Severe Thunderstorm Warning 190, NWS Des Moines, IA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
422 AM CDT SUN JUN 8 2008

.DISCUSSION...
MAIN CONCERN OBVIOUSLY REMAINS CONVECTIVE TRENDS AND FLOODING INTO
TONIGHT.  PARENT LONG WV TROUGH STILL MAKING ITS WAY THROUGH THE
ROCKIES.  SHORT WV HAS MATURED ON THE BACK EDGE OF MO VALLEY MCS
WITH STRONG THETA-E ADVECTION AND THERMODYNAMIC FORCING INTO IA.
SHALLOW AND DEEP SHEAR SHOULD BE MORE THAN ADEQUATE TO KEEP MCS
GOING AS IT CROSSES IA THIS MORNING.  STRONG LOW LEVEL JET WILL
CONTINUE TO FEED CONVECTION THIS MORNING WITH PWS APPROACHING 2
INCHES AND WCDS TO AROUND 14KFT.  CONSIDERING SOIL CONDITIONS AND
REPETITIVE TRAINING OVERNIGHT SEE NO REASON NOT TO EXTEND FLASH
FLOOD WATCH THROUGH 00Z.  SUBSIDENCE BEHIND MO VALLEY SHORT WV MAY
BE ENOUGH FOR A BREAK EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...BUT GFS/NAM EMPHATIC
WITH CAPES INCREASING AND CINS LOWERING ALONG AND AHEAD OF FRONT
LATER THIS AFTERNOON.  CANNOT ARGUE WITH THIS AT ALL CONSIDERING THE
LARGE SCALE FORCING INCREASING AHEAD OF LONG WV TROUGH.  HAVE
CATEGORICAL POPS OVER MANY AREAS WITH CONTINUED MENTION OF HEAVY
RAIN AND SVR WX.  SVR PARAMETERS ARE NOT QUITE AS STRIKING AS THEY
WERE TODAY...BUT CERTAINLY ENOUGH TO MENTION A SVR THREAT.

OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES VS SYNOPTIC FRONT WILL CERTAINLY PLAY A PART IN
WHERE CONVECTION AND HEAVIEST RAIN SETS UP TONIGHT.  HOWEVER FEEL
THAT MAGNITUDE OF FORCING WILL STILL BE ENOUGH FOR POST FRONTAL PCPN
SO HAVE KEEP CATEGORICAL WORDING GOING IN SERN SECTIONS TONIGHT AND
EVEN LIKELIES INTO MON.

SHOULD SEE A BREAK MON NIGHT INTO TUE WITH NO NOTED FEATURE TO
EMPHASIZE.  WILL CONTINUE SLIGHT CHANCES OR LOW END CHANCES
HOWEVER.  NAM IS BEGINNING TO INCREASE THE SIGNAL BUT SREF/GFS/ECMWF
HAVE NOT REALLY INCREASED SCENARIO SO WILL NOT JUMP ON ANYTHING
QUITE YET.

DID NOT DEVIATE MUCH FROM TEMP GUIDANCE TODAY OR TONIGHT.  ETA MOS
SEEMS TOO WARM SO WILL CONTINUE SLIGHTLY COOLER AS SUGGESTED BY
SREF.  CANNOT ARGUE WITH MOS BLEND MON NIGHT/TUE EITHER.  NO CHANGES
TO LATER PERIODS WITH ACTIVE WX ALL NIGHT.  NEXT SIGNIFICANT
CONVECTION CHANCES STILL SEE TO BE AROUND THU.

&&

.AVIATION...08/06Z
EXPECT PROLONGED THUNDERSTORM EVENT OF VARIED INTENSITIES THROUGH
MUCH OF SUN AFFECTING FOD/MCW/ALO INITIALLY AND THEN GRADUALLY
WORKING TOWARDS DSM/OTM.  COULD VERY WELL SEE IFR OR LOWER
CONDITIONS...BUT HAVE BROAD BRUSHED MVFR FOR STARTERS WITH TIMING OF
LOWER CONDITIONS VERY DIFFICULT TO TIME.  CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE
BY LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING FROM NW TO SE.

&&

.DMX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH ALONG AND NW OF LWD-CHC-OXV-GGI LINE TIL
00Z.

&&

SMALL

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
706 AM CDT SUN JUN 8 2008

IAZ004>007-015>017-023>028-033>039-044>050-057>062-070>074-
081>084-092>094-091100-
EMMET-KOSSUTH-WINNEBAGO-WORTH-PALO ALTO-HANCOCK-CERRO GORDO-
POCAHONTAS-HUMBOLDT-WRIGHT-FRANKLIN-BUTLER-BREMER-SAC-CALHOUN-
WEBSTER-HAMILTON-HARDIN-GRUNDY-BLACK HAWK-CRAWFORD-CARROLL-GREENE-
BOONE-STORY-MARSHALL-TAMA-AUDUBON-GUTHRIE-DALLAS-POLK-JASPER-
POWESHIEK-CASS-ADAIR-MADISON-WARREN-MARION-ADAMS-UNION-CLARKE-
LUCAS-TAYLOR-RINGGOLD-DECATUR-
706 AM CDT SUN JUN 8 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR MUCH OF SOUTHWEST...CENTRAL
AND NORTHERN IOWA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

A COMPLEX OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE THROUGH IOWA THIS
MORNING. HEAVY POTENTIALLY FLOODING RAINS MAY OCCUR WITH RAINFALL
RATES WELL IN EXCESS OF AN INCH PER HOUR POSSIBLE. RAINFALL
AMOUNTS MAY REACH SEVERAL INCHES LOCALLY. SEVERE STORMS MAY ALSO
OCCUR WITH DAMAGING WINDS THE PRIMARY THREAT.

