Severe Thunderstorm Warning 17, NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
506 PM EST TUE MAR 4 2008

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST AS A STRONG COLD
FRONT MOVES TOWARDS THE EAST COAST TONIGHT. ANOTHER...YET WEAKER
COLD FRONT IS THEN EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE WESTERN CAROLINAS
THURSDAY EVENING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
QUICK UPDATE TO GRIDS...MAINLY ADDING MENTION OF POSSIBLE TORNADOES
IN NEW WATCH AREA (ALL COUNTIES EAST OF PREVIOUS WATCH).
ALSO...IVE CANCELED GRAHAM/SWAIN/MACON/RABUN/HABERSHAM COUNTIES
SINCE THEY ARE BEHIND THE SQUALL LINE. OTHERWISE...EVERYTHING ON TRACK.

IN THE NEAR TERM...FOCUS IS ON COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED SQUALL LINE
THAT IS CROSSING THE FORECAST AREA. SQUALL LINE WILL SWEEP ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING PRODUCING A
CONTINUING THREAT OF DAMAGING WINDS AND ISOLATED TORNADOES. CURRENT
MOVEMENT OF COLD FRONT APPEARS TO BE MORE IN LINE WITH FASTER GFS
WHICH MEANS THAT SQUALL LINE SHOULD CLEAR EASTERN AREAS OF THE
FORECAST AREA/NC PIEDMONT AROUND 01Z. SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL HAS
OCCURRED TODAY WITH SOME AREAS IN THE FAVORED UPSLOPE AREAS IN
EXCESS OF 5 INCHES WHICH PRODUCED SOME ISOLATED FLOODING. HEAVIEST
RAIN NOW ADVECTING NE OUT OF THE AREA AND ADDITIONAL FLOODING LIKELY
TO REMAIN OF THE ISOLATED VARIETY...SO NO FLOOD WATCH. EXPECT FAIRLY
RAPID CLEARING BEHIND THE FRONT OUTSIDE OF THE MOUNTAINS. A BRIEF
PERIOD OF UPSLOPE PRECIP POSSIBLE ALONG THE WESTERN FACING MOUNTAIN
SLOPES ADJACENT TO TN...BUT AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT. PRECIP TYPE WILL
BE MOSTLY LIQUID...WITH A RAIN/SNOW MIX ABOVE 3000 FT DEVELOPING.
USED A BLEND OF MOS GUIDANCE FOR MIN TEMPS AND 3 HOURLY GMOS FOR
TEMP TREND OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 250 PM...SHORT TERM WILL START RATHER TRANQUIL AS FLAT UPPER
RIDGE AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ARE FORECAST TO DOMINATE THE WEATHER
OVER THE REGION THROUGH THU. UPSLOPE PRECIP SHOULD ESSENTIALLY BE
OVER WITH BY 12Z WED IN THE MOUNTAINS. THEREFORE...EXPECT GENERALLY
CLEAR CONDITIONS WED INTO THU WITH TEMPERATURES ACTUALLY ABOVE
SEASONAL VALUES. USED A MOS BLEND FOR TEMPERATURE FIELDS.

