Tornado Warning 11, NWS Jackson, MS

000 
WWUS54 KJAN 101755
SVSJAN

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1155 AM CST THU JAN 10 2008

MSC007-051-079-089-101845-
/O.CON.KJAN.TO.W.0011.000000T0000Z-080110T1845Z/
MADISON MS-LEAKE MS-HOLMES MS-ATTALA MS-
1155 AM CST THU JAN 10 2008

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1245 PM CST FOR
ATTALA...SOUTHEASTERN HOLMES...NORTHWESTERN LEAKE AND NORTHEASTERN
MADISON COUNTIES...

AT 1155 AM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS WERE
TRACKING A TORNADO.  THIS TORNADO WAS LOCATED NEAR GOODMAN...OR ABOUT
14 MILES SOUTHWEST OF DURANT...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 45 MPH.

THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR...
  GOODMAN BY NOON CST...
  SALLIS...NEWPORT AND 7 MILES SOUTHEAST OF DURANT BY 1210 PM CST...
  MCADAMS BY 1215 PM CST...
  KOSCIUSKO AND 6 MILES SOUTHEAST OF HESTERVILLE BY 1225 PM CST...
  9 MILES NORTHWEST OF SMYRNA BY 1230 PM CST...
  ETHEL BY 1235 PM CST...

THE SAFEST PLACE TO BE DURING A TORNADO IS IN A BASEMENT. GET UNDER A
WORKBENCH OR OTHER PIECE OF STURDY FURNITURE. IF NO BASEMENT IS
AVAILABLE...SEEK SHELTER ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF THE BUILDING IN AN
INTERIOR HALLWAY OR ROOM SUCH AS A CLOSET. USE BLANKETS OR PILLOWS TO
COVER YOUR BODY AND ALWAYS STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

IF IN MOBILE HOMES OR VEHICLES...EVACUATE THEM AND GET INSIDE A
SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER. IF NO SHELTER IS AVAILABLE...LIE FLAT IN THE
NEAREST DITCH OR OTHER LOW SPOT AND COVER YOUR HEAD WITH YOUR HANDS.

LAT...LON 3276 9004 3289 8996 3294 9009 3296 9017
      3298 9017 3322 8955 3294 8932
TIME...MOT...LOC 1755Z 242DEG 40KT 3293 8995

$$

GARRETT

000 
WWUS54 KJAN 101801
SVSJAN

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1201 PM CST THU JAN 10 2008

MSC007-051-079-089-101845-
/O.CON.KJAN.TO.W.0011.000000T0000Z-080110T1845Z/
MADISON MS-LEAKE MS-HOLMES MS-ATTALA MS-
1201 PM CST THU JAN 10 2008

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1245 PM CST FOR
ATTALA...SOUTHEASTERN HOLMES...NORTHWESTERN LEAKE AND NORTHEASTERN
MADISON COUNTIES...

AT 1201 PM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS WERE
TRACKING A TORNADO.  THIS TORNADO WAS LOCATED NEAR GOODMAN...OR ABOUT
10 MILES SOUTHWEST OF DURANT...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 50 MPH.

THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR...
  6 MILES SOUTHEAST OF DURANT BY 1205 PM CST...
  SALLIS BY 1210 PM CST...
  MCADAMS BY 1215 PM CST...
  KOSCIUSKO AND HESTERVILLE BY 1220 PM CST...
  ETHEL BY 1230 PM CST...

THIS IS AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS AND LIFE THREATENING SITUATION. THIS
STORM IS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING STRONG TO VIOLENT TORNADOES. IF YOU ARE
IN THE PATH OF THIS TORNADO...TAKE COVER IMMEDIATELY

THE SAFEST PLACE TO BE DURING A TORNADO IS IN A BASEMENT. GET UNDER A
WORKBENCH OR OTHER PIECE OF STURDY FURNITURE. IF NO BASEMENT IS
AVAILABLE...SEEK SHELTER ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF THE BUILDING IN AN
INTERIOR HALLWAY OR ROOM SUCH AS A CLOSET. USE BLANKETS OR PILLOWS TO
COVER YOUR BODY AND ALWAYS STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

IF IN MOBILE HOMES OR VEHICLES...EVACUATE THEM AND GET INSIDE A
SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER. IF NO SHELTER IS AVAILABLE...LIE FLAT IN THE
NEAREST DITCH OR OTHER LOW SPOT AND COVER YOUR HEAD WITH YOUR HANDS.

