Severe Thunderstorm Warning 484, NWS Des Moines, IA

000 
WWUS53 KDMX 281131
SVSDMX

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
631 AM CDT MON JUL 28 2008

IAC009-027-047-281200-
/O.CON.KDMX.SV.W.0484.000000T0000Z-080728T1200Z/
CRAWFORD IA-CARROLL IA-AUDUBON IA-
631 AM CDT MON JUL 28 2008

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 700 AM CDT
FOR NORTHERN AUDUBON...SOUTHERN CARROLL AND SOUTHEASTERN CRAWFORD
COUNTIES...

AT 627 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING NICKEL SIZE
HAIL...AND DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH.  THIS STORM WAS
LOCATED NEAR MANNING...OR 37 MILES SOUTHEAST OF IDA GROVE...MOVING
SOUTH AT 25 MPH.

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
  GRAY BY 640 AM CDT...
  AUDUBON AND AUDUBON AIRPORT BY 700 AM CDT...

IF YOU ARE IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM...PREPARE IMMEDIATELY FOR LARGE
HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND DEADLY CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING. PEOPLE
OUTSIDE SHOULD MOVE TO A SHELTER...PREFERABLY INSIDE A STRONG
BUILDING BUT AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

REPORT TORNADOES...WIND IN EXCESS OF 50 MPH...HAIL LARGER THAN ONE
HALF INCH...OR STORM DAMAGE BY CALLING LOCAL LAW ENFORCEMENT AND
ASKING THEM TO RELAY THE REPORT TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 800 AM CDT MONDAY
MORNING FOR SOUTHWESTERN IOWA.

LAT...LON 4199 9511 4217 9510 4188 9465 4185 9468
      4186 9475 4181 9475 4162 9503 4178 9511
      4185 9510 4186 9515 4193 9519
TIME...MOT...LOC 1131Z 339DEG 22KT 4190 9502

$$

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000 
WWUS53 KDMX 281157
SVSDMX

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
657 AM CDT MON JUL 28 2008

IAC009-027-047-281207-
/O.EXP.KDMX.SV.W.0484.000000T0000Z-080728T1200Z/
CRAWFORD IA-CARROLL IA-AUDUBON IA-
657 AM CDT MON JUL 28 2008

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR NORTHERN AUDUBON...SOUTHERN
CARROLL AND SOUTHEASTERN CRAWFORD COUNTIES WILL EXPIRE AT 700 AM
CDT...

AT 653 AM CDT...WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED THAT THE
THUNDERSTORMS WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAVE WEAKENED...AND NO
LONGER POSE AN IMMEDIATE THREAT TO LIFE OR PROPERTY. THEREFORE...THE
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE.

HOWEVER A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR 
SOUTHWESTERN CARROLL COUNTY AND EASTERN CRAWFORD COUNTY UNTIL 730 AM.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 800 AM CDT MONDAY
MORNING FOR SOUTHWESTERN IOWA.

LAT...LON 4199 9511 4217 9510 4188 9465 4185 9468
      4186 9475 4181 9475 4162 9503 4178 9511
      4185 9510 4186 9515 4193 9519
TIME...MOT...LOC 1157Z 339DEG 22KT 4175 9494

$$

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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
315 AM CDT MON JUL 28 2008

.UPDATED 12Z/28 AVIATION DISCUSSION.

.SHORT TERM...TODAY
MUCH LIKE PAST SEVERAL DAYS...MAIN CONCERN REMAINS CONVECTIVE
TRENDS.  100+KT JET HAS EXITED GREAT LAKES HEADING TOWARD DELMARVA
AREA WHILE MCV ASSOCIATED WITH SUN MCS...NOW APPROACHING OH
VALLEY...IS MOVING ACROSS IL.  EVEN THOUGH WE HAVE LOST SOME OF OUR
KINEMATIC FORCING...THERMODYNAMICS AND HIGH INSTABILITY CONTINUE TO
DRIVE NW-SE ORIENTED MCS.  310K MOISTURE TRANSPORT/CONVERGENCE AND
STRONG FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING ARE ALLOWING MCS TO PERSIST REALIZING
1500-2000 J/KG ELEVATED CAPES.  EFFECTIVE SHEAR/SRH MORE THAN
ADEQUATE FOR ORGANIZATION AND LINGERING SVR THREAT...ALONG WITH
OBVIOUS HEAVY RAIN AND FLOODING POTENTIAL.

