Severe Thunderstorm Warning 468, NWS Des Moines, IA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
328 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2008

.DISCUSSION...
WILL KEEP DISCUSSION BRIEF TODAY WITH ONGOING ACTIVE WEATHER. STRONG
TO SEVERE STORMS CURRENTLY FIRING ALONG CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW IN
NORTHERN IOWA AND WILL KEEP PROGRESSING SOUTHWARD INTO CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN IOWA THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING. SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
WATCH CONTINUES FOR MOST OF THE CWA UNTIL 10 PM. ALREADY GETTING
SIGNIFICANT STRAIGHT LINE WIND REPORTS...CAN/T RULE OUT ISOLATED TOR
THREAT INVOF BOUNDARY FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. SOME QUESTION
ABOUT CONVECTIVE EVOLUTION BEYOND THE FIRST SHOT...AS THE GFS/ECMWF
BOTH SUGGESTING ADDITIONAL MCS POTENTIAL ESPECIALLY EASTERN HALF
LATE TONIGHT. WILL HAVE TO WATCH HEAVY RAIN THREAT CLOSELY AS
CONVECTION MOVES INTO SOUTHERN IOWA...AREAS THAT CANNOT TAKE MUCH
ADDITIONAL RAIN BEFORE FLASH FLOODING OCCURS. NO FLASH FLOOD WATCH
PLANNED AT THIS TIME WITH UNCERTAINTY ABOUT AMOUNTS/LOCATION...BUT
MAY HAVE TO ISSUE LATER ONCE EVENT SHOWS ITS HAND.

BEYOND THE OVERNIGHT...SIGNIFICANT HEAVY RAIN/SVR WEATHER AGAIN
EXPECTED MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS DOLLY MOISTURE REMNANTS BEGIN
TO IMPACT THE REGION. ACTIVE WEATHER LIKELY TO CONTINUE LATE
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY WITH NEXT SHORT WAVE TOPPING THE RIDGE
FOLLOWED BY UPPER RIDGING AND MAINLY DRY AND HOT WEATHER FROM FRIDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...27/18Z
CURRENT CONVECTIVE COMPLEX OVER NRN IA WILL CONTINUE MOVING ESE
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THE FORECAST BEYOND THE NEXT FEW HOURS IS
STILL UNCERTAIN AS FAR AS EXACTLY WHERE ADDITIONAL STORMS WILL
DEVELOP. THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP DURING PEAK HEATING ALONG AND
SOUTH OF HWY 30...AND/OR REDEVELOP ACROSS NRN IA OVERNIGHT...OR
BOTH. THIS UNCERTAINTY IN TIMING...AS WELL AS LOCATION...HAS LEAD TO
NO MENTION OF THUNDER BEYOND DEALING WITH STORMS THAT ARE ONGOING.
HAVE INCLUDED CB WORDING AFTER 00Z WITH FURTHER DETAILS ADDED ONCE
TIMING AND LOCATION BECOMES MORE CLEAR RATHER THAN ADDING THUNDER
FOR PROLONGED PERIODS WITH LOW CONFIDENCE.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IN
EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM FOR ENTIRE CWA EXCEPT NORTHERN 2 TIERS OF
COUNTIES.

&&

AVIATION...MOYER
PUBLIC...KINNEY

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
425 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2008

IAZ023>028-033>039-044>050-057>062-070>075-081>086-092>097-281100-
POCAHONTAS-HUMBOLDT-WRIGHT-FRANKLIN-BUTLER-BREMER-SAC-CALHOUN-
WEBSTER-HAMILTON-HARDIN-GRUNDY-BLACK HAWK-CRAWFORD-CARROLL-GREENE-
BOONE-STORY-MARSHALL-TAMA-AUDUBON-GUTHRIE-DALLAS-POLK-JASPER-
POWESHIEK-CASS-ADAIR-MADISON-WARREN-MARION-MAHASKA-ADAMS-UNION-
CLARKE-LUCAS-MONROE-WAPELLO-TAYLOR-RINGGOLD-DECATUR-WAYNE-
APPANOOSE-DAVIS-
425 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN IOWA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

