Severe Thunderstorm Warning 151, NWS Fort Worth, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
613 PM CDT WED APR 9 2008

.AVIATION...
/00Z TAFS/
DIFFICULT FORECAST IN REGARDS TO TIMING OF STORMS OVER TERMINALS.
LIGHT SHOWERS SHOULD CONTINUE ACROSS ALL SITES DURING THE NEXT
SEVERAL HOURS...WITH A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS.

STILL EXPECT A ROUND OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TO IMPACT
AIRPORTS...ESPECIALLY METRO SITES AFTER 01Z. WILL LIKELY NEED
AMENDMENTS TO BETTER TIME APPROACH OF STRONGEST STORMS THROUGHOUT
THE EVENING.

EXPECT PERIODS OF STORMS DURING THE NIGHT. STORMS WILL FINALLY
CLEAR OUR SITES BETWEEN 13 AND 16Z THURSDAY.

MVFR CIGS WILL PREVAIL...THOUGH POCKETS OF IFR WILL BE POSSIBLE.

SCHULTZ

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 400 PM CDT WED APR 9 2008/

DISCUSSION...
400 PM CDT

STRONG SW WINDS AHEAD OF APPROACHING SYSTEM (700-600MB) HAVE
CREATED SIGNIFICANT CAP AT 700MB (10C)...EVIDENT ON 18Z FWD
SOUNDING. ACARS SOUNDINGS SHOWING CAP OF AT LEAST 8C NEAR 700MB AS
RECENT AS 2 PM. THIS HAS KEPT THE SFC LAYER UNTAPPED...THOUGH
SOME ELEVATED CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED NORTH OF DFW...AIDED BY THE
ENHANCED MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES (7-8C/KM) OWING TO WARM/DRY
ADVECTION WITHIN ELEVATED INVERSION. ACARS GIVING EVIDENCE OF
LARGE SCALE LIFT RAISING/COOLING INVERSION AT A RATE OF 25MB/HR.
AT THIS RATE...EROSION MAY OCCUR AS EARLY AS 6 PM...WITH SUDDEN
INITIATION OF SFC-BASED CONVECTION THEREAFTER.

AS ANTICIPATED...BEST TORNADIC PARAMETERS ARE TO THE WEST. 0-1KM
SHEAR IS NEAR 50KTS AT INTERSECTION OF LUB/OUN/SJT COUNTY WARNING
AREAS...SEVERAL HUNDRED 0-1KM SRH. 100MB MLCAPE VALUES IN EXCESS
OF 2000J/KG WHERE SFC TEMPS ARE WELL INTO THE 80S (SAN ANGELO...
PAINT ROCK...IVIE RESERVOIR). CERTAINLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT
FURTHER EAST WITHIN FWD PORTION OF TOR WATCH 178...LCL AOB 2KFT
WEST OF I-35 CORRIDOR. SUPERCELL NEAR ABILENE ROOTED IN THE
BOUNDARY LAYER WILL CONTINUE TO FIND ABUNDANT UNTAPPED FUEL AS IT
APPROACHES FWD CWA. AT THIS TIME...CIN SHOULD BE MORE EFFECTIVELY
ERODING IN WESTERN REACHES OF CWA.

CONVECTION SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE EVENING HOURS. A BREAK
IS LIKELY TO OCCUR OVERNIGHT BEFORE DRYLINE SURGE AND ASSOCIATED
SQUALL LINE BLOWS THROUGH CWA. LINE SHOULD BE NEAR I-35 CORRIDOR
NEAR OR AFTER DAYBREAK...INTO EASTERN ZONES MIDDAY INTO THE
AFTERNOON. TRANSITION FROM SIGNIFICANT POPS TO MINIMAL CLOUDCOVER
WILL BE RAPID IN REALITY...BUT MORE CONSERVATIVE IN GRIDS DUE TO
SOME UNCERTAINTY IN TIMING. THURSDAY WORDING IN ZFP MAY BE
MISLEADING.

COLD FRONT THURSDAY NIGHT...REINFORCING COOL AIR THROUGHOUT THE
WEEKEND...BUT PLEASANT AFTERNOON TEMPS NONETHELESS. DEBATE AMONG
MODELS AND BETWEEN MODEL RUNS ABOUT FROPA MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
FOR NOW...HAVE CHOSEN TO KEEP NORTH TEXAS IN SOUTHERLY FLOW DAYS
5-7 (MON-WED). 25

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  63  78  52  70  46 /  90  50  10   0   0
WACO, TX              66  82  53  74  47 /  70  50  10   0   0
PARIS, TX             64  75  48  69  43 /  80  60  10   0   0
DENTON, TX            62  79  47  69  43 /  90  50  10   0   0
MCKINNEY, TX          63  77  50  70  45 /  90  50  10   0   0
DALLAS, TX            64  78  54  71  47 /  90  50  10   0   0
TERRELL, TX           65  77  53  72  45 /  80  50  10   0   0
CORSICANA, TX         65  79  55  75  46 /  70  50  10   0   0
TEMPLE, TX            67  83  54  75  46 /  60  40  10   0   0

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: TXZ091>095-100>107-115>120-129.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR NORTH TEXAS...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
600 PM CDT WED APR 9 2008

