River Flood Warning 150, NWS Des Moines, IA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
1155 AM CDT SUN JUN 8 2008

.UPDATED PUBLIC AND AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.DISCUSSION...
HAVE TRIMMED THE FF.A BACK A FEW COUNTIES ACROSS THE FAR NORTH FOR
THIS AFTERNOON. MAIN STORMS CONTINUE TO FIRE SOUTH OF THAT
AREA...THOUGH SOME NORTHERN MIGRATION OF THE ACTIVITY HAS BEEN
NOTED.  AREAL FLOODING ONGOING MOST PLACES RIGHT NOW. BEST MOISTURE
TRANSPORT WILL CONTINUE SOUTH. SOME CONCERNS REGRADING MODEL
HANDLING OF NEXT UPSTREAM WAVE. THE STORM MAY TRACK FARTHER NORTH
TNT...THOUGH CONSENSUS REMAINS OVER NORTHERN MO WITH CONTINUED HVY
RAINFALL CHANCES THERE INTO FAR SOUTHEAST. AM CONTINUING TO EVALUATE
THE BEST PLACEMENT OF FF.A EXTENSION FOR THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.
WILL PROBABLY ADD THE SOUTHEAST COUNTIES FOR THE NIGHT AND EXTEND
SOME AREAS SOUTH OF I80 AND EAST OF I35 TO 12Z MON./REV

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
MAIN CONCERN OBVIOUSLY REMAINS CONVECTIVE TRENDS AND FLOODING INTO
TONIGHT.  PARENT LONG WV TROUGH STILL MAKING ITS WAY THROUGH THE
ROCKIES.  SHORT WV HAS MATURED ON THE BACK EDGE OF MO VALLEY MCS
WITH STRONG THETA-E ADVECTION AND THERMODYNAMIC FORCING INTO IA.
SHALLOW AND DEEP SHEAR SHOULD BE MORE THAN ADEQUATE TO KEEP MCS
GOING AS IT CROSSES IA THIS MORNING.  STRONG LOW LEVEL JET WILL
CONTINUE TO FEED CONVECTION THIS MORNING WITH PWS APPROACHING 2
INCHES AND WCDS TO AROUND 14KFT.  CONSIDERING SOIL CONDITIONS AND
REPETITIVE TRAINING OVERNIGHT SEE NO REASON NOT TO EXTEND FLASH
FLOOD WATCH THROUGH 00Z.  SUBSIDENCE BEHIND MO VALLEY SHORT WV MAY
BE ENOUGH FOR A BREAK EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...BUT GFS/NAM EMPHATIC
WITH CAPES INCREASING AND CINS LOWERING ALONG AND AHEAD OF FRONT
LATER THIS AFTERNOON.  CANNOT ARGUE WITH THIS AT ALL CONSIDERING THE
LARGE SCALE FORCING INCREASING AHEAD OF LONG WV TROUGH.  HAVE
CATEGORICAL POPS OVER MANY AREAS WITH CONTINUED MENTION OF HEAVY
RAIN AND SVR WX.  SVR PARAMETERS ARE NOT QUITE AS STRIKING AS THEY
WERE TODAY...BUT CERTAINLY ENOUGH TO MENTION A SVR THREAT.

OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES VS SYNOPTIC FRONT WILL CERTAINLY PLAY A PART IN
WHERE CONVECTION AND HEAVIEST RAIN SETS UP TONIGHT.  HOWEVER FEEL
THAT MAGNITUDE OF FORCING WILL STILL BE ENOUGH FOR POST FRONTAL PCPN
SO HAVE KEEP CATEGORICAL WORDING GOING IN SERN SECTIONS TONIGHT AND
EVEN LIKELIES INTO MON.

SHOULD SEE A BREAK MON NIGHT INTO TUE WITH NO NOTED FEATURE TO
EMPHASIZE.  WILL CONTINUE SLIGHT CHANCES OR LOW END CHANCES
HOWEVER.  NAM IS BEGINNING TO INCREASE THE SIGNAL BUT SREF/GFS/ECMWF
HAVE NOT REALLY INCREASED SCENARIO SO WILL NOT JUMP ON ANYTHING
QUITE YET.

