Severe Thunderstorm Warning 80, NWS Charleston, WV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
146 PM EDT WED JUN 4 2008

.SYNOPSIS...
MOST WIDESPREAD CONVECTION WILL TRY TO LIFT FURTHER NORTH TODAY.
BUT FLOOD AND SEVERE THREAT CONTINUES. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS
NORTH ON THURSDAY. SO SUMMER HEAT IS COMING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
ACTIVE WEATHER ON-GOING THROUGHOUT THE GRAVEYARD SHIFT...WITH
SMALL STREAM FLOODING AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WARNINGS PLUS
MORE TORNADO WATCHES VIA SPC.

ONE MORE DAY OF ACTIVE WEATHER...BEFORE SUMMER MAKES AN APPEARANCE.

NOT TOO KEEN ON MORNING CONVECTION HTS-CRW-BKW ON SOUTH. BUT SMALL
STREAM FLOOD THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE EXTREME NORTH.

MAIN SUPPORT TRIES TO LIFT A BIT FURTHER NORTH TODAY...SO HOPING
THE MOST WIDESPREAD CONVECTION SHIFTS INTO WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
WARM FRONT SITUATED ACROSS NORTHERN TIER OF AREA RIGHT AT THE START
OF THE PERIOD.  NEXT IN A SERIES OF SHORT WAVE TROUGHS MOVES IN FROM
THE W ALONG WITH STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL SW FEED ESPECIALLY GIVEN
MORNING HOURS WITH ENHANCED LLJ AT SUNRISE.  THIS SHOULD GIVE RISE
TO SOME KIND OF CONVECTIVE COMPLEX WITH HEAVY RAIN FALL MOVING
THROUGH E CNTRL OH COUNTIES IN THE MORNING AND ON TO THE ENE THROUGH
MIDDAY.  SECOND SHORT WAVE TAKES A SIMILAR TRACK IN THE AFTERNOON
LIKELY GENERATING ANOTHER ROUND OF CONVECTION NEAR THE FRONT.

FLOW OF 40-50 KTS PLUS CAPE UP TO 2500 J/KG ON DEW POINTS AROUND
70 AND H85 THETA E VALUES NEAR 340K...SPS SLIGHT RISK ACROSS
NORTHERN PORTION OF AREA LOOKS GOOD.  THE HEAVIEST QPF IN ALL THE
MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO BE IN AN W-E AXIS N OF THE FORECAST
AREA...BUT THE UPPER OH BASIN LOCATION OF THIS AXIS...AND THE
POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN SEVERAL TIMES TONIGHT THROUGH WED DOES
RAISE CONCERN FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL.  RIVER FORECAST CRESTS ARE
COMFORTABLY BELOW FLOOD STAGE AT THIS TIME...BUT THIS WILL NEED
CLOSELY MONITORED.

AFTER WED...WARM FRONT LIFTS N OF THE AREA...PUTTING THE AREA UNDER
UPPER RIDGE WITH SUMMER LIKE WEATHER FOR THE COUNT.

STAYED MOSTLY NEAREST HIGH SIDE OF GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS WED WITH
LOWEST VALUES N.  LOWS WED NT AND THU NT LOOKED GOOD.  RAISED HIGHS
THU TO REFLECT A BLEND OF THE NUMBERS AS THE MAV /MID 90S/ STILL
SEEMS A BIT HIGH.  STAYED A LITTLE BELOW THE HIGH MAV FRI AND
LOWERED THE VALLEYS FRI NT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND ASSOCIATED BERMUDA HIGH WILL SET UP OVER THE
LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST. THIS WILL TRANSLATE INTO A PERIOD
OF HOT AND HUMID WEATHER FOR THE CWA IN SOUTHWESTERLY SURFACE FLOW.
THIS WILL EFFECTIVELY DEFLECT INCOMING SYSTEMS FROM THE WEST OFF TO
THE NORTH...AND WILL EXPECT THE RING OF FIRE TO SET UP ALONG THE
PERIPHERY OF THE HIGH. MAIN QUESTION WILL BE WHETHER OR NOT THE
PERIPHERY WILL SINK FAR ENOUGH SOUTHEAST TO CLIP THE CWA TO ENHANCE
ANY THUNDERSTORM THREATS. OTHERWISE...WILL SEE A FAIR AMOUNT OF
CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT DURING THE HEATING OF THE DAY...AND WILL EXPECT
A FEW OF THESE TO BREAK THE CAP AND MATURE INTO THUNDERSTORMS.
SHOULD BE DIFFICULT TO UTILIZE ANY CAPE HOWEVER...AND WILL EXPECT
MOST PLACES TO REMAIN DRY DURING THE DURATION OF THIS SET UP.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S GENERALLY AREA
WIDE...WITH THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS A SMALL HANDFUL OF DEGREES OFF THE
PACE OF THE LOWLANDS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
CONVECTION ROLLING THROUGH THE CWA...MAINLY AFFECTING THE NORTHERN
SITES. CRW AND BKW HAVE BEEN SPARED SO FAR TODAY. ANOTHER WAVE OF
CONVECTION IS GETTING ORGANIZED BACK IN SOUTHWESTERN OHIO AND
NORTHERN KENTUCKY...AND IS PROPAGATING EASTWARD. CONVECTION WILL
BRING CEILINGS DOWN TO MVFR CRITERIA...AND JUST ABOVE THAT TO VFR
AROUND 4KFT WHEN NOT EXPERIENCING A TSRA. VISIBILITIES WILL ALSO
FLUCTUATE DOWN TO IFR BRIEFLY IN STORMS. WINDS WILL BE GUSTY IN
STORMS AND HAVE CARRIED TEMPOS WITH GUSTS TO 30KT.

