Storm Warning 198, NWS Anchorage, AK

000 
FZAK52 PAFC 021223
CWFALU

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 AM AKST TUE DEC 2 2008

MARINE FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE
ALASKA PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS UP TO 100 NM OUT.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ199-030300-
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...

A 967 MB LOW 400 NM SOUTH OF SEGUAM ISLAND MOVES 375 NM SOUTH OF
DUTCH HARBOR WEDNESDAY MORNING AND DISSIPATES. A 966 MB LOW DEVELOPS
150 NM SOUTHWEST OF DUTCH HARBOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND REMAINS NEARLY
STATIONARY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN PRESSURE. 
AN ASSOCIATED FRONT WILL ENTER THE EASTERN BERING SEA ON WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND PASS THROUGH SAINT PAUL ISLAND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. 

$$

PKZ150-030300-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA SITKINAK TO CASTLE
CAPE
400 AM AKST TUE DEC 2 2008

...GALE WARNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...E WIND 45 KT BECOMING SE 35 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
24 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.TONIGHT...E WIND 25 KT INCREASING TO 35 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 19
FT. RAIN.
.WED...E WIND 45 KT. SEAS 23 FT. RAIN.
.WED NIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 20 FT. 
.THU...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.FRI...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.SAT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT.  

$$

PKZ155-030300-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA CASTLE CAPE TO CAPE
SARICHEF
400 AM AKST TUE DEC 2 2008

...GALE WARNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...E WIND 45 KT DIMINISHING TO SE 30 KT BY MIDDAY. SEAS
28 FT SUBSIDING TO 22 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.TONIGHT...E WIND 45 KT. SEAS 25 FT. RAIN.
.WED...E WIND 45 KT BECOMING S 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 26 FT.
RAIN.
.WED NIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 20 FT. 
.THU...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.FRI...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.SAT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT.  

$$

PKZ160-030300-
BRISTOL BAY WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO PORT HEIDEN
400 AM AKST TUE DEC 2 2008

...GALE WARNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...E WIND 35 KT INCREASING TO 45 KT BY MIDDAY. SEAS 14 FT. 
SNOW AND RAIN. 
.TONIGHT...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 11 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.WED...E WIND 45 KT. SEAS 13 FT. RAIN.
.WED NIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.THU...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.FRI...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SAT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

PKZ165-030300-
PORT HEIDEN TO CAPE SARICHEF
400 AM AKST TUE DEC 2 2008

...GALE WARNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...E WIND 45 KT DIMINISHING TO 35 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
13 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.TONIGHT...E WIND 30 KT INCREASING TO 40 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
13 FT. RAIN.
.WED...E WIND 40 KT BECOMING SE 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 12 FT.
RAIN.
.WED NIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.THU AND FRI...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SAT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  

$$

PKZ180-030300-
SOUTHWEST ALASKA WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO DALL POINT
400 AM AKST TUE DEC 2 2008

...GALE WARNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 40 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 10 FT. HEAVY
FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 10 FT. SNOW AND
RAIN. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY N OF NUNIVAK ISLAND. 
.WED...NE WIND 40 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 12 FT. SNOW AND RAIN.
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY N OF NUNIVAK ISLAND. 
.WED NIGHT...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 10 FT. 
.THU...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 8 FT. 
.FRI AND SAT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 9 FT. 

$$

PKZ170-030300-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI
400 AM AKST TUE DEC 2 2008

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...E WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO SE 25 KT BY LATE MORNING...THEN
INCREASING TO E 35 KT LATE AFTERNOON PACIFIC SIDE. SEAS 27 FT 
PACIFIC SIDE...16 FT BERING SIDE. RAIN. 
.TONIGHT...E WIND 45 KT DIMINISHING TO 35 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
25 FT PACIFIC SIDE...16 FT BERING SIDE. RAIN.
.WED...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 19 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.WED NIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.THU...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.FRI...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.SAT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT.  

$$

PKZ171-030300-
UNALASKA BAY
400 AM AKST TUE DEC 2 2008

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TODAY...E WIND 25 KT. GUSTS TO 35 KT THROUGH MID MORNING. SEAS 6 
FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.TONIGHT...E WIND 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN.
.WED...E WIND 25 KT BECOMING SE 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 5 FT.
RAIN SHOWERS. 
.WED NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.THU...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SAT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ172-030300-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS NIKOLSKI TO ADAK
400 AM AKST TUE DEC 2 2008

...GALE WARNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 22 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 35 KT INCREASING TO 45 KT BY MIDNIGHT. SEAS
22 FT. RAIN.
.WED...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 20 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.WED NIGHT...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.THU...N WIND 40 KT. SEAS 21 FT. 
.FRI AND SAT...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 21 FT.   

$$

PKZ175-030300-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS ADAK TO KISKA
400 AM AKST TUE DEC 2 2008

...GALE WARNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 45 KT. SEAS 27 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.TONIGHT AND WED...N WIND 45 KT. SEAS 27 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.WED NIGHT THROUGH FRI...N WIND 45 KT. SEAS 28 FT. 
.SAT...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 25 FT.  

$$

PKZ176-030300-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS KISKA TO ATTU
400 AM AKST TUE DEC 2 2008

...STORM WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...N WIND 50 KT. SEAS 27 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.TONIGHT AND WED...N WIND 45 KT. SEAS 25 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.WED NIGHT THROUGH FRI...N WIND 45 KT. SEAS 25 FT.  
.SAT...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 21 FT.  

$$

PKZ185-030300-
ST MATTHEW ISLAND WATERS
400 AM AKST TUE DEC 2 2008

...STORM WARNING WEDNESDAY...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 15 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 45 KT. SEAS 16 FT. SNOW. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.WED...NE WIND 50 KT. SEAS 18 FT. SNOW AND RAIN. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.WED NIGHT AND THU...NE WIND 50 KT. SEAS 21 FT. 
.FRI...NE WIND 45 KT. SEAS 21 FT. 
.SAT...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 17 FT.  

$$

PKZ179-030300-
PRIBILOF ISLANDS NEAR-SHORE WATERS
400 AM AKST TUE DEC 2 2008

...GALE WARNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...E WIND 45 KT. SEAS 19 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 35 KT INCREASING TO 45 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
16 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.WED...NE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 16 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.WED NIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.THU...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.FRI...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.SAT...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT.  

