Flash Flood Warning 96, NWS Springfield, MO

000 
WGUS73 KSGF 131107
FFSSGF

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
604 AM CDT FRI JUN 13 2008

KSC021-MOC015-029-039-057-059-085-097-131-167-131600-
/O.CON.KSGF.FF.W.0096.000000T0000Z-080613T1600Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
CHEROKEE KS-JASPER MO-DADE MO-POLK MO-CEDAR MO-DALLAS MO-HICKORY MO-
CAMDEN MO-MILLER MO-BENTON MO-
604 AM CDT FRI JUN 13 2008

...A FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1100 AM CDT FOR
BENTON...CAMDEN...CEDAR...CHEROKEE...DADE...DALLAS...HICKORY...
JASPER...MILLER AND POLK COUNTIES...

AT 557 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED 
THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ACROSS THE WARNED AREA. 
SINCE 4 AM...ESTIMATED RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF ONE HALF...TO LOCALLY TWO 
INCHES HAVE FALLEN ACROSS THE WARNED AREA. THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL HAS 
OCCURRED IN CHEROKEE COUNTY KANSAS WHERE LOCALLY TWO TO THREE INCHES 
HAS FALLEN. ALTHOUGH NOT ALL AREAS HAVE RECEIVED HEAVY RAINFALL THIS 
MORNING...BANDS OF THUNDERSTORMS...PRODUCING RAINFALL RATES OF ONE 
TO TWO INCHES PER HOUR...WILL MOVE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE WARNED 
AREA THIS MORNING. TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS THROUGH 11 AM WILL RANGE 
FROM ONE TO THREE INCHES...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS.  

DO NOT UNDERESTIMATE THE POWER OF FLOOD WATERS. ONLY A FEW INCHES OF 
RAPIDLY FLOWING WATER CAN QUICKLY CARRY AWAY YOUR VEHICLE. TURN 
AROUND...DONT DROWN.

LAT...LON 3734 9507 3735 9409 3785 9404 3783 9358
      3851 9351 3854 9308 3818 9301 3822 9270
      3843 9263 3833 9220 3802 9219 3802 9240
      3783 9245 3789 9286 3749 9286 3742 9363
      3731 9364 3729 9405 3705 9407 3700 9507
TIME...MOT...LOC 1104Z 180DEG 0KT 3780 9336

$$

JLT

000 
WGUS73 KSGF 131557
FFSSGF

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1054 AM CDT FRI JUN 13 2008

KSC021-MOC015-029-039-057-059-085-097-131-167-131604-
/O.EXP.KSGF.FF.W.0096.000000T0000Z-080613T1600Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
CHEROKEE KS-JASPER MO-DADE MO-POLK MO-CEDAR MO-DALLAS MO-HICKORY MO-
CAMDEN MO-MILLER MO-BENTON MO-
1054 AM CDT FRI JUN 13 2008

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING WILL EXPIRE AT 1100 AM CDT FOR BENTON...
CAMDEN...CEDAR...CHEROKEE...DADE...DALLAS...HICKORY...JASPER...MILLER
AND POLK COUNTIES...

THE EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FROM EARLIER THIS MORNING HAS DECREASED 
SIGNIFICANTLY. HOWEVER...OCCASIONAL LIGHT TO MODERATE RAINFALL WILL 
CONTINUE THROUGH AFTERNOON WHICH WILL CAUSE MINOR FLOODING. IF 
FLOODING HAS BEEN OBSERVED...PLEASE REPORT IT TO YOUR LOCAL LAW 
ENFORCEMENT AGENCY. DUE TO RESIDUAL RUNOFF 

LAT...LON 3734 9507 3735 9409 3785 9404 3783 9358
      3851 9351 3854 9308 3818 9301 3822 9270
      3843 9263 3833 9220 3802 9219 3802 9240
      3783 9245 3789 9286 3749 9286 3742 9363
      3731 9364 3729 9405 3705 9407 3700 9507
TIME...MOT...LOC 1554Z 180DEG 0KT 3780 9336

$$

JLT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
250 AM CDT FRI JUN 13 2008

