WILL LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING.

AS LOW LIFTS NORTHEAST THE REST OF THE OVERNIGHT AND INTO EASTERN
KANSAS EARLY THURSDAY MORNING IT WILL OCCLUDE WITH WARM FRONT
LIFTING NORTH INTO SOUTHERN MISSOURI. COULD SEE SOME THUNDERSTORMS
BECOME SEVERE ALONG THE WARM FRONT AS IT LIFTS NORTH INTO THE
AREA. GIVEN THE AMOUNTS OF LOW LEVEL SHEAR...SOME ISOLATED
TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS MORNING ACROSS SOUTHERN MISSOURI.

DRIER AIR SHOULD BEGIN TO PUSH INTO WESTERN MISSOURI LATE THIS
MORNING AND WILL LIKELY SEE HEAVIEST RAIN SHIFTING EAST
ACROSS THE CWA FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. AHEAD OF
THE DRY SURGE OVER THE EASTERN MISSOURI OZARKS...THE CHANCE FOR
TORNADOES WILL INCREASE SHOULD DISCRETE SUPERCELLS DEVELOP. THIS
WILL LIKELY DEPEND ON HOW MUCH CLEARING FROM MORNING HEAVY RAIN
CAN TAKE PLACE WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR.

LINE OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ALONG AND AHEAD OF COLD FRONT WILL
ALSO HAVE THE POSSIBILITY OF EMBEDDED TORNADOES GIVEN THE LOW
LEVEL SHEAR PROFILES...HOWEVER MAIN THREAT WILL BE WITH DAMAGING
STRAIGHT LINE WINDS...LARGE HAIL AND CONTINUED FLOODING.

STRONG SYNOPTIC SCALE WINDS ARE EXPECTED OVER WESTERN MISSOURI AND
SOUTHEAST KANSAS TODAY EAST OF THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER. IF SOME
CLEARING CAN TAKE PLACE WITH THE DRY SLOT MOVING IN...COULD SEE
SOME WIND GUSTS APPROACH WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA.

CYCLONIC FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVER THE AREA FROM FRIDAY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND WITH MUCH COOLER AIR MOVING INTO THE AREA. SEVERAL
SHORTWAVES WILL PUSH THROUGH THE AREA AND WILL BRING SCATTERED
AREAS OF PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA...ESPECIALLY OVER CENTRAL AND
EASTERN MISSOURI. FORECAST THERMAL PROFILES ARE INDICATING THAT
THERE COULD BE SNOW SHOWERS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY
MORNING...HOWEVER NOT EXPECTING ANY ACCUMULATIONS.

COULD SEE FROST/FREEZE BY SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING AS
SURFACE RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD INTO THE AREA AND WINDS DIMINISH
WITH CLEARING SKY.

WARMING TREND SHOULD BEGIN BY TUESDAY AS RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS TO THE
EAST AND UPPER RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD INTO THE AREA.

LINDENBERG

&&

.AVIATION...

FOR THE 06Z TAFS...WILL CARRY EASTERLY WINDS AND PREDOMINANT
STORMS THROUGH THE REST OF THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD AS A LARGE COMPLEX
CONTINUES TO DEVELOP ALONG AND NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT EXTENDING
ACROSS CENTRAL/NORTHERN ARKANSAS. BY EARLY/MID MORNING...WE WILL
TRANSITION TO VICINITY THUNDER WITH DECREASE IN STORM ACTIVITY
WHEN LOW LEVEL JET WEAKENS. WILL VEER WINDS TO SOUTHEAST AROUND
THIS TIME ALSO AS WARM FRONT MIGRATES NORTH ACROSS THE OZARKS.

TRICKY PORTION OF THE FORECAST WILL BE DURING THE AFTERNOON AS
SCATTERED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS DEVELOP ALONG AND AHEAD OF AN
ADVANCING DRYLINE. FOR NOW WILL GO WITH VICINITY STORMS THROUGH
LATE AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE DRYLINE...AND DROP MENTION OF PRECIP
BEHIND THE DRYLINE AROUND 23Z.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR MOZ055>058-066>071-
     077>083-088>098-101>106.

