Severe Thunderstorm Warning 10, NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
332 PM EST TUE MAR 4 2008

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST AS A STRONG COLD
FRONT MOVES TOWARDS THE EAST COAST TONIGHT. ANOTHER...YET WEAKER
COLD FRONT IS THEN EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE WESTERN CAROLINAS
THURSDAY EVENING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
IN THE NEAR TERM...FOCUS IS ON COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED SQUALL LINE
THAT IS CROSSING THE FORECAST AREA. SQUALL LINE WILL SWEEP ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING PRODUCING A
CONTINUING THREAT OF DAMAGING WINDS AND ISOLATED TORNADOES. CURRENT
MOVEMENT OF COLD FRONT APPEARS TO BE MORE IN LINE WITH FASTER GFS
WHICH MEANS THAT SQUALL LINE SHOULD CLEAR EASTERN AREAS OF THE
FORECAST AREA/NC PIEDMONT AROUND 01Z. SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL HAS
OCCURRED TODAY WITH SOME AREAS IN THE FAVORED UPSLOPE AREAS IN
EXCESS OF 5 INCHES WHICH PRODCUED SOME ISOLATED FLOODING. HEAVIEST
RAIN NOW ADVECTING NE OUT OF THE AREA AND ADDITIONAL FLOODING LIKELY
TO REMAIN OF THE ISOLATED VARIETY...SO NO FLOOD WATCH. EXPECT FAIRLY
RAPID CLEARING BEHIND THE FRONT OUTSIDE OF THE MOUNTAINS. A BRIEF
PERIOD OF UPSLOPE PRECIP POSSIBLE ALONG THE WESTERN FACING MOUNTAIN
SLOPES ADJACENT TO TN...BUT AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT. PRECIP TYPE WILL
BE MOSTLY LIQUID...WITH A RAIN/SNOW MIX ABOVE 3000 FT DEVELOPING.
USED A BLEND OF MOS GUIDANCE FOR MIN TEMPS AND 3 HOURLY GMOS FOR
TEMP TREND OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 250 PM...SHORT TERM WILL START RATHER TRANQUIL AS FLAT UPPER
RIDGE AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ARE FORECAST TO DOMINATE THE WEATHER
OVER THE REGION THROUGH THU. UPSLOPE PRECIP SHOULD ESSENTIALLY BE
OVER WITH BY 12Z WED IN THE MOUNTAINS. THEREFORE...EXPECT GENERALLY
CLEAR CONDITIONS WED INTO THU WITH TEMPERATURES ACTUALLY ABOVE
SEASONAL VALUES. USED A MOS BLEND FOR TEMPERATURE FIELDS.

EXPECT SOME CHANGES TO OCCUR LATE IN THE WEEK AS LONG WAVE TROUGH TO
THE WEST DEEPENS WHICH PRODUCES CYCLOGENESIS IN THE NORTHERN GULF.
THIS LOW IS THEN FORECAST TO MOVE NE AND INTO THE CENTRAL CAROLINAS
BY LATE FRI. THEREFORE...CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE THU NIGHT
WITH SOME LIGHT PRECIP POSSIBLE OVER WESTERN AREAS BY FRI MORNING.
HAVE GONE AHEAD AND INCREASED POPS INTO THE LIKELY RANGE FOR FRI.
WITH SW FLOW ALOFT...IT LOOKS LIKE TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WARM
ENOUGH THROUGH FRI SO THAT ALL PRECIP WILL BE LIQUID FOR THIS TIME
FRAME. STAYED CLOSE TO GMOS FIELDS FOR SENSIBLE WEATHER THU NIGHT
AND FRI.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AT 330 PM..A MODIFIED GFS SOLUTION WAS USED FOR THE EXTENDED PORTION
OF THE FORECAST.  ACTUALLY THERE WAS LITTLE CHANGE WITH WRAPAROUND
MOISTURE OFF LOW IN ATLC WILL GIVE US A NORTHWEST FLOW SNOW EVENT AT
THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEKEND.  HIGH PRESSURE SETS UP  UNTIL APPROACH
OF NEXT SYSTEM THAT DOES NOT QUITE GET INTO AREA BY LATE TUE. NO
MAJOR MODIFICATIONS IN TEMP FORECAST NECESSARY.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
CRITICAL NEAR TERM WX FOR THE 18 UTC TAF PERIOD WILL ENCOMPASS
TIMING OF CONVECTIVE RAINFALL AND ACCOMPANYING CIG/VSBY CHANGES
ALONG WITH TIMING OF A WIND SHIFT DURING THE EARLY TO MID-EVENING
HOURS. HAVE ATTEMPTED TO TIME WIDESPREAD HEAVY CONVECTIVE RAINFALL
BAND EASTWARD ACRS THE FA THRU MID/LATE AFTERNOON FOLLOWED BY A
SEPARATE DISCRETE THUNDERSTORM POSSIBILITIES LATER THIS
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING CLOSER TO ACTUAL COLD FRONT. GUSTY SOUTHERLY
WINDS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE WITHIN WARM-SECTOR WITH A VEER TO SW THIS
EVENING AND CONTINUED GUSTY BEFORE DIMINISHING OVERNIGHT AS A MORE
WESTERLY COMPONENT DEVELOPS.

