Severe Thunderstorm Warning 476, NWS Des Moines, IA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
328 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2008

.DISCUSSION...
WILL KEEP DISCUSSION BRIEF TODAY WITH ONGOING ACTIVE WEATHER. STRONG
TO SEVERE STORMS CURRENTLY FIRING ALONG CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW IN
NORTHERN IOWA AND WILL KEEP PROGRESSING SOUTHWARD INTO CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN IOWA THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING. SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
WATCH CONTINUES FOR MOST OF THE CWA UNTIL 10 PM. ALREADY GETTING
SIGNIFICANT STRAIGHT LINE WIND REPORTS...CAN/T RULE OUT ISOLATED TOR
THREAT INVOF BOUNDARY FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. SOME QUESTION
ABOUT CONVECTIVE EVOLUTION BEYOND THE FIRST SHOT...AS THE GFS/ECMWF
BOTH SUGGESTING ADDITIONAL MCS POTENTIAL ESPECIALLY EASTERN HALF
LATE TONIGHT. WILL HAVE TO WATCH HEAVY RAIN THREAT CLOSELY AS
CONVECTION MOVES INTO SOUTHERN IOWA...AREAS THAT CANNOT TAKE MUCH
ADDITIONAL RAIN BEFORE FLASH FLOODING OCCURS. NO FLASH FLOOD WATCH
PLANNED AT THIS TIME WITH UNCERTAINTY ABOUT AMOUNTS/LOCATION...BUT
MAY HAVE TO ISSUE LATER ONCE EVENT SHOWS ITS HAND.

BEYOND THE OVERNIGHT...SIGNIFICANT HEAVY RAIN/SVR WEATHER AGAIN
EXPECTED MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS DOLLY MOISTURE REMNANTS BEGIN
TO IMPACT THE REGION. ACTIVE WEATHER LIKELY TO CONTINUE LATE
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY WITH NEXT SHORT WAVE TOPPING THE RIDGE
FOLLOWED BY UPPER RIDGING AND MAINLY DRY AND HOT WEATHER FROM FRIDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...27/18Z
CURRENT CONVECTIVE COMPLEX OVER NRN IA WILL CONTINUE MOVING ESE
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THE FORECAST BEYOND THE NEXT FEW HOURS IS
STILL UNCERTAIN AS FAR AS EXACTLY WHERE ADDITIONAL STORMS WILL
DEVELOP. THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP DURING PEAK HEATING ALONG AND
SOUTH OF HWY 30...AND/OR REDEVELOP ACROSS NRN IA OVERNIGHT...OR
BOTH. THIS UNCERTAINTY IN TIMING...AS WELL AS LOCATION...HAS LEAD TO
NO MENTION OF THUNDER BEYOND DEALING WITH STORMS THAT ARE ONGOING.
HAVE INCLUDED CB WORDING AFTER 00Z WITH FURTHER DETAILS ADDED ONCE
TIMING AND LOCATION BECOMES MORE CLEAR RATHER THAN ADDING THUNDER
FOR PROLONGED PERIODS WITH LOW CONFIDENCE.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IN
EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM FOR ENTIRE CWA EXCEPT NORTHERN 2 TIERS OF
COUNTIES.

&&

AVIATION...MOYER
PUBLIC...KINNEY

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
1110 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2008

IAZ023>028-033>039-044>050-057>062-070>075-081>086-092>097-281100-
POCAHONTAS-HUMBOLDT-WRIGHT-FRANKLIN-BUTLER-BREMER-SAC-CALHOUN-
WEBSTER-HAMILTON-HARDIN-GRUNDY-BLACK HAWK-CRAWFORD-CARROLL-GREENE-
BOONE-STORY-MARSHALL-TAMA-AUDUBON-GUTHRIE-DALLAS-POLK-JASPER-
POWESHIEK-CASS-ADAIR-MADISON-WARREN-MARION-MAHASKA-ADAMS-UNION-
CLARKE-LUCAS-MONROE-WAPELLO-TAYLOR-RINGGOLD-DECATUR-WAYNE-
APPANOOSE-DAVIS-
1110 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN IOWA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

SCATTERED TO WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT.
THE MAIN THREATS WILL BE DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE WINDS TO 60
MPH...AND HAIL TO BASEBALL SIZE. AN ISOLATED TORNADO IS NOT OUT OF
THE QUESTION. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL COULD LEAD TO FLASH FLOODING...
ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTHERN IOWA...WHERE HEAVY RAIN FELL RECENTLY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

THERE ARE VARIABLE CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS THROUGHOUT MANY OF
THE NEXT 7 DAYS. AT THIS TIME THE GREATER CHANCES FOR
THUNDERSTORMS LOOK TO BE LATE MONDAY NIGHT...AND AGAIN TUESDAY.
CURRENTLY THE AREA IS IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER AGAIN
MONDAY NIGHT....WITH THE CHANCES FOR SEVERE WEATHER UNCERTAIN AT
THIS TIME FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED OVERNIGHT.

IAZ004>007-015>017-281100-
EMMET-KOSSUTH-WINNEBAGO-WORTH-PALO ALTO-HANCOCK-CERRO GORDO-
1110 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHERN IOWA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE WITH AN ISOLATED SEVERE STORM
NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. THE MAIN THREAT WOULD BE STRAIGHT LINE
WINDS TO 60 MPH AND QUARTER SIZE HAIL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

THERE ARE VARIABLE CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS THROUGHOUT MANY OF
THE NEXT 7 DAYS. AT THIS TIME THE GREATER CHANCES FOR
THUNDERSTORMS LOOK TO BE LATE MONDAY NIGHT...AND AGAIN TUESDAY.
CURRENTLY THE AREA IS IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER AGAIN
MONDAY NIGHT....WITH THE CHANCES FOR SEVERE WEATHER UNCERTAIN AT
THIS TIME FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED ON AN ISOLATED BASIS TONIGHT.

KINNEY/REV

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
1105 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1058 PM     HAIL             BOONE                   42.05N 93.88W
07/27/2008  M2.75 INCH       BOONE              IA   NWS EMPLOYEE

&&

MS JUL 08

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
1110 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1103 PM     HAIL             1 S LUTHER              41.95N 93.82W
07/27/2008  E1.75 INCH       BOONE              IA   LAW ENFORCEMENT

&&

BF

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
1133 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1129 PM     HAIL             5 N OGDEN               42.11N 94.03W
07/27/2008  E1.75 INCH       BOONE              IA   PUBLIC

            PUBLIC REPORTS QUARTER TO GOLF BALL SIZED HAIL FALLING AT
            170TH AND P70 IN BOONE COUNTY.

&&

LEE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
1134 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1124 PM     HAIL             PLEASANTVILLE           41.39N 93.27W
07/27/2008  E0.88 INCH       MARION             IA   PUBLIC

            PUBLIC REPORTS NICKEL SIZED HAIL IN PLEASANTVILLE.

&&

LEE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
1137 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1136 PM     HAIL             BOONE                   42.05N 93.88W
07/27/2008  E1.25 INCH       BOONE              IA   LAW ENFORCEMENT

&&

BF

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
1147 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1115 PM     HAIL             BOXHOLM                 42.17N 94.11W
07/27/2008  E1.75 INCH       BOONE              IA   PUBLIC

            PUBLIC REPORTED GOLF BALL SIZED HAIL IN BOXHOLM AT
            APPROXIMATELY 1115 PM. DELAYED REPORT.

&&

LEE