Severe Thunderstorm Warning 124, NWS Fort Worth, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
726 PM CDT TUE APR 8 2008

.UPDATE...
UPDATE TO REMOVE SVR TSTORM WATCH #173 FROM FANNIN/LAMAR/HUNT/ AND
DELTA COUNTIES...LEFT THE REMAINDER OF THE WATCH FURTHER SOUTH GOING
FOR NOW PER FRONTAL TRENDS (SEEMS TO BE ABOUT TO STALL). ALSO...ADJUST
POPS THIS EVENING TO RELEGATE BEST CHANCES OVER SE 1/2...MAINLY S OF
I-20 CORRIDOR...THEN LIFT CHANCE POPS BACK NWD ACROSS THE REMAINDER
OF NW 1/2 OF CWA AS FRONT SLOWLY LIFTS BACK NWD. GFS LOOKS TO BE AN
OVERDONE MODEL IN THIS REGARD AND GENERALLY FOLLOWED NAM12/RUC13 MODELS
WHICH IS HANDLING CURRENT SCENARIO MUCH BETTER. WITH THIS IN MIND...ALL
POPS IN THE CHANCE CATEGORY AND REMOVED LIKELY THOUGHT LATE TONIGHT
WHICH MESHES WELL WITH MAJORITY OF SURROUNDING OFFICES.

OTHERWISE...SOME ISOLATED SEVERE POSSIBLE IN/NEAR THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
PER SHEAR AND ELEVATED LAPSE RATES WITH LARGE HAIL THE MAIN THREAT...
THOUGH LOCALIZED DAMAGING WINDS OR EVEN A BRIEF TORNADO SOUTH OF THE
FRONT (IN WARM SECTOR) CANT BE RULED OUT. DID COORD WITH SPC ON A
WATCH S OF I-20...BUT FOR NOW...ALL OFFICES AGREED THAT SVR WX WOULD
BE TOO ISOLATED FOR WATCH ISSUANCE AT THIS TIME. ALL PARTIES WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 602 PM CDT TUE APR 8 2008/

AVIATION...
602 PM CDT.

CONCERNS...STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL LATER TONIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY.

TAFS THROUGH 06Z WILL BE VFR WITH NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS.
AFTERWARD...THE STALLED COLD FRONT TO THE SOUTH WILL BEGIN DRIFTING
NORTH AND SHOULD MOVE THROUGH KDFW AROUND 15Z. APPROACHING SHORTWAVE
WILL AID TSRA DEVELOPMENT ALONG AND NORTH OF THE FRONT LATER TONIGHT
AND ON WEDNESDAY. EXPECT CIGS TO GO MVFR AROUND 06Z WITH SOME SCTD
TSRA AROUND THE METROPLEX. CONVECTION INCREASES ACROSS THE METROPLEX
TAF SITS FROM BEFORE DAYBREAK AND DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY WHEN
SEVERE POTENTIAL IS THE GREATEST. OUR LOW LEVEL AIR WILL SATURATE AS
THE FRONT ARRIVES...THUS HAVE IFR CIGS AND MVFR VIS FROM NEAR
DAYBREAK THROUGH MIDDAY.

KACT BEING SOUTH OF THE FRONT COULD SEE VCSH THIS EVENING...THEN
MORE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED AFTER MIDNIGHT AND ON WEDNESDAY.  75

PREV DISCUSSION...
420 PM CDT.
TO MAINTAIN INTER-OFFICE INTEGRITY...HAVE MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO
THURSDAY POPS. STILL UNCERTAINTY WITH TIMING...THOUGH PRECIP SHOULD
RAPIDLY END WHEN DRY SURGE ENSUES. 25