.DISCUSSION...
A WEST TO EAST LINE OF CONVECTION DEVELOPED OVER SOUTHERN KANSAS AND
WESTERN MISSOURI OVERNIGHT.  INDIVIDUAL UPDRAFTS CONTINUE TO TRAIN
ALONG THE SAME LOCATIONS WITHIN THE LINE...WHICH HAS INCREASED
CONCERNS FOR SIGNIFICANT FLASH FLOODING.  THE IMMEDIATE CONCERN IS
FOR AREAS OF WESTERN CHEROKEE COUNTY THAT HUG LIGHTNING
CREEK...CHERRY CREEK...AND THE NEOSHO RIVER.

EXCESSIVE RAIN IN NEOSHO AND CRAWFORD COUNTIES WILL CAUSE FLOODING
WITHIN THESE STREAMS...WHICH FLOWS INTO THE CHEROKEE LOWLANDS.
ADDITIONAL FLOODING IS LIKELY WITHIN THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH AREA OF
WEST CENTRAL AND CENTRAL MISSOURI.
BOURBON...VERNON...ST.CLAIR...AND BARTON COUNTIES REALLY NEED TO
MONITOR FLASH FLOODING OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.  A RAINFALL
REPORT OF 6.50 INCHES JUST CAME IN FROM WILSON COUNTY KANSAS.

ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE DAY
AS THE FRONTAL SYSTEM GRADUALLY SHIFTS DEEPER INTO THE CWA.
AFTERNOON HEATING WILL LIKELY CONTRIBUTE TO INCREASED AREAL COVERAGE
IN THIS ACTIVITY.  THIS INSTABILITY ALONG WITH RADAR TRENDS FROM
ONGOING CONVECTION PROMPTED ME TO SWING TODAYS POP FORECAST CLOSER TO
THE WETTER WRF SOLUTION.  ALSO LOWERED TEMPERATURES SEVERAL DEGREES
DUE TO CLOUDS AND PRECIP HANGING ON THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY.

THE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH INTO ARKANSAS BY TONIGHT.  THIS WILL
ALLOW FOR A DRY AND PLEASANT WEEKEND.  AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE 80S
BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...WHILE OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL FALL INTO THE
LOW 60S.

HEADING INTO NEXT WEEK...THE FORECAST BECOME VERY DIFFICULT AS
THUNDERSTORM COMPLEXES WILL LIKELY DEVELOP ON A NIGHTLY BASIS.
ATTEMPTING TO PINPOINT WHERE THESE SYSTEMS WILL DEVELOP AND IMPACT
IS NEARLY IMPOSSIBLE AT THIS POINT.  HOWEVER...THE OZARKS WILL BE
POSITIONED ALONG THE PERIMETER OF THE SUMMERTIME RIDGE...WHICH IS A
FAVORABLE POSITION FOR EXPERIENCING A SERIES OF THUNDERSTORMS.  WILL
FOLLOW THE MEX POPS RATHER CLOSELY THROUGH THE EXTENDED FORECAST.

CRAMER

&&

.AVIATION...

FOR THE 0600 UTC KSGF/KJLN TAFS...EXPECT STORMS TO GRADUALLY MOVE
INTO THE TAF SITES OVERNIGHT. WILL GENERALLY SEE MVFR CEILINGS
WITH MVFR TO IFR VISIBILITY AT TIMES WITH HEAVIER SHOWERS. DIFFUSE
FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL OCCUR SOMETIME ON FRI...BUT CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY PLAY HAVOC WITH TRYING TO TIME THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE TIME. IN GENERAL...CEILINGS SHOULD LOWER FOR A PERIOD OF
TIME IN THE WAKE OF THE EXITING CONVECTION...AND HAVE SOMEWHAT
LOWER CEILINGS IN THE TAFS IN THE AFTERNOON TO REFLECT THIS. SOME
FOG MAY BE POSSIBLE FRI NIGHT WITH A MOIST GROUND AND DECOUPLED BOUNDARY
LAYER...BUT HEAVIER FOG WILL LIKELY BE AFTER THE VALID TIME OF
THIS TAF SET. DSA

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON FOR MOZ055>058-066>070-
     077>081-088-089.

