Areal Flood Warning 13, NWS Charleston, WV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
646 AM EDT WED JUN 4 2008

.SYNOPSIS...
MOST WIDESPREAD CONVECTION WILL TRY TO LIFT FURTHER NORTH TODAY.
BUT FLOOD AND SEVERE THREAT CONTINUES. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS
NORTH ON THURSDAY. SO SUMMER HEAT IS COMING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
ACTIVE WEATHER ON-GOING THROUGHOUT THE GRAVEYARD SHIFT...WITH
SMALL STREAM FLOODING AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WARNINGS PLUS
MORE TORNADO WATCHES VIA SPC.

ONE MORE DAY OF ACTIVE WEATHER...BEFORE SUMMER MAKES AN APPEARANCE.

NOT TOO KEEN ON MORNING CONVECTION HTS-CRW-BKW ON SOUTH. BUT SMALL
STREAM FLOOD THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE EXTREME NORTH.

MAIN SUPPORT TRIES TO LIFT A BIT FURTHER NORTH TODAY...SO HOPING
THE MOST WIDESPREAD CONVECTION SHIFTS INTO WESTERN PENNSLVANIA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
WARM FRONT SITUATED ACROSS NORTHERN TIER OF AREA RIGHT AT THE START
OF THE PERIOD.  NEXT IN A SERIES OF SHORT WAVE TROUGHS MOVES IN FROM
THE W ALONG WITH STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL SW FEED ESPECIALLY GIVEN
MORNING HOURS WITH ENHANCED LLJ AT SUNRISE.  THIS SHOULD GIVE RISE
TO SOME KIND OF CONVECTIVE COMPLEX WITH HEAVY RAIN FALL MOVING
THROUGH E CNTRL OH COUNTIES IN THE MORNING AND ON TO THE ENE THROUGH
MIDDAY.  SECOND SHORT WAVE TAKES A SIMILAR TRACK IN THE AFTERNOON
LIKELY GENERATING ANOTHER ROUND OF CONVECTION NEAR THE FRONT.

FLOW OF 40-50 KTS PLUS CAPE UP TO 2500 J/KG ON DEW POINTS AROUND
70 AND H85 THETA E VALUES NEAR 340K...SPS SLIGHT RISK ACROSS
NORTHERN PORTION OF AREA LOOKS GOOD.  THE HEAVIEST QPF IN ALL THE
MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO BE IN AN W-E AXIS N OF THE FORECAST
AREA...BUT THE UPPER OH BASIN LOCATION OF THIS AXIS...AND THE
POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN SEVERAL TIMES TONIGHT THROUGH WED DOES
RAISE CONCERN FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL.  RIVER FORECAST CRESTS ARE
COMFORTABLY BELOW FLOOD STAGE AT THIS TIME...BUT THIS WILL NEED
CLOSELY MONITORED.

AFTER WED...WARM FRONT LIFTS N OF THE AREA...PUTTING THE AREA UNDER
UPPER RIDGE WITH SUMMER LIKE WEATHER FOR THE COUNT.

STAYED MOSTLY NEAREST HIGH SIDE OF GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS WED WITH
LOWEST VALUES N.  LOWS WED NT AND THU NT LOOKED GOOD.  RAISED HIGHS
THU TO REFLECT A BLEND OF THE NUMBERS AS THE MAV /MID 90S/ STILL
SEEMS A BIT HIGH.  STAYED A LITTLE BELOW THE HIGH MAV FRI AND
LOWERED THE VALLEYS FRI NT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND ASSOCIATED BERMUDA HIGH WILL SET UP OVER THE
LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST. THIS WILL TRANSLATE INTO A PERIOD
OF HOT AND HUMID WEATHER FOR THE CWA IN SOUTHWESTERLY SURFACE FLOW.
THIS WILL EFFECTIVELY DEFLECT INCOMING SYSTEMS FROM THE WEST OFF TO
THE NORTH...AND WILL EXPECT THE RING OF FIRE TO SET UP ALONG THE
PERIPHERY OF THE HIGH. MAIN QUESTION WILL BE WHETHER OR NOT THE
PERIPHERY WILL SINK FAR ENOUGH SOUTHEAST TO CLIP THE CWA TO ENHANCE
ANY THUNDERSTORM THREATS. OTHERWISE...WILL SEE A FAIR AMOUNT OF
CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT DURING THE HEATING OF THE DAY...AND WILL EXPECT
A FEW OF THESE TO BREAK THE CAP AND MATURE INTO THUNDERSTORMS.
SHOULD BE DIFFICULT TO UTILIZE ANY CAPE HOWEVER...AND WILL EXPECT
MOST PLACES TO REMAIN DRY DURING THE DURATION OF THIS SET UP.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S GENERALLY AREA
WIDE...WITH THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS A SMALL HANDFUL OF DEGREES OFF THE
PACE OF THE LOWLANDS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
CONVECTION CKB-EKN SHOULD EXIT ARND 12Z. HAVE CONVECTION REDEVELOPG
AFTER 15Z. MOST WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY MAY SHIFT N TOWARD WRN PA FOR
THE 18Z WED TO 00Z THU...BUT A QUICK BAND SHOULD STILL MOVE THRU
WV 16-21Z.

ALSO INCLUDED SOME POST PRECIP FOG AS UPPER RIDGE BUILDS IN WED NIGHT
AFTER 02Z THURSDAY AND WINDS DECREASE.

AVIATION OUTLOOK /AFTER 00Z THURSDAY/...
IFR IN VALLEY FOG POSSIBLE 04Z-12Z THURSDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
WILL CONTINUE THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH A FEW HOURS LONGER THAN
PRIOR...SINCE AFTERNOON CONVECTION SHOULD SWING THROUGH THE WET
GROUND COUNTIES ACROSS SOUTHEAST OHIO AND NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA.
ALSO ADDED A FEW COUNTIES TO THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH...AROUND EKN.