KS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR KSZ073-097-101.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
800 PM CDT WED APR 9 2008

KSZ073-097-101-MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106-110100-
BOURBON-CRAWFORD-CHEROKEE-BENTON-MORGAN-MILLER-MARIES-VERNON-
ST. CLAIR-HICKORY-CAMDEN-PULASKI-PHELPS-BARTON-CEDAR-POLK-DALLAS-
LACLEDE-TEXAS-DENT-JASPER-DADE-GREENE-WEBSTER-WRIGHT-NEWTON-
LAWRENCE-CHRISTIAN-DOUGLAS-HOWELL-SHANNON-MCDONALD-BARRY-STONE-
TANEY-OZARK-OREGON-
800 PM CDT WED APR 9 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF THE MISSOURI
OZARKS AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

  WEATHER HAZARDS EXPECTED:

 HAIL TO THE SIZE OF QUARTERS AND LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING.

  AREAS AFFECTED AND TIMING:

 MAINLY ALONG AND WEST OF HIGHWAY 65.

 DISCUSSION:

 A THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX...DEVELOPING ALONG AND NORTH OF A WARM
 FRONT...WILL SPREAD NORTHWARD INTO EASTERN KANSAS AND WESTERN
 MISSOURI TONIGHT. THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HAIL TO THE
 SIZE OF QUARTERS CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THIS ACTIVITY...ALONG WITH
 LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS THAT EXPERIENCE
 SEVERAL ROUNDS OF THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT.

 AS A STRONG AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LIFTS INTO SOUTHEAST KANSAS
 TONIGHT...SURFACE WINDS OF 20 TO 30 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS WILL BE
 POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTHEAST KANSAS AND SOUTHWEST MISSOURI AFTER MIDNIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

 STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE ONGOING EARLY THURSDAY
 MORNING. BY LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON...A BRIEF BREAK IN
 THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED. THIS MAY ALLOW THE ATMOSPHERE
 ACROSS THE OUTLOOK AREA WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE AHEAD
 OF AN ADVANCING DRYLINE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS.
 WITH STRONG VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IN PLACE...ALL MODES OF SEVERE
 WEATHER ARE EXPECTED ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE DRYLINE...INCLUDING
 DAMAGING WIND GUSTS OVER 60 MPH...HAIL LARGER THAN QUARTER SIZE...AND
 TORNADOES.

 LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL ALSO ACCOMPANY THE THUNDERSTORMS ON
 THURSDAY AND WILL ADD TO THE FLOOD THREAT THROUGHOUT THE AREA. A
 FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM TONIGHT THROUGH
 THURSDAY EVENING.

 UNSEASONABLY COOL TEMPERATURES WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA THIS
 WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL FLIRT WITH THE FREEZING MARK BOTH
 SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY NIGHT. THE PRESENCE OF NORTHERLY WINDS
 AND CLOUD COVER WILL LIKELY PREVENT FROST DEVELOPMENT SATURDAY
 NIGHT. SUNDAY NIGHT WILL PROVIDE THE BEST CHANCE FOR FROST
 DEVELOPMENT...AND POSSIBLY A FREEZE...AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
 OVERHEAD AND WINDS BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE UNDER A CLEAR SKY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

 SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY
 MORNING WEST OF HIGHWAY 65.

&&

THIS PRODUCT IS NOW AVAILABLE IN GRAPHICAL FORMAT...ALONG WITH
OTHER WEATHER...HYDROLOGICAL AND CLIMATE INFORMATION...AT
HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/SGF(ALL LOWERCASE)

TERRY

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1000 PM CDT WED APR 09 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0957 PM     HEAVY RAIN       1 NW JOPLIN             37.09N 94.53W
04/09/2008  M0.62 INCH       JASPER             MO   AMATEUR RADIO

            RAINFALL WENT FROM 0.66 INCHES TO 1.28 INCHES IN 15
            MINUTES.

&&

HATCH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1208 AM CDT THU APR 10 2008

..TIME..    ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION.. ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1203 AM     FLASH FLOOD      7 N LAMAR               37.60N  94.28W
04/10/2008                   BARTON             MO   CO-OP OBSERVER

            UP TO 5 INCHES OF WATER COVERING NE 5TH AND 10TH ALONG
            LANE RD. 1.98 INCHES OR RAINFALL MEASURED SO FAR.

&&

ANGLE