DID NOT DEVIATE MUCH FROM TEMP GUIDANCE TODAY OR TONIGHT.  ETA MOS
SEEMS TOO WARM SO WILL CONTINUE SLIGHTLY COOLER AS SUGGESTED BY
SREF.  CANNOT ARGUE WITH MOS BLEND MON NIGHT/TUE EITHER.  NO CHANGES
TO LATER PERIODS WITH ACTIVE WX ALL NIGHT.  NEXT SIGNIFICANT
CONVECTION CHANCES STILL SEE TO BE AROUND THU.

&&

.AVIATION...08/18Z
WILL NOT BE ADDING TO THE CURRENT DISCUSSION DUE TO TIME CONCERNS...
OTHER THAN SLOW IMPROVEMENT ACROSS THE NORTH LATE THIS AFTERNOON/TNT
AS THE MAIN AREA OF THUNDER/IFR CONDITIONS BEGIN TO SHIFT SOUTH WITH
TIME. BY 12Z MON...KOTM WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE SOME MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS WITH REMAINDER OF SITES TRANSITIONING TO VFR.

PREVIOUS...EXPECT PROLONGED THUNDERSTORM EVENT OF VARIED INTENSITIES
THROUGH MUCH OF SUN AFFECTING FOD/MCW/ALO INITIALLY AND THEN
GRADUALLY WORKING TOWARDS DSM/OTM.  COULD VERY WELL SEE IFR OR LOWER
CONDITIONS...BUT HAVE BROAD BRUSHED MVFR FOR STARTERS WITH TIMING OF
LOWER CONDITIONS VERY DIFFICULT TO TIME.  CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE
BY LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING FROM NW TO SE.

&&

.DMX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH ALONG AND NW OF LWD-CHC-OXV-GGI LINE TIL
00Z WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE FAR NORTHWEST WHICH HAS BEEN DROPPED.

&&

SMALL/REV

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
706 AM CDT SUN JUN 8 2008

IAZ004>007-015>017-023>028-033>039-044>050-057>062-070>074-
081>084-092>094-091100-
EMMET-KOSSUTH-WINNEBAGO-WORTH-PALO ALTO-HANCOCK-CERRO GORDO-
POCAHONTAS-HUMBOLDT-WRIGHT-FRANKLIN-BUTLER-BREMER-SAC-CALHOUN-
WEBSTER-HAMILTON-HARDIN-GRUNDY-BLACK HAWK-CRAWFORD-CARROLL-GREENE-
BOONE-STORY-MARSHALL-TAMA-AUDUBON-GUTHRIE-DALLAS-POLK-JASPER-
POWESHIEK-CASS-ADAIR-MADISON-WARREN-MARION-ADAMS-UNION-CLARKE-
LUCAS-TAYLOR-RINGGOLD-DECATUR-
706 AM CDT SUN JUN 8 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR MUCH OF SOUTHWEST...CENTRAL
AND NORTHERN IOWA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

A COMPLEX OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE THROUGH IOWA THIS
MORNING. HEAVY POTENTIALLY FLOODING RAINS MAY OCCUR WITH RAINFALL
RATES WELL IN EXCESS OF AN INCH PER HOUR POSSIBLE. RAINFALL
AMOUNTS MAY REACH SEVERAL INCHES LOCALLY. SEVERE STORMS MAY ALSO
OCCUR WITH DAMAGING WINDS THE PRIMARY THREAT.

AFTER A LULL EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...ANOTHER ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS
MAY DEVELOP LATER IN THE DAY AND THIS EVENING...ESPECIALLY OVER
THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF IOWA. THESE STORMS MAY AGAIN BE SEVERE WITH
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. HEAVY RAINS MAY OCCUR AGAIN TOO
WITH FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE.