LAT...LON 3276 9004 3289 8996 3294 9009 3296 9017
      3298 9017 3322 8955 3294 8932
TIME...MOT...LOC 1801Z 239DEG 43KT 3297 8987

$$

GARRETT

000 
WWUS54 KJAN 101809
SVSJAN

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1209 PM CST THU JAN 10 2008

MSC089-101819-
/O.CAN.KJAN.TO.W.0011.000000T0000Z-080110T1845Z/
MADISON MS-
1209 PM CST THU JAN 10 2008

...THE TORNADO WARNING FOR NORTHEASTERN MADISON COUNTY IS
CANCELLED...

LAT...LON 3294 8932 3289 8996 3296 8994 3309 8989
      3322 8955
TIME...MOT...LOC 1809Z 247DEG 34KT 3299 8979

$$

MSC007-051-079-101845-
/O.CON.KJAN.TO.W.0011.000000T0000Z-080110T1845Z/
LEAKE MS-HOLMES MS-ATTALA MS-
1209 PM CST THU JAN 10 2008

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1245 PM CST FOR
ATTALA...SOUTHEASTERN HOLMES AND NORTHWESTERN LEAKE COUNTIES...

AT 1209 PM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS WERE
TRACKING A TORNADO.  THIS TORNADO WAS LOCATED NEAR GOODMAN...OR ABOUT
7 MILES SOUTH OF DURANT...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 40 MPH.

THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR...
  SALLIS BY 1215 PM CST...
  MCADAMS BY 1220 PM CST...
  8 MILES SOUTHEAST OF HESTERVILLE BY 1225 PM CST...
  KOSCIUSKO BY 1230 PM CST...
  7 MILES NORTHWEST OF SMYRNA BY 1235 PM CST...
  ETHEL BY 1240 PM CST...

THIS IS AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS AND LIFE THREATENING SITUATION. THIS
STORM IS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING STRONG TO VIOLENT TORNADOES. IF YOU ARE
IN THE PATH OF THIS TORNADO...TAKE COVER IMMEDIATELY

THE SAFEST PLACE TO BE DURING A TORNADO IS IN A BASEMENT. GET UNDER A
WORKBENCH OR OTHER PIECE OF STURDY FURNITURE. IF NO BASEMENT IS
AVAILABLE...SEEK SHELTER ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF THE BUILDING IN AN
INTERIOR HALLWAY OR ROOM SUCH AS A CLOSET. USE BLANKETS OR PILLOWS TO
COVER YOUR BODY AND ALWAYS STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

IF IN MOBILE HOMES OR VEHICLES...EVACUATE THEM AND GET INSIDE A
SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER. IF NO SHELTER IS AVAILABLE...LIE FLAT IN THE
NEAREST DITCH OR OTHER LOW SPOT AND COVER YOUR HEAD WITH YOUR HANDS.

LAT...LON 3294 8932 3289 8996 3296 8994 3309 8989
      3322 8955
TIME...MOT...LOC 1809Z 247DEG 34KT 3299 8979

$$

GARRETT

000 
WWUS54 KJAN 101816 RRA
SVSJAN

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1217 PM CST THU JAN 10 2008

MSC051-079-101827-
/O.CAN.KJAN.TO.W.0011.000000T0000Z-080110T1845Z/
LEAKE MS-HOLMES MS-
1217 PM CST THU JAN 10 2008

...THE TORNADO WARNING FOR SOUTHEASTERN HOLMES AND NORTHWESTERN LEAKE
COUNTIES IS CANCELLED...

LAT...LON 3294 8932 3293 8982 3312 8981 3322 8955
TIME...MOT...LOC 1817Z 245DEG 44KT 3306 8967

$$

MSC007-101845-
/O.CON.KJAN.TO.W.0011.000000T0000Z-080110T1845Z/
ATTALA MS-
1217 PM CST THU JAN 10 2008

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1245 PM CST FOR ATTALA
COUNTY...

