River Flood Warning 102, NWS Springfield, MO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...AVIATION UPDATE.
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
623 AM CDT FRI JUN 13 2008

.DISCUSSION...
A WEST TO EAST LINE OF CONVECTION DEVELOPED OVER SOUTHERN KANSAS AND
WESTERN MISSOURI OVERNIGHT.  INDIVIDUAL UPDRAFTS CONTINUE TO TRAIN
ALONG THE SAME LOCATIONS WITHIN THE LINE...WHICH HAS INCREASED
CONCERNS FOR SIGNIFICANT FLASH FLOODING.  THE IMMEDIATE CONCERN IS
FOR AREAS OF WESTERN CHEROKEE COUNTY THAT HUG LIGHTNING
CREEK...CHERRY CREEK...AND THE NEOSHO RIVER.

EXCESSIVE RAIN IN NEOSHO AND CRAWFORD COUNTIES WILL CAUSE FLOODING
WITHIN THESE STREAMS...WHICH FLOWS INTO THE CHEROKEE LOWLANDS.
ADDITIONAL FLOODING IS LIKELY WITHIN THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH AREA OF
WEST CENTRAL AND CENTRAL MISSOURI.
BOURBON...VERNON...ST.CLAIR...AND BARTON COUNTIES REALLY NEED TO
MONITOR FLASH FLOODING OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.  A RAINFALL
REPORT OF 6.50 INCHES JUST CAME IN FROM WILSON COUNTY KANSAS.

ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE DAY
AS THE FRONTAL SYSTEM GRADUALLY SHIFTS DEEPER INTO THE CWA.
AFTERNOON HEATING WILL LIKELY CONTRIBUTE TO INCREASED AREAL COVERAGE
IN THIS ACTIVITY.  THIS INSTABILITY ALONG WITH RADAR TRENDS FROM
ONGOING CONVECTION PROMPTED ME TO SWING TODAYS POP FORECAST CLOSER TO
THE WETTER WRF SOLUTION.  ALSO LOWERED TEMPERATURES SEVERAL DEGREES
DUE TO CLOUDS AND PRECIP HANGING ON THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY.

THE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH INTO ARKANSAS BY TONIGHT.  THIS WILL
ALLOW FOR A DRY AND PLEASANT WEEKEND.  AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE 80S
BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...WHILE OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL FALL INTO THE
LOW 60S.

HEADING INTO NEXT WEEK...THE FORECAST BECOME VERY DIFFICULT AS
THUNDERSTORM COMPLEXES WILL LIKELY DEVELOP ON A NIGHTLY BASIS.
ATTEMPTING TO PINPOINT WHERE THESE SYSTEMS WILL DEVELOP AND IMPACT
IS NEARLY IMPOSSIBLE AT THIS POINT.  HOWEVER...THE OZARKS WILL BE
POSITIONED ALONG THE PERIMETER OF THE SUMMERTIME RIDGE...WHICH IS A
FAVORABLE POSITION FOR EXPERIENCING A SERIES OF THUNDERSTORMS.  WILL
FOLLOW THE MEX POPS RATHER CLOSELY THROUGH THE EXTENDED FORECAST.

CRAMER

&&

.AVIATION...

CLUSTERS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT THE JOPLIN AND
SPRINGFIELD AIRPORTS THROUGH MOST OF THE MORNING HOURS.  PILOTS
FLYING IN AND OUT OF SOUTHWEST MISSOURI SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR RADAR
AS STORMS IMPACT THE REGION.  VISIBILITIES MAY FALL INTO THE MVFR
CATEGORY AS HEAVY RAIN UNFOLDS...WHILE CEILINGS RANGE FROM 1000 -
3000 NEAR STORMS.

A COLD FRONT WILL EVENTUALLY SHIFT SOUTH OF THE REGION.  SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO EXIT SOUTH.  UPON THE PASSAGE OF THIS
FRONT...THE WIND DIRECTION WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTH FOR THE REST OF
THE NIGHT.  DRY CONDITIONS WILL ALSO ACCOMPANY THIS CHANGE IN
AIRMASS.

CRAMER

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON FOR MOZ055>058-066>070-
     077>081-088-089.

