Severe Thunderstorm Warning 167, NWS Goodland, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
217 AM MDT THU JUN 5 2008

.DISCUSSION...
217 AM MDT THU JUN 5 2008

DEEP H5 TROUGH OVER SOUTHERN UTAH WAS DIGGING EAST/SOUTHEAST TOWARD
THE FOUR CORNERS REGION AND IS PROGGED TO MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL
ROCKIES BY 18Z BEFORE LIFTING RAPIDLY NORTHEAST INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS BY 00Z. SOME CONCERN THAT THE SHORT RANGE MODELS ARE LIFTING
THIS TROUGH OUT TO RAPIDLY INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS AS H3 JET WOULD
INDICATE MORE DIGGING WHICH WAS SUPPORTED BY 00Z HEIGHT FALL MAXIMUM
AT KFGZ AND BROAD AREA OF H5 HEIGHT RISES ACROSS THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY/GREAT LAKES AREAS. A SLOWER SOLUTION COULD BE THE
DIFFERENCE BETWEEN MORE WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER ACROSS THE
TRI-STATE AREA THIS AFTERNOON OR A NEAR MISS WITH THE PRIMARY FOCUS
EAST/NORTHEAST OF THE AREA. WITH SUCH GOOD AGREEMENT WILL GENERALLY
FOLLOW THE SUITE OF 00Z MODELS WHICH WILL KEEP THE BEST CHANCE FOR
SEVERE WEATHER ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN ZONES/OR IMMEDIATELY EAST
OF THE TRI-STATE AREA WHERE SHEAR/BUOYANCY WILL BE MAXIMIZED.
FURTHER WEST...THE STEEPEST MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL EXIST PRIOR
TO 00Z WITH ANY LINGERING SHOWERS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH AROUND OR
BEFORE 06Z.

DUE TO HEAVY RAIN ACROSS NORTHERN YUMA/NORTHWEST DUNDY COUNTIES ON
WEDNESDAY...A FLASH FLOOD WATCH WILL BE HOISTED WITH THE POTENTIAL
FOR ADDITIONAL RAIN THROUGH 06Z TONIGHT.

FRI-SAT...WEST/SOUTHWEST MID/UPPER FLOW WILL RETURN ON FRIDAY AS THE
STORM SYSTEM OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS LIFTS RAPIDLY NORTH INTO CANADA
WITH RISING HEIGHTS ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS SUPPORTING HIGHS
IN THE 80S. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL TRANSLATE EAST ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS ON SATURDAY WITH A COLD FRONT DRIVING SOUTH INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS. DRY PRE-FRONTAL SOUTHWEST WINDS MAY HELP BOOST
HIGHS WITH SOME POTENTIAL FOR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST ZONES AND WILL INTRODUCE SOME LOW POPS AFTER
21Z CONTINUING INTO THE EVENING AS THE COLD FRONT HANGS ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE AREA.

MWM
&&

.AVIATION...
1119 PM MDT WED JUN 4 2008

NORTHEASTERLY WIND WILL ONCE AGAIN PROMOTE STRATUS DEVELOPMENT AND
LOWERING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. WITH STRATUS ALREADY IN
PLACE ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION...AM MORE CONCERNED WITH LOW
CEILINGS THAN ANY FOG DEVELOPMENT. ANOTHER ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS
IS POSSIBLE TOMORROW AFTERNOON...THOUGH EXACT TIMING IS STILL
UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME.

SFJ
&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
NE...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR NEZ079.

