Severe Thunderstorm Warning 81, NWS Charleston, WV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
307 PM EDT WED JUN 4 2008

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT CONTINUES THE CONVECTION...AND FLOOD AND SEVERE THREAT
INTO TONIGHT.  IT LIFTS NORTH OF THE AREA BY FIRST THING THURSDAY
MORNING.  HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SURFACE AND ALOFT THURSDAY ON.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
CONVECTIVE WAVE TRAIN MACHINE KEEPS CHURNING COMPLEXES EAST THROUGH
THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES REMAIN HIGH...OVER
1.75 INCHES IN SOME CASES...AND STRONG DYNAMICS SETTING THE STAGE
FOR LINE ECHOES WITH POTENT WINDS AND THE OCCASIONAL ROTATION WITHIN
STORMS. OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS INTO THE OVERNIGHT...EXPECTING A
SLOW AND GRADUAL INFLUENCE OF A STRENGTHENING 500HPA RIDGE OFF TO
THE SOUTH. ALSO...AN UPSTREAM UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL ASSIST IN
ALTERING THE OVERALL PATTERN...AND PUTTING AN END TO THE CONVECTIVE
PATTERN. BEFORE IT ENDS...THE PATH WILL TAKE THE COMPLEXES TO THE
NORTH OUT OF THE CWA OVERNIGHT...AND ADVECTION OF HIGHER 500HPA
HEIGHTS WILL COMMENCE. THIS WILL MARK THE BEGINNING OF THE SUMMER
TIME BERMUDA HIGH DOMINATING THE WEATHER.

KEPT OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES BASED ON CURRENT VALUES DESPITE THE
FACT IT IS STILL EARLY AFTERNOON. NOT EXPECTING MUCH OF AN
INCREASE...SO SET UP MIN T VALUES ONLY A SMALL HANDFUL OF DEGREES
BELOW THE CURRENT TEMPERATURES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
WARM FRONT LIFTS N OF THE AREA FIRST THING THU MORNING...TAKING MOST
OF THE CONVECTION WITH IT.  A VERY WARM AND MOIST AIR MASS
ENCOMPASSES THE AREA IN THE WAKE OPF THE WARM FRONT...WITH DEW
POINTS NEAR 70 DRIVING CAPES UP TO 2 GRAND J/KG.  WITH SOUTHERN EDGE
OF WESTERLIES OVER NORTHERN EDGE OF FORECAST AREA...WITH UPPER LEVEL
DIV THERE AS WELL AS IN THE MOUNTAINS...OPTED TO MAINTAIN SLIGHT CHC
POPS UP N AND IN THE MOUNTAINS.  IF ACTIVITY THIS EVENING LAST DEEP
ENOUGH INTO TONIGHT...THEN LEFTOVER BOUNDARIES IN THE MORNING COULD
HELP PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR STORMS TO DEVELOP THU AFTERNOON.

ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT DO FORM THURSDAY AFTERNOON SHOULD DIE WITH
THE SUNSET OR SHORTLY THEREAFTER.  IN AN AIR MASS THIS
MOIST...THUNDERSTORMS REFORM ON THEIR OWN OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES AND
BECOME TONIGHT TO GET RID OF AFTER SUNSET.

NONETHELESS...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING SURFACE AND ALOFT SHOULD ALLOW
THE WEATHER TO SETTLE DOWN EVEN FURTHER FROM FRI FORWARD...AS WE
GET INTO THE SUMMER HEAT...AND JUST THE MINIMAL CHANCE FOR AN
AFTERNOON OR EVENING MOUNTAIN THUNDERSTORM.  USED ELEVATED HEAT
SOURCE TOOL TO DEPICT THESE POPS AS WELL AS THE CLOUDS.  ON
SATURDAY...A WEAK COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE W MAY TRIGGER
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS IN E OH AS WELL.

USED A BLEND OF THE NUMBERS FOR HIGHS THU AND FRI AS THE HIGH MAV
APPEARS A BIT TOO HIGH GIVEN ONGOING RAIN / WET GROUNDS.  CLOSE TO
THE WELL-CONVERGED NUMBERS FOR LOWS THU NT AND FRI NT.  STAYED JUST
BELOW THE MEX FOR HIGHS SAT AND CLOSE TO IT FOR LOWS SAT NT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HEAT WAVE REGIME IN FIRM CONTROL THIS PERIOD.  USED DIURNAL TOOL TO
DEPICT CUMULUS IN THE GRIDS AND RAN POPS OFF OF THAT TO DEPICT THE
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A MOUNTAIN THUNDERSTORM EACH AFTERNOON.  OTHERWISE
DECIDED NOT TO BITE ON HPC POPS FOR MON AS EVEN THE CANADIAN DOES
NOT SHOW ANY FEATURE NEARBY THEN.

DID NOT STRAY FAR FROM THE MEX AT ALL IN THIS BENIGN PATTERN AS THE
GROUND WILL EVENTUALLY HAVE THE CHANCE TO DRY OUT.  THERE SHOULD NOT
BE SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES FROM DAY TO DAY...WENT 2F LOWER DAY 7 PER
MEX/CLIMO.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
CONVECTION ROLLING THROUGH THE CWA...MAINLY AFFECTING THE NORTHERN
SITES. CRW AND BKW HAVE BEEN SPARED SO FAR TODAY. ANOTHER WAVE OF
CONVECTION IS GETTING ORGANIZED BACK IN SOUTHWESTERN OHIO AND
NORTHERN KENTUCKY...AND IS PROPAGATING EASTWARD. CONVECTION WILL
BRING CEILINGS DOWN TO MVFR CRITERIA...AND JUST ABOVE THAT TO VFR
AROUND 4KFT WHEN NOT EXPERIENCING A TSRA. VISIBILITIES WILL ALSO
FLUCTUATE DOWN TO IFR BRIEFLY IN STORMS. WINDS WILL BE GUSTY IN
STORMS AND HAVE CARRIED TEMPOS WITH GUSTS TO 30KT.

