Lake Wind Advisory 21, NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC

Elbert County, GA, Franklin County, GA, Habersham County, GA, Hart County, GA, Rabun County, GA, Stephens County, GA, Alexander County, NC, Avery County, NC, Buncombe County, NC, Burke County, NC, Cabarrus County, NC, Caldwell County, NC, Catawba County, NC, Cleveland County, NC, Davie County, NC, Gaston County, NC, Graham County, NC, Haywood County, NC, Henderson County, NC, Iredell County, NC, Jackson County, NC, Lincoln County, NC, Macon County, NC, Madison County, NC, McDowell County, NC, Mecklenburg County, NC, Mitchell County, NC, Polk County, NC, Rowan County, NC, Rutherford County, NC, Swain County, NC, Transylvania County, NC, Union County, NC, Yancey County, NC, Abbeville County, SC, Anderson County, SC, Cherokee County, SC, Chester County, SC, Greenwood County, SC, Laurens County, SC, Union County, SC, York County, SC

000 
WWUS72 KGSP 041608
NPWGSP

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1108 AM EST TUE MAR 4 2008

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ033-035>037-048>053-056>059-062>065-
068>072-082-501>510-SCZ001>014-019-050200-
/O.CON.KGSP.LW.Y.0021.000000T0000Z-080305T0200Z/
RABUN-HABERSHAM-STEPHENS-FRANKLIN-HART-ELBERT-AVERY-ALEXANDER-
IREDELL-DAVIE-MADISON-YANCEY-MITCHELL-SWAIN-HAYWOOD-BUNCOMBE-
CATAWBA-ROWAN-GRAHAM-NORTHERN JACKSON-MACON-SOUTHERN JACKSON-
TRANSYLVANIA-HENDERSON-CLEVELAND-LINCOLN-GASTON-MECKLENBURG-
CABARRUS-UNION NC-CALDWELL MOUNTAINS-GREATER CALDWELL-
BURKE MOUNTAINS-GREATER BURKE-MCDOWELL MOUNTAINS-EASTERN MCDOWELL-
RUTHERFORD MOUNTAINS-GREATER RUTHERFORD-POLK MOUNTAINS-
EASTERN POLK-OCONEE MOUNTAINS-PICKENS MOUNTAINS-
GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS-GREATER OCONEE-GREATER PICKENS-
GREATER GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG-CHEROKEE-YORK-ANDERSON-ABBEVILLE-
LAURENS-UNION SC-CHESTER-GREENWOOD-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...CLAYTON...CLARKESVILLE...TOCCOA...
HARTWELL...ELBERTON...NEWLAND...STATESVILLE...MOCKSVILLE...
SPRUCE PINE...CHEROKEE...WAYNESVILLE...ASHEVILLE...HICKORY...
SALISBURY...SYLVA...FRANKLIN...BREVARD...HENDERSONVILLE...
SHELBY...LINCOLNTON...GASTONIA...CHARLOTTE...CONCORD...MONROE...
LENOIR...MORGANTON...MARION...LAKE LURE...RUTHERFORD...COLUMBUS...
GREENVILLE...SPARTANBURG...GAFFNEY...ROCK HILL...ANDERSON...
ABBEVILLE...LAURENS...UNION...CHESTER...GREENWOOD
1108 AM EST TUE MAR 4 2008

...LAKE WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM EST THIS
EVENING...

A LAKE WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM EST THIS
EVENING. 

SUSTAINED SOUTH WINDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 MPH
WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE WESTERN CAROLINAS AND NORTHEAST GEORGIA
THIS AFTERNOON. ISOLATED WIND GUSTS AS HIGH AS 50 MPH WILL BE
POSSIBLE IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE MOUNTAINS.

