Severe Thunderstorm Warning 11, NWS Paducah, KY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
300 PM CST TUE JAN 29 2008

.DISCUSSION...

THREE SYSTEMS OVER THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS WITH MANY CHALLENGES...SO
WILL TRY NOT TO GET TOO VERBOSE.

INTENSE COLD FRONT JUST INSIDE THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF
OUR CWA AT THE TIME OF THIS WRITING. EXPECT A SQUALL LINE OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ALONG OR IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND
CROSS OUR CWA THROUGH THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EARLY
AFTERNOON HOURS. EXPECT THE FRONT AND THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER TO
EXIT THE SOUTHEAST CORNER OF OUR CWA BETWEEN 7 AND 8 PM.
TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS WILL DROP OFF SHARPLY BEHIND THE
FRONT...AND PRECIP WILL LIKELY CHANGE OVER TO SNOW BEFORE ENDING BY
MIDNIGHT WITH ONLY A DUSTING EXPECTED.

NOT MUCH TIME IN BETWEEN THIS SYSTEM AND THE NEXT. MODELS BRINGING
SYSTEM NUMBER TWO INTO THE REGION ON THURSDAY. AGAIN THE TRACK AND
TIMING OF THE SYSTEM WILL MAKE ALL OF THE DIFFERENCE WHEN IT COMES
TO SNOW POTENTIAL WITH THIS SYSTEM. GFS AND ECMWF KEEP THE SFC LOW A
BIT FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST THAN THE NAM. THIS SCENARIO WOULD
OBVIOUSLY YIELD A COLDER SOLUTION AND THUS A BETTER CHANCE FOR SNOW.
ASSUMING THE STORM TAKES THE MORE SOUTHERLY TRACK...PRECIP SHOULD
START OUT AS A MIX OVER THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN SECTIONS AND REMAIN
A MIX THROUGHOUT THE DAY THERE WITH ALL LIQUID ELSEWHERE. EASTWARD
PROGRESSION OF THE CHANGEOVER TO SNOW WILL BEGIN THURSDAY
EVENING...AND ALL SNOW ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA AFTER MIDNIGHT. BY 12Z
FRIDAY COULD SEE 2-4 INCHES OF SNOW ACROSS ALL OF OF OUR CWA EXCEPT
THE SOUTHEAST CORNER. EXPECT LIGHT SNOW TO FLURRIES ON THE BACK SIDE
OF THE SYSTEM ON FRIDAY...BUT LITTLE TO NO ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION
EXPECTED.

NEXT SYSTEM TO MOVE INTO THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT. CURRENT
INDICATIONS ARE THAT THIS EVENT WILL REMAIN ALL LIQUID. THE COLD
FRONT WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL CROSS THE REGION ON TUESDAY. EXPECT
LIGHT PRECIP TO LINGER BEHIND THE FRONT INTO TUESDAY EVENING.
1000-850 THICKNESS VALUES WOULD INDICATE A CHANGEOVER TO LIGHT SNOW
TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...BUT SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE
FORECAST TO BE TOO WARM. WILL LIKELY HAVE TO MAKE ADJUSTMENTS AS WE
DRAW NEARER TO THIS EVENT.

&&

.AVIATION...
CLEAR SLOT OVER CENTRAL MISSOURI IS ALLOWING FOR SUBSTANTIAL SURFACE
HEATING IN THAT AREA LATE THIS MORNING. 60 DEGREE DEW POINTS
EXTENDED UP TO CENTRAL ARKANSAS BY 16Z. THIS WILL FAVOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF LOW TOPPED CONVECTION ALONG THE VERY SHARP COLD FRONT
THIS AFTERNOON...LIKELY OVER SE MISSOURI. PER SPC MCD...THE FORECAST
AREA WILL BE UPGRADED TO MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE SHORTLY.

FORECAST WAS UPDATED FOR SOMEWHAT WARMER TEMPS AND HIGHER DEW
POINTS...MAINLY OVER SOUTHEAST MISSOURI AND SOUTHERN ILLINOIS. THIS
IS THE REGION WHERE SOME SUN IS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AS THE DRY
SLOT EDGES EASTWARD. TIMING OF THE ARRIVAL OF COLD AIR WAS PUSHED
BACK JUST A FEW HOURS...SO MENTION OF SNOW FOR THIS AFTERNOON WAS
TRIMMED BACK A COUPLE COUNTIES.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...WIND ADVISORY ALL COUNTIES TIL 06Z WEDNESDAY
MO...WIND ADVISORY ALL COUNTIES TIL 06Z WEDNESDAY
IL...WIND ADVISORY ALL COUNTIES TIL 06Z WEDNESDAY
IN...WIND ADVISORY ALL COUNTIES TIL 06Z WEDNESDAY