KS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON FOR KSZ073-097-101.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
736 AM CDT FRI JUN 13 2008

KSZ073-097-101-MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106-141245-
BOURBON-CRAWFORD-CHEROKEE-BENTON-MORGAN-MILLER-MARIES-VERNON-
ST. CLAIR-HICKORY-CAMDEN-PULASKI-PHELPS-BARTON-CEDAR-POLK-DALLAS-
LACLEDE-TEXAS-DENT-JASPER-DADE-GREENE-WEBSTER-WRIGHT-NEWTON-
LAWRENCE-CHRISTIAN-DOUGLAS-HOWELL-SHANNON-MCDONALD-BARRY-STONE-
TANEY-OZARK-OREGON-
736 AM CDT FRI JUN 13 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF THE MISSOURI
OZARKS AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT EXTREME SOUTHEAST KANSAS
AND PARTS OF THE MISSOURI OZARKS TODAY. EXCESSIVE RAINFALL LEADING
TO SIGNIFICANT FLASH FLOODING IS EXPECTED.

ANYONE LIVING IN LOW LYING AREAS THAT TYPICALLY EXPERIENCE
FLOODING SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THOSE STREAMS...AND REACT QUICKLY
IF FLASH FLOODING BECOMES A POTENTIAL HAZARD.

THESE STORMS WILL LIKELY EXIT THE REGION SOMETIME DURING THE
EVENING HOURS AS A COLD FRONT SHIFTS SOUTH INTO ARKANSAS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE BEGINNING LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE LATEST FORECAST ANALYSIS
SUGGESTS THAT THE REGION WILL BE POSITIONED UNDER A WEATHER
PATTERN THAT IS FAVORABLE FOR OVERNIGHT THUNDERSTORM COMPLEXES.
THIS COULD LEAD TO ADDITIONAL FLOODING...ALONG WITH RESULTING IN
ADDITIONAL SEVERE WEATHER.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

  SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED THROUGH TONIGHT.

&&

THIS PRODUCT IS NOW AVAILABLE IN GRAPHICAL FORMAT...ALONG WITH
OTHER WEATHER...HYDROLOGICAL AND CLIMATE INFORMATION...AT
HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/SGF(ALL LOWERCASE)

LINDENBERG

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
416 AM CDT FRI JUN 13 2008

..TIME..    ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION.. ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0414 AM     HEAVY RAIN       GRAVOIS MILLS           38.31N  92.83W
06/13/2008  M1.40 INCH       MORGAN             MO   PUBLIC

            MEASURED 1.40 INCHES IN ONE HALF HOUR

&&

JLT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
718 AM CDT FRI JUN 13 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0716 AM     HEAVY RAIN       COLLINS                 37.89N 93.62W
06/13/2008  M2.50 INCH       ST. CLAIR          MO   BROADCAST MEDIA

0716 AM     HEAVY RAIN       SUNRISE BEACH           38.18N 92.78W
06/13/2008  M2.50 INCH       CAMDEN             MO   BROADCAST MEDIA

0717 AM     HEAVY RAIN       1 W EL DORADO SPRINGS   37.88N 94.04W
06/13/2008  M2.40 INCH       CEDAR              MO   BROADCAST MEDIA

0717 AM     HEAVY RAIN       HUMANSVILLE             37.79N 93.58W
06/13/2008  E2.25 INCH       POLK               MO   BROADCAST MEDIA

&&

HATCH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
719 AM CDT FRI JUN 13 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0719 AM     HEAVY RAIN       GIRARD                  37.51N 94.84W
06/13/2008  M1.96 INCH       CRAWFORD           KS   CO-OP OBSERVER

0719 AM     HEAVY RAIN       CAPLINGER MILLS         37.79N 93.80W
06/13/2008  M2.00 INCH       CEDAR              MO   CO-OP OBSERVER

&&

HATCH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
738 AM CDT FRI JUN 13 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0737 AM     HEAVY RAIN       ARCADIA                 37.64N 94.62W
06/13/2008  M3.00 INCH       CRAWFORD           KS   PUBLIC

&&

HATCH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
745 AM CDT FRI JUN 13 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0744 AM     FLASH FLOOD      FORT SCOTT              37.84N 94.71W
06/13/2008                   BOURBON            KS   EMERGENCY MNGR

            NUMEROUS LOW WATER ROADS AND BRIDGES ACROSS THE COUNTY
            UNDERWATER AND IMPASSABLE.

&&

HATCH