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE AREA. PLEASE REFER TO
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WEBSITE AT WEATHER.GOV/DESMOINES FOR
ADDITIONAL DETAILS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO EXPECTED ON MONDAY OVER SOUTHEAST IOWA
WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR MORE SEVERE WEATHER AND HEAVY RAINS.
RELATIVELY LOW CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE FOR TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY...HOWEVER BY AROUND THURSDAY THERE MAY BE ANOTHER
PERIOD WITH STRONGER STORMS AND POTENTIALLY SEVERE WEATHER AND
HEAVY RAINS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THROUGH MONDAY...AND AGAIN AROUND THURSDAY.

IAZ075-085-086-095>097-091100-
MAHASKA-MONROE-WAPELLO-WAYNE-APPANOOSE-DAVIS-
706 AM CDT SUN JUN 8 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST IOWA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

A COMPLEX OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE THROUGH IOWA THIS
MORNING. HEAVY POTENTIALLY FLOODING RAINS MAY OCCUR WITH RAINFALL
RATES WELL IN EXCESS OF AN INCH PER HOUR POSSIBLE. RAINFALL
AMOUNTS MAY REACH SEVERAL INCHES LOCALLY. SEVERE STORMS MAY ALSO
OCCUR WITH DAMAGING WINDS THE PRIMARY THREAT.

AFTER A LULL EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...ANOTHER ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS
MAY DEVELOP LATER IN THE DAY AND THIS EVENING.  THESE STORMS MAY
AGAIN BE SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. HEAVY RAINS
MAY OCCUR AGAIN TOO WITH FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO EXPECTED ON MONDAY WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
MORE SEVERE WEATHER AND HEAVY RAINS.  RELATIVELY LOW CHANCES FOR
THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...HOWEVER BY
AROUND THURSDAY THERE MAY BE ANOTHER PERIOD WITH STRONGER STORMS
AND POTENTIALLY SEVERE WEATHER AND HEAVY RAINS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THROUGH MONDAY...AND AGAIN AROUND THURSDAY.

SMALL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
909 AM CDT SUN JUN 08 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0810 AM     HEAVY RAIN       CLIVE                   41.61N 93.77W
06/08/2008  M2.50 INCH       POLK               IA   COUNTY OFFICIAL

&&

RVACHALE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
912 AM CDT SUN JUN 08 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0810 AM     HEAVY RAIN       DALLAS CENTER           41.68N 93.98W
06/08/2008  M2.50 INCH       DALLAS             IA   COUNTY OFFICIAL

            CORRECTION...DALLAS CENTER...NOT CLIVE

&&

RVACHALE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
917 AM CDT SUN JUN 08 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0825 AM     FLASH FLOOD      MASON CITY              43.15N 93.20W
06/08/2008                   CERRO GORDO        IA   BROADCAST MEDIA

            FLOODING AT AUTUMN CREEK APARTMENTS. EVACUATIONS AT ROCK
            FALLS CAMP WOODS. 12TH STREET CLOSED BY WATER PLANT.

&&

RUSSELL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
935 AM CDT SUN JUN 08 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0700 AM     FLOOD            CARROLL                 42.07N 94.86W
06/08/2008                   CARROLL            IA   EMERGENCY MNGR

            HIGHWAY 71 CLOSED AND FLOODED AT 3RD STREET.

&&

RUSSELL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
950 AM CDT SUN JUN 08 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0930 AM     FLASH FLOOD      1 N MASON CITY          43.17N 93.20W
06/08/2008                   CERRO GORDO        IA   EMERGENCY MNGR

            LEVEE FAILED ALONG NORTH HAMPSHIRE AVE IN NORTH MASON
            CITY. SUBDIVISION NEAR THE RIVER IS FLOODING.

&&

JJOHNSON

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
1100 AM CDT SUN JUN 08 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0800 AM     FLOOD            WEBSTER CITY            42.46N 93.82W
06/08/2008                   HAMILTON           IA   TRAINED SPOTTER

            BOONE RIVER WAY OUT OF BANKS...NUMEROUS ROADS UNDER WATER
            AND MANY HOMES WITH BASEMENT FLOODING...MAN HOLE COVERS
            OFF FROM WATER PRESSURE. TIME OF EVENT 5-8 AM.

&&

RVACHALE