Severe Thunderstorm Warning 58, NWS Charleston, WV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
858 PM EDT TUE JUN 3 2008

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE COMMON THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS A
FRONT REMAINS DRAPED OVER THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY. MONITORING FOR
FLOOD AND SEVERE THREAT.  UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS ON THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

WITH ACTIVE WEATHER ON-GOING...WILL KEEP THIS SHORT.

AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAS DEVELOPED FROM SOUTHERN
OHIO WESTWARD.  MODELS HAD A PRETTY REASONABLE HANDLE ON THESE
STORMS...WITH HIGH POPS ACROSS OUR NORTH OVERNIGHT.  HAVE PULLED THE
HIGHER POPS SOUTHWARD A LITTLE TO REFLECT CURRENT TRENDS.

EVERYTHING ELSE APPEARS TO BE REASONABLE...AND ONLY MINOR TWEAKS ARE
EXPECTED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
WARM FRONT SITUATED ACROSS NORTHERN TIER OF AREA RIGHT AT THE START
OF THE PERIOD.  NEXT IN A SERIES OF SHORT WAVE TROUGHS MOVES IN FROM
THE W ALONG WITH STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL SW FEED ESPECIALLY GIVEN
MORNING HOURS WITH ENHANCED LLJ AT SUNRISE.  THIS SHOULD GIVE RISE
TO SOME KIND OF CONVECTIVE COMPLEX WITH HEAVY RAIN FALL MOVING
THROUGH E CNTRL OH COUNTIES IN THE MORNING AND ON TO THE ENE THROUGH
MIDDAY.  SECOND SHORT WAVE TAKES A SIMILAR TRACK IN THE AFTERNOON
LIKELY GENERATING ANOTHER ROUND OF CONVECTION NEAR THE FRONT.

FLOW OF 40-50 KTS PLUS CAPE UP TO 2500 J/KG ON DEW POINTS AROUND
70 AND H85 THETA E VALUES NEAR 340K...SPS SLIGHT RISK ACROSS
NORTHERN PORTION OF AREA LOOKS GOOD.  THE HEAVIEST QPF IN ALL THE
MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO BE IN AN W-E AXIS N OF THE FORECAST
AREA...BUT THE UPPER OH BASIN LOCATION OF THIS AXIS...AND THE
POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN SEVERAL TIMES TONIGHT THROUGH WED DOES
RAISE CONCERN FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL.  RIVER FORECAST CRESTS ARE
COMFORTABLY BELOW FLOOD STAGE AT THIS TIME...BUT THIS WILL NEED
CLOSELY MONITORED.

AFTER WED...WARM FRONT LIFTS N OF THE AREA...PUTTING THE AREA UNDER
UPPER RIDGE WITH SUMMER LIKE WEATHER FOR THE COUNT.

STAYED MOSTLY NEAREST HIGH SIDE OF GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS WED WITH
LOWEST VALUES N.  LOWS WED NT AND THU NT LOOKED GOOD.  RAISED HIGHS
THU TO REFLECT A BLEND OF THE NUMBERS AS THE MAV /MID 90S/ STILL
SEEMS A BIT HIGH.  STAYED A LITTLE BELOW THE HIGH MAV FRI AND
LOWERED THE VALLEYS FRI NT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND ASSOCIATED BERMUDA HIGH WILL SET UP OVER THE
LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST. THIS WILL TRANSLATE INTO A PERIOD
OF HOT AND HUMID WEATHER FOR THE CWA IN SOUTHWESTERLY SURFACE FLOW.
THIS WILL EFFECTIVELY DEFLECT INCOMING SYSTEMS FROM THE WEST OFF TO
THE NORTH...AND WILL EXPECT THE RING OF FIRE TO SET UP ALONG THE
PERIPHERY OF THE HIGH. MAIN QUESTION WILL BE WHETHER OR NOT THE
PERIPHERY WILL SINK FAR ENOUGH SOUTHEAST TO CLIP THE CWA TO ENHANCE
ANY THUNDERSTORM THREATS. OTHERWISE...WILL SEE A FAIR AMOUNT OF
CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT DURING THE HEATING OF THE DAY...AND WILL EXPECT
A FEW OF THESE TO BREAK THE CAP AND MATURE INTO THUNDERSTORMS.
SHOULD BE DIFFICULT TO UTILIZE ANY CAPE HOWEVER...AND WILL EXPECT
MOST PLACES TO REMAIN DRY DURING THE DURATION OF THIS SET UP.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S GENERALLY AREA
WIDE...WITH THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS A SMALL HANDFUL OF DEGREES OFF THE
PACE OF THE LOWLANDS.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH OFF
TO THE EAST OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER...RADAR MOSAIC IS ALREADY SHOWING
ADDITIONAL STORMS ARE DEVELOPING ACROSS SOUTHWEST OHIO.

