Flash Flood Warning 12, NWS Norman, OK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
319 PM CDT WED MAY 7 2008

.DISCUSSION...
THE LARGE AREA OF CONVECTION CURRENTLY COVERING MOST OF OUR
FORECAST AREA IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT NORTHEAST THIS EVENING AS THE
UPPER LOW MOVES INTO EASTERN OKLAHOMA. UNTIL THEN... WE EXPECT THE
USUAL ARRANGEMENT OF ADVERSE WEATHER... RANGING FROM A RISK OF
TORNADIC SUPERCELLS ACROSS OUR SOUTH-CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST
COUNTIES... TO A POSSIBILITY OF SMALL FUNNELS UNDER THE UPPER
LOW... TO SIMPLY RAIN AND SHOWERS ACROSS MOST OF THE NORTH.

AS THE LOW MOVES EAST INTO EASTERN OKLAHOMA THIS EVENING... THE
WESTERN EDGE OF THE RAIN SHOULD BEGIN TO CROSS OUR FORECAST
AREA... AND ALL RAIN IS EXPECTED TO END BY TOMORROW MORNING.

ANOTHER UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS AGAIN TOMORROW NIGHT... AND ANOTHER OVER THE WEEKEND.

ONLY THE FIRST PERIOD OF THIS FORECAST ISSUANCE WILL CONTAIN
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  53  80  56  79 /  50   0  30   0
HOBART OK         52  82  56  80 /  20   0  30   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  57  85  59  86 /  20   0  20  10
GAGE OK           49  78  50  81 /  20  10  30   0
PONCA CITY OK     53  71  56  76 /  70   0  40   0
DURANT OK         60  81  62  83 /  40   0  20  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

23/23

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
418 PM CDT WED MAY 7 2008

OKZ004>048-050>052-TXZ083>090-081200-
HARPER-WOODS-ALFALFA-GRANT-KAY-ELLIS-WOODWARD-MAJOR-GARFIELD-NOBLE-
ROGER MILLS-DEWEY-CUSTER-BLAINE-KINGFISHER-LOGAN-PAYNE-BECKHAM-
WASHITA-CADDO-CANADIAN-OKLAHOMA-LINCOLN-GRADY-MCCLAIN-CLEVELAND-
POTTAWATOMIE-SEMINOLE-HUGHES-HARMON-GREER-KIOWA-JACKSON-TILLMAN-
COMANCHE-STEPHENS-GARVIN-MURRAY-PONTOTOC-COAL-COTTON-JEFFERSON-
CARTER-JOHNSTON-ATOKA-LOVE-MARSHALL-BRYAN-HARDEMAN-FOARD-WILBARGER-
WICHITA-KNOX-BAYLOR-ARCHER-CLAY-
418 PM CDT WED MAY 7 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK COVERS NORTHERN...WESTERN...
CENTRAL...AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA...AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...

THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK...
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA... AND ALL OF WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.

LOCATION...
THE SLIGHT RISK AREA IS ALONG AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM STILLWATER...
TO EL RENO... TO ANADARKO... TO HOLLIS OKLAHOMA. THIS INCLUDES ALL
OF WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.

TIMING...
SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH 10 PM.

IMPACTS...
HAIL TO THE SIZE OF GOLFBALLS AND WIND GUSTS TO 65 MPH WILL BE THE
MAIN CONCERNS. ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE...
ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA.

RECOMMENDED ACTIONS...
STORM SPOTTER GROUPS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL IN THE
SLIGHT RISK AREA SHOULD PLAN FOR SEVERE WEATHER OPERATIONS THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING.

DISCUSSION...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS
PARTS OF OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS THROUGH THIS EVENING AS AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES NORTHEAST ACROSS CENTRAL INTO EASTERN
OKLAHOMA. A SURFACE LOW NEAR ANADARKO OKLAHOMA AT MID-AFTERNOON WILL
ALSO MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS OKLAHOMA THROUGH THIS EVENING... WITH A
DRYLINE EXTENDING SOUTH INTO TEXAS. A FRONT ALSO EXTENDED ACROSS
CENTRAL INTO NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AT MID-AFTERNOON. COLD TEMPERATURES
ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA WITH THE UPPER LOW.
UNSTABLE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP EAST OF THE SURFACE AND
UPPER LOW. SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE RISK AREA INTO
THIS EVENING. VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND MODERATE INSTABILITY WILL BE
SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT SUPERCELLS INTO THIS EVENING. WHILE LARGE HAIL
AND STRONG WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER CONCERNS...
TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE... ESPECIALLY IN SOUTH CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE. THE
SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL WILL END THIS EVENING AS THE UPPER LOW
MOVES INTO EASTERN OKLAHOMA.