SCATTERED TO WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THIS EVENING
AND OVERNIGHT. THE MAIN THREATS WILL BE DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE
WINDS TO 90 MPH...AND QUARTER SIZE HAIL. AN ISOLATED TORNADO IS
NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THROUGH EARLY EVENING. LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL COULD LEAD TO FLASH FLOODING...ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTHERN
IOWA...WHERE HEAVY RAIN FELL RECENTLY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

THERE ARE VARIABLE CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS THROUGHOUT MANY OF
THE NEXT 7 DAYS. AT THIS TIME THE GREATER CHANCES FOR
THUNDERSTORMS LOOK TO BE LATE MONDAY NIGHT...AND AGAIN TUESDAY.
CURRENTLY THE AREA IS IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER AGAIN
MONDAY NIGHT....WITH THE CHANCES FOR SEVERE WEATHER UNCERTAIN AT
THIS TIME FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.

IAZ004>007-015>017-281100-
EMMET-KOSSUTH-WINNEBAGO-WORTH-PALO ALTO-HANCOCK-CERRO GORDO-
425 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHERN IOWA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE WITH AN ISOLATED SEVERE STORM
NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. THE MAIN THREAT WOULD BE STRAIGHT LINE
WINDS TO 60 MPH AND QUARTER SIZE HAIL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

THERE ARE VARIABLE CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS THROUGHOUT MANY OF
THE NEXT 7 DAYS. AT THIS TIME THE GREATER CHANCES FOR
THUNDERSTORMS LOOK TO BE LATE MONDAY NIGHT...AND AGAIN TUESDAY.
CURRENTLY THE AREA IS IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER AGAIN
MONDAY NIGHT....WITH THE CHANCES FOR SEVERE WEATHER UNCERTAIN AT
THIS TIME FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED ON AN ISOLATED BASIS TONIGHT.

ALBRECHT/KINNEY

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
931 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0800 PM     HAIL             2 SW MELROSE            40.96N 93.08W
07/27/2008  E1.75 INCH       MONROE             IA   PUBLIC

&&

RUSSELL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
939 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0853 PM     HAIL             5 SE RUSSELL            40.93N 93.13W
07/27/2008  E1.00 INCH       LUCAS              IA   PUBLIC

            QUARTER SIZED HAIL REPORTED. THIRD STORM THAT HAILED AT
            LOCATION THIS EVENING WITH PREVIOUS STORMS DROPPING
            NICKEL SIZED HAIL OR LESS.

&&

RUSSELL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
951 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0616 PM     HAIL             5 W MILLERTON           40.84N 93.40W
07/27/2008  E0.88 INCH       WAYNE              IA   TRAINED SPOTTER

            NICKEL HAIL IN THE TOWN OF CAMBRIA

&&

PODRAZIK

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
956 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0616 PM     TSTM WND DMG     5 W MILLERTON           40.84N 93.40W
07/27/2008                   WAYNE              IA   TRAINED SPOTTER

            SEVERAL 8 INCH DIAMETER TREES DOWN IN THE TOWN OF
            CAMBRIA.

0645 PM     HEAVY RAIN       5 W MILLERTON           40.84N 93.40W
07/27/2008  M2.80 INCH       WAYNE              IA   TRAINED SPOTTER

            2.8 INCHES OF RAIN IN ABOUT 25 MINUTES.

&&

PODRAZIK

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
1019 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1017 PM     HAIL             SLATER                  41.88N 93.68W
07/27/2008  E0.88 INCH       STORY              IA   FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

            SLATER FIRE DEPARTMENT REPORTS NICKEL SIZED HAIL FALLING
            IN SLATER.

&&

LEE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
1035 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1031 PM     HAIL             6 N ANKENY              41.81N 93.60W
07/27/2008  E1.75 INCH       POLK               IA   PUBLIC

            PUBLIC REPORTED HAIL UP TO GOLF BALL SIZE IN ALLEMAN.

1032 PM     HAIL             ALLEMAN                 41.82N 93.61W
07/27/2008  E1.00 INCH       POLK               IA   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            LAW ENFORCEMENT REPORTS NICKEL TO QUARTER HAIL FALLING IN
            ALLEMAN.

&&

LEE