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
230 PM AKST MON DEC 1 2008

.MODEL DISCUSSION...MODEL INITIALIZATIONS ON SYNOPTIC SCALE SURFACE
FEATURES WERE REASONABLE. THE NGM 850 MB TEMPS INITIALIZED ABOUT 2C
TOO WARM. MODEL FORECAST TRENDS ARE IN GENERALLY GOOD AGREEMENT AND
REASONABLE. THE EXCEPTION WOULD BE HOW FAR EAST THE GFS MOVES THE
EAST ALEUTIAN/WEST AK PEN FRONTAL WAVE WED. THE ECMWF KEEPS THE WAVE
FURTHER WEST WHICH SEEMS MORE REASONABLE AND IS IN KEEPING WITH THE
CURRENT PATTERN. THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS AND ENSEMBLE MEAN SUPPORT
THE ECMWF POSITION.

.UPPER LEVELS (500 MB)...THE PATTERN SHOULD NOT CHANGE MUCH THROUGH
WED AS GENERALLY CUT-OFF LOW CENTER SOUTH OF THE ALEUTIANS AND RIDGE
OVER THE GULF HOLD UNDERGO LITTLE MOVEMENT. BY FRI THE RIDGE AXIS HAS
SHIFTED TO THE EASTERN GULF OF ALASKA AND THE LOW CENTER MOVED TO THE
EASTERN ALEUTIANS. AT THIS TIME THERE IS ALSO A FAIRLY HIGH AMPLITUDE
RIDGE EVIDENT EXTENDING NORTH ALONG 160E FROM THE NORTH PACIFIC TO
OVER THE KAMCHATKA PENINSULA.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...
.EAST...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MAINLAND WILL CONTINUE TO ENHANCE
DRAINAGE/GAP WINDS AND ALLOW FROM COLD TEMPS THROUGH TONIGHT. THE
RIDGE SHIFTS EAST INTO CANADA TUE/WED AND ALLOWS MOISTURE ASSOCIATED
WITH THE LOW COMPLEX NEAR THE ALEUTIANS TO SPREAD INTO THE GULF AND
SOUTHERN MAINLAND AND MODERATE TEMPERATURES. THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE
INTO FRI AS THE UPPER TROUGH SHIFTS EAST AND SETS UP SOUTHERLY WINDS
ALOFT OVER THE GULF AND SOUTHCENTRAL.

.WEST...
ALEUTIANS/AK PEN/BERING SEA...LOW COMPLEX IN THE VICINITY OF THE
ALEUTIANS WILL CONTINUE VERY WIND CONDITIONS OVER MUCH OVER THE
ALEUTIANS AND AK PEN FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. BLIZZARD CONDITIONS
OVER SAINT PAUL ISLAND SHOULD DIMINISH TONIGHT AS SNOW WITH THE
ASSOCIATED FRONT DIMINISHES. CONDITIONS ARE LESS LIKELY TO REDEVELOP
AS TEMPS WARM WED AND THU. WIND WARNING CONDITIONS OVER THE WESTERN
ALEUTIANS SHOULD DIMINISH OVERNIGHT AS LOW CENTER SOUTH OF ADAK
DRIFTS SW AND WEAKENS. WARNING LEVEL WINDS MAY DEVELOP TUE NIGHT AS
NEXT WAVE REPLACES THIS CENTER AND FRONTAL TROUGH ARCHES NW. WINDS
OVER THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS APPEAR TO HAVE PEAKED AT WARNING LEVELS
THIS MORNING AND SHOULD BE TRENDING DOWN.

.SW MAINLAND...SAT PICTURE SHOWS THE CIRRUS SHIELD MOVING INTO THE SW
MAINLAND IN ADVANCE OF FRONTAL TROUGH THIS MORNING. TEMPERATURES
SHOULD CONTINUE TO MODERATE WITH WARM ADVECTION AND AS CLOUDS THICKEN
THROUGHOUT THE REGION. PRECIPITATION WILL BE MIXED IN BRISTOL BAY TUE
NIGHT AND POSSIBLY MIXED ON THE DELTA WED. PRECIPITATION SHOULD
REMAIN FROZEN OVER THE KUSKOKWIM VALLEY AT LEAST THROUGH WED. MODELS
CONTINUE TO INDICATE WARMING TEMPS THROUGH THU AND FRI...SO MAY SEE
MIXED OVER THE KUSKOKWIM AND DELTA AND RAIN BRISTOL BAY DURING THESE
TIME FRAMES.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...BLIZZARD WARNING 195. HIGH WIND WARNINGS 185 AND 191
DIMINISHING.
MARINE...STORMS 175 176.
         GALES  129 130 138 140 150 155 160 165 171 179 180 185.

FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

RMC DEC 08