AT 1217 PM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS WERE
TRACKING A TORNADO.  THIS TORNADO WAS LOCATED NEAR MCADAMS...OR ABOUT
8 MILES WEST OF KOSCIUSKO...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 50 MPH.

THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR...
  9 MILES NORTHWEST OF SMYRNA BY 1225 PM CST...
  ETHEL BY 1230 PM CST...

THIS IS AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS AND LIFE THREATENING SITUATION. THIS
STORM IS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING STRONG TO VIOLENT TORNADOES. IF YOU ARE
IN THE PATH OF THIS TORNADO...TAKE COVER IMMEDIATELY

THE SAFEST PLACE TO BE DURING A TORNADO IS IN A BASEMENT. GET UNDER A
WORKBENCH OR OTHER PIECE OF STURDY FURNITURE. IF NO BASEMENT IS
AVAILABLE...SEEK SHELTER ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF THE BUILDING IN AN
INTERIOR HALLWAY OR ROOM SUCH AS A CLOSET. USE BLANKETS OR PILLOWS TO
COVER YOUR BODY AND ALWAYS STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

IF IN MOBILE HOMES OR VEHICLES...EVACUATE THEM AND GET INSIDE A
SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER. IF NO SHELTER IS AVAILABLE...LIE FLAT IN THE
NEAREST DITCH OR OTHER LOW SPOT AND COVER YOUR HEAD WITH YOUR HANDS.

LAT...LON 3294 8932 3293 8982 3312 8981 3322 8955
TIME...MOT...LOC 1817Z 245DEG 44KT 3306 8967

$$

GARRETT

000 
WWUS54 KJAN 101822
SVSJAN

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1222 PM CST THU JAN 10 2008

MSC007-101845-
/O.CON.KJAN.TO.W.0011.000000T0000Z-080110T1845Z/
ATTALA MS-
1222 PM CST THU JAN 10 2008

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1245 PM CST FOR ATTALA
COUNTY...

AT 1222 PM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS WERE
TRACKING A TORNADO.  THIS TORNADO WAS LOCATED NEAR MCADAMS...OR ABOUT
NEAR KOSCIUSKO...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 45 MPH.

THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR...
  ETHEL BY 1230 PM CST...

THIS IS AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS AND LIFE THREATENING SITUATION. THIS
STORM IS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING STRONG TO VIOLENT TORNADOES. IF YOU ARE
IN THE PATH OF THIS TORNADO...TAKE COVER IMMEDIATELY

THE SAFEST PLACE TO BE DURING A TORNADO IS IN A BASEMENT. GET UNDER A
WORKBENCH OR OTHER PIECE OF STURDY FURNITURE. IF NO BASEMENT IS
AVAILABLE...SEEK SHELTER ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF THE BUILDING IN AN
INTERIOR HALLWAY OR ROOM SUCH AS A CLOSET. USE BLANKETS OR PILLOWS TO
COVER YOUR BODY AND ALWAYS STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

IF IN MOBILE HOMES OR VEHICLES...EVACUATE THEM AND GET INSIDE A
SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER. IF NO SHELTER IS AVAILABLE...LIE FLAT IN THE
NEAREST DITCH OR OTHER LOW SPOT AND COVER YOUR HEAD WITH YOUR HANDS.

LAT...LON 3294 8932 3293 8982 3312 8981 3322 8955
TIME...MOT...LOC 1822Z 242DEG 43KT 3309 8962

$$

GARRETT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
758 AM CST THU JAN 10 2008

