Severe Thunderstorm Warning 159, NWS Goodland, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
217 AM MDT THU JUN 5 2008

.DISCUSSION...
217 AM MDT THU JUN 5 2008

DEEP H5 TROUGH OVER SOUTHERN UTAH WAS DIGGING EAST/SOUTHEAST TOWARD
THE FOUR CORNERS REGION AND IS PROGGED TO MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL
ROCKIES BY 18Z BEFORE LIFTING RAPIDLY NORTHEAST INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS BY 00Z. SOME CONCERN THAT THE SHORT RANGE MODELS ARE LIFTING
THIS TROUGH OUT TO RAPIDLY INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS AS H3 JET WOULD
INDICATE MORE DIGGING WHICH WAS SUPPORTED BY 00Z HEIGHT FALL MAXIMUM
AT KFGZ AND BROAD AREA OF H5 HEIGHT RISES ACROSS THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY/GREAT LAKES AREAS. A SLOWER SOLUTION COULD BE THE
DIFFERENCE BETWEEN MORE WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER ACROSS THE
TRI-STATE AREA THIS AFTERNOON OR A NEAR MISS WITH THE PRIMARY FOCUS
EAST/NORTHEAST OF THE AREA. WITH SUCH GOOD AGREEMENT WILL GENERALLY
FOLLOW THE SUITE OF 00Z MODELS WHICH WILL KEEP THE BEST CHANCE FOR
SEVERE WEATHER ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN ZONES/OR IMMEDIATELY EAST
OF THE TRI-STATE AREA WHERE SHEAR/BUOYANCY WILL BE MAXIMIZED.
FURTHER WEST...THE STEEPEST MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL EXIST PRIOR
TO 00Z WITH ANY LINGERING SHOWERS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH AROUND OR
BEFORE 06Z.

DUE TO HEAVY RAIN ACROSS NORTHERN YUMA/NORTHWEST DUNDY COUNTIES ON
WEDNESDAY...A FLASH FLOOD WATCH WILL BE HOISTED WITH THE POTENTIAL
FOR ADDITIONAL RAIN THROUGH 06Z TONIGHT.

FRI-SAT...WEST/SOUTHWEST MID/UPPER FLOW WILL RETURN ON FRIDAY AS THE
STORM SYSTEM OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS LIFTS RAPIDLY NORTH INTO CANADA
WITH RISING HEIGHTS ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS SUPPORTING HIGHS
IN THE 80S. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL TRANSLATE EAST ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS ON SATURDAY WITH A COLD FRONT DRIVING SOUTH INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS. DRY PRE-FRONTAL SOUTHWEST WINDS MAY HELP BOOST
HIGHS WITH SOME POTENTIAL FOR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST ZONES AND WILL INTRODUCE SOME LOW POPS AFTER
21Z CONTINUING INTO THE EVENING AS THE COLD FRONT HANGS ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE AREA.

MWM
&&

.AVIATION...
1119 PM MDT WED JUN 4 2008

NORTHEASTERLY WIND WILL ONCE AGAIN PROMOTE STRATUS DEVELOPMENT AND
LOWERING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. WITH STRATUS ALREADY IN
PLACE ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION...AM MORE CONCERNED WITH LOW
CEILINGS THAN ANY FOG DEVELOPMENT. ANOTHER ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS
IS POSSIBLE TOMORROW AFTERNOON...THOUGH EXACT TIMING IS STILL
UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME.

SFJ
&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
NE...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR NEZ079.

CO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR COZ090.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1001 AM MDT WED JUN 4 2008

COZ090>092-KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042-NEZ079>081-051515-
YUMA-KIT CARSON-CHEYENNE CO-CHEYENNE KS-RAWLINS-DECATUR-NORTON-
SHERMAN-THOMAS-SHERIDAN-GRAHAM-WALLACE-LOGAN-GOVE-GREELEY-WICHITA-
DUNDY-HITCHCOCK-RED WILLOW-
1001 AM MDT WED JUN 4 2008 /1101 AM CDT WED JUN 4 2008/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EXTREME SOUTHWEST
NEBRASKA...NORTHWEST KANSAS AND EAST CENTRAL COLORADO.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SEVERE WEATHER...INCLUDING THE POTENTIAL FOR TORNADOES...WILL
OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. LOW PRESSURE WILL STRENGTHEN
OVER SOUTHEAST COLORADO THIS AFTERNOON...AND A WARM FRONT WILL
EXTEND FROM SOUTHEAST COLORADO TO CENTRAL NEBRASKA BY THIS
EVENING. THE AIR MASS OVER THE TRI-STATE AREA WILL BE MOIST AND
UNSTABLE.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP LATE THIS AFTERNOON MAINLY OVER EASTERN
COLORADO. THE STORMS WILL MOVE INTO WESTERN KANSAS AND SOUTHWEST
NEBRASKA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ALL OF THE STORMS HAVE
THE POTENTIAL FOR PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL...BUT THE
GREATEST THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE NORTH OF INTERSTATE 70.
THERE IS ALSO A CHANCE FOR TORNADOES...WITH THE GREATEST THREAT
AREA NORTHEAST OF A LINE FROM TRENTON NEBRASKA TO HOXIE KANSAS.

HEAVY RAIN IS ALSO POSSIBLE...AND A FLASH FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN
ISSUED FOR PARTS OF SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA AND NORTHWEST KANSAS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE AGAIN ACROSS THE TRI-STATE AREA ON
THURSDAY. ALTHOUGH INSTABILITY WILL BE LIMITED...A FEW STORMS MAY
BECOME SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL BE NEEDED.

MENTZER