EXPECTING CONVECTION TO DIE DOWN INTO THE OVERNIGHT...AND WINDS TO
SUBSIDE...AND WILL SEE LOCATIONS FOG IN WITH THE WELL SATURATED
GROUND.

AVIATION OUTLOOK /AFTER 18Z THURSDAY/... IFR IN FOG POSSIBLE THURSDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT ANOTHER A FEW HOURS FOR THE
AFTERNOON CONVECTION SWINGING THROUGH THE WET GROUND COUNTIES ACROSS
SOUTHEAST OHIO AND NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA.

CURRENTLY NO RIVER FLOODING FORECAST...STRONG RISES ON HOCKING AND
MAYBE THE WEST FORK.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR WVZ007>011-
     016>020-027>032-037>040-046-047.
OH...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR OHZ066-067-
     075-076-083>086.
     FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR OHZ087.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...TRM
NEAR TERM...26
SHORT TERM...TRM
LONG TERM...TRM
AVIATION...26
HYDROLOGY...

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
1000 AM EDT WED JUN 4 2008

OHZ066-067-075-076-083>086-WVZ007>011-016>020-027>032-037>040-046-
047-051400-
PERRY-MORGAN-ATHENS-WASHINGTON-JACKSON OH-VINTON-MEIGS-GALLIA-MASON-
JACKSON WV-WOOD-PLEASANTS-TYLER-ROANE-WIRT-CALHOUN-RITCHIE-DODDRIDGE-
CLAY-BRAXTON-GILMER-LEWIS-HARRISON-TAYLOR-NICHOLAS-WEBSTER-UPSHUR-
BARBOUR-POCAHONTAS-RANDOLPH-
1000 AM EDT WED JUN 4 2008

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON...
...TORNADO WATCH 446 IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHEAST OHIO AND WEST
VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   TORNADO WATCH.
   FLASH FLOOD WATCH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED.

KYZ101>103-105-OHZ087-WVZ005-006-013>015-024>026-034>036-051400-
GREENUP-CARTER-BOYD-LAWRENCE KY-LAWRENCE OH-WAYNE-CABELL-LINCOLN-
PUTNAM-KANAWHA-MINGO-LOGAN-BOONE-WYOMING-RALEIGH-FAYETTE-
1000 AM EDT WED JUN 4 2008

...TORNADO WATCH 446 IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST
KENTUCKY...SOUTHEAST OHIO AND WEST VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   TORNADO WATCH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED.

VAZ003-004-WVZ033-051400-
DICKENSON-BUCHANAN-MCDOWELL-
1000 AM EDT WED JUN 4 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA AND WEST
VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
244 PM EDT WED JUN 4 2008

WVZ007-008-016-018-041930-
ROANE WV-MASON WV-CALHOUN WV-JACKSON WV-
244 PM EDT WED JUN 4 2008

HERE IS A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE...

AT 244 PM EDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS 8 MILES SOUTHWEST OF
EVANS...OR ABOUT 14 MILES SOUTH OF RACINE...MOVING EAST AT 50 MPH.

SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL BE AFFECTED BY THIS STORM INCLUDE... STATTS
  MILLS...GAY...FAIRPLAIN...GIVEN...LEROY AND COTTAGEVILLE.

SLOW MOVING THUNDERSTORMS ARE PRODUCING RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1.5
INCHES PER HOUR. THIS WILL CAUSE PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS AND
POSSIBLE LOCALIZED FLOODING IN LOW LYING AREAS. WIND GUSTS TO 45 MPH
ARE ALSO POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

PLEASE REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BY
CALLING TOLL FREE...877-633-6772...WHEN YOU CAN DO SO SAFELY.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WEST VIRGINIA
247 PM EDT WED JUN 4 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION...ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0228 PM     HAIL             GALLIPOLIS              38.80N 82.26W
06/04/2008  U0.50 INCH       GALLIA             OH   PUBLIC

            EVENT OCCURRED BETWEEN
            213 PM 06/04/2008 AND 228 PM 06/04/2008

&&

NNNN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
251 PM EDT WED JUN 04 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1130 AM     TSTM WND DMG     LEON                    38.75N 81.96W
06/04/2008                   MASON              WV   DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

            TREES DOWN ACROSS RT 64

&&

NW

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
253 PM EDT WED JUN 04 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0200 PM     TSTM WND DMG     7 SE POINT PLEASANT     38.78N 82.04W
06/04/2008                   MASON              WV   DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

            NUMEROUS TREES ACROSS ROADS NEAR SOUTHSIDE

&&

NW

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
254 PM EDT WED JUN 04 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0200 PM     TSTM WND DMG     10 N SNOWSHOE           38.55N 80.00W
06/04/2008                   RANDOLPH           WV   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            TREES AND POWERLINES DOWN NEAR VALLEY HEAD

&&

NW

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
307 PM EDT WED JUN 04 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0250 PM     HAIL             POINT PLEASANT          38.85N 82.13W
06/04/2008  E0.75 INCH       MASON              WV   PUBLIC

&&

NW