Severe Thunderstorm Warning 165, NWS Goodland, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
217 AM MDT THU JUN 5 2008

.DISCUSSION...
217 AM MDT THU JUN 5 2008

DEEP H5 TROUGH OVER SOUTHERN UTAH WAS DIGGING EAST/SOUTHEAST TOWARD
THE FOUR CORNERS REGION AND IS PROGGED TO MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL
ROCKIES BY 18Z BEFORE LIFTING RAPIDLY NORTHEAST INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS BY 00Z. SOME CONCERN THAT THE SHORT RANGE MODELS ARE LIFTING
THIS TROUGH OUT TO RAPIDLY INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS AS H3 JET WOULD
INDICATE MORE DIGGING WHICH WAS SUPPORTED BY 00Z HEIGHT FALL MAXIMUM
AT KFGZ AND BROAD AREA OF H5 HEIGHT RISES ACROSS THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY/GREAT LAKES AREAS. A SLOWER SOLUTION COULD BE THE
DIFFERENCE BETWEEN MORE WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER ACROSS THE
TRI-STATE AREA THIS AFTERNOON OR A NEAR MISS WITH THE PRIMARY FOCUS
EAST/NORTHEAST OF THE AREA. WITH SUCH GOOD AGREEMENT WILL GENERALLY
FOLLOW THE SUITE OF 00Z MODELS WHICH WILL KEEP THE BEST CHANCE FOR
SEVERE WEATHER ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN ZONES/OR IMMEDIATELY EAST
OF THE TRI-STATE AREA WHERE SHEAR/BUOYANCY WILL BE MAXIMIZED.
FURTHER WEST...THE STEEPEST MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL EXIST PRIOR
TO 00Z WITH ANY LINGERING SHOWERS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH AROUND OR
BEFORE 06Z.

DUE TO HEAVY RAIN ACROSS NORTHERN YUMA/NORTHWEST DUNDY COUNTIES ON
WEDNESDAY...A FLASH FLOOD WATCH WILL BE HOISTED WITH THE POTENTIAL
FOR ADDITIONAL RAIN THROUGH 06Z TONIGHT.

FRI-SAT...WEST/SOUTHWEST MID/UPPER FLOW WILL RETURN ON FRIDAY AS THE
STORM SYSTEM OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS LIFTS RAPIDLY NORTH INTO CANADA
WITH RISING HEIGHTS ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS SUPPORTING HIGHS
IN THE 80S. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL TRANSLATE EAST ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS ON SATURDAY WITH A COLD FRONT DRIVING SOUTH INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS. DRY PRE-FRONTAL SOUTHWEST WINDS MAY HELP BOOST
HIGHS WITH SOME POTENTIAL FOR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST ZONES AND WILL INTRODUCE SOME LOW POPS AFTER
21Z CONTINUING INTO THE EVENING AS THE COLD FRONT HANGS ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE AREA.

MWM
&&

.AVIATION...
1119 PM MDT WED JUN 4 2008

NORTHEASTERLY WIND WILL ONCE AGAIN PROMOTE STRATUS DEVELOPMENT AND
LOWERING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. WITH STRATUS ALREADY IN
PLACE ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION...AM MORE CONCERNED WITH LOW
CEILINGS THAN ANY FOG DEVELOPMENT. ANOTHER ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS
IS POSSIBLE TOMORROW AFTERNOON...THOUGH EXACT TIMING IS STILL
UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME.

SFJ
&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
NE...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR NEZ079.

CO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR COZ090.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
500 AM MDT THU JUN 5 2008

COZ090>092-KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042-NEZ079>081-061200-
YUMA-KIT CARSON-CHEYENNE CO-CHEYENNE KS-RAWLINS-DECATUR-NORTON-
SHERMAN-THOMAS-SHERIDAN-GRAHAM-WALLACE-LOGAN-GOVE-GREELEY-WICHITA-
DUNDY-HITCHCOCK-RED WILLOW-
500 AM MDT THU JUN 5 2008 /600 AM CDT THU JUN 5 2008/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EXTREME SOUTHWEST
NEBRASKA...NORTHWEST KANSAS AND EAST CENTRAL COLORADO.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER EAST CENTRAL COLORADO WILL CONTINUE TO
PRODUCE LARGE HAIL THIS MORNING. THIS ACTIVITY WILL MOVE NORTHEAST
IMPACTING MUCH OF WESTERN KANSAS AND EXTREME SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA
LATER THIS MORNING AND INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS.

INITIALLY...LARGE HAIL WILL REMAIN THE PRIMARY THREAT...HOWEVER AS
THE AIRMASS BEGINS TO WARM LATER THIS MORNING...A DAMAGING WIND AND
TORNADO THREAT MAY DEVELOP ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN KANSAS AND
EXTREME SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA.

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR NORTHERN YUMA AND
NORTHWEST DUNDY COUNTIES WHERE HEAVY RAIN FELL YESTERDAY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL BE NEEDED TODAY.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
417 AM MDT THU JUN 5 2008

COZ090-091-051115-
KIT CARSON COUNTY-YUMA COUNTY-
417 AM MDT THU JUN 5 2008

...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GOODLAND HAS ISSUED A SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER ALERT FOR KIT CARSON COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL COLORADO AND YUMA
COUNTY IN NORTHEAST COLORADO...

AT 413 AM MDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR VONA...AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 28 MPH.

PENNY TO NICKEL SIZE HAIL...AND WINDS TO 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH
THIS STORM.

THIS INCLUDES HIGHWAY 385 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 195 AND 201.

SFJ

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
503 AM MDT THU JUN 05 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0450 AM     HAIL             LAIRD                   40.08N 102.10W
06/05/2008  E1.00 INCH       YUMA               CO   PUBLIC

&&

SJOHNSON

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
619 AM MDT THU JUN 05 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0615 AM     HAIL             GOODLAND                39.35N 101.71W
06/05/2008  M1.50 INCH       SHERMAN            KS   OFFICIAL NWS OBS

&&

SJOHNSON

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
621 AM MDT THU JUN 05 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0615 AM     TSTM WND GST     7 N RULETON             39.44N 101.88W
06/05/2008  E70 MPH          SHERMAN            KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

            WINDS AT LEAST 70 MPH...BREAKING BRANCHES OF 3 INCHES IN
            DIAMETER. ACOMPANIED BY QUARTER SIZE HAIL.

&&

SJOHNSON

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
635 AM MDT THU JUN 05 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0615 AM     TSTM WND DMG     7 N RULETON             39.44N 101.88W
06/05/2008                   SHERMAN            KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

            AT LEAST ONE CENTER PIVOT SPRINKLER SYSTEM OVERTURNED.

&&

SJOHNSON