A LAKE WIND ADVISORY INDICATES THAT WINDS WILL CAUSE ROUGH CHOP
ON AREA LAKES. SMALL BOATS WILL BE ESPECIALLY PRONE TO CAPSIZING.

$$

000 
WWUS72 KGSP 050227
NPWGSP

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
927 PM EST TUE MAR 4 2008

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ033-035>037-048>053-056>059-062>065-
068>072-082-501>510-SCZ001>014-019-050330-
/O.EXP.KGSP.LW.Y.0021.000000T0000Z-080305T0200Z/
RABUN-HABERSHAM-STEPHENS-FRANKLIN-HART-ELBERT-AVERY-ALEXANDER-
IREDELL-DAVIE-MADISON-YANCEY-MITCHELL-SWAIN-HAYWOOD-BUNCOMBE-
CATAWBA-ROWAN-GRAHAM-NORTHERN JACKSON-MACON-SOUTHERN JACKSON-
TRANSYLVANIA-HENDERSON-CLEVELAND-LINCOLN-GASTON-MECKLENBURG-
CABARRUS-UNION NC-CALDWELL MOUNTAINS-GREATER CALDWELL-
BURKE MOUNTAINS-GREATER BURKE-MCDOWELL MOUNTAINS-EASTERN MCDOWELL-
RUTHERFORD MOUNTAINS-GREATER RUTHERFORD-POLK MOUNTAINS-
EASTERN POLK-OCONEE MOUNTAINS-PICKENS MOUNTAINS-
GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS-GREATER OCONEE-GREATER PICKENS-
GREATER GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG-CHEROKEE-YORK-ANDERSON-ABBEVILLE-
LAURENS-UNION SC-CHESTER-GREENWOOD-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...CLAYTON...CLARKESVILLE...TOCCOA...
HARTWELL...ELBERTON...NEWLAND...STATESVILLE...MOCKSVILLE...
SPRUCE PINE...CHEROKEE...WAYNESVILLE...ASHEVILLE...HICKORY...
SALISBURY...SYLVA...FRANKLIN...BREVARD...HENDERSONVILLE...
SHELBY...LINCOLNTON...GASTONIA...CHARLOTTE...CONCORD...MONROE...
LENOIR...MORGANTON...MARION...LAKE LURE...RUTHERFORD...COLUMBUS...
GREENVILLE...SPARTANBURG...GAFFNEY...ROCK HILL...ANDERSON...
ABBEVILLE...LAURENS...UNION...CHESTER...GREENWOOD
927 PM EST TUE MAR 4 2008

...LAKE WIND ADVISORY HAS EXPIRED...

THE LAKE WIND ADVISORY IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT. 

SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE GUSTY THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE EVENING...BUT SHOULD DISSIPATE OVERNIGHT.

$$

ARK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1237 AM EST TUE MAR 4 2008