CO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR COZ090.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1053 AM MDT THU JUN 5 2008

COZ090>092-KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042-NEZ079>081-061645-
YUMA-KIT CARSON-CHEYENNE CO-CHEYENNE KS-RAWLINS-DECATUR-NORTON-
SHERMAN-THOMAS-SHERIDAN-GRAHAM-WALLACE-LOGAN-GOVE-GREELEY-WICHITA-
DUNDY-HITCHCOCK-RED WILLOW-
1053 AM MDT THU JUN 5 2008 /1153 AM CDT THU JUN 5 2008/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EXTREME SOUTHWEST
NEBRASKA...NORTHWEST KANSAS AND EAST CENTRAL COLORADO.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

STRONG STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE HEAVY RAIN ACROSS EAST
CENTRAL COLORADO AND WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE INTO NORTHWEST KANSAS
AND SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY. THERE IS A
SLIGHT RISK OF LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...AND ISOLATED TORNADOS
WITH SOME OF THE STRONGER STORMS TODAY. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH
REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR NORTHERN YUMA AND NORTHWEST DUNDY COUNTIES
WHERE HEAVY RAIN FELL YESTERDAY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY FROM SATURDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NEXT WEEK. ALTHOUGH THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD
HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS CURRENTLY LOW...DANGEROUS CLOUD TO GROUND
LIGHTNING WILL BE PRODUCED BY ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT DO DEVELOP.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED.

LOCKHART

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1001 AM MDT THU JUN 5 2008

COZ092-051630-
CHEYENNE COUNTY-
1001 AM MDT THU JUN 5 2008

...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GOODLAND HAS ISSUED A SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER ALERT FOR CHEYENNE COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL COLORADO...

AT 1000 AM MDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING
A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 8 MILES NORTHWEST OF GALATEA...OR 16 MILES
SOUTH OF WILD HORSE...AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 26 MPH.

PENNY TO NICKEL SIZE HAIL...AND WINDS TO 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH
THIS STORM.

BE PREPARED TO TAKE SHELTER IN THE EVENT THESE STORMS INTENSIFY AND
BECOME SEVERE.

LOCKHART

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1041 AM MDT THU JUN 5 2008

COZ090-051715-
YUMA COUNTY-
1041 AM MDT THU JUN 5 2008

...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GOODLAND HAS ISSUED A SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER ALERT FOR YUMA COUNTY IN NORTHEAST COLORADO...

AT 1037 AM MDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING
A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 5 MILES NORTHWEST OF IDALIA...OR NEAR IDALIA...
AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 28 MPH.

PENNY TO NICKEL SIZE HAIL...AND WINDS TO 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH
THIS STORM.

BE PREPARED TO TAKE SHELTER IN THE EVENT THESE STORMS INTENSIFY AND
BECOME SEVERE.

THIS INCLUDES HIGHWAY 36 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 202 AND 223.

THIS INCLUDES HIGHWAY 385 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 215 AND 236.

LOCKHART

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1054 AM MDT THU JUN 05 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1046 AM     HAIL             KIT CARSON              38.76N 102.80W
06/05/2008  E1.75 INCH       CHEYENNE           CO   LAW ENFORCEMENT

&&

BLM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1055 AM MDT THU JUN 05 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1041 AM     HAIL             KIT CARSON              38.76N 102.80W
06/05/2008  E1.75 INCH       CHEYENNE           CO   PUBLIC

&&

BLM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1113 AM MDT THU JUN 05 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1101 AM     HAIL             KIT CARSON              38.76N 102.80W
06/05/2008  E1.00 INCH       CHEYENNE           CO   PUBLIC

&&

BLM

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1116 AM MDT THU JUN 5 2008

COZ090-KSZ001-NEZ079-051745-
CHEYENNE-DUNDY-YUMA COUNTY-
1116 AM MDT THU JUN 5 2008

...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GOODLAND HAS ISSUED A SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER ALERT FOR YUMA COUNTY IN NORTHEAST COLORADO...CHEYENNE COUNTY
IN NORTHWEST KANSAS AND DUNDY COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA...

AT 1114 AM MDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING
A STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR LAIRD...AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 37 MPH.

PENNY TO NICKEL SIZE HAIL...HEAVY RAIN...AND WINDS TO 50 MPH ARE
EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

BE PREPARED TO TAKE SHELTER IN THE EVENT THESE STORMS INTENSIFY AND
BECOME SEVERE.

THIS INCLUDES HIGHWAY 34 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 1 AND 20.

THIS INCLUDES HIGHWAY 27 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 216 AND 224.

THIS INCLUDES HIGHWAY 385 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 227 AND 259.

LOCKHART