KS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON FOR KSZ073-097-101.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1101 PM CDT THU JUN 12 2008

KSZ073-097-101-MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106-140415-
BOURBON-CRAWFORD-CHEROKEE-BENTON-MORGAN-MILLER-MARIES-VERNON-
ST. CLAIR-HICKORY-CAMDEN-PULASKI-PHELPS-BARTON-CEDAR-POLK-DALLAS-
LACLEDE-TEXAS-DENT-JASPER-DADE-GREENE-WEBSTER-WRIGHT-NEWTON-
LAWRENCE-CHRISTIAN-DOUGLAS-HOWELL-SHANNON-MCDONALD-BARRY-STONE-
TANEY-OZARK-OREGON-
1101 PM CDT THU JUN 12 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF THE MISSOURI
OZARKS AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

  WEATHER HAZARDS EXPECTED:

  SCATTERED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. THE MOST LIKELY
  HAZARDS FROM THESE STORMS WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS...HAIL UP TO
  THE SIZE OF GOLF BALLS...AND HEAVY RAIN AND FLOODING. A BRIEF
  ISOLATED TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT...BUT THE OVERALL THREAT
  FOR TORNADOES IS LOW.

  AREAS AFFECT AND TIMING:

  MIDNIGHT TO 3 AM...NORTHWEST OF A LINE FROM NEOSHO TO BOLIVAR TO
  ELDON.

  FROM 3 AM TO 6 AM...NORTHWEST OF A LINE FROM CASSVILLE TO
  MARSHFIELD TO ROLLA.

  THE OVERALL BEST CHANCE FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE CONFINED TO
  NORTHWEST SECTIONS OF THE OUTLOOK AREA. A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
  WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR COUNTIES ROUGHLY ALONG AND NORTHWEST OF A
  LINE FROM NEOSHO TO BOLIVAR TO ELDON.

  DISCUSSION:

  A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST ALONG A COLD
  FRONT THAT EXTENDS FROM NORTHERN MISSOURI INTO SOUTH CENTRAL
  KANSAS. INCREASING LOW LEVEL FLOW INTO THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
  CAUSE THE THUNDERSTORMS TO INCREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE LATE THIS
  EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AS THEY MOVE INTO WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE
  OUTLOOK AREA. MODERATE INSTABILITY AND VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WILL
  CONTINUE TO SUPPORT STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS INTO EXTREME
  SOUTHEAST KANSAS AND INTO PARTS OF WEST
  CENTRAL...SOUTHWEST...AND CENTRAL MISSOURI OVERNIGHT.

  VERY HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLASH FLOODING WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE
  MAINLY NORTH OF A JOPLIN TO LEBANON LINE TONIGHT WHERE A FLASH
  FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

  THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ALONG WITH
  HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLOODING WILL CONTINUE FRIDAY. THE RISK OF
  SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE DEPENDENT UPON HOW MUCH CLEARING AND
  RESULTING INSTABILITY DEVELOPS. IF SUFFICIENT CLEARING TAKES
  PLACE...SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE MAINLY ACROSS FAR
  SOUTHERN MISSOURI.

  ANOTHER CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP SUNDAY AFTERNOON
  INTO MONDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

  SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED OVER SOUTHEAST KANSAS
  AND PARTS OF SOUTHWEST AND CENTRAL MISSOURI OVERNIGHT.

&&

THIS PRODUCT IS NOW AVAILABLE IN GRAPHICAL FORMAT...ALONG WITH
OTHER WEATHER...HYDROLOGICAL AND CLIMATE INFORMATION...AT
HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/SGF(ALL LOWERCASE)

DSA

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
416 AM CDT FRI JUN 13 2008

..TIME..    ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION.. ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0414 AM     HEAVY RAIN       GRAVOIS MILLS           38.31N  92.83W
06/13/2008  M1.40 INCH       MORGAN             MO   PUBLIC

            MEASURED 1.40 INCHES IN ONE HALF HOUR

&&

JLT