PROBABILITY TABLE...
VALID THROUGH 700 AM CDT THURSDAY MAY 8.
PROBABILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRING IN THE
              NWS NORMAN COUNTY WARNING AREA... 100 PERCENT.
PROBABILITY OF SEVERE STORMS IF STORMS OCCUR... 100 PERCENT.

OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER...
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS MUCH OF OKLAHOMA AND
PARTS OF WESTERN NORTH TEXAS. THE HEAVY RAINFALL MAY LEAD TO
FLOODING... ESPECIALLY IN LOW-LYING AND POORLY DRAINED AREAS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK...
THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY MORNING... BUT SEVERE STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED.

OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER...
NONE.

THE NEXT SCHEDULED HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK WILL BE ISSUED AT 7 AM
THURSDAY.

MAXWELL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
433 PM CDT WED MAY 07 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0420 PM     HAIL             1 E MIDDLEBERG          35.10N 97.73W
05/07/2008  E0.88 INCH       GRADY              OK   AMATEUR RADIO

&&

DW

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
435 PM CDT WED MAY 7 2008

OKZ037-044-TXZ086-090-072145-
COTTON OK-TILLMAN OK-WICHITA TX-CLAY TX-
435 PM CDT WED MAY 7 2008

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY...

THIS SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY IS FOR CLAY...COTTON...TILLMAN AND
WICHITA COUNTIES.

A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WAS LOCATED FROM 5 MILES SOUTH OF
HOLLISTER TO 4 MILES NORTHWEST OF DEAN AT 435 PM CDT...MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 32 MPH. WINDS OVER 50 MPH WERE REPORTED AT SHEPPARD AIR
FORCE BASE... AND SMALL HAIL HAS ALSO BEEN REPORTED WITH THESE
STORMS.

PEOPLE IN CLAY...COTTON...TILLMAN AND WICHITA COUNTIES...INCLUDING
THE CITIES OF BURKBURNETT AND WICHITA FALLS...SHOULD MONITOR THE
WEATHER SITUATION CLOSELY. LISTEN FOR WARNINGS AND REMAIN ALERT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS.

..SPEG.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
436 PM CDT WED MAY 7 2008

OKZ025-028-029-072200-
OKLAHOMA OK-CLEVELAND OK-MCCLAIN OK-
436 PM CDT WED MAY 7 2008

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY...

THIS SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY IS FOR CLEVELAND...MCCLAIN AND
OKLAHOMA COUNTIES.

A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED JUST WEST OF MOORE AT 436 PM
CDT...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 27 MPH. ANOTHER STRONG STORM WAS NEAR
NEWCASTLE.

HEAVY RAIN...SMALL HAIL AND WINDS AROUND 45 MPH ARE POSSIBLE AS
THESE STORMS MOVE THROUGH THE SOUTH OKLAHOMA CITY METRO AREA.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
438 PM CDT WED MAY 7 2008

OKZ035-038-072200-
KIOWA OK-COMANCHE OK-
438 PM CDT WED MAY 7 2008

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY...

THIS SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY IS FOR COMANCHE AND KIOWA COUNTIES.

A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED OVER EXTREME WESTERN WICHITA
MOUNTAINS WILDLIFE REFUGE AT 438 PM CDT...MOVING EAST AT 34 MPH.

SMALL HAIL AND WINDS AROUND 50 MPH ARE POSSIBLE.

PEOPLE IN COMANCHE AND KIOWA COUNTIES...INCLUDING THE CITY OF
LAWTON...SHOULD MONITOR THE WEATHER SITUATION CLOSELY. LISTEN FOR
WARNINGS AND REMAIN ALERT FOR THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS.

..SPEG.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
443 PM CDT WED MAY 07 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0423 PM     TSTM WND DMG     EMPIRE CITY             34.46N 98.04W
05/07/2008                   STEPHENS           OK   AMATEUR RADIO

            WIND GUST BLEW DOWN A 20 FOOT TALL PINE TREE.

&&

TAYLOR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
504 PM CDT WED MAY 07 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0500 PM     HAIL             DOUGHERTY               34.40N 97.05W
05/07/2008  E0.88 INCH       MURRAY             OK   EMERGENCY MNGR

&&

DW