Severe Thunderstorm Warning 126, NWS Fort Worth, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
726 PM CDT TUE APR 8 2008

.UPDATE...
UPDATE TO REMOVE SVR TSTORM WATCH #173 FROM FANNIN/LAMAR/HUNT/ AND
DELTA COUNTIES...LEFT THE REMAINDER OF THE WATCH FURTHER SOUTH GOING
FOR NOW PER FRONTAL TRENDS (SEEMS TO BE ABOUT TO STALL). ALSO...ADJUST
POPS THIS EVENING TO RELEGATE BEST CHANCES OVER SE 1/2...MAINLY S OF
I-20 CORRIDOR...THEN LIFT CHANCE POPS BACK NWD ACROSS THE REMAINDER
OF NW 1/2 OF CWA AS FRONT SLOWLY LIFTS BACK NWD. GFS LOOKS TO BE AN
OVERDONE MODEL IN THIS REGARD AND GENERALLY FOLLOWED NAM12/RUC13 MODELS
WHICH IS HANDLING CURRENT SCENARIO MUCH BETTER. WITH THIS IN MIND...ALL
POPS IN THE CHANCE CATEGORY AND REMOVED LIKELY THOUGHT LATE TONIGHT
WHICH MESHES WELL WITH MAJORITY OF SURROUNDING OFFICES.

OTHERWISE...SOME ISOLATED SEVERE POSSIBLE IN/NEAR THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
PER SHEAR AND ELEVATED LAPSE RATES WITH LARGE HAIL THE MAIN THREAT...
THOUGH LOCALIZED DAMAGING WINDS OR EVEN A BRIEF TORNADO SOUTH OF THE
FRONT (IN WARM SECTOR) CANT BE RULED OUT. DID COORD WITH SPC ON A
WATCH S OF I-20...BUT FOR NOW...ALL OFFICES AGREED THAT SVR WX WOULD
BE TOO ISOLATED FOR WATCH ISSUANCE AT THIS TIME. ALL PARTIES WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 602 PM CDT TUE APR 8 2008/

AVIATION...
602 PM CDT.

CONCERNS...STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL LATER TONIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY.

TAFS THROUGH 06Z WILL BE VFR WITH NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS.
AFTERWARD...THE STALLED COLD FRONT TO THE SOUTH WILL BEGIN DRIFTING
NORTH AND SHOULD MOVE THROUGH KDFW AROUND 15Z. APPROACHING SHORTWAVE
WILL AID TSRA DEVELOPMENT ALONG AND NORTH OF THE FRONT LATER TONIGHT
AND ON WEDNESDAY. EXPECT CIGS TO GO MVFR AROUND 06Z WITH SOME SCTD
TSRA AROUND THE METROPLEX. CONVECTION INCREASES ACROSS THE METROPLEX
TAF SITS FROM BEFORE DAYBREAK AND DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY WHEN
SEVERE POTENTIAL IS THE GREATEST. OUR LOW LEVEL AIR WILL SATURATE AS
THE FRONT ARRIVES...THUS HAVE IFR CIGS AND MVFR VIS FROM NEAR
DAYBREAK THROUGH MIDDAY.

KACT BEING SOUTH OF THE FRONT COULD SEE VCSH THIS EVENING...THEN
MORE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED AFTER MIDNIGHT AND ON WEDNESDAY.  75

PREV DISCUSSION...
420 PM CDT.
TO MAINTAIN INTER-OFFICE INTEGRITY...HAVE MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO
THURSDAY POPS. STILL UNCERTAINTY WITH TIMING...THOUGH PRECIP SHOULD
RAPIDLY END WHEN DRY SURGE ENSUES. 25

400 PM CDT.
FRONT BISECTING CWA SW-NE. SFC-BASED CONVECTION HAS BEGUN FROM
DALLAS INTO NE ZONES...THOUGH SO FAR NO SEVERE STORMS. SVR WATCH 173
IN EFFECT FOR NE AREA UNTIL 9 PM CDT. FROPA WILL REQUIRE THE
ELIMINATION OF NORTHERN END OF WATCH AREA WELL BEFORE EXPIRATION.
STORMS THROUGH MID-EVENING WILL PRECEDE THE FRONT...WHICH WILL
GRADUALLY BEGIN TO STALL. BY MIDNIGHT...ISENTROPIC LIFT ALONG
FRONTAL SLOPE MAY RESULT IN TSRA NORTH OF THE SFC BOUNDARY. TO
SIMPLIFY WORDING...GRID MIDNIGHT-TO-DAYBREAK HAS NO TEMPORAL
VARIABILITY...THOUGH RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY DURING
THE PERIOD. 850-700MB WINDS INCREASE DRAMATICALLY AFTER DAYBREAK
WEDNESDAY...SETTING THE STAGE FOR HEAVY RAIN AS WARM FRONT HEADS
NORTH. WIDESPREAD CONVECTION WOULD BE ACROSS NORTHERN HALF OF CWA
AND FOCUS WILL SHIFT NORTH DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY AS SFC WINDS
VEER. DISCRETE CELLS POSSIBLE IN WARM SECTOR...PARTICULARLY DURING
THE AFTERNOON WHEN CELLS SOUTH OF BOUNDARY BECOME SFC-BASED.
NEAR-BOUNDARY LOW-LEVEL DIRECTIONAL SHEAR MAY ALLOW FOR TORNADIC
SUPERCELLS...THOUGH ANY ROTATING STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF LARGE
DESTRUCTIVE HAIL AND DAMAGING DOWNBURST WINDS. ALTHOUGH NOT LIMITED
TO THESE AREAS...SEVERE THREAT MAINLY NORTHERN HALF.

