Severe Thunderstorm Warning 355, NWS Norman, OK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1024 PM CDT TUE MAY 6 2008

.UPDATE...
LINGERING SEVERE STORMS FROM EARLIER CONVECTION OVER THE TEXAS
SOUTH PLAINS HAVE MOVED INTO THE FAR WESTERN PART OF OUR NORTH
TEXAS COUNTIES. THE AREA JUST TO THE SOUTHWEST CONTINUES TO BE
RELATIVELY ACTIVE WITH NEW STORMS FORMING WHICH COULD ALSO MOVE
INTO THE CWA. MEANWHILE... NEW T-STORM DEVELOPMENT OVER SOUTHEAST
NEW MEXICO AND SOUTHWEST TEXAS IS LIKELY BEING AIDED BY THE
APPROACHING UPPER WAVE. WE EXPECT THIS SYSTEM TO CONTRIBUTE TO
ADDITIONAL T-STORM DEVELOPMENT OVER THE AREA LATER TONIGHT AS THE
LOW LEVEL JET CONTINUES TO INCREASE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 507 PM CDT TUE MAY 6 2008/

UPDATE...
DIVIDED UP TONIGHTS BROKE WEATHER GRID TO REFLECT LOWER POPS THIS
EVENING IN MOST AREAS... ESPECIALLY OVER THE CENTRAL AND EAST.
ALSO LIMITED THE SEVERE RISK TO MAINLY THE FAR WEST. WILL CONTINUE
WITH HIGHER CHANCES FOR THE LATE NIGHT HOURS AS THE UPPER TROUGH
WILL BE CLOSER TO THE AREA.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 236 PM CDT TUE MAY 6 2008/

DISCUSSION...
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT TIMING AND LOCATION ARE THE BIG QUESTIONS
THIS AFTERNOON. IT APPEARS THAT THE MOST FAVORABLE LOCATION FOR
STORMS TO DEVELOP WILL BE ACROSS SOUTHWEST KANSAS AND SOUTHEAST
COLORADO... WHICH HAPPENS TO BE WHERE A FEW CELLS HAVE ALREADY
DEVELOPED. LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE EXTENDS SOUTHEAST FROM THOSE
STORMS... AND WE MAY SEE INITIATION SOUTHEAST INTO NORTHWESTERN
OKLAHOMA BY LATE AFTERNOON. OF COURSE... WHAT HAPPENS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING WILL HAVE A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON WHAT
HAPPENS TONIGHT... AND... BY EXTENSION... TOMORROW.

THE EXISTING FORECAST STILL LOOKS REASONABLE FOR THE NEXT DAY OR
TWO... AND THERE APPEARS TO BE NO PRESSING REASON TO ADJUST
ANYTHING IN THE LATER PERIODS. SO... WE WILL CONTINUE MAKING
SHORT-TERM ADJUSTMENTS AS THEY BECOME WARRANTED... AND WILL LEAVE
THE REST OF THE FORECAST ALONE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  74  64  70  54 /  40  40  80  50
HOBART OK         77  63  73  50 /  40  50  70  40
WICHITA FALLS TX  79  65  76  57 /  40  50  70  30
GAGE OK           82  61  70  47 /  40  40  70  30
PONCA CITY OK     76  67  74  55 /  40  60  80  50
DURANT OK         76  65  72  61 /  40  30  80  40

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

32/22

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1026 PM CDT TUE MAY 6 2008

OKZ006-007-070400-
ALFALFA OK-GRANT OK-
1026 PM CDT TUE MAY 6 2008

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY...

THIS SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY IS FOR ALFALFA AND GRANT COUNTIES.

A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WAS LOCATED FROM 25 MILES NORTH OF
MANCHESTER TO 17 MILES NORTHWEST OF BURLINGTON AT 1026 PM CDT...
MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 40 MPH.

A WIND SHIFT LINE WILL PRECEDE THE STORMS...WITH WINDS PICKING UP
FROM THE NORTHWEST...AND GUSTING OVER 40 MPH.

THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAIN AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING WILL FOLLOW
BEHIND THE INITIAL WIND SHIFT.

BURKE

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1047 PM CDT TUE MAY 6 2008

TXZ083>085-070430-
HARDEMAN TX-WILBARGER TX-FOARD TX-
1047 PM CDT TUE MAY 6 2008

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY...

THIS SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY IS FOR FOARD...HARDEMAN AND
WILBARGER COUNTIES.

A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WAS LOCATED FROM 4 MILES NORTHWEST OF
THALIA TO 5 MILES WEST OF GRAYBACK AT 1047 PM CDT...MOVING NORTHEAST
AT 35 MPH.

THESE STORMS WILL PRODUCE VERY HEAVY RAIN AND SMALL HAIL AS THEY
APPROACH VERNON...MEDICINE MOUND...AND EVENTUALLY LOCATIONS EAST AND
NORTH OF VERNON. OCCASIONAL WIND GUSTS OVER 40 MPH ARE ALSO POSSIBLE.

PEOPLE SHOULD REMAIN ALERT...AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS AND
POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

BURKE

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1057 PM CDT TUE MAY 6 2008

OKZ006-007-070430-
ALFALFA OK-GRANT OK-
1057 PM CDT TUE MAY 6 2008

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY...

THIS SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY IS FOR ALFALFA AND GRANT COUNTIES.

A THUNDERSTORM OUTFLOW BOUNDARY AND SHARP WIND SHIFT A LINE EXTENDED
FROM 22 MILES NORTH OF RENFROW TO DRIFTWOOD AT 1055 PM CDT...MOVING
SOUTHEAST AT 40 MPH.

BEHIND THIS BOUNDARY...WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE NORTHWEST...WITH
GUSTS OVER 40 MPH. MUCH OF THE RAIN AND THUNDER WITH THIS SYSTEM
WILL REMAIN IN KANSAS THROUGH 1130 PM.

BURKE

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1128 PM CDT TUE MAY 6 2008

OKZ007-008-070505-
KAY OK-GRANT OK-
1128 PM CDT TUE MAY 6 2008

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY...

THIS SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY IS FOR GRANT AND KAY COUNTIES.

A THUNDERSTORM OUTFLOW BOUNDARY...AND SHARP WIND SHIFT...WAS LOCATED
FROM 20 MILES NORTH OF NEWKIRK TO 14 MILES WEST OF POND CREEK AT
1125 PM CDT...MOVING EAST AT 40 MPH.

BEHIND THE BOUNDARY...WINDS WILL TURN TO THE NORTH AND
INCREASE...WITH A FEW GUSTS OVER 35 MPH. BY MIDNIGHT...THE WIND
SHIFT WILL REACH THE NORTHERN SIDE OF ENID...OVER TOWARD TONKAWA AND
PONCA CITY. BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL ALSO OCCUR ALONG THE KANSAS
BORDER.

BURKE

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1137 PM CDT TUE MAY 6 2008

OKZ037-TXZ085-070515-
TILLMAN OK-WILBARGER TX-
1137 PM CDT TUE MAY 6 2008

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY...

THIS SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY IS FOR TILLMAN AND WILBARGER
COUNTIES.

A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WAS LOCATED FROM 5 MILES WEST OF
GRAYBACK TO 6 MILES WEST OF DAVIDSON AT 1137 PM CDT...MOVING EAST AT
20 MPH.

THESE STORMS WILL PRODUCE VERY HEAVY RAIN...WHICH WILL REDUCE
VISIBILITY...AND MAY CAUSE WATER TO POND ON SOME ROADWAYS. IN
ADDITION...SMALL HAIL AND WINDS GUSTS UP TO 45 MPH ARE LIKELY. SOME
OTHER LOCATIONS AFFECTED WILL INCLUDE VERNON...LOCKETT...AND
OKLAUNION.

BURKE