Severe Thunderstorm Warning 367, NWS Norman, OK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1021 AM CDT WED MAY 7 2008

.DISCUSSION...
WIDESPREAD RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE AT MID-MORNING... AS
SUBSTANTIAL MOISTURE IS BEING LIFTED IN ADVANCE OF AN UPPER LOW
NOW CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE. THE THICK
CLOUDS AND RAIN HAVE KEPT RELATIVELY COOL TEMPERATURES IN PLACE...
GENERALLY LOWER THAN MODELS HAVE BEEN FORECASTING. A FORECAST
UPDATE HAS ALREADY BEEN ISSUED TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS... USING RUC13
NUMBERS WHICH SEEMED REASONABLE AT THE TIME. EVEN THOSE VALUES
HAVE BEEN OVERLY OPTIMISTIC ABOUT HEATING OVER MOST OF OUR
FORECAST AREA.

MODERATELY STRONG INSTABILITY STILL LOOKS LIKE A GOOD BET ACROSS
OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON... AND SEVERE STORMS ARE A
POSSIBILITY. HIGH VALUES OF PRECIPITABLE WATER WILL BRING A RISK
OF FLOODING... BUT THE RAINFALL RATES SO FAR HAVE NOT BEEN
EXCESSIVE.

THE FORECAST WILL CONTINUE TO BE UPDATED AS NEEDED TODAY TO
REFLECT THE LATEST EXPECTATIONS IN THE SHORT TERM.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 326 AM CDT WED MAY 7 2008/

DISCUSSION...
UPPER LOW TO OUR SOUTHWEST WILL CONT TO LIFT NORTHEAST TOWARD THE
AREA THIS MORNING. THIS WILL RESULT IN HIGH LIKELIHOOD OF
SHWRS/TSTMS ACROSS MOST OF OKLAHOMA/N TEXAS TODAY. SOME OF THIS
ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY BE SEVERE. HOWEVER WIDESPREAD NATURE OF ACTIVITY
MAY REDUCE RISK OF MORE SIGNIFICANT SEVERE. THERE WILL ALSO BE
POSSIBILITY OF HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS NORTHERN HALF OF OKLAHOMA
TODAY. UPPER LOW WILL LIFT TONIGHT WITH SOME WRAP-AROUND PRECIP
THROUGH THE EVENING. THU DURING THE DAY WILL BE DRY BEFORE ANOTHER
QUICK SHOT OF SHWR/TSTM ACTIVITY THU NIGHT AS SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS THU NIGHT WITH BEST CHANCES NORTH OF I-40.
SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY COULD APPROACH SEVERE LEVELS.

ANOTHER SFC FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA ON SATURDAY WITH A CHANCE OF
PRECIP... MAINLY CENTRAL INTO EASTERN OKLAHOMA WHERE BETTER MOISTURE
WILL RESIDE. SLIGHTLY COOLER AIRMASS SETTLES IN ON SUNDAY. ANOTHER
STORM SYSTEM MAY MOVE INTO THE PLAINS AROUND NEXT TUESDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  72  53  80  56 / 100  30   0  30
HOBART OK         73  52  82  56 /  70  20   0  30
WICHITA FALLS TX  77  57  85  59 /  70  10   0  20
GAGE OK           71  48  78  50 /  90  20  10  30
PONCA CITY OK     71  53  71  56 / 100  50   0  40
DURANT OK         74  60  81  62 /  90  20   0  20

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

23/23

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
146 PM CDT WED MAY 7 2008

OKZ004>048-050>052-TXZ083>090-081200-
HARPER-WOODS-ALFALFA-GRANT-KAY-ELLIS-WOODWARD-MAJOR-GARFIELD-NOBLE-
ROGER MILLS-DEWEY-CUSTER-BLAINE-KINGFISHER-LOGAN-PAYNE-BECKHAM-
WASHITA-CADDO-CANADIAN-OKLAHOMA-LINCOLN-GRADY-MCCLAIN-CLEVELAND-
POTTAWATOMIE-SEMINOLE-HUGHES-HARMON-GREER-KIOWA-JACKSON-TILLMAN-
COMANCHE-STEPHENS-GARVIN-MURRAY-PONTOTOC-COAL-COTTON-JEFFERSON-
CARTER-JOHNSTON-ATOKA-LOVE-MARSHALL-BRYAN-HARDEMAN-FOARD-WILBARGER-
WICHITA-KNOX-BAYLOR-ARCHER-CLAY-
146 PM CDT WED MAY 7 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK COVERS NORTHERN...WESTERN...
CENTRAL...AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA...AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...

THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK...
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA... AND ALL OF WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.

LOCATION...
THE SLIGHT RISK AREA IS ALONG AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM STILLWATER...
TO EL RENO... TO ANADARKO... TO HOLLIS OKLAHOMA. THIS INCLUDES ALL
OF WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.

TIMING...
ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...
THE MOST LIKELY TIME FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE AFTER 3 PM INTO THIS
EVENING.

IMPACTS...
HAIL TO THE SIZE OF GOLFBALLS AND WIND GUSTS TO 65 MPH WILL BE THE
MAIN CONCERNS. ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE.

RECOMMENDED ACTIONS...
STORM SPOTTER GROUPS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL IN THE
SLIGHT RISK AREA SHOULD PLAN FOR SEVERE WEATHER OPERATIONS THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING.

DISCUSSION...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS
OKLAHOMA... AND PARTS OF WESTERN NORTH TEXAS THIS AFTERNOON AS AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES FROM WEST TEXAS INTO CENTRAL OKLAHOMA. A
SURFACE LOW OVER WESTERN NORTH TEXAS AT EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WILL
ALSO MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS OKLAHOMA THIS AFTERNOON... WITH A DRYLINE
EXTENDING SOUTH INTO TEXAS. A COLD FRONT HAD ALSO MOVED ACROSS
NORTHERN AND WESTERN OKLAHOMA BY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. COLD
TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA WITH THE UPPER LOW.
UNSTABLE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATER THIS AFTERNOON
EAST OF THE SURFACE AND UPPER LOW. ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER... THUNDERSTORMS IN SOUTH CENTRAL
AND SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA WILL HAVE A GREATER SEVERE WEATHER THREAT...
WITH VERTICAL WIND SHEAR SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT SUPERCELLS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING. WHILE LARGE HAIL AND STRONG WINDS WILL
BE THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER CONCERNS... ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL
ALSO BE POSSIBLE MAINLY IN SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA.
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE. THE SEVERE WEATHER
POTENTIAL WILL END THIS EVENING AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES INTO EASTERN
OKLAHOMA.

PROBABILITY TABLE...
VALID THROUGH 700 AM CDT THURSDAY MAY 8.
PROBABILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRING IN THE
              NWS NORMAN COUNTY WARNING AREA... 100 PERCENT.
PROBABILITY OF SEVERE STORMS IF STORMS OCCUR... 60 PERCENT.

OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER...
A COLD FRONT MAY ACT AS A FOCUS FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HOWEVER... HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE
ACROSS MUCH OF OKLAHOMA AND PARTS OF WESTERN NORTH TEXAS. THE HEAVY
RAINFALL MAY LEAD TO FLOODING... ESPECIALLY IN LOW-LYING AND POORLY
DRAINED AREAS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK...
THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY MORNING... BUT SEVERE STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED.

OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER...
NONE.

THE NEXT SCHEDULED HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK WILL BE ISSUED AT 7 AM
THURSDAY.

MAXWELL

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
959 AM CDT WED MAY 7 2008

OKZ017-018-024-025-027>030-071545-
BLAINE OK-KINGFISHER OK-CANADIAN OK-OKLAHOMA OK-POTTAWATOMIE OK-
CLEVELAND OK-GRADY OK-MCCLAIN OK-
959 AM CDT WED MAY 7 2008

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY...

THIS SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY IS FOR BLAINE...CANADIAN...
CLEVELAND...GRADY...KINGFISHER...MCCLAIN...OKLAHOMA AND POTTAWATOMIE
COUNTIES.

