River Flood Warning 143, NWS Des Moines, IA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
422 AM CDT SUN JUN 8 2008

.DISCUSSION...
MAIN CONCERN OBVIOUSLY REMAINS CONVECTIVE TRENDS AND FLOODING INTO
TONIGHT.  PARENT LONG WV TROUGH STILL MAKING ITS WAY THROUGH THE
ROCKIES.  SHORT WV HAS MATURED ON THE BACK EDGE OF MO VALLEY MCS
WITH STRONG THETA-E ADVECTION AND THERMODYNAMIC FORCING INTO IA.
SHALLOW AND DEEP SHEAR SHOULD BE MORE THAN ADEQUATE TO KEEP MCS
GOING AS IT CROSSES IA THIS MORNING.  STRONG LOW LEVEL JET WILL
CONTINUE TO FEED CONVECTION THIS MORNING WITH PWS APPROACHING 2
INCHES AND WCDS TO AROUND 14KFT.  CONSIDERING SOIL CONDITIONS AND
REPETITIVE TRAINING OVERNIGHT SEE NO REASON NOT TO EXTEND FLASH
FLOOD WATCH THROUGH 00Z.  SUBSIDENCE BEHIND MO VALLEY SHORT WV MAY
BE ENOUGH FOR A BREAK EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...BUT GFS/NAM EMPHATIC
WITH CAPES INCREASING AND CINS LOWERING ALONG AND AHEAD OF FRONT
LATER THIS AFTERNOON.  CANNOT ARGUE WITH THIS AT ALL CONSIDERING THE
LARGE SCALE FORCING INCREASING AHEAD OF LONG WV TROUGH.  HAVE
CATEGORICAL POPS OVER MANY AREAS WITH CONTINUED MENTION OF HEAVY
RAIN AND SVR WX.  SVR PARAMETERS ARE NOT QUITE AS STRIKING AS THEY
WERE TODAY...BUT CERTAINLY ENOUGH TO MENTION A SVR THREAT.

OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES VS SYNOPTIC FRONT WILL CERTAINLY PLAY A PART IN
WHERE CONVECTION AND HEAVIEST RAIN SETS UP TONIGHT.  HOWEVER FEEL
THAT MAGNITUDE OF FORCING WILL STILL BE ENOUGH FOR POST FRONTAL PCPN
SO HAVE KEEP CATEGORICAL WORDING GOING IN SERN SECTIONS TONIGHT AND
EVEN LIKELIES INTO MON.

SHOULD SEE A BREAK MON NIGHT INTO TUE WITH NO NOTED FEATURE TO
EMPHASIZE.  WILL CONTINUE SLIGHT CHANCES OR LOW END CHANCES
HOWEVER.  NAM IS BEGINNING TO INCREASE THE SIGNAL BUT SREF/GFS/ECMWF
HAVE NOT REALLY INCREASED SCENARIO SO WILL NOT JUMP ON ANYTHING
QUITE YET.

DID NOT DEVIATE MUCH FROM TEMP GUIDANCE TODAY OR TONIGHT.  ETA MOS
SEEMS TOO WARM SO WILL CONTINUE SLIGHTLY COOLER AS SUGGESTED BY
SREF.  CANNOT ARGUE WITH MOS BLEND MON NIGHT/TUE EITHER.  NO CHANGES
TO LATER PERIODS WITH ACTIVE WX ALL NIGHT.  NEXT SIGNIFICANT
CONVECTION CHANCES STILL SEE TO BE AROUND THU.

&&

.AVIATION...08/06Z
EXPECT PROLONGED THUNDERSTORM EVENT OF VARIED INTENSITIES THROUGH
MUCH OF SUN AFFECTING FOD/MCW/ALO INITIALLY AND THEN GRADUALLY
WORKING TOWARDS DSM/OTM.  COULD VERY WELL SEE IFR OR LOWER
CONDITIONS...BUT HAVE BROAD BRUSHED MVFR FOR STARTERS WITH TIMING OF
LOWER CONDITIONS VERY DIFFICULT TO TIME.  CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE
BY LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING FROM NW TO SE.

&&

.DMX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH ALONG AND NW OF LWD-CHC-OXV-GGI LINE TIL
00Z.

&&

SMALL

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
414 AM CDT SUN JUN 08 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0414 AM     FLASH FLOOD      LYTTON                  42.42N 94.87W
06/08/2008                   SAC                IA   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            WATER OVER HIGHWAY 20 AT LYTTON.

&&

RUSSELL

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
430 AM CDT SUN JUN 08 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0426 AM     FLASH FLOOD      CLARION                 42.73N 93.73W
06/08/2008                   WRIGHT             IA   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            STREET FLOODING IN CLARION WITH SOME STREETS BEING CLOSED
            OFF.

0426 AM     FLASH FLOOD      EAGLE GROVE             42.67N 93.90W
06/08/2008                   WRIGHT             IA   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            STREET FLOODING IN EAGLE GROVE WITH SOME STREETS BEING
            CLOSED.

&&

ALBRECHT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
732 AM CDT SUN JUN 08 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0730 AM     FLASH FLOOD      2 NW GRANGER            41.78N 93.85W
06/08/2008                   DALLAS             IA   NWS EMPLOYEE

            ALL CREEKS AND STREAMS OUT OF THEIR BANKS WITH NUMEROUS
            COUNTY GRAVEL ROADS WITH WATER FLOWING OVER THEM. SOME
            ROADS COVERED TO A FOOT OR MORE WITH WATER.

&&

CCOGIL

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
845 AM CDT SUN JUN 08 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0810 AM     FLASH FLOOD      1 W ADEL                41.61N 94.05W
06/08/2008                   DALLAS             IA   EMERGENCY MNGR

            PANTHER CREEK BANK FULL...ROADS IN AREA ARE
            FLOODING...P58 SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 44

&&

RVACHALE