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED ZONES AND GRIDS CURRENTLY BEING SENT OUT FOR
TORNADO WATCH 16. THIS WATCH INCLUDES MOST OF OUR CWA TILL 4PM. /CAB/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...DID A QUICK UPDATE MAINLY TO ADJUST TEMPERATURES
ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA THIS MORNING. TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN RISING
VERY QUICKLY THIS MORNING...WITH THE TEMPERATURE AT KJAN AT 67
DEGREES AS OF 6 AM THIS MORNING. OTHER SITES AROUND THE AREA ARE ALL
ALREADY IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S THIS MORNING AS WELL. WENT AHEAD
AND ADJUSTED HIGH TEMPERATURES UP A FEW DEGREES AS A RESULT AND
ADJUSTED HOURLY TEMP GRIDS ACCORDINGLY. IN ADDITION...WENT AHEAD AND
BUMPED DEWPOINTS UP AS WELL ACROSS MOST OF THE CWFA...ESPECIALLY
SOUTH OF THE INTERSTATE 20 CORRIDOR. THESE VALUES ARE SEEING THE
LOWER 60S...WITH MIDDLE 60S IN THE SOUTHEAST ALREADY THIS
MORNING...AND ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE A TAD BIT MORE BEFORE THINGS
GET STARTED. THE SURFACE LOW IS NOW CENTERED OVER SOUTHEASTERN KS
WITH THE FRONT TRAILING SOUTH DOWN NEAR DALLAS. A FEW OF THE LATEST
MODELS ARE NOW SLOWING THIS SYSTEM A BIT FOR BRINGING IT ACROSS THE
AREA. THIS WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED. BY SLOWING THIS SYSTEM...THIS
COULD INCREASE THE RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER ACROSS THE CWFA...AS WELL
AS INCREASE THE RISK AREA FURTHER WEST. THIS TREND IS ALSO HINTED BY
RADAR TRENDS THIS MORNING AS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE
DEVELOPED A LITTLE FURTHER WEST THAN EXPECTED. THIS CHANGE WILL HAVE
TO BE MONITORED AS HAZARD PRODUCTS MAY NEED TO BE UPDATED.
OTHERWISE...DID NOT REALLY MAKE ANY OTHER CHANGES TO THE GOING
FORECAST AT THIS TIME. UPDATED PRODUCTS WILL BE SENT AND POSTED TO
THE WEB SHORTLY.

ISSUED AT 338 AM...
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...SHORT TERM(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY) AN ACTIVE DAY
IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE ARKLAMISS REGION TODAY. SURFACE ANALYSIS THIS
MORNING SHOWS THE SURFACE LOW CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN KS WITH THE
TRAILING COLD FRONT STRETCHING DOWN INTO NORTHERN TX. THE STALLED
BOUNDARY IS LOCATED JUST NORTH OF THE GULF COAST...AND IS GRADUALLY
SHIFTING NORTH AS A WARM FRONT THIS MORNING. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
SHOWS THE SHORTWAVE LOCATED OVER THE TX PANHANDLE AREA AND MOVING TO
THE EAST.

MODELS ARE COMING INTO DECENT AGREEMENT WITH THIS SYSTEM. AHEAD OF
THE APPROACHING SYSTEM THIS MORNING...THE AREA HAS BEGUN TO SEE A FEW
SHOWERS DEVELOP EARLY THIS MORNING...WHICH SHOULD INCREASE OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. CLOUD TOPS HAVE BEEN COOLING OVER WESTERN LA
AND AS AN UPPER DISTURBANCE MOVES IN. WITH MOISTURE INCREASING OVER
THE AREA...WILL PROBABLY START TO SEE DECENT DEVELOPMENT OVER THE
CWFA BEFORE DAYBREAK. MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE SHOWERS
EARLY...BUT WITH YESTERDAY EVENINGS 00Z JAN SOUNDING SHOWING STEEP
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES...CAN NOT RULE OUT STORMS BECOMING STRONG IF
THEY CAN GET THROUGH THE CAP...ESPECIALLY BY AROUND DAYBREAK. THE
MAIN THREAT WITH ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP IN THIS TIME PERIOD WILL BE
HAIL. ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA AHEAD OF THE
FRONT.