OUTLOOK...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY. ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM MAY BRUSH THE AREA ON FRIDAY...
BRINGING A CHANCE OF CIG RESTRICTIONS AND PERHAPS PRECIPITATION.

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR GAZ010-017-
     018-026-028-029.
NC...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR NCZ033-
     035>037-048>053-056>059-062>065-068>072-082-501>510.
SC...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR SCZ001>014-
     019.

&&

SYNOPSIS...PAT
NEAR TERM...LG
SHORT TERM...LG/RB
LONG TERM...VAD
AVIATION...CSH

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1130 AM EST TUE MAR 4 2008

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ033-035>037-048>053-056>059-062>065-
068>072-082-501>510-SCZ001>014-019-051630-
RABUN-HABERSHAM-STEPHENS-FRANKLIN-HART-ELBERT-AVERY-ALEXANDER-
IREDELL-DAVIE-MADISON-YANCEY-MITCHELL-SWAIN-HAYWOOD-BUNCOMBE-CATAWBA-
ROWAN-GRAHAM-NORTHERN JACKSON-MACON-SOUTHERN JACKSON-TRANSYLVANIA-
HENDERSON-CLEVELAND-LINCOLN-GASTON-MECKLENBURG-CABARRUS-UNION NC-
CALDWELL MOUNTAINS-GREATER CALDWELL-BURKE MOUNTAINS-GREATER BURKE-
MCDOWELL MOUNTAINS-EASTERN MCDOWELL-RUTHERFORD MOUNTAINS-
GREATER RUTHERFORD-POLK MOUNTAINS-EASTERN POLK-OCONEE MOUNTAINS-
PICKENS MOUNTAINS-GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS-GREATER OCONEE-
GREATER PICKENS-GREATER GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG-CHEROKEE-YORK-
ANDERSON-ABBEVILLE-LAURENS-UNION SC-CHESTER-GREENWOOD-
1130 AM EST TUE MAR 4 2008

...LAKE WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM EST THIS EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST GEORGIA...PIEDMONT
NORTH CAROLINA...WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   LAKE WIND ADVISORY.

A LARGE SWATH OF HEAVY RAIN WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE TO SPREAD EAST ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON LEADING
TO ISOLATED RUNOFF PROBLEMS AND HIGH WATER AREAS.

AS THE AFTERNOON WEARS ON...THE APPROACH OF AN UPPER LEVEL AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE AND IT/S ASSOCIATED DRIER AIR ALOFT...IS EXPECTED TO
TRANSITION THE WIDESPREAD RAIN TO MORE ROBUST AND DISCRETE
THUNDERSTORMS. DESPITE LIMITED INSTABILITY TODAY...AN UNSEASONABLY
MILD AND HUMID AIRMASS WILL COMBINE WITH STRONG WIND FIELDS TO
GIVE RISE TO THE PROBABILITY THAT DAMAGING WINDS WILL ACCOMPANY
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON. THE WIND SHEAR THROUGHOUT THE LOWER
AND MIDDLE ATMOSPHERE IS STRONG ENOUGH TO SUPPORT TORNADO
FORMATION AS WELL...WITH A STRONG TORNADO NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION
INTO EARLY EVENING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1255 PM EST TUE MAR 4 2008

NCZ507-508-041845-
GREATER RUTHERFORD-RUTHERFORD MOUNTAINS-
1255 PM EST TUE MAR 4 2008

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT RUTHERFORD COUNTY THROUGH 145 PM
EST...

AT 1255 PM EST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 3 MILES NORTHEAST OF
LAKE ADGER TO 4 MILES NORTHEAST OF LANDRUM TO 7 MILES SOUTH OF
LANDRUM...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 40 MPH.

THESE STORMS WILL BE NEAR...
  THERMAL CITY BY 115 PM EST.
  SPINDALE BY 125 PM EST.
  BOSTIC BY 130 PM EST.