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST FROM THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...REACHING
THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS THIS EVENING. THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT
WILL CROSS OUR AREA TONIGHT WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM
THE WEST THROUGH MID WEEK. ANOTHER...YET WEAKER COLD FRONT IS THEN
EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE WESTERN CAROLINAS THURSDAY EVENING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 1030 PM...WATCHING A LINE OF STRONG/SEVERE CONVECTION TRACKING
ACROSS MS/LA THIS EVENING. MAINLY A MID LEVEL CLOUD DECK AND
ANVIL/DEBRIS CIRRUS OUT AHEAD OF THE LINE EXTENDING TO THE CENTRAL
CAROLINAS. THE 00Z FFC/CHS/GSO SOUNDINGS ALL SHOW THAT WHILE THE LOW
LEVELS ARE MOISTENING...THE SHORT RANGE GUIDANCE SEEMS TO BE
OVERDONE. THIS IS ALSO VERIFIED BY RADAR MOSAIC SHOWING NO SHOWER
ACTIVITY YET ANYWHERE NEAR OUR CWFA. ITS POSSIBLE THAT WEAKENING
SHOWERS MAY REACH GRAHAM/SWAIN/MACON COUNTIES BEFORE ANY ESCARPMENT
UPSLOPE ACTIVITY BEGINS. IN ANY CASE...IVE CUT BACK POP
SIGNIFICANTLY OVERNIGHT...JUST KEEPING A CHC FOR THE BLUE RIDGE
ESCARPMENT SHOWERS AND SOUTHWESTERN NC MTNS LATE. TEMPS WERE ALSO
ADJUSTED UPWARDS BASED ON TRENDS. THE LATEST MOS CONSENSUS MIN TEMPS
WERE SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER THAN INHERITED FCST. GIVEN THE STRONG
WAA AND INCREASING CLOUDS/DEWPOINTS...I BUMPED UP MIN TEMPS TOWARDS
THOSE NUMBERS (M/U50S MOST SITES). I ALSO UPDATED WINDS WITH LATEST
GUIDANCE. IT STILL LOOKS THAT WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA SHOULD BE
CONFINED TO HIGH ELEVATIONS. 00Z RAOBS SHOWED THAT 850MB JET IS JUST
STARTING TO CRANK UP ACROSS THE LOWER MS VALLEY. WINDS WILL PICK UP
ACROSS ALL AREAS BY MIDDAY TUESDAY...SO A LAKE WIND OR WIND ADVISORY
WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR TUESDAY AFTN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 200 PM MONDAY...THINGS STILL LOOK TO BE IN ORDER REGARDING THE
EVOLUTION OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND ATTENDING COLD FRONT FOR
TUES AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE OPERATIONAL NAM AND GFS ARE IN
PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS SYSTEM AS BOTH SEEM TO BE TRENDING A
BIT SLOWER WITH FROPA. ON TUES...THE UPPER LOW WILL LIFT
NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AS THE SURFACE LOW TRACKS JUST
ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE AXIS OF THE APPS. THE COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP
THROUGH THE DEEP SOUTH ON TUES...PUSHING A LINE OF STRONG CONVECTION
TOWARDS THE WESTERN CAROLINAS BY THE AFTERNOON. FORCING WILL BE
PLENTIFUL...AS BOTH THE NAM AND THE GFS SHOW SOME UPPER DIVERGENCE
IN ADDITION TO A SOLID BAND OF OMEGA TRANSLATING ACROSS THE FA TUES
EVENING. FOLLOWING FROPA...WRAP AROUND MOISTURE WILL BE PRESENT
ACROSS THE NC MNTS BUT NW FLOW WILL BE VERY SHORT LIVED. THINGS DRY
OUT QUICKLY WED MORNING BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH ONLY A LINGERING CHC
ACROSS THE NC MNTS. WILL GO AHEAD AND REMOVE NC MNT CHC AND SLT CHC
FOR WED...WITH DRY FORECAST THEREAFTER. MADE LITTLE IN THE WAY OF
CHANGES TO THE FORECAST THAT I INHERITED AS IT REFLECTED MY CURRENT
THINKING. CAT POPS ARE CERTAINLY IN ORDER TUES AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...BEFORE TAPERING OFF EARLY WED.

REGARDING THE SEVERE THREAT FOR TUES AFTERNOON AND EVENING...ALL THE
NECESSARY PARAMETERS APPEAR TO BE IN PLACE. PLAN VIEW CAPE ON BOTH
THE NAM AND THE GFS REMAINS...WITH THE 12Z GFS TRENDING UPWARD WITH
CAPE VALUES IN THE 200-400 J/KG RANGE ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
CWA. SREF PLUMES SHOW MEAN CAPE VALUES AROUND 300 J/KG FROM GSP TO
HKY AND CLT. MAX VALUES IN THE SREF MEAN CAPE VALUES ARE GENERALLY
CLUSTERED AROUND 00Z WED. BOTH THE NAM AND GFS USHER IN A STRONG
LLVL JET IN TO THE EASTERN FA BY AROUND 00Z WED AS WELL. THE NAM IS
MORE ROBUST WITH THIS FEATURE...ADVERTISING A 50-60 KT 850MB WIND MAX.
SREF SHOWS BETTER THAN A 70% CHC OF 0-3KM HELICITY GREATER THAN 200
M2/S2 DURING THIS TIME PERIOD AS WELL. SO THE COMBINATION OF LOW END
CAPE AND HIGH SHEAR WILL SUPPORT THE EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF A
STRONG TO SEVERE LINE OF CONVECTION CROSS THE FA TUES EVENING. LOOKS
AS THOUGH THE MAIN THREAT AREAS WILL BE ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE I-85
CORRIDOR ACROSS THE UPSTATE...THEN GENERALLY ALONG AND EAST OF I-77
IN THE NC PIEDMONT. THIS MATCHES UP WELL WITH SPC SLT RISK AND 45%
CHC AREA OF DAMAGING WINDS. AS SUCH...I HAVE ADDED GUSTY WINDS TO
THE WX GRIDS IN THESE AREAS AND WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT IN THE
HWO.

