River Flood Warning 196, NWS Des Moines, IA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
1245 AM CDT MON JUL 28 2008

.DISCUSSION...
WILL KEEP DISCUSSION BRIEF TODAY WITH ONGOING ACTIVE WEATHER. STRONG
TO SEVERE STORMS CURRENTLY FIRING ALONG CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW IN
NORTHERN IOWA AND WILL KEEP PROGRESSING SOUTHWARD INTO CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN IOWA THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING. SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
WATCH CONTINUES FOR MOST OF THE CWA UNTIL 10 PM. ALREADY GETTING
SIGNIFICANT STRAIGHT LINE WIND REPORTS...CAN/T RULE OUT ISOLATED TOR
THREAT INVOF BOUNDARY FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. SOME QUESTION
ABOUT CONVECTIVE EVOLUTION BEYOND THE FIRST SHOT...AS THE GFS/ECMWF
BOTH SUGGESTING ADDITIONAL MCS POTENTIAL ESPECIALLY EASTERN HALF
LATE TONIGHT. WILL HAVE TO WATCH HEAVY RAIN THREAT CLOSELY AS
CONVECTION MOVES INTO SOUTHERN IOWA...AREAS THAT CANNOT TAKE MUCH
ADDITIONAL RAIN BEFORE FLASH FLOODING OCCURS. NO FLASH FLOOD WATCH
PLANNED AT THIS TIME WITH UNCERTAINTY ABOUT AMOUNTS/LOCATION...BUT
MAY HAVE TO ISSUE LATER ONCE EVENT SHOWS ITS HAND.

BEYOND THE OVERNIGHT...SIGNIFICANT HEAVY RAIN/SVR WEATHER AGAIN
EXPECTED MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS DOLLY MOISTURE REMNANTS BEGIN
TO IMPACT THE REGION. ACTIVE WEATHER LIKELY TO CONTINUE LATE
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY WITH NEXT SHORT WAVE TOPPING THE RIDGE
FOLLOWED BY UPPER RIDGING AND MAINLY DRY AND HOT WEATHER FROM FRIDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...28/06Z
FIRST TSTM COMPLEX HAS MOVED OUT WITH NEW LINE OF TSRA FORMING ON
BAROCLINIC BOUNDARY SOUTHEAST INTO CENTRAL TO NORTHWEST AND WEST
CENTRAL IA.  EXPECT TO SEE THIS THRU MUCH OF THE NIGHT WITH WKNG AFT
10Z.  SOME FOG FORMING ARND SNRS SHUD BURN OFF.  ATMOS VERY UNSTABLE
AND WILL LKLY SEE AT LEAST SCT TSRA BY 18Z ALREADY AND A PERIOD OF
MORE WDSPRD ACTIVITY IN THE 22Z-02Z TIMEFRAME.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IN
EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM FOR ENTIRE CWA EXCEPT NORTHERN 2 TIERS OF
COUNTIES.

&&

AVIATION...MS JUL 08
SHORT...MS JUL 08
PUBLIC...KINNEY

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
1110 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2008

IAZ023>028-033>039-044>050-057>062-070>075-081>086-092>097-281100-
POCAHONTAS-HUMBOLDT-WRIGHT-FRANKLIN-BUTLER-BREMER-SAC-CALHOUN-
WEBSTER-HAMILTON-HARDIN-GRUNDY-BLACK HAWK-CRAWFORD-CARROLL-GREENE-
BOONE-STORY-MARSHALL-TAMA-AUDUBON-GUTHRIE-DALLAS-POLK-JASPER-
POWESHIEK-CASS-ADAIR-MADISON-WARREN-MARION-MAHASKA-ADAMS-UNION-
CLARKE-LUCAS-MONROE-WAPELLO-TAYLOR-RINGGOLD-DECATUR-WAYNE-
APPANOOSE-DAVIS-
1110 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN IOWA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

SCATTERED TO WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT.
THE MAIN THREATS WILL BE DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE WINDS TO 60
MPH...AND HAIL TO BASEBALL SIZE. AN ISOLATED TORNADO IS NOT OUT OF
THE QUESTION. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL COULD LEAD TO FLASH FLOODING...
ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTHERN IOWA...WHERE HEAVY RAIN FELL RECENTLY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

THERE ARE VARIABLE CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS THROUGHOUT MANY OF
THE NEXT 7 DAYS. AT THIS TIME THE GREATER CHANCES FOR
THUNDERSTORMS LOOK TO BE LATE MONDAY NIGHT...AND AGAIN TUESDAY.
CURRENTLY THE AREA IS IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER AGAIN
MONDAY NIGHT....WITH THE CHANCES FOR SEVERE WEATHER UNCERTAIN AT
THIS TIME FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED OVERNIGHT.

IAZ004>007-015>017-281100-
EMMET-KOSSUTH-WINNEBAGO-WORTH-PALO ALTO-HANCOCK-CERRO GORDO-
1110 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHERN IOWA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE WITH AN ISOLATED SEVERE STORM
NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. THE MAIN THREAT WOULD BE STRAIGHT LINE
WINDS TO 60 MPH AND QUARTER SIZE HAIL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

THERE ARE VARIABLE CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS THROUGHOUT MANY OF
THE NEXT 7 DAYS. AT THIS TIME THE GREATER CHANCES FOR
THUNDERSTORMS LOOK TO BE LATE MONDAY NIGHT...AND AGAIN TUESDAY.
CURRENTLY THE AREA IS IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER AGAIN
MONDAY NIGHT....WITH THE CHANCES FOR SEVERE WEATHER UNCERTAIN AT
THIS TIME FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED ON AN ISOLATED BASIS TONIGHT.

KINNEY/REV

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
115 AM CDT MON JUL 28 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0114 AM     FLASH FLOOD      INDIANOLA               41.36N 93.57W
07/28/2008                   WARREN             IA   EMERGENCY MNGR

            EVACUATING PORTION OF A TRAILER COURT CAUSED BY BACK UP
            OF SMALL CREEK THAT EMPTIES INTO MIDDLE RIVER.

&&

SMALL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
123 AM CDT MON JUL 28 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0115 AM     FLASH FLOOD      CHARITON                41.02N 93.31W
07/28/2008                   LUCAS              IA   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            LUCAS COUNTY LAW ENFORCEMENT REPORTS COURT AVENUE IS
            CLOSED ON THE WEST SIDE OF CHARITON DUE TO 6 TO 8 INCHES
            OF WATER OVER THE ROAD. CARS WHICH ATTEMPTED TO DRIVE
            THROUGH THE WATER HAVE STALLED.

&&

LEE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
126 AM CDT MON JUL 28 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0120 AM     FLASH FLOOD      1 E CENTERVILLE         40.73N 92.86W
07/28/2008                   APPANOOSE          IA   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            WATER FLOWING OVER THE HIGHWAY 2 EAST OF CENTERVILLE.

&&

MS JUL 08

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
129 AM CDT MON JUL 28 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0126 AM     HEAVY RAIN       4 NNW ANKENY AIRPORT    41.74N 93.60W
07/28/2008  M4.88 INCH       POLK               IA   TRAINED SPOTTER

            WATER STANDING OR LIGHTLY FLOWING THROUGH YARD
            APPROXIMATELY 15 BY 35 FEET AREA UP TO SIX INCHES DEEP.
            RAINFALL SINCE 4PM 4.88 INCHES.

&&

SMALL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
206 AM CDT MON JUL 28 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0203 AM     HAIL             WEST DES MOINES         41.57N 93.75W
07/28/2008  E1.00 INCH       POLK               IA   BROADCAST MEDIA

&&

MS JUL 08

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