Severe Thunderstorm Warning 181, NWS Des Moines, IA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
630 PM CDT SAT JUN 7 2008

.UPDATED 08/00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.DISCUSSION...
HAVE UPDATED ZONES TO REFLECT THE INCREASED SFC WINDS ACROSS THE
AREA. INFLOW NOW UP TO 40 MPH AT TIMES THOUGH WINDS SHOULD DROP A
BIT AFTER SUNSET...SOME GUSTS AND INFLOW SHOULD CONTINUE.

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
CONTINUED THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER ACROSS THE REGION FOR TONIGHT
WITH WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN PLACE OVER THE NORTHERN AREAS OF THE
STATE...STRONG MOISTURE TRANSPORT NORTH AND APPROACHING WAVE
ENERGY.  PARAMETERS SUGGEST THAT EARLY EVENING THREAT FOR TORNADOES
WILL TRANSITION TO HEAVY RAIN AND WIND THREAT AS THE NIGHT
PROGRESSES.

AS OF MID AFTERNOON...MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA WELL IN THE WARM
SECTOR WITH INCREASING CONVERGENCE ALONG THE COLD FRONT ACROSS
EASTERN NEBRASKA AND KANSAS. FOR NOW THE MAIN SEVERE THREAT WILL BE
FOCUSED OVER NORTHERN/EASTERN SECTIONS WHERE CAP IS NOT PRESENT.
MODELS DIFFER IN CAP EROSION OVERNIGHT WITH GFS CONTINUING TO
INDICATE THE CAP WILL HOLD ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH MUCH OF THE
NIGHT WITH EURO/NAM SUGGESTING A MUCH MORE MARGINAL CAP OVER THE
AREA. WILL LEAN CONSERVATIVE FOR NOW TOWARD GREATER THUNDER
POTENTIAL AS CONVERGENCE WEST OF THE AREA IS RATHER STRONG AND BOTH
GFS/NAM CORFIDI VECTORS SUGGEST BACK BUILDING/TRAINING STORMS A
PRETTY GOOD POSSIBILITY TOWARD 06Z/12Z ACROSS THE REGION. WITH THAT
IN MIND...
HAVE EXPANDED THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH A FEW COUNTIES FARTHER
SOUTHEAST. STILL NOT A CERTAINTY FOR OVERNIGHT TONIGHT.

WITH THE MAIN WAVE ARRIVING ON SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...WILL BE
LOOKING AT ANOTHER POSSIBLE HEAVY RAINFALL EVENT OVER SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE AREA AS ANOTHER WAVE RIDES ALONG THE BOUNDARY. AFTER
TNTS STORMS EVOLVE...WILL BE REEVALUATING WHERE THE BEST PLACEMENT
OF ANY NEW FF.A WILL BE. TEMPS TO CONTINUE WARM WITH MODEST LEVELS
OF HUMIDITY OVER THE AREA. LARGE SCALE PATTERN REMAINS THE SAME FOR
THIS PACKAGE...SO AFTER A BREAK ON TUESDAY...ANOTHER WARM AIR
ADVECTION THUNDER EVENT IS POSSIBLE WED WITH MORE WET WEATHER
THROUGH THURS/FRI. TIMING OF LATTER WEEK EVENT IS STILL IN QUESTION
BUT CONTINUE TO FAVOR THE SLOWER EURO...WHICH IS NOW KEEPING STORMS
AROUND FOR FRIDAY. GIVEN CURRENT ACTIVE WX...HAVE NOT FOCUSED
HEAVILY ON EXTENDED CHANGES AND MAY HAVE TO MODIFY TIMING OF LATE
WEEK PRECIP TOMORROW. NO MAJOR CHANGES TO TEMPS FOR THE BALANCE OF
THE WEEK.

