Severe Thunderstorm Warning 22, NWS Paducah, KY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR HIGH WIND WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
413 PM CST TUE JAN 29 2008

.DISCUSSION...
THREE SYSTEMS OVER THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS WITH MANY CHALLENGES...SO
WILL TRY NOT TO GET TOO VERBOSE.

INTENSE COLD FRONT JUST INSIDE THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF
OUR CWA AT THE TIME OF THIS WRITING. EXPECT A SQUALL LINE OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ALONG OR IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND
CROSS OUR CWA THROUGH THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EARLY
AFTERNOON HOURS. EXPECT THE FRONT AND THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER TO
EXIT THE SOUTHEAST CORNER OF OUR CWA BETWEEN 7 AND 8 PM.
TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS WILL DROP OFF SHARPLY BEHIND THE
FRONT...AND PRECIP WILL LIKELY CHANGE OVER TO SNOW BEFORE ENDING BY
MIDNIGHT WITH ONLY A DUSTING EXPECTED.

NOT MUCH TIME IN BETWEEN THIS SYSTEM AND THE NEXT. MODELS BRINGING
SYSTEM NUMBER TWO INTO THE REGION ON THURSDAY. AGAIN THE TRACK AND
TIMING OF THE SYSTEM WILL MAKE ALL OF THE DIFFERENCE WHEN IT COMES
TO SNOW POTENTIAL WITH THIS SYSTEM. GFS AND ECMWF KEEP THE SFC LOW A
BIT FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST THAN THE NAM. THIS SCENARIO WOULD
OBVIOUSLY YIELD A COLDER SOLUTION AND THUS A BETTER CHANCE FOR SNOW.
ASSUMING THE STORM TAKES THE MORE SOUTHERLY TRACK...PRECIP SHOULD
START OUT AS A MIX OVER THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN SECTIONS AND REMAIN
A MIX THROUGHOUT THE DAY THERE WITH ALL LIQUID ELSEWHERE. EASTWARD
PROGRESSION OF THE CHANGEOVER TO SNOW WILL BEGIN THURSDAY
EVENING...AND ALL SNOW ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA AFTER MIDNIGHT. BY 12Z
FRIDAY COULD SEE 2-4 INCHES OF SNOW ACROSS ALL OF OF OUR CWA EXCEPT
THE SOUTHEAST CORNER. EXPECT LIGHT SNOW TO FLURRIES ON THE BACK SIDE
OF THE SYSTEM ON FRIDAY...BUT LITTLE TO NO ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION
EXPECTED.

NEXT SYSTEM TO MOVE INTO THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT. CURRENT
INDICATIONS ARE THAT THIS EVENT WILL REMAIN ALL LIQUID. THE COLD
FRONT WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL CROSS THE REGION ON TUESDAY. EXPECT
LIGHT PRECIP TO LINGER BEHIND THE FRONT INTO TUESDAY EVENING.
1000-850 THICKNESS VALUES WOULD INDICATE A CHANGEOVER TO LIGHT SNOW
TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...BUT SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE
FORECAST TO BE TOO WARM. WILL LIKELY HAVE TO MAKE ADJUSTMENTS AS WE
DRAW NEARER TO THIS EVENT.

&&

.AVIATION...
CLEAR SLOT OVER CENTRAL MISSOURI IS ALLOWING FOR SUBSTANTIAL SURFACE
HEATING IN THAT AREA LATE THIS MORNING. 60 DEGREE DEW POINTS
EXTENDED UP TO CENTRAL ARKANSAS BY 16Z. THIS WILL FAVOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF LOW TOPPED CONVECTION ALONG THE VERY SHARP COLD FRONT
THIS AFTERNOON...LIKELY OVER SE MISSOURI. PER SPC MCD...THE FORECAST
AREA WILL BE UPGRADED TO MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE SHORTLY.