ONE POTENTIAL LIMITING CONCERN FOR THIS EVENT WILL BE TO SEE HOW THE
LINE OF CONVECTION EVOLVES IN REGARD TO ITS ORIENTATION TO THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY. CURRENT MODEL DATA SEEMS TO POINT SOMEWHAT TOWARDS
A SLOW CONVECTION EVENT...AS SEEN IN RECENT CSTAR RESEARCH.
THEREFORE FOR QPF HAVE GENERALLY FOLLOWED HPC GUIDANCE WITH LITTLE
ADJUSTMENT. HOWEVER...IF THIS WERE TO BECOME MORE OF A FAST
CONVECTION EVENT WHERE THE CONVECTIVE LINE RACES OUT AHEAD OF THE
COLD FRONT...NORTHWARD TRANSPORT OF MOISTURE INTO THE AREA COULD BE
INTERRUPTED AND QPF DIMINISHED. EVEN IF THIS WERE TO OCCUR...GIVEN
THE STRENGTH OF THE OVERALL FORCING PRESENT I WOULD NOT ANTICIPATE A
TOTAL VOID OF PRECIP ACROSS THE WESTERN CAROLINAS. WE WILL JUST HAVE
TO WATCH CAREFULLY HOW THE EVENT EVOLVES WITH TIME.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AT 230 PM...A BROAD LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL PERSIST OVER THE ERN CONUS
FROM THURSDAY UNTIL AT LEAST SUNDAY. TIMING AND AMPLITUDE OF
SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED IN THE CYCLONIC FLOW WILL MAKE FOR RELATIVELY
HIGH UNCERTAINTY THROUGH THE PERIOD. A BLENDED SOLUTION AMONG MEDIUM
RANGE MODELS SUGGESTS A FAIRLY BROAD WINDOW OF BEST PRECIP CHANCES
FROM THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY...AND THEN AGAIN EARLY
MONDAY MORNING FROM SUCCESSIVE SHORTWAVES.

