Severe Thunderstorm Warning 31, NWS Jackson, MS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1200 PM CST THU JAN 10 2008

.DISCUSSION...RADAR LOOKING OMINOUS ACROSS THE ARKLAMISS AT THE NOON
HOUR WITH VIGOROUS FORCING IN AN UNSTABLE AND SHEARED ENVIRONMENT
RESULTING IN SEVERAL SUPERCELLS MARCHING ACROSS THE I-55 CORRIDOR.
THESE STORMS HAVE PLENTY OF POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE TORNADOES...LARGE
HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS AND PREVIOUS RADAR SIGNATURES OF ROTATION
HAVE BEEN STRONG ENOUGH TO INCREASE CONFIDENCE THAT AT LEAST A FEW
TORNADO TOUCHDOWNS HAVE ALREADY OCCURRED. PREDOMINANT SUPERCELL MODE
RIGHT NOW SHOULD PERSIST INTO THIS AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH CONVECTION
MAY TEND TO BECOME MORE LINEAR IN SEVERAL HOURS ACROSS AT LEAST
SOUTHEAST MS WHEN A HEAVY RAIN THREAT WILL ACCOMPANY THE SEVERE
THREAT. SPC HAS PLACED MOST OF EASTERN SECTIONS IN A MODERATE RISK
FOR THIS AFTERNOON WITH POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT TORNADOES BEING THE
PRIMARY RISK. THIS SEEMS ON THE MARK CONSIDERING CURRENT POTENT
STORMS ARE MOVING INTO AN ATMOSPHERE OVER EASTERN MS THAT CONTAINS
ENOUGH SHEAR AND INSTABILITY TO ENSURE STORMS AT LEAST MAINTAIN
THEIR VIGOR.

DID SOME TWEAKS TO ZONES AND GRIDS TO ACCOUNT FOR CURRENT TRENDS.
ALSO INCLUDED TOR WATCH 17 FOR EASTERN ZONES UNTIL 7 PM AND TOR
WATCH 16 CONTINUES UNTIL 4 PM FOR CENTRAL MS. WILL BE CUTTING
WESTERN EDGES OF TOR WATCH NUMBER 16 OFF AS THE THREAT PASSES TO THE
EAST THIS AFTERNOON. /BB/

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...DID A QUICK UPDATE MAINLY TO ADJUST
TEMPERATURES ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA THIS MORNING. TEMPERATURES HAVE
BEEN RISING VERY QUICKLY THIS MORNING...WITH THE TEMPERATURE AT KJAN
AT 67 DEGREES AS OF 6 AM THIS MORNING. OTHER SITES AROUND THE AREA
ARE ALL ALREADY IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S THIS MORNING AS WELL.
WENT AHEAD AND ADJUSTED HIGH TEMPERATURES UP A FEW DEGREES AS A
RESULT AND ADJUSTED HOURLY TEMP GRIDS ACCORDINGLY. IN
ADDITION...WENT AHEAD AND BUMPED DEWPOINTS UP AS WELL ACROSS MOST OF
THE CWFA...ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF THE INTERSTATE 20 CORRIDOR. THESE
VALUES ARE SEEING THE LOWER 60S...WITH MIDDLE 60S IN THE SOUTHEAST
ALREADY THIS MORNING...AND ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE A TAD BIT MORE
BEFORE THINGS GET STARTED. THE SURFACE LOW IS NOW CENTERED OVER
SOUTHEASTERN KS WITH THE FRONT TRAILING SOUTH DOWN NEAR DALLAS. A
FEW OF THE LATEST MODELS ARE NOW SLOWING THIS SYSTEM A BIT FOR
BRINGING IT ACROSS THE AREA. THIS WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED. BY
SLOWING THIS SYSTEM...THIS COULD INCREASE THE RISK FOR SEVERE
WEATHER ACROSS THE CWFA...AS WELL AS INCREASE THE RISK AREA FURTHER
WEST. THIS TREND IS ALSO HINTED BY RADAR TRENDS THIS MORNING AS
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED A LITTLE FURTHER WEST THAN
EXPECTED. THIS CHANGE WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED AS HAZARD PRODUCTS
MAY NEED TO BE UPDATED. OTHERWISE...DID NOT REALLY MAKE ANY OTHER
CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST AT THIS TIME. UPDATED PRODUCTS WILL BE
SENT AND POSTED TO THE WEB SHORTLY.