THE FRONT LOOKS AS IF IT SHOULD REACH THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER BY
AROUND MID MORNING TO LUNCHTIME TODAY.  IT SHOULD REACHING THE
NATCHEZ TRACE CORRIDOR BETWEEN 2-6PM AND LEAVE THE CWFA BY AROUND
MIDNIGHT.  THERE STILL APPEARS TO BE A DECENT RISK OF SEVERE STORM
DEVELOPMENT WITH THIS SYSTEM TODAY...ESPECIALLY FROM AROUND 10 AM TO
7 PM THIS EVENING. THE ENTIRE AREA WILL HAVE A SHOT AT SEEING STRONG
TO SEVERE STORMS.  HOWEVER...PLACES AROUND THE NATCHEZ TRACE
CORRIDOR AND SOUTHEAST OF THIS AREA WILL SEE THE BEST CHANCE FOR
SEVERE WEATHER.  THERE WILL BE DECENT SHEAR OVER THE AREA.  0-3 KM
HELICITY SHOULD BE BETWEEN 250-350 M2/S2. 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR
AVERAGES BETWEEN 40-50KTS...MAINLY OVER THE SOUTHEAST AND EAST
CENTRAL PART OF THE CWFA. 0-1 KM SHEAR LOOKS TO BE 30-35 KT.
MOISTURE HAS BEEN INCREASING OVER THE CWFA AT A DECENT RATE THIS
MORNING. HBG IS ALREADY SEEING DEW POINTS IN THE MIDDLE 60S...AND
JAN AND MEI ARE TOPPING 60F THIS MORNING. WITH THE WARM FRONT SLOWLY
DRIFTING NORTH THIS MORNING EXPECT MOISTURE TO CONTINUE TO INCREASE
OVER THE AREA. SO WITH MORE OF A MOISTURE INCREASE THAN WE HAVE SEEN
WITH PREVIOUS EVENTS...INSTABILITY SHOULD NOT BE A BIG PROBLEM WITH
MLCAPES AROUND 700-1000 J/KG. MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES SHOULD BE DECENT
AS WELL WITH 6-7 C/KM EXPECTED. ONE LIMITING FACTOR MAY BE MARGINAL
SURFACE PRESSURES...WHICH SHOULD BE BETWEEN 1008-1010MB DURING THE
EVENT. BUT WITH ALL OTHER FACTORS IN PLAY...DO NOT EXPECT IT TO
LIMIT ACTIVITY MUCH. EXPECT WITH THIS SYSTEM TO SEE ALL SEVERE
WEATHER MODES POSSIBLE...WITH INDIVIDUAL CELLS EXPECTED THROUGH MOST
OF THE EVENT AND THEN DEVELOPING INTO A LINE AS IT APPROACHES THE
EASTERN FRINGES OF THE AREA. EXPECT THE SEVERE WEATHER RISK TO BEGIN
TO DIE DOWN A COUPLE HOURS AFTER SUNSET AS THE SYSTEM MOVES TO THE
EAST.

ONE MORE THING TO MENTION FOR TODAY IS THAT WINDS WILL BE GUSTY WITH
THIS SYSTEM.  AT THIS TIME IT LOOKS AS IF THEY WILL FALL JUST SHY OF
LAKE WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA...SO WILL NOT BE ISSUING ANYTHING THIS
MORNING.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL QUICKLY BUILD IN BEHIND THIS SYSTEM AND BRING
COOLER AND DRIER TEMPERATURES TO THE AREA.  THIS SHOULD GIVE A
RATHER DRY FORECAST FOR BEYOND MIDNIGHT TONIGHT THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM.  MAV GUI THROUGH THE SHORT TERM GAVE
REASONABLE TEMPERATURES.  THE ONLY CHANGE WAS TO LOWER LOWS IN THE
EXTREME NORTHWEST FOR TONIGHT AS SKIES WILL BE CLEARING AND WINDS
WILL BE WEAKENING BY MORNING.  THIS WILL COMBINE WITH A COOLER
AIRMASS BEGINNING TO BE FILTERED INTO THE REGION.  OTHERWISE PRETTY
MUCH REMAINED WITH GUI TEMPS. /14/