A LARGE CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS WAS MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL OKLAHOMA
AT 959 AM CDT...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 45 MPH.  MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL
WILL OCCUR WITH THE STRONGER STORMS THIS MORNING.  HOURLY RAINFALL RATES
OF 1/2 TO 1 INCH WILL BE POSSIBLE WHICH WILL CAUSE SOME MINOR FLOODING
OF POOR DRAINAGE AREAS...ESPECIALLY IN THE GREATER METROPOLITAN
AREA.  THE RAIN WILL GRADUALLY TAPER TO LIGHT SHOWERS OVER THE NEXT
ONE TO TWO HOURS.  ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY
REDEVELOP LATER THIS AFTERNOON AS A STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES CENTRAL
OKLAHOMA.

SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AND NO WARNINGS ARE ANTICIPATED AT
THIS TIME.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1000 AM CDT WED MAY 07 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0609 AM     HAIL             MAYSVILLE               34.82N 97.41W
05/07/2008  E0.75 INCH       GARVIN             OK   PUBLIC

&&

TY

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
154 PM CDT WED MAY 7 2008

OKZ045-TXZ090-071915-
JEFFERSON OK-CLAY TX-
154 PM CDT WED MAY 7 2008

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY...

THIS SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY IS FOR CLAY AND JEFFERSON COUNTIES.

A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 3 MILES EAST OF JOLLY AT 154 PM
CDT...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 35 MPH.  SMALL HAIL...BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL
AND WIND GUSTS TO 45 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

PEOPLE IN CLAY AND JEFFERSON COUNTIES SHOULD MONITOR THE WEATHER
SITUATION CLOSELY. LISTEN FOR WARNINGS AND REMAIN ALERT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
211 PM CDT WED MAY 7 2008

OKZ036-TXZ083-085-071930-
JACKSON OK-HARDEMAN TX-WILBARGER TX-
211 PM CDT WED MAY 7 2008

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY...

THIS SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY IS FOR HARDEMAN...JACKSON AND
WILBARGER COUNTIES.

STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WERE LOCATED NEAR GOODLETT... NEAR MEDICINE
MOUND... AND JUST WEST OF RAYLAND AT 211 PM CDT...MOVING NORTHEAST
AT 25 MPH. SMALL HAIL IS LIKELY. SMALL HAIL WAS REPORTED COVERING
THE GROUND NEAR GOODLETT.

PEOPLE IN HARDEMAN...JACKSON AND WILBARGER COUNTIES...INCLUDING THE
CITIES OF QUANAH AND VERNON...SHOULD MONITOR THE WEATHER SITUATION
CLOSELY. LISTEN FOR WARNINGS AND REMAIN ALERT FOR THREATENING WEATHER
CONDITIONS.

..SPEG.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
214 PM CDT WED MAY 7 2008

OKZ039-071930-
STEPHENS OK-
214 PM CDT WED MAY 7 2008

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY...

THIS SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY IS FOR STEPHENS COUNTY.

A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED OVER THE NORTHERN PORTION OF
WAURIKA LAKE AT 214 PM CDT...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 35 MPH. SMALL HAIL
AND WINDS AROUND 50 MPH ARE POSSIBLE.

PEOPLE IN STEPHENS COUNTY...INCLUDING THE CITY OF DUNCAN...SHOULD
MONITOR THE WEATHER SITUATION CLOSELY. LISTEN FOR WARNINGS AND REMAIN
ALERT FOR THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS.

..SPEG.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
235 PM CDT WED MAY 7 2008

TXZ085-071945-
WILBARGER TX-
235 PM CDT WED MAY 7 2008

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY...

THIS SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY IS FOR WILBARGER COUNTY.

STRONG THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDED FROM FARGO TO VERNON AT 235 PM
CDT...MOVING EAST-NORTHEAST AT 25 MPH. SMALL HAIL AND WINDS AROUND
50 MPH ARE POSSIBLE.

PEOPLE IN WILBARGER COUNTY...INCLUDING THE CITY OF VERNON...SHOULD
MONITOR THE WEATHER SITUATION CLOSELY. LISTEN FOR WARNINGS AND REMAIN
ALERT FOR THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS.

..SPEG.