THESE STORMS ARE MOVING EAST AND SHOULD IMPACT PORTIONS OF
SOUTHEAST OHIO AND NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA OVERNIGHT.

EXPECT STORMS WILL BE MOST NUMEROUS ACROSS SOUTHEAST OHIO AND
NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA ONCE AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY.

MVFR CONDITIONS SHOULD BE COMMON IN AND NEAR THE STORMS...WITH VFR
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION. THERE COULD BE
SOME LOCAL AREAS OF IFR CIGS/VSBYS IN SOME OF THE STRONGER STORMS.

AVIATION OUTLOOK /AFTER 00Z THURSDAY/...
MVFR WITH OCCASIONAL IFR WX IN RW/TRW ACROSS SOUTHEAST OHIO AND
NORTHERN WV WED NIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SEVERAL UPPER AIR DISTURBANCES...850 INFLOW OF 50 KNOTS FROM SW
TONIGHT...AND PRECIPITABLE WATER NEAR 2 INCHES...COULD SPELL
TRAINING OF SOME DOWNPOURS ALONG WARM FRONT ACROSS NORTHERN PORTION
OF AREA TONIGHT AND WED. 3 HR FFG COULD BE REACHED IN SPOTS ACROSS
THE NORTH WITH EACH PASSING S/W. HOWEVER...EXPECTING ENOUGH
RECOVERY TIME BETWEEN S/W TO PREVENT PROBLEMS. AS A RESULT...WILL
NOT HOIST A FLASH FLOOD WATCH ATTM. HOWEVER...THE HAZARD STILL
EXISTS IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...FOR THE NORTHERN HALF OF
THE CWA TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...JKF/26/TRM/30
NEAR TERM...JSH
SHORT TERM...JKF/TRM
LONG TERM...26
AVIATION...JSH
HYDROLOGY...

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
419 PM EDT TUE JUN 3 2008

KYZ101>103-105-OHZ075-083>087-WVZ005>007-042030-
GREENUP-CARTER-BOYD-LAWRENCE KY-ATHENS-JACKSON OH-VINTON-MEIGS-
GALLIA-LAWRENCE OH-WAYNE-CABELL-MASON-
419 PM EDT TUE JUN 3 2008

...TORNADO WATCH 436 IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST
KENTUCKY...SOUTHEAST OHIO AND WEST VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   TORNADO WATCH.

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING.

LOCALIZED DOWNPOURS FROM SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE
THIS AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING. RAINS OF OVER 2 INCHES
WOULD BE NEED TO CAUSE FLASH FLOOD CONCERNS ON SMALL STREAMS AND
CREEKS. IF REPETITIVE SHOWERS SEEM LIKELY...FLASH FLOOD WATCHES
COULD BE POSTED.

INCREASE YOUR WEATHER AWARENESS THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ON WEDNESDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED.

OHZ066-067-076-VAZ003-004-WVZ008>011-013>020-024>040-046-047-042030-
PERRY-MORGAN-WASHINGTON-DICKENSON-BUCHANAN-JACKSON WV-WOOD-PLEASANTS-
TYLER-LINCOLN-PUTNAM-KANAWHA-ROANE-WIRT-CALHOUN-RITCHIE-DODDRIDGE-
MINGO-LOGAN-BOONE-CLAY-BRAXTON-GILMER-LEWIS-HARRISON-TAYLOR-MCDOWELL-
WYOMING-RALEIGH-FAYETTE-NICHOLAS-WEBSTER-UPSHUR-BARBOUR-POCAHONTAS-
RANDOLPH-
419 PM EDT TUE JUN 3 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHEAST OHIO...SOUTHWEST
VIRGINIA AND WEST VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT.

LOCALIZED DOWNPOURS FROM SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE
THIS AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING. RAINS OF OVER 2 INCHES
WOULD BE NEED TO CAUSE FLASH FLOOD CONCERNS ON SMALL STREAMS AND
CREEKS. IF REPETITIVE SHOWERS SEEM LIKELY...FLASH FLOOD WATCHES
COULD BE POSTED.