TXZ091>095-100>107-115>123-129>135-141>148-156>162-174-175-101100-
ANDERSON-BELL-BOSQUE-COLLIN-COMANCHE-COOKE-CORYELL-DALLAS-DELTA-
DENTON-EASTLAND-ELLIS-ERATH-FALLS-FANNIN-FREESTONE-GRAYSON-HAMILTON-
HENDERSON-HILL-HOOD-HOPKINS-HUNT-JACK-JOHNSON-KAUFMAN-LAMAR-LAMPASAS-
LEON-LIMESTONE-MCLENNAN-MILAM-MILLS-MONTAGUE-NAVARRO-PALO PINTO-
PARKER-RAINS-ROBERTSON-ROCKWALL-SOMERVELL-STEPHENS-TARRANT-VAN ZANDT-
WISE-YOUNG-
600 PM CDT WED APR 9 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.
THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR MUCH OF NORTH
TEXAS TONIGHT.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP THROUGH THE EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT HOURS. TORNADOES...LARGE DESTRUCTIVE HAIL...AND WINDS IN
EXCESS OF 60 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE.

IN ADDITION TO THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT...HEAVY RAINFALL IS
FORECAST AND A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR NORTHERN PORTIONS
OF NORTH TEXAS. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES WILL BE
LIKELY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY.
A LINE OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING ALONG AND AHEAD OF AN EASTWARD MOVING COLD FRONT. THE SEVERE
WEATHER THREAT INCLUDES FREQUENT LIGHTNING...DAMAGING WINDS...HAIL...
AND ISOLATED TORNADOES. THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WILL END FROM WEST
TO EAST NEAR MIDDAY THURSDAY.

STRONG WESTERLY WINDS OF 25 TO 30 MPH...WITH GUSTS TO 40 MPH ARE
EXPECTED THURSDAY AFTERNOON BEHIND THE FRONT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL BE NEEDED ACROSS NORTH TEXAS THROUGH TONIGHT.

SCHULTZ

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
504 PM CDT WED APR 09 2008

..TIME..    ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0457 PM     HAIL             8 WSW BRECKENRIDGE      32.71N  99.04W
04/09/2008  E1.00 INCH       STEPHENS           TX   TRAINED SPOTTER

            RELAYED BY BRECKENRIDGE P.D.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
513 PM CDT WED APR 9 2008

TXZ116-092245-
PALO PINTO TX-
513 PM CDT WED APR 9 2008

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR...
  PALO PINTO COUNTY

AT 513 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A A
DANGEROUS SEVERE THUNDERSTORM NEAR BRECKENRIDGE IN STEPHENS COUNTY.
THE STORM WAS MOVING EAST AT 40 MPH.

CITIES IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE GRAFORD.

IF THIS STORM CONTINUES ON ITS PRESENT COURSE...WARNINGS MAY BE
NEEDED FOR PALO PINTO COUNTY BY 530 PM.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 800 PM CDT WEDNESDAY EVENING
FOR NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS.

LAT...LON 3296 9853 3295 9843 3300 9843 3300 9810
      3261 9820 3254 9857 3275 9858
TIME...MOT...LOC 2213Z 250DEG 36KT 3274 9888

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
545 PM CDT WED APR 09 2008

..TIME..    ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0516 PM     TORNADO          3 S BRECKENRIDGE        32.71N  98.91W
04/09/2008                   STEPHENS           TX   NWS EMPLOYEE

            OVERTURNED SEMI ON US 183 3MI SOUTH OF BRECKENRIDGE.
	    NUMEROUS TREES AND POWERPOLES DOWN. ROOF OFF HOUSE
	    AT CR 150 AND US 183. FOLLOWUP FROM PREVIOUS REPORTS.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
600 PM CDT WED APR 9 2008

TXZ100-092330-
YOUNG TX-
600 PM CDT WED APR 9 2008

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR...
  SOUTHEASTERN YOUNG COUNTY

AT 600 PM CDT...SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS TO 50 MPH ON THE NORTHERN
EDGE OF A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM SOUTH OF YOUNG COUNTY MAY AFFECT
EXTREME SOUTHEAST YOUNG COUNTY THROUGH 620 PM. IF THE
STORM...CURRENTLY OVER NORTHWEST PALO PINTO COUNTY AND MOVING
NORTHEAST...MOVES ON A MORE NORTHERLY TRACK...A WARNING MAY BE
REQUIRED FOR SOUTHEAST YOUNG COUNTY.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 800 PM CDT WEDNESDAY EVENING
FOR NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS. A TORNADO WATCH ALSO REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL
1100 PM CDT WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR NORTHEASTERN TEXAS.

LAT...LON 3313 9844 3296 9845 3295 9866 3304 9869
TIME...MOT...LOC 2300Z 221DEG 36KT 3296 9845

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
606 PM CDT WED APR 09 2008

..TIME..    ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0604 PM     HAIL             7 NE BRAD               32.82N  98.42W
04/09/2008  E1.75 INCH       PALO PINTO         TX   AMATEUR RADIO

            ON HIGHWAY 16 EAST PART OF POSSUM KINGDOM LAKE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
612 PM CDT WED APR 09 2008

..TIME..    ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0520 PM     TORNADO          1 E BRECKENRIDGE        32.76N  98.90W
04/09/2008                   STEPHENS           TX   NWS EMPLOYEE

            PARTIAL ROOF DAMAGE E. SIDE OF TOWN ALONG HWY 180.
            DAMAGE FROM S OF TOWN TO HWY 67.