ISSUED AT 338 AM...
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...SHORT TERM(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY) AN ACTIVE DAY
IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE ARKLAMISS REGION TODAY. SURFACE ANALYSIS THIS
MORNING SHOWS THE SURFACE LOW CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN KS WITH THE
TRAILING COLD FRONT STRETCHING DOWN INTO NORTHERN TX. THE STALLED
BOUNDARY IS LOCATED JUST NORTH OF THE GULF COAST...AND IS GRADUALLY
SHIFTING NORTH AS A WARM FRONT THIS MORNING. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
SHOWS THE SHORTWAVE LOCATED OVER THE TX PANHANDLE AREA AND MOVING TO
THE EAST.

MODELS ARE COMING INTO DECENT AGREEMENT WITH THIS SYSTEM. AHEAD OF
THE APPROACHING SYSTEM THIS MORNING...THE AREA HAS BEGUN TO SEE A FEW
SHOWERS DEVELOP EARLY THIS MORNING...WHICH SHOULD INCREASE OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. CLOUD TOPS HAVE BEEN COOLING OVER WESTERN LA
AND AS AN UPPER DISTURBANCE MOVES IN. WITH MOISTURE INCREASING OVER
THE AREA...WILL PROBABLY START TO SEE DECENT DEVELOPMENT OVER THE
CWFA BEFORE DAYBREAK. MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE SHOWERS
EARLY...BUT WITH YESTERDAY EVENINGS 00Z JAN SOUNDING SHOWING STEEP
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES...CAN NOT RULE OUT STORMS BECOMING STRONG IF
THEY CAN GET THROUGH THE CAP...ESPECIALLY BY AROUND DAYBREAK. THE
MAIN THREAT WITH ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP IN THIS TIME PERIOD WILL BE
HAIL. ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA AHEAD OF THE
FRONT.

THE FRONT LOOKS AS IF IT SHOULD REACH THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER BY
AROUND MID MORNING TO LUNCHTIME TODAY.  IT SHOULD REACHING THE
NATCHEZ TRACE CORRIDOR BETWEEN 2-6PM AND LEAVE THE CWFA BY AROUND
MIDNIGHT.  THERE STILL APPEARS TO BE A DECENT RISK OF SEVERE STORM
DEVELOPMENT WITH THIS SYSTEM TODAY...ESPECIALLY FROM AROUND 10 AM TO
7 PM THIS EVENING. THE ENTIRE AREA WILL HAVE A SHOT AT SEEING STRONG
TO SEVERE STORMS.  HOWEVER...PLACES AROUND THE NATCHEZ TRACE
CORRIDOR AND SOUTHEAST OF THIS AREA WILL SEE THE BEST CHANCE FOR
SEVERE WEATHER.  THERE WILL BE DECENT SHEAR OVER THE AREA.  0-3 KM
HELICITY SHOULD BE BETWEEN 250-350 M2/S2. 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR
AVERAGES BETWEEN 40-50KTS...MAINLY OVER THE SOUTHEAST AND EAST
CENTRAL PART OF THE CWFA. 0-1 KM SHEAR LOOKS TO BE 30-35 KT.
MOISTURE HAS BEEN INCREASING OVER THE CWFA AT A DECENT RATE THIS
MORNING. HBG IS ALREADY SEEING DEW POINTS IN THE MIDDLE 60S...AND
JAN AND MEI ARE TOPPING 60F THIS MORNING. WITH THE WARM FRONT SLOWLY
DRIFTING NORTH THIS MORNING EXPECT MOISTURE TO CONTINUE TO INCREASE
OVER THE AREA. SO WITH MORE OF A MOISTURE INCREASE THAN WE HAVE SEEN
WITH PREVIOUS EVENTS...INSTABILITY SHOULD NOT BE A BIG PROBLEM WITH
MLCAPES AROUND 700-1000 J/KG. MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES SHOULD BE DECENT
AS WELL WITH 6-7 C/KM EXPECTED. ONE LIMITING FACTOR MAY BE MARGINAL
SURFACE PRESSURES...WHICH SHOULD BE BETWEEN 1008-1010MB DURING THE
EVENT. BUT WITH ALL OTHER FACTORS IN PLAY...DO NOT EXPECT IT TO
LIMIT ACTIVITY MUCH. EXPECT WITH THIS SYSTEM TO SEE ALL SEVERE
WEATHER MODES POSSIBLE...WITH INDIVIDUAL CELLS EXPECTED THROUGH MOST
OF THE EVENT AND THEN DEVELOPING INTO A LINE AS IT APPROACHES THE
EASTERN FRINGES OF THE AREA. EXPECT THE SEVERE WEATHER RISK TO BEGIN
TO DIE DOWN A COUPLE HOURS AFTER SUNSET AS THE SYSTEM MOVES TO THE
EAST.