400 PM CDT.
FRONT BISECTING CWA SW-NE. SFC-BASED CONVECTION HAS BEGUN FROM
DALLAS INTO NE ZONES...THOUGH SO FAR NO SEVERE STORMS. SVR WATCH 173
IN EFFECT FOR NE AREA UNTIL 9 PM CDT. FROPA WILL REQUIRE THE
ELIMINATION OF NORTHERN END OF WATCH AREA WELL BEFORE EXPIRATION.
STORMS THROUGH MID-EVENING WILL PRECEDE THE FRONT...WHICH WILL
GRADUALLY BEGIN TO STALL. BY MIDNIGHT...ISENTROPIC LIFT ALONG
FRONTAL SLOPE MAY RESULT IN TSRA NORTH OF THE SFC BOUNDARY. TO
SIMPLIFY WORDING...GRID MIDNIGHT-TO-DAYBREAK HAS NO TEMPORAL
VARIABILITY...THOUGH RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY DURING
THE PERIOD. 850-700MB WINDS INCREASE DRAMATICALLY AFTER DAYBREAK
WEDNESDAY...SETTING THE STAGE FOR HEAVY RAIN AS WARM FRONT HEADS
NORTH. WIDESPREAD CONVECTION WOULD BE ACROSS NORTHERN HALF OF CWA
AND FOCUS WILL SHIFT NORTH DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY AS SFC WINDS
VEER. DISCRETE CELLS POSSIBLE IN WARM SECTOR...PARTICULARLY DURING
THE AFTERNOON WHEN CELLS SOUTH OF BOUNDARY BECOME SFC-BASED.
NEAR-BOUNDARY LOW-LEVEL DIRECTIONAL SHEAR MAY ALLOW FOR TORNADIC
SUPERCELLS...THOUGH ANY ROTATING STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF LARGE
DESTRUCTIVE HAIL AND DAMAGING DOWNBURST WINDS. ALTHOUGH NOT LIMITED
TO THESE AREAS...SEVERE THREAT MAINLY NORTHERN HALF.

THUNDERSTORM CHANCES MAINLY NORTH WILL DIMINISH FROM WEST TO EAST
ON THURSDAY AS UPPER TROUGH SHIFTS EAST...AND DRYLINE BLASTS
THROUGH THE AREA. STRONG DRY SW SFC WINDS WILL ENSUE...WITH COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE FOLLOWING THURSDAY NIGHT. NORTHERLY SFC FLOW WILL
PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. MORNINGS WILL BE COOL BUT AFTERNOONS
WILL BE MILD (THOUGH BELOW NORMAL). PLENTY OF SUNSHINE FRI-SUN
WITH HIGHS FROM MID 60S NORTH TO MID 70S SOUTH. AFTER THE NEXT
COUPLE DAYS...A RATHER PLEASANT WEEKEND FOR MID-APRIL. 25

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  81  63  75  66  81 /  30  40  60  60  50
WACO, TX              83  66  79  65  82 /  40  50  40  40  40
PARIS, TX             79  58  72  64  77 /  50  50  60  60  60
DENTON, TX            76  58  74  63  80 /  30  30  60  70  50
MCKINNEY, TX          79  59  74  64  80 /  40  40  60  60  50
DALLAS, TX            80  63  75  66  81 /  30  50  60  60  50
TERRELL, TX           80  62  76  64  80 /  40  50  50  50  50
CORSICANA, TX         82  66  77  67  81 /  40  50  40  40  50
TEMPLE, TX            84  67  79  68  82 /  30  40  40  40  30

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

05/25

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR NORTH TEXAS...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
737 PM CDT TUE APR 8 2008

TXZ091>095-100>107-115>123-129>135-141>148-156>162-174-175-091100-
ANDERSON-BELL-BOSQUE-COLLIN-COMANCHE-COOKE-CORYELL-DALLAS-DELTA-
DENTON-EASTLAND-ELLIS-ERATH-FALLS-FANNIN-FREESTONE-GRAYSON-HAMILTON-
HENDERSON-HILL-HOOD-HOPKINS-HUNT-JACK-JOHNSON-KAUFMAN-LAMAR-LAMPASAS-
LEON-LIMESTONE-MCLENNAN-MILAM-MILLS-MONTAGUE-NAVARRO-PALO PINTO-
PARKER-RAINS-ROBERTSON-ROCKWALL-SOMERVELL-STEPHENS-TARRANT-VAN ZANDT-
WISE-YOUNG-
737 PM CDT TUE APR 8 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT...
WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS...SOME SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL...
DAMAGING WINDS...AND A BRIEF TORNADO OR TWO...WILL OCCUR THIS EVENING
SOUTH OF INTERSTATES 20 AND 30.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL EXPAND NORTH AND IN COVERAGE ACROSS ALL OF NORTH
TEXAS DURING THE OVERNIGHT. ALONG WITH SEVERE WEATHER THREATS...
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.
WIDESPREAD STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AND
AND THURSDAY. LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS..AND FLASH FLOODING WILL
BE THE MAIN THREATS. A FEW TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE.