EXPECT SOME CHANGES TO OCCUR LATE IN THE WEEK AS LONG WAVE TROUGH TO
THE WEST DEEPENS WHICH PRODUCES CYCLOGENESIS IN THE NORTHERN GULF.
THIS LOW IS THEN FORECAST TO MOVE NE AND INTO THE CENTRAL CAROLINAS
BY LATE FRI. THEREFORE...CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE THU NIGHT
WITH SOME LIGHT PRECIP POSSIBLE OVER WESTERN AREAS BY FRI MORNING.
HAVE GONE AHEAD AND INCREASED POPS INTO THE LIKELY RANGE FOR FRI.
WITH SW FLOW ALOFT...IT LOOKS LIKE TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WARM
ENOUGH THROUGH FRI SO THAT ALL PRECIP WILL BE LIQUID FOR THIS TIME
FRAME. STAYED CLOSE TO GMOS FIELDS FOR SENSIBLE WEATHER THU NIGHT
AND FRI.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AT 330 PM..A MODIFIED GFS SOLUTION WAS USED FOR THE EXTENDED PORTION
OF THE FORECAST.  ACTUALLY THERE WAS LITTLE CHANGE WITH WRAPAROUND
MOISTURE OFF LOW IN ATLC WILL GIVE US A NORTHWEST FLOW SNOW EVENT AT
THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEKEND.  HIGH PRESSURE SETS UP  UNTIL APPROACH
OF NEXT SYSTEM THAT DOES NOT QUITE GET INTO AREA BY WEDNESDAY
MORNING.  NO MAJOR MODIFICATIONS IN TEMP FORECAST NECESSARY.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
CRITICAL NEAR TERM WX FOR THE 18 UTC TAF PERIOD WILL ENCOMPASS
TIMING OF CONVECTIVE RAINFALL AND ACCOMPANYING CIG/VSBY CHANGES
ALONG WITH TIMING OF A WIND SHIFT DURING THE EARLY TO MID-EVENING
HOURS. HAVE ATTEMPTED TO TIME WIDESPREAD HEAVY CONVECTIVE RAINFALL
BAND EASTWARD ACRS THE FA THRU MID/LATE AFTERNOON FOLLOWED BY A
SEPARATE DISCRETE THUNDERSTORM POSSIBILITIES LATER THIS
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING CLOSER TO ACTUAL COLD FRONT. GUSTY SOUTHERLY
WINDS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE WITHIN WARM-SECTOR WITH A VEER TO SW THIS
EVENING AND CONTINUED GUSTY BEFORE DIMINISHING OVERNIGHT AS A MORE
WESTERLY COMPONENT DEVELOPS.

OUTLOOK...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY. ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM MAY BRUSH THE AREA ON FRIDAY...
BRINGING A CHANCE OF CIG RESTRICTIONS AND PERHAPS PRECIPITATION.

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR GAZ010-017-
     018-026-028-029.
NC...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR NCZ033-
     035>037-048>053-056>059-062>065-068>072-082-501>510.
SC...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR SCZ001>014-
     019.

&&

SYNOPSIS...PAT
NEAR TERM...ARK/LG
SHORT TERM...LG/RB
LONG TERM...VAD
AVIATION...CSH

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1130 AM EST TUE MAR 4 2008

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ033-035>037-048>053-056>059-062>065-
068>072-082-501>510-SCZ001>014-019-051630-
RABUN-HABERSHAM-STEPHENS-FRANKLIN-HART-ELBERT-AVERY-ALEXANDER-
IREDELL-DAVIE-MADISON-YANCEY-MITCHELL-SWAIN-HAYWOOD-BUNCOMBE-CATAWBA-
ROWAN-GRAHAM-NORTHERN JACKSON-MACON-SOUTHERN JACKSON-TRANSYLVANIA-
HENDERSON-CLEVELAND-LINCOLN-GASTON-MECKLENBURG-CABARRUS-UNION NC-
CALDWELL MOUNTAINS-GREATER CALDWELL-BURKE MOUNTAINS-GREATER BURKE-
MCDOWELL MOUNTAINS-EASTERN MCDOWELL-RUTHERFORD MOUNTAINS-
GREATER RUTHERFORD-POLK MOUNTAINS-EASTERN POLK-OCONEE MOUNTAINS-
PICKENS MOUNTAINS-GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS-GREATER OCONEE-
GREATER PICKENS-GREATER GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG-CHEROKEE-YORK-
ANDERSON-ABBEVILLE-LAURENS-UNION SC-CHESTER-GREENWOOD-
1130 AM EST TUE MAR 4 2008

...LAKE WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM EST THIS EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST GEORGIA...PIEDMONT
NORTH CAROLINA...WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   LAKE WIND ADVISORY.