CURRENTLY NO RIVER FLOODING FORECAST...STRONG RISES ON HOCKING AND
MAYBE THE WEST FORK.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR WVZ007>011-
     016>020-027>032-037>040-046-047.
OH...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR OHZ066-067-
     075-076-083>086.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...KTB/CL
NEAR TERM...KTB
SHORT TERM...CL
LONG TERM...26
AVIATION...KTB
HYDROLOGY...KTB

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
1000 AM EDT WED JUN 4 2008

OHZ066-067-075-076-083>086-WVZ007>011-016>020-027>032-037>040-046-
047-051400-
PERRY-MORGAN-ATHENS-WASHINGTON-JACKSON OH-VINTON-MEIGS-GALLIA-MASON-
JACKSON WV-WOOD-PLEASANTS-TYLER-ROANE-WIRT-CALHOUN-RITCHIE-DODDRIDGE-
CLAY-BRAXTON-GILMER-LEWIS-HARRISON-TAYLOR-NICHOLAS-WEBSTER-UPSHUR-
BARBOUR-POCAHONTAS-RANDOLPH-
1000 AM EDT WED JUN 4 2008

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON...
...TORNADO WATCH 446 IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHEAST OHIO AND WEST
VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   TORNADO WATCH.
   FLASH FLOOD WATCH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED.

KYZ101>103-105-OHZ087-WVZ005-006-013>015-024>026-034>036-051400-
GREENUP-CARTER-BOYD-LAWRENCE KY-LAWRENCE OH-WAYNE-CABELL-LINCOLN-
PUTNAM-KANAWHA-MINGO-LOGAN-BOONE-WYOMING-RALEIGH-FAYETTE-
1000 AM EDT WED JUN 4 2008

...TORNADO WATCH 446 IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST
KENTUCKY...SOUTHEAST OHIO AND WEST VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   TORNADO WATCH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED.

VAZ003-004-WVZ033-051400-
DICKENSON-BUCHANAN-MCDOWELL-
1000 AM EDT WED JUN 4 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA AND WEST
VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
522 AM EDT WED JUN 04 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0300 AM     FLASH FLOOD      3 NW MEADLAND           39.35N 80.21W
06/04/2008                   TAYLOR             WV   EMERGENCY MNGR

            HIGH WATER PUSHED SEVERAL TRAILERS OFF FOUNDATIONS ALONG
            BOOTHS CREEK...NEAR SANTIAGO. WATER WAS NOW RECEEDING.

&&

JHOVIS

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
912 AM EDT WED JUN 4 2008

OHZ083-084-041345-
VINTON OH-JACKSON OH-
912 AM EDT WED JUN 4 2008

HERE IS A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE...

AT 912 AM EDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS 17 MILES WEST OF BYER...OR
ABOUT 6 MILES NORTHEAST OF WAVERLY...MOVING EAST AT 31 MPH.

SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL BE AFFECTED BY THIS STORM INCLUDE...
JACKSON...WELLSTON...ALLENSVILLE...ZALESKI...AND MCARTHUR.

WIND GUSTS TO 45 MPH AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS
STORM.

PLEASE REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BY
CALLING TOLL FREE...877-633-6772...WHEN YOU CAN DO SO SAFELY.

29

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
1013 AM EDT WED JUN 04 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0137 AM     FLASH FLOOD      MONTROSE                39.07N 79.81W
06/04/2008                   RANDOLPH           WV   TRAINED SPOTTER

            WATER OVER BOB ENGLAND RD AND RISING

&&

NW

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
1013 AM EDT WED JUN 4 2008

KYZ101>103-041445-
GREENUP KY-CARTER KY-BOYD KY-
1013 AM EDT WED JUN 4 2008

HERE IS A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE...

AT 1013 AM EDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS 6 MILES NORTH OF GLOBE...
OR ABOUT 6 MILES NORTHWEST OF OLIVE HILL...MOVING EAST AT 50 MPH.

SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL BE AFFECTED BY THIS STORM INCLUDE...
  GRAHN...HITCHINS...CARTER...HOPEWELL...SUMMIT AND LOCKWOOD.

WIND GUSTS TO 45 MPH AND PEA SIZE HAIL ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

PLEASE REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BY
CALLING TOLL FREE...877-633-6772...WHEN YOU CAN DO SO SAFELY.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
1016 AM EDT WED JUN 4 2008

OHZ084>086-WVZ007>009-041445-
VINTON OH-MEIGS OH-GALLIA OH-MASON WV-JACKSON WV-WOOD WV-
1016 AM EDT WED JUN 4 2008

HERE IS A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE...

AT 1016 AM EDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS OVER VINTON...OR ABOUT 10
MILES NORTH OF RIO GRANDE...MOVING EAST AT 45 MPH.

SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL BE AFFECTED BY THIS STORM INCLUDE...
  BELLEVILLE...SANDYVILLE...LAKIN...KYGER...SALEM CENTER AND
  REEDSVILLE.

WIND GUSTS TO 45 MPH AND SMALL HAIL ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

PLEASE REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BY
CALLING TOLL FREE...877-633-6772...WHEN YOU CAN DO SO SAFELY.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
1038 AM EDT WED JUN 04 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1126 PM     FLASH FLOOD      ZALESKI                 39.28N 82.40W
06/03/2008                   VINTON             OH   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            HIGH WATER OVER RT. 278 AT NORTH HOPE STATE PARK. HIGH
            WATER WAS ALSO OVER NUMEROUS OTHER RDS THROUGHOUT CITY.

&&

NW