WIND GUSTS OF 40 TO 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THESE STORMS.

HG

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
135 PM EST TUE MAR 4 2008

NCZ504-506-508-041900-
EASTERN MCDOWELL-GREATER BURKE-GREATER RUTHERFORD-
135 PM EST TUE MAR 4 2008

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTHERN RUTHERFORD...
SOUTHEASTERN MCDOWELL AND SOUTHWESTERN BURKE COUNTIES THROUGH 200 PM
EST...

AT 135 PM EST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 4 MILES SOUTH OF THERMAL CITY...OR 7 MILES NORTH
OF RUTHERFORDTON...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 30 MPH.

THIS STORM WILL BE NEAR...
  5 MILES SOUTHEAST OF GLENWOOD BY 145 PM EST.
  DYSARTSVILLE BY 150 PM EST.

WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

HG

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
140 PM EST TUE MAR 4 2008

GAZ010-NCZ051-058-059-062-041945-
GRAHAM-MACON-NORTHERN JACKSON-RABUN-SWAIN-
140 PM EST TUE MAR 4 2008

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT GRAHAM...MACON...NORTHERN
RABUN...JACKSON AND SWAIN COUNTIES BY 3 PM EST...

A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS MOVING ACROSS EASTERN TENNESSEE WILL
REACH THE SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS OF NORTH CAROLINA BETWEEN 230 AND 3 PM
THIS AFTERNOON. THESE THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY PRODUCE WIND GUSTS
OF 40 TO 50 MPH IN LOCATIONS IN THE SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS...INCLUDING
TAPOCO...SANTEETLAH LAKE...AND ROBBINSVILLE. WARNINGS COULD ALSO BE
NEEDED IF THE LINE MAINTAINS ITS STRENGTH.

HG

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
230 PM EST TUE MAR 4 2008

NCZ069>071-SCZ009-042000-
GASTON-LINCOLN-MECKLENBURG-YORK-
230 PM EST TUE MAR 4 2008

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT GASTON...NORTHERN YORK...
NORTHWESTERN MECKLENBURG AND SOUTHEASTERN LINCOLN COUNTIES THROUGH
300 PM EST...

AT 230 PM EST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 5 MILES SOUTHWEST OF CLOVER...OR 5 MILES
NORTHWEST OF YORK...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 45 MPH.

PEOPLE IN GASTON...NORTHERN YORK...NORTHWESTERN MECKLENBURG AND
SOUTHEASTERN LINCOLN COUNTIES...INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS...

CLOVER...GASTONIA...CRAMERTON...LOWELL...BELMONT...MOUNT HOLLY...PAW
CREEK AND MOUNTAIN ISLAND LAKE...

SHOULD MONITOR THE WEATHER SITUATION CLOSELY. LISTEN FOR POSSIBLE
WARNINGS AND BE PREPARED TO TAKE APPROPRIATE ACTION SHOULD SEVERE
WEATHER THREATEN.

WIND GUSTS OF 40 TO 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

BSH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
345 PM EST TUE MAR 04 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0341 PM     FLASH FLOOD      ROSMAN                  35.14N 82.82W
03/04/2008                   TRANSYLVANIA       NC   CO-OP OBSERVER

            DEPOT STREET FLOODED AND WATER APPROACHING ONE HOME.

0335 PM     FLASH FLOOD      LAKE TOXAWAY            35.13N 82.93W
03/04/2008                   TRANSYLVANIA       NC   COUNTY OFFICIAL

            HIGHWAY 64 CLOSED DUE TO FLOODING.

&&

PTANNER

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
348 PM EST TUE MAR 4 2008

NCZ048-051>053-059-062>064-042145-
BUNCOMBE-HAYWOOD-MACON-MADISON-NORTHERN JACKSON-SOUTHERN
JACKSON-SWAIN-TRANSYLVANIA-
348 PM EST TUE MAR 4 2008

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT MACON...HAYWOOD...JACKSON...
NORTHWESTERN BUNCOMBE...SWAIN...MADISON AND WESTERN TRANSYLVANIA
COUNTIES THROUGH 445 PM EST...

AT 348 PM EST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 7 MILES NORTHWEST OF
SMOKEMONT TO 5 MILES WEST OF OTTO...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 50 MPH.

THESE STORMS WILL BE NEAR...
  SYLVA BY 355 PM EST.
  CULLOWHEE BY 400 PM EST.
  WATERVILLE BY 405 PM EST.
  WAYNESVILLE BY 410 PM EST.
  LAKE JUNALUSKA BY 415 PM EST.
  CRUSO BY 425 PM EST.

WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THESE STORMS.

HG