A LARGE SWATH OF HEAVY RAIN WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE TO SPREAD EAST ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON LEADING
TO ISOLATED RUNOFF PROBLEMS AND HIGH WATER AREAS.

AS THE AFTERNOON WEARS ON...THE APPROACH OF AN UPPER LEVEL AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE AND IT/S ASSOCIATED DRIER AIR ALOFT...IS EXPECTED TO
TRANSITION THE WIDESPREAD RAIN TO MORE ROBUST AND DISCRETE
THUNDERSTORMS. DESPITE LIMITED INSTABILITY TODAY...AN UNSEASONABLY
MILD AND HUMID AIRMASS WILL COMBINE WITH STRONG WIND FIELDS TO
GIVE RISE TO THE PROBABILITY THAT DAMAGING WINDS WILL ACCOMPANY
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON. THE WIND SHEAR THROUGHOUT THE LOWER
AND MIDDLE ATMOSPHERE IS STRONG ENOUGH TO SUPPORT TORNADO
FORMATION AS WELL...WITH A STRONG TORNADO NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION
INTO EARLY EVENING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
437 PM EST TUE MAR 4 2008

NCZ082-SCZ009-014-042230-
CHESTER-UNION-YORK-
437 PM EST TUE MAR 4 2008

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT EASTERN CHESTER...SOUTHEASTERN
YORK AND UNION COUNTIES THROUGH 530 PM EST...

AT 437 PM EST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR FORT LAWN...OR 7 MILES WEST OF LANCASTER...
MOVING NORTHEAST AT 50 MPH.

THIS STORM WILL BE NEAR...
  WAXHAW BY 450 PM EST.
  MINERAL SPRINGS BY 455 PM EST.
  MONROE BY 505 PM EST.
  UNIONVILLE BY 510 PM EST.
  6 MILES SOUTHEAST OF FAIRVIEW BY 515 PM EST.

SMALL HAIL...AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS
STORM.

HG

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
519 PM EST TUE MAR 04 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0436 PM     TSTM WND DMG     CARNESVILLE             34.37N 83.23W
03/04/2008                   FRANKLIN           GA   COUNTY OFFICIAL

            A ROOF WAS BLOWN OFF A HOUSE IN CARNESVILLE

&&

LGABRIC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
521 PM EST TUE MAR 04 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0504 PM     TSTM WND DMG     BREVARD                 35.24N 82.73W
03/04/2008                   TRANSYLVANIA       NC   COUNTY OFFICIAL

            POWER LINES DOWN IN BREVARD

&&

LGABRIC

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
550 PM EST TUE MAR 04 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0505 PM     TSTM WND DMG     5 E FAIR PLAY           34.51N 82.90W
03/04/2008                   ANDERSON           SC   COUNTY OFFICIAL

            1 TREE DOWN.

0530 PM     TSTM WND DMG     ANDERSON                34.52N 82.65W
03/04/2008                   ANDERSON           SC   COUNTY OFFICIAL

            1 TREE DOWN

0523 PM     TSTM WND DMG     HENDERSONVILLE          35.32N 82.46W
03/04/2008                   HENDERSON          NC   COUNTY OFFICIAL

            ONE TREE DOWN.

0548 PM     HAIL             TIGERVILLE              35.07N 82.37W
03/04/2008  E0.75 INCH       GREENVILLE         SC   NWS EMPLOYEE

0548 PM     TSTM WND GST     TIGERVILLE              35.07N 82.37W
03/04/2008  E60 MPH          GREENVILLE         SC   NWS EMPLOYEE

&&

LGABRIC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
608 PM EST TUE MAR 04 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0550 PM     TSTM WND DMG     ELBERTON                34.11N 82.86W
03/04/2008                   ELBERT             GA   COUNTY OFFICIAL

            NUMEROUS TREES DWON AROUND ELBERTON

&&

LG