ONE MORE THING TO MENTION FOR TODAY IS THAT WINDS WILL BE GUSTY WITH
THIS SYSTEM.  AT THIS TIME IT LOOKS AS IF THEY WILL FALL JUST SHY OF
LAKE WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA...SO WILL NOT BE ISSUING ANYTHING THIS
MORNING.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL QUICKLY BUILD IN BEHIND THIS SYSTEM AND BRING
COOLER AND DRIER TEMPERATURES TO THE AREA.  THIS SHOULD GIVE A
RATHER DRY FORECAST FOR BEYOND MIDNIGHT TONIGHT THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM.  MAV GUI THROUGH THE SHORT TERM GAVE
REASONABLE TEMPERATURES.  THE ONLY CHANGE WAS TO LOWER LOWS IN THE
EXTREME NORTHWEST FOR TONIGHT AS SKIES WILL BE CLEARING AND WINDS
WILL BE WEAKENING BY MORNING.  THIS WILL COMBINE WITH A COOLER
AIRMASS BEGINNING TO BE FILTERED INTO THE REGION.  OTHERWISE PRETTY
MUCH REMAINED WITH GUI TEMPS. /14/

&&

.AVIATION...
MVFR FLIGHT CATS DUE TO CLOUD COVER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON IN MOST AREAS AS A STRONG SYSTEM PASSES THROUGH. MAIN
RISKS TO AVIATION WILL BE STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THAT COULD
PRODUCE HIGH WINDS...DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL. EXPECT WIND TO SHIFT
TO THE WEST FROM WEST TO EAST LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING
AS A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH. FAIR WEATHER ANTICIPATED FOR
TOMORROW. /BB/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       75  39  56  34 /  90  48   4   2
MERIDIAN      75  41  59  32 /  99  79   4   3
VICKSBURG     72  40  56  36 /  80  32   4   2
HATTIESBURG   77  45  60  36 /  96  82   6   1
NATCHEZ       75  41  58  37 /  85  41   5   2
GREENVILLE    69  37  53  34 /  75  13   4   1
GREENWOOD     66  37  54  34 /  73  27   4   2

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

50

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
346 AM CST THU JAN 10 2008

ARZ074-075-LAZ007>009-015-016-023>026-MSZ018-019-025>066-072>074-
111000-
ASHLEY-CHICOT-MOREHOUSE-WEST CARROLL-EAST CARROLL-RICHLAND-
MADISON-FRANKLIN-CATAHOULA-TENSAS-CONCORDIA-BOLIVAR-SUNFLOWER-
LEFLORE-GRENADA-CARROLL-MONTGOMERY-WEBSTER-CLAY-LOWNDES-CHOCTAW-
OKTIBBEHA-WASHINGTON-HUMPHREYS-HOLMES-ATTALA-WINSTON-NOXUBEE-
ISSAQUENA-SHARKEY-YAZOO-LEAKE-NESHOBA-KEMPER-WARREN-HINDS-RANKIN-
SCOTT-NEWTON-LAUDERDALE-CLAIBORNE-COPIAH-SIMPSON-SMITH-JASPER-
CLARKE-JEFFERSON-ADAMS-LINCOLN-LAWRENCE-JEFFERSON DAVIS-COVINGTON-
JONES-MARION-LAMAR-FORREST-
346 AM CST THU JAN 10 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI...
NORTHEAST LOUISIANA...AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE REGION FROM EARLY
TO MID MORNING AS A STRONG STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES AND A WARM FRONT
LIFTS NORTH THROUGH THE REGION. A FEW STORMS MAY BE ABLE TO PRODUCE
SMALL HAIL. THE RISK FOR ANY SEVERE STORMS WILL REMAIN SOMEWHAT LOW
UNTIL AROUND DAYBREAK ALONG AND WEST OF A GRENADA TO VICKSBURG TO
NATCHEZ LINE WHEN LEVELS OF LIFT...INSTABILITY AND SHEAR SHOULD BEGIN
INCREASING DRAMATICALLY.

