Severe Thunderstorm Warning 170, NWS Goodland, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1238 PM MDT THU JUN 5 2008

.DISCUSSION...
217 AM MDT THU JUN 5 2008

DEEP H5 TROUGH OVER SOUTHERN UTAH WAS DIGGING EAST/SOUTHEAST TOWARD
THE FOUR CORNERS REGION AND IS PROGGED TO MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL
ROCKIES BY 18Z BEFORE LIFTING RAPIDLY NORTHEAST INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS BY 00Z. SOME CONCERN THAT THE SHORT RANGE MODELS ARE LIFTING
THIS TROUGH OUT TO RAPIDLY INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS AS H3 JET WOULD
INDICATE MORE DIGGING WHICH WAS SUPPORTED BY 00Z HEIGHT FALL MAXIMUM
AT KFGZ AND BROAD AREA OF H5 HEIGHT RISES ACROSS THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY/GREAT LAKES AREAS. A SLOWER SOLUTION COULD BE THE
DIFFERENCE BETWEEN MORE WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER ACROSS THE
TRI-STATE AREA THIS AFTERNOON OR A NEAR MISS WITH THE PRIMARY FOCUS
EAST/NORTHEAST OF THE AREA. WITH SUCH GOOD AGREEMENT WILL GENERALLY
FOLLOW THE SUITE OF 00Z MODELS WHICH WILL KEEP THE BEST CHANCE FOR
SEVERE WEATHER ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN ZONES/OR IMMEDIATELY EAST
OF THE TRI-STATE AREA WHERE SHEAR/BUOYANCY WILL BE MAXIMIZED.
FURTHER WEST...THE STEEPEST MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL EXIST PRIOR
TO 00Z WITH ANY LINGERING SHOWERS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH AROUND OR
BEFORE 06Z.

DUE TO HEAVY RAIN ACROSS NORTHERN YUMA/NORTHWEST DUNDY COUNTIES ON
WEDNESDAY...A FLASH FLOOD WATCH WILL BE HOISTED WITH THE POTENTIAL
FOR ADDITIONAL RAIN THROUGH 06Z TONIGHT.

FRI-SAT...WEST/SOUTHWEST MID/UPPER FLOW WILL RETURN ON FRIDAY AS THE
STORM SYSTEM OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS LIFTS RAPIDLY NORTH INTO CANADA
WITH RISING HEIGHTS ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS SUPPORTING HIGHS
IN THE 80S. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL TRANSLATE EAST ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS ON SATURDAY WITH A COLD FRONT DRIVING SOUTH INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS. DRY PRE-FRONTAL SOUTHWEST WINDS MAY HELP BOOST
HIGHS WITH SOME POTENTIAL FOR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST ZONES AND WILL INTRODUCE SOME LOW POPS AFTER
21Z CONTINUING INTO THE EVENING AS THE COLD FRONT HANGS ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE AREA.

MWM
&&

.AVIATION...
1218 PM MDT THU JUN 5 2008

FOR THE 18Z TAF CYCLE...ALTHOUGH VFR CONDITIONS ARE NOW IN PLACE
FOR BOTH KGLD AND KMCK...NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING HOURS WILL LIKELY BRING BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH ABOUT 03Z...AFTER WHICH CEILINGS AND SKIES WILL
BEGIN TO CLEAR. BY 09Z...CALM AND VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD RETURN TO
THE REGION.

BLM
&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
NE...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR NEZ079.

CO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR COZ090.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1053 AM MDT THU JUN 5 2008

COZ090>092-KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042-NEZ079>081-061645-
YUMA-KIT CARSON-CHEYENNE CO-CHEYENNE KS-RAWLINS-DECATUR-NORTON-
SHERMAN-THOMAS-SHERIDAN-GRAHAM-WALLACE-LOGAN-GOVE-GREELEY-WICHITA-
DUNDY-HITCHCOCK-RED WILLOW-
1053 AM MDT THU JUN 5 2008 /1153 AM CDT THU JUN 5 2008/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EXTREME SOUTHWEST
NEBRASKA...NORTHWEST KANSAS AND EAST CENTRAL COLORADO.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

STRONG STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE HEAVY RAIN ACROSS EAST
CENTRAL COLORADO AND WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE INTO NORTHWEST KANSAS
AND SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY. THERE IS A
SLIGHT RISK OF LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...AND ISOLATED TORNADOS
WITH SOME OF THE STRONGER STORMS TODAY. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH
REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR NORTHERN YUMA AND NORTHWEST DUNDY COUNTIES
WHERE HEAVY RAIN FELL YESTERDAY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY FROM SATURDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NEXT WEEK. ALTHOUGH THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD
HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS CURRENTLY LOW...DANGEROUS CLOUD TO GROUND
LIGHTNING WILL BE PRODUCED BY ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT DO DEVELOP.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED.

LOCKHART

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1246 PM MDT THU JUN 05 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1242 PM     HAIL             GOODLAND                39.35N 101.71W
06/05/2008  M0.88 INCH       SHERMAN            KS   NWS EMPLOYEE

&&

KJAMES

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1255 PM MDT THU JUN 05 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1253 PM     HAIL             3 E GOODLAND            39.35N 101.65W
06/05/2008  E0.88 INCH       SHERMAN            KS   AMATEUR RADIO

&&

BLM