EXPECTING CONVECTION TO DIE DOWN INTO THE OVERNIGHT...AND WINDS TO
SUBSIDE...AND WILL SEE LOCATIONS FOG IN WITH THE WELL SATURATED GROUND.

AVIATION OUTLOOK /AFTER 18Z THURSDAY/... IFR IN FOG POSSIBLE THURSDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
WILL CONTINUE THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH A FEW HOURS LONGER THAN
PRIOR...SINCE AFTERNOON CONVECTION SHOULD SWING THROUGH THE WET
GROUND COUNTIES ACROSS SOUTHEAST OHIO AND NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA.
ALSO ADDED A FEW COUNTIES TO THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH...AROUND EKN.

CURRENTLY NO RIVER FLOODING FORECAST...STRONG RISES ON HOCKING AND
MAYBE THE WEST FORK.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR WVZ007>011-
     016>020-027>032-037>040-046-047.
OH...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR OHZ066-067-
     075-076-083>086.
     FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR OHZ087.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...KTB/CL
NEAR TERM...KTB
SHORT TERM...CL
LONG TERM...26
AVIATION...26
HYDROLOGY...

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
1000 AM EDT WED JUN 4 2008

OHZ066-067-075-076-083>086-WVZ007>011-016>020-027>032-037>040-046-
047-051400-
PERRY-MORGAN-ATHENS-WASHINGTON-JACKSON OH-VINTON-MEIGS-GALLIA-MASON-
JACKSON WV-WOOD-PLEASANTS-TYLER-ROANE-WIRT-CALHOUN-RITCHIE-DODDRIDGE-
CLAY-BRAXTON-GILMER-LEWIS-HARRISON-TAYLOR-NICHOLAS-WEBSTER-UPSHUR-
BARBOUR-POCAHONTAS-RANDOLPH-
1000 AM EDT WED JUN 4 2008

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON...
...TORNADO WATCH 446 IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHEAST OHIO AND WEST
VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   TORNADO WATCH.
   FLASH FLOOD WATCH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED.

KYZ101>103-105-OHZ087-WVZ005-006-013>015-024>026-034>036-051400-
GREENUP-CARTER-BOYD-LAWRENCE KY-LAWRENCE OH-WAYNE-CABELL-LINCOLN-
PUTNAM-KANAWHA-MINGO-LOGAN-BOONE-WYOMING-RALEIGH-FAYETTE-
1000 AM EDT WED JUN 4 2008

...TORNADO WATCH 446 IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST
KENTUCKY...SOUTHEAST OHIO AND WEST VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   TORNADO WATCH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED.

VAZ003-004-WVZ033-051400-
DICKENSON-BUCHANAN-MCDOWELL-
1000 AM EDT WED JUN 4 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA AND WEST
VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
243 PM EDT WED JUN 04 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0220 PM     FLOOD            5 WSW PHILIPPI          39.12N 80.13W
06/04/2008                   BARBOUR            WV   EMERGENCY MNGR

            FLOODING ELK CREEK AREA. 2 FEET OF WATER OVER ROUTE 57
            ALONG ELK CREEK.

&&

JSIKORA

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
244 PM EDT WED JUN 4 2008

WVZ007-008-016-018-041930-
ROANE WV-MASON WV-CALHOUN WV-JACKSON WV-
244 PM EDT WED JUN 4 2008

HERE IS A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE...

AT 244 PM EDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS 8 MILES SOUTHWEST OF
EVANS...OR ABOUT 14 MILES SOUTH OF RACINE...MOVING EAST AT 50 MPH.

SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL BE AFFECTED BY THIS STORM INCLUDE... STATTS
  MILLS...GAY...FAIRPLAIN...GIVEN...LEROY AND COTTAGEVILLE.

SLOW MOVING THUNDERSTORMS ARE PRODUCING RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1.5
INCHES PER HOUR. THIS WILL CAUSE PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS AND
POSSIBLE LOCALIZED FLOODING IN LOW LYING AREAS. WIND GUSTS TO 45 MPH
ARE ALSO POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

PLEASE REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BY
CALLING TOLL FREE...877-633-6772...WHEN YOU CAN DO SO SAFELY.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WEST VIRGINIA
247 PM EDT WED JUN 4 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION...ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0228 PM     HAIL             GALLIPOLIS              38.80N 82.26W
06/04/2008  U0.50 INCH       GALLIA             OH   PUBLIC

            EVENT OCCURRED BETWEEN
            213 PM 06/04/2008 AND 228 PM 06/04/2008

&&

NNNN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
251 PM EDT WED JUN 04 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1130 AM     TSTM WND DMG     LEON                    38.75N 81.96W
06/04/2008                   MASON              WV   DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

            TREES DOWN ACROSS RT 64

&&

NW

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
253 PM EDT WED JUN 04 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0200 PM     TSTM WND DMG     7 SE POINT PLEASANT     38.78N 82.04W
06/04/2008                   MASON              WV   DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

            NUMEROUS TREES ACROSS ROADS NEAR SOUTHSIDE

&&

NW

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
254 PM EDT WED JUN 04 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0200 PM     TSTM WND DMG     10 N SNOWSHOE           38.55N 80.00W
06/04/2008                   RANDOLPH           WV   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            TREES AND POWERLINES DOWN NEAR VALLEY HEAD

&&

NW