.HYDROLOGY...
DEPENDING ON THE OUTFLOW THIS EVENING POSSIBLE THAT STORMS MAY
EXTEND A BIT FARTHER SOUTH OVERNIGHT TONIGHT...MANY PARAMETERS
CONTINUE TO COME TOGETHER FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF HEAVY RAIN AND
FLOODING TONIGHT.  300-310K MOISTURE TRANSPORT IS VERY IMPRESSIVE AS
LLJ STRENGTHENS...ALONG WITH ELEVATED INSTABILITY AND HIGH END K
INDEX.  PWS AROUND 2 INCHES...MEAN WIND PARALLEL TO FRONT AND WEAK
CORFIDI VECTOR MOVEMENT ALL SUGGEST HEAVY TRAINING RAINS.  SHOULD
AGAIN BE VERY EFFICIENT WITH HIGH WCDS.  300-310K MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE IS ALL OVER THE PLACE AMONG MODELS HOWEVER SO HAVE BROAD
BRUSHED FLASH FLOOD WATCH TO BE SAFE WITH NO FAVORED LOCATIONS.
JUST ABOUT ALL AREAS ARE JUICED AND WILL NOT TAKE MUCH TO PRODUCE
ADDITIONAL FLOODING.  QPF AMOUNTS MAY NOT BE QUITE AS HIGH AS
PREVIOUS EVENTS...BUT IT WILL NOT TAKE MUCH UNFORTUNATELY. WILL
MAINTAIN THE CURRENT WATCH...BUT EXPAND A FEW COUNTIES SOUTHEAST.

&&

.AVIATION...08/00Z
THUNDERSTORMS WITH LCL MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS IN AND AROUND TSRA.
SFC WNDS WL RMN STG FROM THE SSW GUSTING TO 35 TO 39 KTS AT TIMES
THIS EVENING.  EXPECT TSRA TO BECOME WDSPRD LATE TONIGHT WITH SEVERE
WEATHER POSSIBLE FROM THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE OVERNIGHT TIMEFRAME.
STORMS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE REGION FOR MUCH OF THE TAF
PERIOD...SLOWLY DIMINISHING FROM NW TO SE DURING THE PERIOD./REV

&&

.DMX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH TONIGHT EXPANDED SOUTHEAST TO GENERALLY
ALONG AND NW OF LAMONI-KNOXVILLE-GRINNELL LINE.

&&

SHORT TERM/AVIATION...COGIL/REV
LONG TERM...REV

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
511 PM CDT SAT JUN 7 2008

IAZ004>007-015>017-023>028-033>039-044>050-057>062-070>074-
081>084-092>094-082215-
EMMET-KOSSUTH-WINNEBAGO-WORTH-PALO ALTO-HANCOCK-CERRO GORDO-
POCAHONTAS-HUMBOLDT-WRIGHT-FRANKLIN-BUTLER-BREMER-SAC-CALHOUN-
WEBSTER-HAMILTON-HARDIN-GRUNDY-BLACK HAWK-CRAWFORD-CARROLL-GREENE-
BOONE-STORY-MARSHALL-TAMA-AUDUBON-GUTHRIE-DALLAS-POLK-JASPER-
POWESHIEK-CASS-ADAIR-MADISON-WARREN-MARION-ADAMS-UNION-CLARKE-
LUCAS-TAYLOR-RINGGOLD-DECATUR-
511 PM CDT SAT JUN 7 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL IOWA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

ANOTHER SIGNIFICANT THUNDERSTORM EVENT IS UNFOLDING WITH SEVERE
WEATHER AND HEAVY FLOODING RAINS POSSIBLE TONIGHT.

ALL FORMS OF SEVERE WEATHER COULD OCCUR INCLUDING LARGE HAIL
...DAMAGING WINDS...TORNADOES AND FLASH FLOODING. RAINFALL AMOUNTS
MAY REACH ONE TO TWO INCHES...AND POSSIBLY IN EXCESS OF THREE
INCHES LATER IN THE EVENING.