QUESTION TURNS TO HOW THIS WILL PLAY OUT TODAY.  CERTAINLY NOT
PERFECT...BUT NAM SEEMS TO HAVE A BETTER HANDLE ON TRENDS THIS
MORNING AND SUGGESTS MORE REDEVELOPMENT LATER TODAY.  EXPECT REPEAT
OF TODAY...QUESTION IS WHERE.  MLCAPES BECOME EXTREME AGAIN...4000+
J/KG WITH CIN ERODING BY AFTERNOON.  A LOT WILL DEPEND ON OUR
CURRENT MCS.  IF IT LINGERS THROUGH THE MORNING...NEW DEVELOPMENT
MAY BE OVER SWRN HALF OF FORECAST AREA.  HOWEVER NAM AND GFS TRY TO
DEVELOP LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE RIGHT IN CENTRAL IA...WHICH PROBABLY
WOULD NOT OCCUR UNLESS MCS FADES OR PUSHES TO THE S AND E.
CONFIDENCE NOT TOO GREAT IN EITHER DIRECTION AT THE MOMENT...SO HAVE
INTRODUCED RATHER BROAD CHANCE POPS FOR ENTIRE PERIOD.  DAY SHIFT
MAY VERY WELL NEED TO ISSUE FLASH FLOOD WATCH TOO ONCE FAVORED AREAS
BECOME APPARENT.

FATE OF MCS WILL HAVE A SIMILAR EFFECT ON TEMPS.  IF IT DISSIPATES
EARLY WE COULD GET HOT AGAIN.  PLAYED THE MIDDLE GROUND IN THIS
REGARD...MAINLY LEANING TOWARD PERSISTENCE.