FORECAST WAS UPDATED FOR SOMEWHAT WARMER TEMPS AND HIGHER DEW
POINTS...MAINLY OVER SOUTHEAST MISSOURI AND SOUTHERN ILLINOIS. THIS
IS THE REGION WHERE SOME SUN IS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AS THE DRY
SLOT EDGES EASTWARD. TIMING OF THE ARRIVAL OF COLD AIR WAS PUSHED
BACK JUST A FEW HOURS...SO MENTION OF SNOW FOR THIS AFTERNOON WAS
TRIMMED BACK A COUPLE COUNTIES.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...HIGH WIND WARNING ALL COUNTIES TIL 06Z WEDNESDAY
MO...HIGH WIND WARNING ALL COUNTIES TIL 06Z WEDNESDAY
IL...HIGH WIND WARNING ALL COUNTIES TIL 06Z WEDNESDAY
IN...HIGH WIND WARNING ALL COUNTIES TIL 06Z WEDNESDAY

&&

PUBLIC...JP
AVIATION...MY

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
422 PM CST TUE JAN 29 2008

ILZ075>078-080>094-INZ081-082-085>088-KYZ001>022-MOZ076-086-087-
100-107>112-114-301045-
JEFFERSON-WAYNE IL-EDWARDS-WABASH-PERRY IL-FRANKLIN-HAMILTON-
WHITE-JACKSON-WILLIAMSON-SALINE-GALLATIN-UNION IL-JOHNSON-POPE-
HARDIN-ALEXANDER-PULASKI-MASSAC-GIBSON-PIKE-POSEY-VANDERBURGH-
WARRICK-SPENCER-FULTON-HICKMAN-CARLISLE-BALLARD-MCCRACKEN-GRAVES-
LIVINGSTON-MARSHALL-CALLOWAY-CRITTENDEN-LYON-TRIGG-CALDWELL-
UNION KY-WEBSTER-HOPKINS-CHRISTIAN-HENDERSON-DAVIESS-MCLEAN-
MUHLENBERG-TODD-PERRY MO-BOLLINGER-CAPE GIRARDEAU-WAYNE
MO-CARTER-RIPLEY-BUTLER-STODDARD-SCOTT-MISSISSIPPI-NEW MADRID-
422 PM CST TUE JAN 29 2008

...MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN
ILLINOIS...SOUTHWEST INDIANA...WESTERN KENTUCKY AND SOUTHEAST
MISSOURI.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM LATE AFTERNOON
INTO EARLY THIS EVENING WITH THE PASSAGE OF A STRONG COLD FRONT.
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS LIKELY ALONG AND JUST AHEAD
OF THIS BOUNDARY THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. THIS ACTIVITY IS
EXPECTED TO RACE ACROSS THE REGION AT CLOSE TO 70 MPH. THE FRONT AND
STORMS WILL LEAVE THE REGION BETWEEN 600 PM AND 700 PM THIS EVENING.

THE PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS DUE TO POWERFUL WINDS
ALOFT...HOWEVER LARGE HAIL AND AN ISOLATED TORNADO ALSO POSSIBLE.

STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS WILL PERSIST OUTSIDE OF THE THUNDERSTORMS FOR
MOST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT. WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST
SHIFTING TO THE NORTHWEST WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. WINDS WILL
AVERAGE 30 TO 40 MPH WITH GUSTS OF 50 MPH LIKELY...AND UP TO 65 TO
70 MPH POSSIBLE. A HIGH WIND WARNING IS IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT.
REFER TO THE HIGH WIND WARNING FOR MORE DETAILS.

ONCE THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH...SHARPLY COLDER AIR WILL QUICKLY
DROP TEMPERATURES INTO THE UPPER 20S AND LOWER 30S BY 900 PM. WIND
CHILLS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE TEENS BY LATER THIS EVENING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

THERE IS A CHANCE OF LIGHT WINTRY ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW OR ICE
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY
THIS EVENING.

PS/JAP

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