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AS A
STRONG UPPER DISTURBANCE AND COLD FRONT DEVELOP OVER THE PLAINS AND
SWING THROUGH THE REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MOIST AND
UNSTABLE AIR HAS BEGUN TO LIFT INTO THE AREA. AREAS ALONG AND EAST OF
A NATCHEZ TO GRENADA LINE WILL BE UNDER THE MAIN RISK...WITH
LOCATIONS ACROSS EAST CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI UNDER AN ENHANCED RISK FOR
SEEING SEVERE STORMS. THE MAIN TIME FRAME LOOKS TO BE BETWEEN 9 AM
AND 7 PM...WITH AREAS ACROSS THE EAST MOST PRONE TO SEVERE WEATHER
BETWEEN 1 PM AND 7 PM. DISCRETE SUPERCELL STORMS MAY BE POSSIBLE
DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE EVENT. ACTIVITY SHOULD BEGIN TO EVOLVE
INTO A LINE OF STORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS OVER AREAS EAST OF
THE NATCHEZ TRACE CORRIDOR.

IN ADDITION TO THE SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL...LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL
BE POSSIBLE AS STORMS MAY REPEATEDLY MOVE OVER THE SAME AREA. THIS
WILL MAINLY BE OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA WHERE 1 TO 2 INCHES
WITH LOCALIZED AREAS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES OF RAINFALL MAY BE SEEN.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
THE ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS...HAM RADIO OPERATORS...AND
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL IN SUPPORT OF SEVERE WEATHER
OPERATIONS WILL BE NEEDED TODAY. OTHERWISE...IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH
NEXT WEDNESDAY.

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE AT
WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/JAN. THIS INCLUDES THE GRAPHICAL HAZARDOUS
WEATHER OUTLOOK.

14

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1223 PM CST THU JAN 10 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1222 PM     HAIL             2 W MADISON             32.45N 90.14W
01/10/2008  E1.00 INCH       MADISON            MS   EMERGENCY MNGR

            QUARTER SIZE HAIL REPORTED.

&&

JCULIN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1227 PM CST THU JAN 10 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1225 PM     HAIL             1 W MADISON             32.45N 90.13W
01/10/2008  E1.75 INCH       MADISON            MS   EMERGENCY MNGR

            ON HWY 51.

&&

JCULIN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1228 PM CST THU JAN 10 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1227 PM     HAIL             RIDGELAND               32.42N 90.13W
01/10/2008  E2.75 INCH       MADISON            MS   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            AT THE TRACE.

&&

JCULIN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1235 PM CST THU JAN 10 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1232 PM     TSTM WND GST     5 NE KOSCIUSKO          33.11N 89.53W
01/10/2008  E70 MPH          ATTALA             MS   EMERGENCY MNGR

&&

JCULIN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1244 PM CST THU JAN 10 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1240 PM     HAIL             GOSHEN SPRINGS          32.47N 89.92W
01/10/2008  E1.00 INCH       RANKIN             MS   PARK/FOREST SRVC

            AT HWY 43 AND THE RESERVOIR.

&&

JCULIN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1249 PM CST THU JAN 10 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1244 PM     TSTM WND DMG     MCCOOL                  33.20N 89.34W
01/10/2008                   ATTALA             MS   EMERGENCY MNGR

            STRUCTURAL DAMAGE AROUND MCCOOL, POSSIBLE TORNADO.

&&

JCULIN