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY) ANOTHER WEAK PACIFIC
SURFACE HIGH(1018MB) CROSSES THE CWFA FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY
MORNING BEFORE A DIGGING UPPER TROUGH IN THE OZARKS APPROACHES.
STRONGEST TROUGH APPEARS ON THE ECMWF WHICH TRIES TO SQUEEZE OUT A
FEW SPRINKLES/COLD LIGHT RAIN SATURDAY NIGHT WHEN TEMPS DIPPING TO
REACH THE MID-UPPER 30S. EXPECT MOST ELEVATED PRECIP WILL EVAPORATE
BEFORE REACHING THE SURFACE AS ALL LAYERS BELOW 850MB PROGGED TO BE
DRY AND REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING. WILL NEED TO KEEP A WATCH ON OUR NRN
PORTIONS FOR MODEL CHANGES. THEN MORE DRY AIR FOLLOWS ON SUNDAY AND
COMES WITH A MORE CONTINENTAL SURFACE HIGH(1026MB) AND THIS SHOULD
USHER IN A NEAR CLIMATOLOGY TEMPERATURE REGIME FOR THE FIRST HALF OF
NEXT WEEK(REINFORCED MONDAY NIGHT BY A QUICK MOVING DRY FRONT FROM
THE NRN PLAINS).

ALTHOUGH THERE IS PRETTY GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT ON A STRONGER COLD PUSH
OF POLAR AIR LATE NEXT WEEK...THE STRENGTH OF THE DELIVERY SYSTEM FOR
THE COLD AIR VARIES QUITE A BIT. THE ECMWF DEVELOPS A RATHER STRONG
SRN STREAM PIECE OF ENERGY TO DEEPEN A SHARP TROUGH MORE THAN THE
GFS AND ENSEMBLE MEANS WHICH DEPICT A MUCH BROADER/COLDER ERN CONUS
TROUGHING AXIS. ALL MODEL SOLUTIONS GENERALLY BRING THE DECENT RAIN
CHANCE/ISOLATED TSRA THROUGH THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT/EARLY
THURSDAY. WILL LEAN TOWARD THE ENSEMBLE MEAN PATTERN FOR BEYOND DAY
6 AND KEEP TEMPS/POPS CLOSER TO THE ENSEMBLE MOS MEANS WHICH AVERAGE
A FEW DEGREES BELOW THE OPERATIONAL GFS./40/

&&

.AVIATION...A STRONG STORM SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE
REGION TODAY. A DECENT MOISTURE INCREASE OVER THE AREA COMBINED WITH
DECENT WINDS HAVE ALLOWED FOR LOW LEVEL CLOUDS WITH CEILINGS BELOW
1000FT HAVE DEVELOPED.  THIS SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE EARLY
MORNING AND INTO THE MID MORNING.  SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
ALSO BEGIN TO DEVELOP OVER THE AREA WITHIN THE NEXT SEVERAL
HOURS...AND BECOME MORE NUMEROUS BY AROUND DAYBREAK OVER THE AREA.
CEILINGS WILL IMPROVE SLIGHTLY AFTER DAYBREAK...BUT SHOULD STILL
REMAIN IN THE MVFR TO PERIODS OF IFR CATEGORY RANGE.  A FEW SITES
MAY ALSO SEE PERIODS OF 3-5SM PATCHY FOG THROUGH AROUND DAYBREAK AS
WELL...BUT SHOULD NOT POSE A BIG PROBLEM.  THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY
SITES WILL HAVE THE POSSIBILITY OF SEEING PERIODS OF IFR TO LIFR
FROM HEAVY DOWNPOURS.  THIS WILL BE ESPECIALLY TRUE FOR SITES ALONG
AND SOUTHEAST OF THE NATCHEZ TRACE CORRIDOR.  CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN
TO IMPROVE THIS EVENING FROM THE NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST.  GLH AND
GWO WILL BEGIN TO SEE CEILINGS LIFT BETWEEN 6-9PM.  HBG...THE LAST
TO IMPROVE...SHOULD SEE CONDITIONS IMPROVE BY DAYBREAK FRIDAY. /14/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       75  39  56  34 /  99  48   4   2
MERIDIAN      75  41  59  32 / 100  79   4   3
VICKSBURG     72  40  56  36 /  72  32   4   2
HATTIESBURG   77  45  60  36 /  99  82   6   1
NATCHEZ       75  41  58  37 /  80  41   5   2
GREENVILLE    69  37  53  34 /  69  13   4   1
GREENWOOD     66  37  54  34 /  84  27   4   2