THE FIRST SHORTWAVE ARRIVING ON THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE COINCIDENT
WITH THE SPIN UP OF AN EASTERN GULF LOW. CONSENSUS KEEPS THE LOW
CENTER AND DEEPER MOISTURE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST THROUGH
FRIDAY...BUT THE MORE WESTERLY TRACK OF THE ECM WILL NEED
MONITORING. WILL HEDGE SLIGHT HIGHER LOW END CHANCE POPS TOWARD THE
PIEDMONT FOR MUCH OF FRIDAY. OTHERWISE...QPF WILL BE HARD TO COME BY
WITH EACH WAVE...ANY LIGHT PRECIP COULD END AS HIGH ELEVATION SNOW
SHOWERS AROUND DAYBREAK FRIDAY...SATURDAY...AND MONDAY MORNINGS.
LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED HOWEVER.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MVFR CIGS HAVE BEEN A BIT SLOWER TO DEVELOP THAN PREVIOUSLY
EXPECTED...BUT AS OF 05Z...MVFR CIGS WERE BEGINNING TO EXPAND ACROSS
WESTERN NC. EXPECT MOST TERMINALS TO SEE CIGS IN THE 2-3 KFT
RANGE...IF NOT LOWER BY DAWN. STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL ALSO
CONTINUE OVERNIGHT...AND PERIODIC GUSTS IN THE UPPER TEENS/LOW 20S
WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE. AS WIND FIELDS AND MOISTURE CONTINUE TO
INCREASE...SHOWERS SHOULD BEGIN DEVELOPING ALONG/NEAR THE SOUTHERN
ESCARPMENT OF THE BLUE RIDGE BY SUNRISE...SO WILL CONTINUE TO
ADVERTISE -SHRA AT KAVL BEGINNING AT 09Z. THE GFS AND NAM REMAIN AT
ODDS REGARDING THE TIMING OF FRONTAL BAND OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FOR LATER TODAY. BASED ON REGIONAL RADAR TRENDS...AND
SUPPORT FROM THE SHORT RANGE ENSEMBLES...I TEND TO BELIEVE THE
FASTER GFS HAS THE BEST HANDLE ON TIMING. THIS WOULD RESULT IN
SHOWERS AND A FEW TS AFFECTING THE TERMINALS GENERALLY BETWEEN 16
AND 20Z. GUSTY WINDS MAY ACCOMPANY TSTORMS...PARTICULARLY AT KCLT.
THE FRONTAL BAND SHOULD BE EAST OF THE AREA AROUND 00Z.

OUTLOOK...CONDITIONS RAPIDLY IMPROVE BY WEDNESDAY MORNING...AND VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR WEDNESDAY AFTN THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...DEO
NEAR TERM...ARK
SHORT TERM...BSH
LONG TERM...HG
AVIATION...JDL

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
350 PM EST MON MAR 3 2008

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ033-035>037-048>053-056>059-062>065-
068>072-082-501>510-SCZ001>014-019-042100-
RABUN-HABERSHAM-STEPHENS-FRANKLIN-HART-ELBERT-AVERY-ALEXANDER-
IREDELL-DAVIE-MADISON-YANCEY-MITCHELL-SWAIN-HAYWOOD-BUNCOMBE-CATAWBA-
ROWAN-GRAHAM-NORTHERN JACKSON-MACON-SOUTHERN JACKSON-TRANSYLVANIA-
HENDERSON-CLEVELAND-LINCOLN-GASTON-MECKLENBURG-CABARRUS-UNION NC-
CALDWELL MOUNTAINS-GREATER CALDWELL-BURKE MOUNTAINS-GREATER BURKE-
MCDOWELL MOUNTAINS-EASTERN MCDOWELL-RUTHERFORD MOUNTAINS-
GREATER RUTHERFORD-POLK MOUNTAINS-EASTERN POLK-OCONEE MOUNTAINS-
PICKENS MOUNTAINS-GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS-GREATER OCONEE-
GREATER PICKENS-GREATER GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG-CHEROKEE-YORK-
ANDERSON-ABBEVILLE-LAURENS-UNION SC-CHESTER-GREENWOOD-
350 PM EST MON MAR 3 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST GEORGIA...PIEDMONT
NORTH CAROLINA...WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

A STRONG COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE WESTERN CAROLINAS AND
NORTHEAST GEORGIA TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A STRONG LINE OF
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ALONG THIS FRONT AND PUSH EASTWARD
ACROSS THE AREA. STRONG WIND SHEAR AND WEAK INSTABILITY WILL
COMBINE TO CREATE AN ENVIRONMENT IN WHICH SOME OF THESE
THUNDERSTORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE. THE MAIN THREAT AREA TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING FOR SEVERE STORMS WILL BE ALONG AND SOUTH
OF THE I-85 CORRIDOR FROM NORTHEAST GEORGIA ACROSS THE
UPSTATE...AS WELL AS ALONG AND EAST OF THE I-77 CORRIDOR IN THE
NORTH CAROLINA PIEDMONT. STRONG...DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND ISOLATED
TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS MAY BE NEEDED TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING TO REPORT
DAMAGE FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.

BSH