&&

PUBLIC...JP
AVIATION...MY

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
1045 AM CST TUE JAN 29 2008

ILZ075>078-080>094-INZ081-082-085>088-KYZ001>022-MOZ076-086-087-
100-107>112-114-301045-
JEFFERSON-WAYNE IL-EDWARDS-WABASH-PERRY IL-FRANKLIN-HAMILTON-
WHITE-JACKSON-WILLIAMSON-SALINE-GALLATIN-UNION IL-JOHNSON-POPE-
HARDIN-ALEXANDER-PULASKI-MASSAC-GIBSON-PIKE-POSEY-VANDERBURGH-
WARRICK-SPENCER-FULTON-HICKMAN-CARLISLE-BALLARD-MCCRACKEN-GRAVES-
LIVINGSTON-MARSHALL-CALLOWAY-CRITTENDEN-LYON-TRIGG-CALDWELL-
UNION KY-WEBSTER-HOPKINS-CHRISTIAN-HENDERSON-DAVIESS-MCLEAN-
MUHLENBERG-TODD-PERRY MO-BOLLINGER-CAPE GIRARDEAU-WAYNE MO-CARTER-
RIPLEY-BUTLER-STODDARD-SCOTT-MISSISSIPPI-NEW MADRID-
1045 AM CST TUE JAN 29 2008

...MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN
ILLINOIS...SOUTHWEST INDIANA...WESTERN KENTUCKY AND SOUTHEAST
MISSOURI.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM MID
AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS EVENING. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
LIKELY FROM THE CURRENT TIME UNTIL MID AFTERNOON. AROUND 200
PM...THE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO FORM A LINE JUST AHEAD OF THE
COLD FRONT. THIS LINE OF STORMS IS THEN EXPECTED TO RACE ACROSS
THE REGION AT CLOSE TO 70 MPH. THE FRONT AND STORMS WILL LEAVE THE
REGION BETWEEN 600 PM AND 700 PM THIS EVENING.

THE PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS DUE TO POWERFUL WINDS
ALOFT...HOWEVER AN ISOLATED TORNADO IS POSSIBLE.

STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS WILL PERSIST OUTSIDE OF THE THUNDERSTORMS FOR
MOST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT. WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE SOUTH UNTIL
SHIFTING TO THE NORTHWEST LATE THIS AFTERNOON OR EARLY THIS
EVENING BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. WINDS WILL AVERAGE 20 TO 30 MPH
WITH GUSTS OF 45 TO 50 MPH POSSIBLE AT TIMES. A WIND ADVISORY IS
IN EFFECT. REFER TO THE WIND ADVISORY FOR MORE DETAILS.

ONCE THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH...SHARPLY COLDER AIR WILL QUICKLY
DROP TEMPERATURES INTO THE UPPER 20S AND LOWER 30S BY 900 PM. WIND
CHILLS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE TEENS BY LATER THIS EVENING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

THERE IS A CHANCE OF LIGHT WINTRY ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW OR ICE
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY
THIS EVENING.

SPODEN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
357 PM CST TUE JAN 29 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0352 PM     HAIL             AVA                     37.89N 89.50W
01/29/2008  M0.25 INCH       JACKSON            IL   LAW ENFORCEMENT

&&

SMITTY

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
400 PM CST TUE JAN 29 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0357 PM     HAIL             CAPE GIRARDEAU          37.31N 89.55W
01/29/2008  M0.50 INCH       CAPE GIRARDEAU     MO   EMERGENCY MNGR

            HAIL REPORTED ALONG HIGHWAYS 72 AND 34. WINDS ESTIMATED
            GUST 50 MPH.

&&

SMITTY

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
401 PM CST TUE JAN 29 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0348 PM     TSTM WND DMG     OAK RIDGE               37.50N 89.73W
01/29/2008                   CAPE GIRARDEAU     MO   EMERGENCY MNGR

            SHINGLES BLOWN OFF OF HOME.

&&

SMITTY

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
402 PM CST TUE JAN 29 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0331 PM     NON-TSTM WND GST POPLAR BLUFF            36.76N 90.41W
01/29/2008  M61 MPH          BUTLER             MO   ASOS

            LATE REPORT. WIND GUST ASSOCIATED WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE.

&&

SMITTY

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
404 PM CST TUE JAN 29 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0344 PM     HAIL             MARBLE HILL             37.30N 89.98W
01/29/2008  M0.75 INCH       BOLLINGER          MO   TRAINED SPOTTER

            PENNY SIZE HAIL REPORTED IN COMMUNITY COVERING THE
            GROUND.

&&

SMITTY

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