THE THREAT OF HAZARDOUS WEATHER WILL END BY THURSDAY EVENING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUESTED THROUGH TONIGHT.

05/

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
533 PM CDT TUE APR 8 2008

TXZ121-082300-
KAUFMAN TX-
533 PM CDT TUE APR 8 2008

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR...
  NORTHEASTERN KAUFMAN COUNTY

AT 533 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 3 MILES EAST OF TERRELL...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 29
MPH.

PEA-SIZED HAIL AND WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED FROM THIS
STORM.

IF THIS STORM INTENSIFIES...A SEVERE WEATHER WARNING MAY BE NEEDED.

LAT...LON 3281 9632 3285 9611 3284 9608 3273 9607
      3272 9608 3271 9608 3268 9623
TIME...MOT...LOC 2233Z 246DEG 25KT 3276 9621

SCHULTZ

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
601 PM CDT TUE APR 8 2008

TXZ122-123-082330-
RAINS TX-VAN ZANDT TX-
601 PM CDT TUE APR 8 2008

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR...
  RAINS COUNTY
  NORTHWESTERN VAN ZANDT COUNTY

AT 601 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 7 MILES NORTH OF WILLS POINT...MOVING NORTHEAST
AT 29 MPH.

CITIES IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE EAST TAWAKONI...EMORY AND
LAKE TAWAKONI STATE PARK.

PEA-SIZED HAIL AND WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED FROM THIS
STORM.

LAT...LON 3270 9600 3284 9608 3285 9601 3285 9596
      3290 9598 3293 9596 3299 9586 3298 9567
      3279 9564
TIME...MOT...LOC 2301Z 243DEG 25KT 3282 9594

SCHULTZ

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
659 PM CDT TUE APR 8 2008

TXZ142-156-090030-
MILLS TX-LAMPASAS TX-
659 PM CDT TUE APR 8 2008

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR...
  NORTH CENTRAL LAMPASAS COUNTY
  EAST CENTRAL MILLS COUNTY

AT 659 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 24 MILES NORTHEAST OF SAN SABA...MOVING EAST AT
18 MPH.

PEA-SIZED HAIL AND WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED FROM THIS
STORM.

IF THIS STORM INTENSIFIES...A SEVERE WEATHER WARNING MAY BE NEEDED.

LAT...LON 3131 9842 3145 9847 3151 9832 3143 9826
      3146 9819 3146 9818 3137 9810 3136 9812
TIME...MOT...LOC 2359Z 250DEG 16KT 3139 9837

SCHULTZ

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
734 PM CDT TUE APR 08 2008

..TIME..    ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0733 PM     HAIL             6 N ADAMSVILLE          31.39N  98.17W
04/08/2008  E0.88 INCH       LAMPASAS           TX   AMATEUR RADIO

            5.8 MILES NORTH OF ADAMSVILLE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
735 PM CDT TUE APR 08 2008

..TIME..    ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0735 PM     HAIL             EVANT                   31.48N  98.15W
04/08/2008  E1.00 INCH       HAMILTON           TX   AMATEUR RADIO

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
745 PM CDT TUE APR 08 2008

..TIME..    ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0744 PM     HAIL             ADAMSVILLE              31.30N  98.17W
04/08/2008  E1.75 INCH       LAMPASAS           TX   AMATEUR RADIO

            GOLFBALL HAIL IN ADAMSVILLE