.LONG TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
CURRENT WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER NEBRASKA TO NORTHERN MO WILL
CONTINUE TO SLOWLY LIFT NORTHEAST TNT OVER NORTHERN IA. WITH HIGH
LVL MOISTURE SITUATED ALONG THE BOUNDARY AT H850 AND LLVL MOISTURE
ALSO IN PLACE ACROSS IA...STAGE IS SET FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF THUNDER
ACROSS THE REGION TNT. MODELS CONTINUE TO HAVE TROUBLE HANDLING QPF
WHILE NAILING THE FORCING VERY WELL. BOTH THE NAM AND GFS SHOW AN
AREA OF INTENSIFYING THETAE ADVECTION ALONG THE FRONT OVERNIGHT TNT
WITH LLVL JET INCREASING ACROSS THE BOUNDARY. BEST CHANCES FOR ANY
HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE OVER NORTHERN IA...GENERALLY ALONG AND NORTH
OF US 30...TNT 3HR FFG MOSAIC SHOWS THAT FAR NW COULD TAKE IN XS OF
3 INCHES IN 3 HOURS...THOUGH EAST OF I35 GUIDANCE LOWERS TO 1.5 TO
2.5 ON AVG. TNT CONVECTION BREAKING JUST EAST OF THE H700 +12C
ISOTHERM. TONIGHTS PLACEMENT OF THAT FEATURE PLACES GREATEST THREAT
FOR CONVECTION OVER NORTHERN IA AND PERHAPS AREAS JUST EAST OF I35
AS WELL...AS FAR SOUTH AS I80. SOME UNCERTAINTY REMAINS BUT IF TNTS
CONVECTION IS ANY INDICATION...SOME SOUTHWARD DRIFTING OF STORMS IS
LIKELY. NEXT COURSE IS OLD DOLLY. REMNANTS OF DOLLY CONTINUE TO
ADVECT NORTHEAST WITH TIME AND WAVE TO REACH THE FAR SOUTHERN IOWA
BY 00Z WED. MODELS CONTINUE TO TAKE THE SYSTEM NEARLY DUE EAST OVER
NORTHERN MO WITH LITTLE NORTHWARD PROPAGATION. GEM/EURO BLEEDING
SOME PRECIP OVER THE BORDER THROUGH EARLY WED AFTERNOON THEN WITH
SYSTEM EXITING THE AREA SHOULD SEE A BREAK ON WED AFTERNOON BEFORE
THE NEXT WAVE ARRIVES FOR WED NIGHT AND EARLY THURS. WITH CURRENT
HOT DOME SW OF THE AREA AND CONVECTION CONTINUING TO FIRE IN A
GENERALLY UNCAPPED ENVIRONMENT...MAX TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO BE LOWER
THAN GUIDANCE THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WHILE OVERNIGHT MINS WILL
RANGE FROM THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S.  EXTENDED PATTERN THROUGH
SUNDAY SHOWS LITTLE CHANGE AS GEM/EURO/GFS SUGGEST THE CLOSE
PROXIMITY OF CURRENT QUASI-STATIONARY BOUNDARY OVER THE REGION.
CONFIDENCE ON EXACT LOCATION OF THE BOUNDARY IS LOW...GIVEN THE
POTENTIAL FOR A BACK DOOR GREAT LAKES HIGH TO MAINTAIN SOME DRYING
OVER THE GREAT LAKES BACK TOWARD IOWA. THE GFS...PER USUAL IS THE
FARTHEST EAST WITH THE PRECIP OVER THE WEEKEND WHILE THE EURO AND
GEM ARE NOT AS AGGRESSIVE WITH THE SYSTEM OVER CENTRAL IA. CURRENT
FCST IS DRY AND MAY NEED SOME ADJUSTMENT AS WE GET CLOSER TO THE
WEEKEND. TEMPS TO HOLD IN THE 80S TO NEAR 90 FOR HIGHS AND 60S FOR
LOWS.

&&

.AVIATION...28/12Z
THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO BACKBUILD ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF IA
THIS MORNING. WARM FRONT AT THE SFC AND ALOFT WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR
MORE STORM DEVELOPMENT LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND TNT. STORMS
EXPECTECD TO REFIRE FROM NEAR KFOD-KDSM-KOTM AFT 22Z THIS AFT AND
THEN DEVELOP ACROSS NORTHERN IA AFT 05Z. LOW CIGS NORTH THIS MORNING
WILL GO MVFR/VFR WITH MVFR/VFR CIGS LATER TODAY WITH NEW
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. EXPECT STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND LOW VSBYS
NEAR STORMS./REV

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IN
EFFECT UNTIL 8 AM FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST IOWA.