THUNDERSTORM CHANCES MAINLY NORTH WILL DIMINISH FROM WEST TO EAST
ON THURSDAY AS UPPER TROUGH SHIFTS EAST...AND DRYLINE BLASTS
THROUGH THE AREA. STRONG DRY SW SFC WINDS WILL ENSUE...WITH COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE FOLLOWING THURSDAY NIGHT. NORTHERLY SFC FLOW WILL
PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. MORNINGS WILL BE COOL BUT AFTERNOONS
WILL BE MILD (THOUGH BELOW NORMAL). PLENTY OF SUNSHINE FRI-SUN
WITH HIGHS FROM MID 60S NORTH TO MID 70S SOUTH. AFTER THE NEXT
COUPLE DAYS...A RATHER PLEASANT WEEKEND FOR MID-APRIL. 25

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  81  63  75  66  81 /  30  40  60  60  50
WACO, TX              83  66  79  65  82 /  40  50  40  40  40
PARIS, TX             79  58  72  64  77 /  50  50  60  60  60
DENTON, TX            76  58  74  63  80 /  30  30  60  70  50
MCKINNEY, TX          79  59  74  64  80 /  40  40  60  60  50
DALLAS, TX            80  63  75  66  81 /  30  50  60  60  50
TERRELL, TX           80  62  76  64  80 /  40  50  50  50  50
CORSICANA, TX         82  66  77  67  81 /  40  50  40  40  50
TEMPLE, TX            84  67  79  68  82 /  30  40  40  40  30

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

05/25

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR NORTH TEXAS...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
737 PM CDT TUE APR 8 2008

TXZ091>095-100>107-115>123-129>135-141>148-156>162-174-175-091100-
ANDERSON-BELL-BOSQUE-COLLIN-COMANCHE-COOKE-CORYELL-DALLAS-DELTA-
DENTON-EASTLAND-ELLIS-ERATH-FALLS-FANNIN-FREESTONE-GRAYSON-HAMILTON-
HENDERSON-HILL-HOOD-HOPKINS-HUNT-JACK-JOHNSON-KAUFMAN-LAMAR-LAMPASAS-
LEON-LIMESTONE-MCLENNAN-MILAM-MILLS-MONTAGUE-NAVARRO-PALO PINTO-
PARKER-RAINS-ROBERTSON-ROCKWALL-SOMERVELL-STEPHENS-TARRANT-VAN ZANDT-
WISE-YOUNG-
737 PM CDT TUE APR 8 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT...
WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS...SOME SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL...
DAMAGING WINDS...AND A BRIEF TORNADO OR TWO...WILL OCCUR THIS EVENING
SOUTH OF INTERSTATES 20 AND 30.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL EXPAND NORTH AND IN COVERAGE ACROSS ALL OF NORTH
TEXAS DURING THE OVERNIGHT. ALONG WITH SEVERE WEATHER THREATS...
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.
WIDESPREAD STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AND
AND THURSDAY. LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS..AND FLASH FLOODING WILL
BE THE MAIN THREATS. A FEW TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE.

THE THREAT OF HAZARDOUS WEATHER WILL END BY THURSDAY EVENING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUESTED THROUGH TONIGHT.

05/

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
735 PM CDT TUE APR 08 2008

..TIME..    ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0735 PM     HAIL             EVANT                   31.48N  98.15W
04/08/2008  E1.00 INCH       HAMILTON           TX   AMATEUR RADIO

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
745 PM CDT TUE APR 08 2008

..TIME..    ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0744 PM     HAIL             ADAMSVILLE              31.30N  98.17W
04/08/2008  E1.75 INCH       LAMPASAS           TX   AMATEUR RADIO

            GOLFBALL HAIL IN ADAMSVILLE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
820 PM CDT TUE APR 08 2008

..TIME..    ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0818 PM     TORNADO          10 W GATESVILLE         31.44N  97.90W
04/08/2008                   CORYELL            TX   TRAINED SPOTTER

            TORNADO REPORTED ON THE GROUND SOUTH OF HI WAY 84 AND HI
            WAY CR 177.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
831 PM CDT TUE APR 08 2008

..TIME..    ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0830 PM     HAIL             GATESVILLE              31.44N  97.73W
04/08/2008  E1.75 INCH       CORYELL            TX   AMATEUR RADIO

            10 MINUTES OF GOLF BALL HAIL IN GATESVILLE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
836 PM CDT TUE APR 08 2008

..TIME..    ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0835 PM     HAIL             16 SW GATESVILLE        31.28N  97.93W
04/08/2008  E0.75 INCH       CORYELL            TX   AMATEUR RADIO

            PENNY HAIL COVERING GROUND. ON 116 16 MILES SW OF
            GATESVILLE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
839 PM CDT TUE APR 08 2008

..TIME..    ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0835 PM     HAIL             16 SW GATESVILLE        31.28N  97.93W
04/08/2008  E1.75 INCH       CORYELL            TX   AMATEUR RADIO

            GOLF BALL HAIL COVERING GROUND...CORRECTION TO PENNY
            SIZE