INCREASE YOUR WEATHER AWARENESS THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ON WEDNESDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED.

30

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
426 PM EDT TUE JUN 3 2008

WVZ025-026-034-035-032100-
LOGAN WV-WYOMING WV-RALEIGH WV-BOONE WV-
428 PM EDT TUE JUN 3 2008

HERE IS A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE...

AT 426 PM EDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS 33 MILES WEST OF
BECKLEY...IN EASTERN LOGAN COUNTY. THE STORM WAS MOVING SOUTHEAST AT
40 MPH.

SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL BE AFFECTED BY THIS STORM INCLUDE...
  MABEN...CYCLONE...KOPPERSTON...NAOMA...BOLT AND ARNETT.

WIND GUSTS TO 45 MPH AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS
STORM.

PLEASE REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BY
CALLING TOLL FREE...877-633-6772...WHEN YOU CAN DO SO SAFELY.

13

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
459 PM EDT TUE JUN 3 2008

KYZ101>103-105-OHZ087-WVZ005-006-032145-
GREENUP KY-CARTER KY-BOYD KY-LAWRENCE KY-LAWRENCE OH-CABELL WV-WAYNE
WV-
459 PM EDT TUE JUN 3 2008

HERE IS A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE...

AT 459 PM EDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS 10 MILES NORTH OF CARTER
CAVES STATE PARK...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 40 MPH.

SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL BE AFFECTED BY THIS STORM INCLUDE...
  GRAHN...GLOBE...HITCHINS...CARTER...GRAYS BRANCH AND HOPEWELL.

WIND GUSTS TO 45 MPH AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS
STORM. SLOW MOVING THUNDERSTORMS ARE PRODUCING RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1
TO 2 INCHES PER HOUR. THIS WILL CAUSE PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS
AND POSSIBLE LOCALIZED FLOODING IN LOW LYING AREAS.

PLEASE REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BY
CALLING TOLL FREE...877-633-6772...WHEN YOU CAN DO SO SAFELY.

13

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
543 PM EDT TUE JUN 03 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0500 PM     TSTM WND DMG     LOAD                    38.55N 82.97W
06/03/2008                   GREENUP            KY   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            BARN BLOWN APART AND ACROSS ROAD ON RT 20/70.

&&

JDENT

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
543 PM EDT TUE JUN 3 2008

WVZ005-006-013>015-032215-
KANAWHA WV-PUTNAM WV-CABELL WV-WAYNE WV-LINCOLN WV-
543 PM EDT TUE JUN 3 2008

HERE IS A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE...

AT 543 PM EDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS OVER NORTHEASTERN WAYNE
COUNTY...OR ABOUT 9 MILES SOUTH OF PROCTORVILLE...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT
40 MPH.

SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL BE AFFECTED BY THIS STORM INCLUDE... ONA...
  SALT ROCK...EAST LYNN...PALERMO...MYRA AND SOD.

WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS
STORM.

PLEASE REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BY
CALLING TOLL FREE...877-633-6772...WHEN YOU CAN DO SO SAFELY.

13

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
621 PM EDT TUE JUN 3 2008

VAZ004-WVZ015-024>027-033>037-032245-
BUCHANAN VA-KANAWHA WV-LOGAN WV-CLAY WV-NICHOLAS WV-MCDOWELL
WV-WYOMING WV-RALEIGH WV-MINGO WV-BOONE WV-FAYETTE WV-
621 PM EDT TUE JUN 3 2008

HERE IS A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE...

AT 616 PM EDT...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAINFALL
EXTENDED FROM CENTRAL MINGO COUNTY...TO SOUTHERN CLAY COUNTY. THESE
STORMS WERE MOVING TO THE SOUTHEAST AT AROUND 35 MPH.

SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL BE AFFECTED BY THIS LINE OF STORMS
INCLUDE...BECKLEY...BENTREE...BICKMORE...INDORE...ESKDALE...LEEWOOD
AND POND GAP.

SOME OF THE STRONGER EMBEDDED STORMS MAY CONTAIN WIND GUSTS TO 40
MPH. FREQUENT LIGHTNING IS ALSO POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS.

PLEASE REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BY
CALLING TOLL FREE...877-633-6772...WHEN YOU CAN DO SO SAFELY.

13