&&

SHORT TERM...BSS/REV
AVIATION...MS JUL 08/REV
LONG TERM...REV

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
507 AM CDT MON JUL 28 2008

IAZ033-034-044>050-057>062-070>075-081>086-092>097-291015-
SAC-CALHOUN-CRAWFORD-CARROLL-GREENE-BOONE-STORY-MARSHALL-TAMA-
AUDUBON-GUTHRIE-DALLAS-POLK-JASPER-POWESHIEK-CASS-ADAIR-MADISON-
WARREN-MARION-MAHASKA-ADAMS-UNION-CLARKE-LUCAS-MONROE-WAPELLO-
TAYLOR-RINGGOLD-DECATUR-WAYNE-APPANOOSE-DAVIS-
507 AM CDT MON JUL 28 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL IOWA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THIS MORNING MAINLY WEST
OF INTERSTATE 35 AND SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 20. THE MAIN THREAT FROM
THESE STORMS WILL BE HAIL TO GOLF BALL SIZE AND HEAVY RAINFALL.
AN ISOLATED TORNADO IS STILL POSSIBLE EARLY THIS MORNING. LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL COULD LEAD TO FLASH FLOODING EARLY TODAY. RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 3 INCHES MAY FALL YET THIS MORNING IN SOME OF THE
HEAVIER STORMS. ADDITIONAL SCATTERED STORMS WILL REDEVELOP LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT WITH SOME STORMS NORTH OF PRODUCING
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING THUNDERSTORM WINDS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGHOUT SATURDAY. AT
THIS TIME THE GREATER CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS LOOK TO BE TUESDAY
MORNING AND AFTERNOON...AND AGAIN THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THE CHANCES
FOR SEVERE WEATHER REMAIN UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME FOR THE BALANCE
OF THE WEEK.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THIS MORNING AND AGAIN TONIGHT.

IAZ004>007-015>017-023>028-035>039-291015-
EMMET-KOSSUTH-WINNEBAGO-WORTH-PALO ALTO-HANCOCK-CERRO GORDO-
POCAHONTAS-HUMBOLDT-WRIGHT-FRANKLIN-BUTLER-BREMER-WEBSTER-
HAMILTON-HARDIN-GRUNDY-BLACK HAWK-
507 AM CDT MON JUL 28 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL IOWA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE WITH SCATTERED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. THE MAIN THREAT WOULD BE LARGE
HAIL AND DAMAGING THUNDERSTORM WINDS TO 70 MPH. AN ISOLATED TORNADO
IS ALSO POSSIBLE DURING THE EVENING HOURS. THESE STORMS MAY PRODUCE
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES WITH ISOLATED HEAVIER TOTALS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGHOUT SATURDAY. AT
THIS TIME THE GREATER CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS LOOK TO BE TUESDAY
MORNING AND AFTERNOON...AND AGAIN THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THE CHANCES
FOR SEVERE WEATHER REMAIN UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME FOR THE BALANCE
OF THE WEEK.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED TONIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.

REV

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
512 AM CDT MON JUL 28 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0509 AM     HAIL             3 W WESTSIDE            42.08N 95.15W
07/28/2008  E1.75 INCH       CRAWFORD           IA   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            BETWEEN VAIL AND WESTSIDE ON HIGHWAY 30. FROM CRAWFORD
            COUNTY SHERIFF.

&&

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
516 AM CDT MON JUL 28 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0516 AM     HAIL             ARCADIA                 42.09N 95.04W
07/28/2008  E0.88 INCH       CARROLL            IA   FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

            FROM ARCADIA FIRE DEPARTMENT

&&

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
528 AM CDT MON JUL 28 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0526 AM     HAIL             1 W HALBUR              42.01N 94.99W
07/28/2008  E0.88 INCH       CARROLL            IA   FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

            FROM HALBUR FIRE DEPARTMENT VIA CARROLL EMERGENCY
            MANAGER.

&&

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
539 AM CDT MON JUL 28 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0539 AM     HAIL             TEMPLETON               41.92N 94.94W
07/28/2008  E1.00 INCH       CARROLL            IA   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
554 AM CDT MON JUL 28 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0553 AM     HEAVY RAIN       GUTHRIE CENTER          41.68N 94.50W
07/28/2008  M6.72 INCH       GUTHRIE            IA   TRAINED SPOTTER

            BETWEEN 1220 AM AND 550 AM. BASEMENT FLOODING

&&

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
558 AM CDT MON JUL 28 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0556 AM     HEAVY RAIN       LORIMOR                 41.13N 94.06W
07/28/2008  E3.50 INCH       UNION              IA   BROADCAST MEDIA

            SINCE 300 AM. FROM KCCI TV VIEWER

&&

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