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

14

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
346 AM CST THU JAN 10 2008

ARZ074-075-LAZ007>009-015-016-023>026-MSZ018-019-025>066-072>074-
111000-
ASHLEY-CHICOT-MOREHOUSE-WEST CARROLL-EAST CARROLL-RICHLAND-
MADISON-FRANKLIN-CATAHOULA-TENSAS-CONCORDIA-BOLIVAR-SUNFLOWER-
LEFLORE-GRENADA-CARROLL-MONTGOMERY-WEBSTER-CLAY-LOWNDES-CHOCTAW-
OKTIBBEHA-WASHINGTON-HUMPHREYS-HOLMES-ATTALA-WINSTON-NOXUBEE-
ISSAQUENA-SHARKEY-YAZOO-LEAKE-NESHOBA-KEMPER-WARREN-HINDS-RANKIN-
SCOTT-NEWTON-LAUDERDALE-CLAIBORNE-COPIAH-SIMPSON-SMITH-JASPER-
CLARKE-JEFFERSON-ADAMS-LINCOLN-LAWRENCE-JEFFERSON DAVIS-COVINGTON-
JONES-MARION-LAMAR-FORREST-
346 AM CST THU JAN 10 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI...
NORTHEAST LOUISIANA...AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE REGION FROM EARLY
TO MID MORNING AS A STRONG STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES AND A WARM FRONT
LIFTS NORTH THROUGH THE REGION. A FEW STORMS MAY BE ABLE TO PRODUCE
SMALL HAIL. THE RISK FOR ANY SEVERE STORMS WILL REMAIN SOMEWHAT LOW
UNTIL AROUND DAYBREAK ALONG AND WEST OF A GRENADA TO VICKSBURG TO
NATCHEZ LINE WHEN LEVELS OF LIFT...INSTABILITY AND SHEAR SHOULD BEGIN
INCREASING DRAMATICALLY.

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AS A
STRONG UPPER DISTURBANCE AND COLD FRONT DEVELOP OVER THE PLAINS AND
SWING THROUGH THE REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MOIST AND
UNSTABLE AIR HAS BEGUN TO LIFT INTO THE AREA. AREAS ALONG AND EAST OF
A NATCHEZ TO GRENADA LINE WILL BE UNDER THE MAIN RISK...WITH
LOCATIONS ACROSS EAST CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI UNDER AN ENHANCED RISK FOR
SEEING SEVERE STORMS. THE MAIN TIME FRAME LOOKS TO BE BETWEEN 9 AM
AND 7 PM...WITH AREAS ACROSS THE EAST MOST PRONE TO SEVERE WEATHER
BETWEEN 1 PM AND 7 PM. DISCRETE SUPERCELL STORMS MAY BE POSSIBLE
DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE EVENT. ACTIVITY SHOULD BEGIN TO EVOLVE
INTO A LINE OF STORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS OVER AREAS EAST OF
THE NATCHEZ TRACE CORRIDOR.

IN ADDITION TO THE SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL...LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL
BE POSSIBLE AS STORMS MAY REPEATEDLY MOVE OVER THE SAME AREA. THIS
WILL MAINLY BE OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA WHERE 1 TO 2 INCHES
WITH LOCALIZED AREAS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES OF RAINFALL MAY BE SEEN.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
THE ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS...HAM RADIO OPERATORS...AND
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL IN SUPPORT OF SEVERE WEATHER
OPERATIONS WILL BE NEEDED TODAY. OTHERWISE...IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH
NEXT WEDNESDAY.

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE AT
WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/JAN. THIS INCLUDES THE GRAPHICAL HAZARDOUS
WEATHER OUTLOOK.

14

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
831 AM CST THU JAN 10 2008

LAZ008-009-MSZ034-040-041-101500-
WEST CARROLL LA-EAST CARROLL LA-WASHINGTON MS-SHARKEY MS-ISSAQUENA MS-
831 AM CST THU JAN 10 2008

A STRONG THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING VERY HEAVY RAIN WAS
LOCATED 7 MILES SOUTH OF OAK GROVE AT 831 AM CST...MOVING NORTHEAST
AT 65 MPH.