AFTER A LULL EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...ANOTHER ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS
MAY DEVELOP LATER IN THE DAY AND THIS EVENING...ESPECIALLY OVER
THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF IOWA. THESE STORMS MAY AGAIN BE SEVERE WITH
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. HEAVY RAINS MAY OCCUR AGAIN TOO
WITH FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE.

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE AREA. PLEASE REFER TO
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WEBSITE AT WEATHER.GOV/DESMOINES FOR
ADDITIONAL DETAILS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO EXPECTED ON MONDAY OVER SOUTHEAST IOWA
WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR MORE SEVERE WEATHER AND HEAVY RAINS.
RELATIVELY LOW CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE FOR TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY...HOWEVER BY AROUND THURSDAY THERE MAY BE ANOTHER
PERIOD WITH STRONGER STORMS AND POTENTIALLY SEVERE WEATHER AND
HEAVY RAINS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THROUGH MONDAY...AND AGAIN AROUND THURSDAY.

IAZ075-085-086-095>097-091100-
MAHASKA-MONROE-WAPELLO-WAYNE-APPANOOSE-DAVIS-
706 AM CDT SUN JUN 8 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST IOWA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

A COMPLEX OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE THROUGH IOWA THIS
MORNING. HEAVY POTENTIALLY FLOODING RAINS MAY OCCUR WITH RAINFALL
RATES WELL IN EXCESS OF AN INCH PER HOUR POSSIBLE. RAINFALL
AMOUNTS MAY REACH SEVERAL INCHES LOCALLY. SEVERE STORMS MAY ALSO
OCCUR WITH DAMAGING WINDS THE PRIMARY THREAT.

AFTER A LULL EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...ANOTHER ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS
MAY DEVELOP LATER IN THE DAY AND THIS EVENING.  THESE STORMS MAY
AGAIN BE SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. HEAVY RAINS
MAY OCCUR AGAIN TOO WITH FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO EXPECTED ON MONDAY WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
MORE SEVERE WEATHER AND HEAVY RAINS.  RELATIVELY LOW CHANCES FOR
THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...HOWEVER BY
AROUND THURSDAY THERE MAY BE ANOTHER PERIOD WITH STRONGER STORMS
AND POTENTIALLY SEVERE WEATHER AND HEAVY RAINS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THROUGH MONDAY...AND AGAIN AROUND THURSDAY.

SMALL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
311 AM CDT SUN JUN 08 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0234 AM     FLASH FLOOD      SCHALLER                42.50N 95.30W
06/08/2008                   SAC                IA   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            STREET FLOODING IN SCHALLER WITH PEA SIZE HAIL.

0242 AM     FLASH FLOOD      SAC CITY                42.42N 95.00W
06/08/2008                   SAC                IA   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            STREET FLOODING.

0256 AM     FLASH FLOOD      EARLY                   42.46N 95.15W
06/08/2008                   SAC                IA   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            WATER OVER ROAD ON HWY 71 NEAR EARLY. STREET FLOODING IN
            EARLY.

&&

RUSSELL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
342 AM CDT SUN JUN 08 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1200 AM     FLASH FLOOD      LIDDERDALE              42.12N 94.78W
06/08/2008                   CARROLL            IA   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            STREET FLOODING IN TOWN.

&&

RUSSELL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
408 AM CDT SUN JUN 08 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0405 AM     FLASH FLOOD      2 NE DENISON            42.04N 95.32W
06/08/2008                   CRAWFORD           IA   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            HIGHWAY 39 CLOSED BETWEEN DENISON AND DELOIT..

&&

RUSSELL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
414 AM CDT SUN JUN 08 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0414 AM     FLASH FLOOD      LYTTON                  42.42N 94.87W
06/08/2008                   SAC                IA   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            WATER OVER HIGHWAY 20 AT LYTTON.

&&

RUSSELL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
421 AM CDT SUN JUN 08 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0418 AM     FLASH FLOOD      1 SSE MASON CITY        43.13N 93.19W
06/08/2008                   CERRO GORDO        IA   TRAINED SPOTTER

            NUMEROUS STREETS FLOODED IN MASON CITY...WITH WATER UP TO
            THE DOOR OR HIGHER IN PLACES.

&&

ALBRECHT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
430 AM CDT SUN JUN 08 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0426 AM     FLASH FLOOD      CLARION                 42.73N 93.73W
06/08/2008                   WRIGHT             IA   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            STREET FLOODING IN CLARION WITH SOME STREETS BEING CLOSED
            OFF.

0426 AM     FLASH FLOOD      EAGLE GROVE             42.67N 93.90W
06/08/2008                   WRIGHT             IA   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            STREET FLOODING IN EAGLE GROVE WITH SOME STREETS BEING
            CLOSED.

&&

ALBRECHT