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE AREA TONIGHT. PLEASE REFER
TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WEBSITE AT WEATHER.GOV/DESMOINES FOR
ADDITIONAL DETAILS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

MORE THUNDERSTORMS ARE ANTICIPATED SUNDAY WITH THE CONTINUED
POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER...HEAVY RAINS AND FLOODING.
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES OF VARIED DEGREES REMAIN IN THE FORECAST
THROUGH NEXT WEEK WITH PEAK PROBABILITIES AROUND THURSDAY...WHICH
WILL BE THE MOST LIKELY TIME FOR SEVERE WEATHER AND POSSIBLY HEAVY
RAINS AS WELL.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL BE NEEDED TONIGHT FOR MANY AREAS AND POSSIBLY
INTO NEXT WEEK. THE MOST ACTIVE PERIODS APPEAR TO BE TONIGHT...
SUNDAY AFTERNOON...AND AGAIN AROUND THURSDAY.

IAZ075-085-086-095>097-082215-
MAHASKA-MONROE-WAPELLO-WAYNE-APPANOOSE-DAVIS-
511 PM CDT SAT JUN 7 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST IOWA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS RETURN TO THE FORECAST TONIGHT. IF
STORMS DO MATERIALIZE...THEY WOULD HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE
HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED
TORNADOES.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

BETTER CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS EXIST SUNDAY WITH THE POTENTIAL
FOR SEVERE WEATHER...HEAVY RAINS AND FLOODING. THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES OF VARIED DEGREES REMAIN IN THE FORECAST THROUGH NEXT WEEK
WITH PEAK PROBABILITIES AROUND THURSDAY...WHICH WILL BE THE MOST
LIKELY TIME FOR SEVERE WEATHER AND POSSIBLY HEAVY RAINS AS WELL.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

THE POTENTIAL FOR SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL EXIST THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AND THROUGH NEXT WEEK. THE MOST ACTIVE PERIODS APPEAR TO
BE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AND AGAIN AROUND THURSDAY.

REV

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
912 PM CDT SAT JUN 07 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0910 PM     FLASH FLOOD      KIRON                   42.19N 95.33W
06/07/2008                   CRAWFORD           IA   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            OTTER CREEK OUT OF BANKS FROM HEAVY RAIN

&&

BROCK

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
1018 PM CDT SAT JUN 07 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1005 PM     TSTM WND GST     5 SE EVANSDALE          42.41N 92.21W
06/07/2008  E60 MPH          BLACK HAWK         IA   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

PODRAZIK

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
1020 PM CDT SAT JUN 07 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0355 PM     TORNADO          1 SW LAKE MILLS         43.41N 93.55W
06/07/2008                   WINNEBAGO          IA   BROADCAST MEDIA

            FROM KCCI-TV

&&

SMALL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
1021 PM CDT SAT JUN 07 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1013 PM     TSTM WND GST     3 SE WATERLOO           42.46N 92.31W
06/07/2008  M61 MPH          BLACK HAWK         IA   MESONET

&&

PODRAZIK

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
1035 PM CDT SAT JUN 07 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1033 PM     FLASH FLOOD      3 SW DOW CITY           41.90N 95.54W
06/07/2008                   CRAWFORD           IA   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            WATER COVERING HIGHWAY 30 FROM 1.5 MILES SOUTHWEST OF DOW
            CITY TO 3 MILES SOUTHWEST OF DOW CITY. STATE DOT WILL
            BARRACADE ROADWAY.

&&

STEACHOU

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
1107 PM CDT SAT JUN 07 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0720 PM     TSTM WND DMG     GOODELL                 42.92N 93.61W
06/07/2008                   HANCOCK            IA   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            LARGE TREE BRANCH DOWN ON WIRE TO HOUSE CAUSING SMOKE

0720 PM     TSTM WND GST     1 N GOODELL             42.94N 93.61W
06/07/2008  E0 MPH           HANCOCK            IA   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            TREE DOWN OVER ROAD

0817 PM     FLASH FLOOD      3 N MASON CITY          43.19N 93.20W
06/07/2008                   CERRO GORDO        IA   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            WATER OVER THE ROAD AT CORNER OF B15 AND PARTRIDGE AVE.
            DEBRIS ON THE ROAD.

&&

BMOYER