DANGEROUS CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS ALSO POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.
THIS STORMS IS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING PEA TO DIME SIZE HAIL AND 40 TO
50 MPH WINDS.

PEOPLE IN EAST CARROLL...ISSAQUENA...SHARKEY...WASHINGTON AND WEST
CARROLL PARISHES...INCLUDING THE CITY OF LAKE PROVIDENCE...SHOULD
MONITOR THIS STORM CLOSELY.

MRM

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
834 AM CST THU JAN 10 2008

ARZ074-075-LAZ007>009-015-016-023>026-MSZ018-019-025>066-072>074-
102000-
ADAMS-ASHLEY-ATTALA-BOLIVAR-CARROLL-CATAHOULA-CHICOT-CHOCTAW-
CLAIBORNE-CLARKE-CLAY-CONCORDIA-COPIAH-COVINGTON-EAST CARROLL-
FORREST-FRANKLIN LA-FRANKLIN MS-GRENADA-HINDS-HOLMES-HUMPHREYS-
ISSAQUENA-JASPER-JEFFERSON-JEFFERSON DAVIS-JONES-KEMPER-LAMAR-
LAUDERDALE-LAWRENCE-LEAKE-LEFLORE-LINCOLN-LOWNDES-MADISON LA-
MADISON MS-MARION-MONTGOMERY-MOREHOUSE-NESHOBA-NEWTON-NOXUBEE-
OKTIBBEHA-RANKIN-RICHLAND-SCOTT-SHARKEY-SIMPSON-SMITH-SUNFLOWER-
TENSAS-WARREN-WASHINGTON-WEBSTER-WEST CARROLL-WINSTON-YAZOO-
834 AM CST THU JAN 10 2008

...SEVERE WEATHER INCLUDING THE POSSIBILITY OF TORNADOES EXPECTED
ACROSS THE REGION TODAY...

A WARM FRONT WHICH HAS MOVED NORTH INTO THE ARKLAMISS REGION THIS
MORNING HAS ALLOWED FOR MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY TO INCREASE AHEAD
OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE
REGION...IT WILL BRING SEVERE WEATHER TO THE AREA FROM MID MORNING
THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. THE MAIN AREA OF CONCERN WILL BE AREAS
ALONG AND EAST OF A GRENADA TO VICKSBURG TO NATCHEZ LINE.  AN EVEN
GREATER RISK WILL EXIST OVER THE EAST CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI THIS
AFTERNOON. THE RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL INCREASE BY MID MORNING
AND LAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...MAINLY BETWEEN THE HOURS OF 10 AM
AND 7 PM.

AS THE FRONT APPROACHES...INDIVIDUAL CELLS WILL DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE
FRONT. THIS WILL POSE THE RISK FOR STRONG WINDS...HAIL...AND
TORNADOES FOR MID MORNING THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON. STORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO EVOLVE INTO A LINE OVER EASTERN MISSISSIPPI BY THE MID
TO LATE AFTERNOON.  THE PRIMARY RISK AT THIS POINT WILL BE DAMAGING
WINDS AND TORNADOES. THE RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER SHOULD BEGIN TO
DIMINISH BY THE LATE EVENING HOURS AS THE COLD FRONT SHIFTS TO THE
EAST OF THE AREA.

14

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1031 AM CST THU JAN 10 2008

MSZ019-025-101715-
SUNFLOWER MS-LEFLORE MS-
1031 AM CST THU JAN 10 2008

A STRONG THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING PEA TO DIME SIZE HAIL AND
40 TO 50 MPH WINDS WAS LOCATED 12 MILES WEST OF SUNFLOWER AT 1031 AM
CST...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 55 MPH.

THIS STORM IS INTENSIFYING AND COULD BECOME SEVERE RAPIDLY.

PEOPLE IN LEFLORE AND SUNFLOWER COUNTIES...INCLUDING THE CITY OF
RULEVILLE...SHOULD MONITOR THIS STORM CLOSELY.

BANNAN